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FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 260850 AFDILM 

FXUS62 KILM 260850
AFDILM [HEAD]

National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 3:50am EST Wed Feb 26 2020 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
350 AM EST WED FEB 26 2020 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Warm and humid air will continue today before a cold front reaches the coast this evening. Much drier and cooler air will build in overnight and Thursday as Canadian high pressure pushes in. A dry cold front will move across the Carolinas Friday. Warm, moist air returns Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
REACHES THE COAST THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
IN. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY. WARM,
MOIST AIR RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Near term (through Thursday)… low stratus and fog cover most of the area this morning and should take several hours after sunrise to lift. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued along the I-95 corridor extending down into Williamsburg County, SC. We'll watch areas east of I-95 and also the beaches to see if the advisory needs to be expanded. 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS AND FOG COVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TO LIFT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR EXTENDING DOWN INTO
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY, SC. WE`LL WATCH AREAS EAST OF I-95 AND ALSO
THE BEACHES TO SEE IF THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED. [DISC]

Our airmass is quite warm with 850 mb temps near +10°C, almost at the 90th percentile value for this time of year. Dry mid-levels this morning should allow enough insolation in to lift the low stratus and let temperatures rise to near 70° by early afternoon. 

OUR AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR +10C, ALMOST AT THE
90TH PERCENTILE VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY MID-LEVELS THIS
MORNING SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH INSOLATION IN TO LIFT THE LOW STRATUS
AND LET TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. [DISC]

An upper trough digging into the southern plains will sweep east and across the southern Appalachians and mid-Atlantic states tonight. Weak low pressure located across the central Appalachians this morning will begin to deepen quickly this afternoon and this evening as the upper trough approaches. A cold front extending south of the low will sweep east and across the eastern Carolinas this evening, ushering in a much cooler and drier airmass on gusty west winds. GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] and NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] forecast soundings show the potential of 30+ MPH wind gusts overnight during the post-frontal cold advection. Showers should precede the front, with chances for measurable rain expected to run 50–80%, highest near the coast. 

AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWEEP EAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE
LOW WILL SWEEP EAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING,
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ON GUSTY WEST WINDS. GFS
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF 30+ MPH WIND GUSTS
OVERNIGHT DURING THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. SHOWERS SHOULD
PRECEDE THE FRONT, WITH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN EXPECTED TO RUN
50-80 PERCENT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. [DISC]

Canadian air will build into the Carolinas late tonight and Thursday. With clearing skies tonight's lows should fall into the lower 40s with Thursday's highs expected to reach 52–55. 

CANADIAN AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT`S LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WITH THURSDAY`S HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH 52-55. [DISC]

Short term (Thursday night through Friday night)… cold, dry air advection will continue into Thursday night. Breezy conditions during the day will decrease slightly as the low over southern Quebec continues to move off to the NE. This will keep winds near the surface around 5 knots [6 mph] and maintain a mixed surface layer keeping temperatures right around freezing. During the day on Friday, clouds will develop across the area as a weak shortwave dives across southern Appalachia. Limited moisture in the low-levels will limit precipitation chances, but high temperatures will struggle to make it into the low-50s as a result. Cloudiness will continue Friday night as a second shortwave follows a similar path possibly keeping temperatures above freezing on Saturday morning. 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD, DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE AROUND 5 KNOTS AND MAINTAIN A MIXED SFC LAYER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DIVES ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIA. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS
WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW-50S AS A RESULT. CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH
POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY
MORNING. [DISC]

Long term (Saturday through Tuesday)… clouds will clear during the day on Saturday as the shortwave moves off to the east by Saturday afternoon. The upper-level trough providing below-normal conditions and dry air will slide off to the east as surface high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. During the day on Sunday, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern with moderating temperatures to near-normal. High pressure continues to move eastward on Monday and on Monday evening, with the high pressure offshore, southerly flow will return with warm, humid conditions flooding back into the area. A lack of deep-layer moisture and accompanying lift will keep rain chances near zero however. We are likely to see an increase in cloud cover on Tuesday with a chance of rain inland as low pressure over the Central US pushes a warm front over the southeast US models differ on the availability of moisture and intensity of the low pressure system and this will greatly affect our rain chances. A much better chance of rain (an possibly a few rumbles of thunder) with an approaching cold front on Wednesday. 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PROVIDING BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR WILL SLIDE
OFF TO THE EAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR-NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND ON
MONDAY EVENING, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN WITH WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS FLOODING BACK INTO THE
AREA. A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND ACCOMPANYING LIFT WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO HOWEVER. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN INLAND
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US PUSHES A WARM FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THIS WILL GREATLY
AFFECT OUR RAIN CHANCES. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN (AN
POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER) WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. [DISC]

Aviation (06Z [1am EST] Wednesday through Sunday)… rich low level moisture will yield IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings and visibilities in most locations this morning. It will probably take until 14–15Z [9–10am EST] for conditions to improve with clearing visibility and ceilings rising to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]. After a few hours of relatively good flying conditions this afternoon, convective showers ahead of a cold front should overspread the area late in the day, mainly after 21Z [4pm EST]. The cold front will push off the coast this evening around 00Z [7pm EST], followed by clearing skies and gusty west winds overnight into Thursday. 

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. IT WILL PROBABLY
TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WITH CLEARING
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS RISING TO MVFR. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
RELATIVELY GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY, MAINLY AFTER 21Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND
GUSTY WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. [AVIA]

Extended outlook. VFR [Visual Flight Rules]

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. [DISC]

Marine. Weak low pressure across the central Appalachians is producing a light south to southwest wind across the Carolinas this morning. Increasing moisture has led to the development of sea fog, some of which should become dense this morning through early this afternoon. NWS [National Weather Service] CHS [Charleston SC] informed us of a Charleston pilot boat report of dense sea fog extending out to 15 miles from the coast, so our marine Dense Fog Advisory has been extended down to the S Santee River. 

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS PRODUCING A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING.
INCREASING MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG, SOME OF
WHICH SHOULD BECOME DENSE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
NWS CHS INFORMED US OF A CHARLESTON PILOT BOAT REPORT OF DENSE
SEA FOG EXTENDING OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE COAST, SO OUR MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED DOWN TO THE S SANTEE RIVER. [AVIA]

The central Appalachian low will begin to deepen late this afternoon. A cold front extending south of the low will sweep through the eastern Carolinas and offshore this evening, accompanied by showers. West winds behind this front will increase to 20–25 kt [23–29 mph] with gusts near gale force possible overnight. A Small Craft Advisory is also being issued with this forecast to cover the threat posed by increasing winds and seas tonight. Canadian air will build into the Carolinas Thursday with breezy offshore winds continuing throughout the day. 

THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS. WEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS ALSO BEING ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST TO COVER THE THREAT
POSED BY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT. CANADIAN AIR WILL BUILD
INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. [AVI2]

Breezy conditions on Thursday night will relax as low pressure to the NE continues to track away from the area. Seas near Small Craft Advisory levels will decrease as a result by Friday morning. On Friday night, high pressure will build over the Gulf of Mexico while a shortwave trough moves over the area leading to a brief surge in offshore wind speeds (15–20 knots [17–23 mph]) and associated significant wave heights. Conditions could be hazardous to small craft, but with the surge occurring in such a short duration, seas are likely to peak at 3–5 feet. Conditions improve after this as high pressure dominates the weather pattern into Monday. Southerly winds increase on Tuesday as the high pressure moves off the US East Coast. 

BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NE CONTINUES TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA. SEAS NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WILL DECREASE AS A RESULT BY FRIDAY MORNING. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA LEADING TO A BRIEF SURGE IN
OFFSHORE WIND SPEEDS (15-20 KNOTS) AND ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS. CONDITIONS COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, BUT WITH THE
SURGE OCCURRING IN SUCH A SHORT DURATION, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AT
3-5 FEET. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE US EAST COAST. [AVI2]

ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. [WARN]

Synopsis: ILM; Near Term: TRA; Short Term: 21; Long Term: 21; Aviation: TRA; Marine: TRA/21 

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/21 [CRED]

Point Forecast

Wilmington NC

26 Feb 3:53am EST

Overnight Scattered showers. Patchy fog before 5am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 58°. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday A chance of showers before 9am, then a chance of showers after 2pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 70°. Light SW wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night Showers, mainly before 1am. Low around 44°. SW wind 13 to 17 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 54°. West wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 33°. West wind 5 to 7 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 53°.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 36°.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 52°.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 32°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 55°.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39°.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 61°.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 68°.
Overnight
Scattered showers. Patchy fog before 5am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 58. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
A chance of showers before 9am, then a chance of showers after 2pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 70. Light southwest wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers, mainly before 1am. Low around 44. Southwest wind 13 to 17 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 54. West wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 33. West wind 5 to 7 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 53.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 52.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 32.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 55.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 39.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 61.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 68.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: