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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 221939 AFDILM 

FXUS62 KILM 221939
AFDILM [HEAD]

National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 2:39pm EST Wed Jan 22 2025 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
239 PM EST WED JAN 22 2025 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Temperatures will remain well below normal the next several days with wind chill values near 10° tonight. Clouds return on Thursday with high temperatures only in the mid and upper 30s. Near normal temperatures return next week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 10 DEGREES TONIGHT. CLOUDS
RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Near term (through Thursday)… clear skies and full Sun this afternoon still has yet to bring temperatures up to freezing for most of our forecast area. The only exception is west of I-95 where snow accumulations were light. Because of this, road conditions will continue to be dangerous or worsen tonight when frigid temperatures return. Any melting that occurred today will quickly refreeze after sunset. See the Special Weather Statement currently in effect for more information. 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND FULL SUN THIS AFTERNOON STILL HAS YET TO BRING
TEMPERATURES UP TO FREEZING FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS WEST OF I-95 WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WERE LIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THIS, ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS OR
WORSEN TONIGHT WHEN FRIGID TEMPERATURES RETURN. ANY MELTING THAT
OCCURRED TODAY WILL QUICKLY REFREEZE AFTER SUNSET. SEE THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MORE INFORMATION. [DISC]

Tonight's low temperatures have been the focus of today's forecast challenge. A combination of light (but not calm) winds, snowpack, and anticipated cloud cover create an interesting spread of temperatures across the region by Thursday morning. A developing low off the cape Fear coast will initially spread clouds into the coastal areas of southeastern North Carolina with 850 mb warm advection increasing. 

TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN THE FOCUS OF TODAY`S FORECAST
CHALLENGE. A COMBINATION OF LIGHT (BUT NOT CALM) WINDS, SNOWPACK,
AND ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER CREATE AN INTERESTING SPREAD OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW
OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST WILL INITIALLY SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN NC WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING. [DISC]

Clouds associated with the surface low will likely impact the immediate coast (generally east of US-701). Between US-701 and the coast, lows will be limited by early evening radiation and light winds before clouds increase between 12am and 2am. Due to the observed snow cover, I have forecasted lows on the lower end of the guidance envelope: mid teens. 

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST (GENERALLY EAST OF US-701). BETWEEN US-701 AND THE
COAST, LOWS WILL BE LIMITED BY EARLY EVENING RADIATION AND LIGHT
WINDS BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE BETWEEN 12 AM AND 2 AM. DUE TO THE
OBSERVED SNOW COVER, I HAVE FORECASTED LOWS ON THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE: MID TEENS. [DISC]

Inland, cloud cover will increase from the west ahead of the approaching trough. These clouds will arrive late tonight and should allow areas with snow on the ground to radiate quite well. Expect most areas to fall into the single digits before cirrus arrives. West of I-95, lows will be a few degrees warmer where heavy snow accumulations were not recorded. Expect lows in the lower teens. Even with light winds, a cold weather advisory remains in effect tonight for wind chills and temperatures down to as low as 6°. 

INLAND, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD
ALLOW AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND TO RADIATE QUITE WELL. EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE CIRRUS ARRIVES.
WEST OF I-95, LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHERE HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT RECORDED. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS.
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
TONIGHT FOR WIND CHILLS AND TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AS LOW AS 6 DEGREES. [DISC]

Cloudy on Thursday beneath the approaching trough. Remaining cold with temperatures only in the mid and upper 30s. Without widespread sunshine, melting will continue to be slow. 

CLOUDY ON THURSDAY BENEATH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. REMAINING COLD
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. WITHOUT WIDESPREAD
SUNSHINE, MELTING WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW. [DISC]

Short term (Thursday night through Saturday night)… dry and cold through the period as high pressure builds in from the west. Clouds will hold on through late Friday before we start to clear out. Have accounted for some radiational cooling Friday night after the clearing. Highs will warm a bit into Friday as we get more sun but we'll remain in the 40s. Lows will be near 20 with coldest temperatures expected Friday night. A cold weather advisory due to wind chills may be possible if we get higher winds overnight but they should be light. 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE WE START TO
CLEAR OUT. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT
AFTER THE CLEARING. HIGHS WILL WARM A BIT INTO FRIDAY AS WE GET MORE
SUN BUT WE`LL REMAIN IN THE 40S. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 20 WITH COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO
WIND CHILLS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE GET HIGHER WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT
THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT. [DISC]

Long term (Sunday through Wednesday)… as the high slips offshore into early next week we could see an increase in temperatures and rain chances as moisture recovers ahead of another front. It's uncertain if this front will clear the area or wash out into mid next week, which will have an impact on how longer the milder weather sticks around. 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES AS MOISTURE RECOVERS AHEAD
OF ANOTHER FRONT. IT`S UNCERTAIN IF THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA
OR WASH OUT INTO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW
LONGER THE MILDER WEATHER STICKS AROUND. [DISC]

Aviation (20Z [3pm EST] Wednesday through Monday)… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with gusty winds this afternoon. Clouds increase overnight as a weak area of low pressure develops offshore. Confidence is low, but MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings could return after 03Z [10pm EST] at the coast. 

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, BUT MVFR CEILINGS COULD RETURN AFTER 03Z AT THE COAST. [AVIA]

Extended outlook. Next chance of sub-VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions will come into Monday when a cold front moves through the Carolinas. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK... NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME
INTO MON WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. [DISC]

Marine. Through Thursday… breezy conditions continue today but will gradually improve early this evening. Latest marine observations indicate that seas are holding steady at 4–6 feet. This is expected to improve late this afternoon and this evening as winds subside. A developing low off the coast will maintain 10–15 knots [12–17 mph] winds just offshore through Thursday with gusts to 20 knots [23 mph]

.MARINE...
THROUGH THURSDAY... BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT SEAS ARE HOLDING STEADY AT 4-6 FEET. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE. A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN 10-15 KNOTS WINDS JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. [AVIA]

Thursday night through Monday… sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through the period as high pressure builds in from the west. The high will move offshore into early next week with an increase in offshore winds. Seas roughly 2–3 ft through the period. 

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE
WINDS. SEAS ROUGHLY 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. [AVI2]

ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • North Carolina: cold weather advisory from 7pm this evening to 10am EST Thursday for NCZ087–096–099–105>110.
  • South Carolina: cold weather advisory from 7pm this evening to 10am EST Thursday for SCZ017–023–024–032–033–039–054>056–058–059.
  • Marine: Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for AMZ250–252–254–256. 
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256. [WARN]

Synopsis: ILM; Near Term: 21; Short Term: LEW; Long Term: LEW; Aviation: 21; Marine: 21/LEW 

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/LEW [CRED]

Point Forecast

Wilmington NC

22 Jan 5:53pm EST

Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 16°. Wind chill values as low as 10. North wind 5 to 8 mph.
Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37°. Wind chill values as low as 10. NW wind 5 to 7 mph.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23°. NW wind 3 to 6 mph.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 42°. North wind 6 to 8 mph.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 21°. NW wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 43°.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 24°.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 50°.
Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32°.
Monday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50°. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 34°.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 55°.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 37°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. Wind chill values as low as 10. North wind 5 to 8 mph.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Wind chill values as low as 10. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 42. North wind 6 to 8 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 21. Northwest wind around 5 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 43.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Monday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 55.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 37.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: