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FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 122101 AFDILM 

FXUS62 KILM 122101
AFDILM [HEAD]

National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 4:01pm EST Wed Dec 12 2018 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
401 PM EST WED DEC 12 2018 [HEAD]

Synopsis. High pressure will move across the southeast, reaching the coast tonight, then moving farther offshore Thursday. Low pressure approaching from the Gulf Coast will bring another significant rain event to the area Friday into Saturday morning, with up to three inches of rain possible. High pressure will build in from the west early next week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, REACHING THE
COAST TONIGHT, THEN MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Near term (through Thursday)… as of 3:00pm Wednesday… high clouds filtered out much of the sun this afternoon, hampering any further heating and maintaining temps in the low 50s most places. A thick cirrus canopy should remain, but guidance is suggesting some breaks tonight. This will make for a trickier temp forecast. With high pressure over the southeast, winds remain very light and variable. Therefore would expect decent radiational cooling if skies were clear. Any spots that thin out enough will cool off more than others, but overall expect temps in the 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS FILTERED OUT MUCH OF THE
SUN THIS AFTERNOON, HAMPERING ANY FURTHER HEATING AND
MAINTAINING TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S MOST PLACES. A THICK CIRRUS
CANOPY SHOULD REMAIN, BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME BREAKS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKIER TEMP FORECAST. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IF
SKIES WERE CLEAR. ANY SPOTS THAT THIN OUT ENOUGH WILL COOL OFF
MORE THAN OTHERS, BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS IN THE [DISC]

Moisture profiles and sounding data shows the moisture limited to the upper levels, above 20 kft, with very dry air below this level, right down to the surface. Therefore, expect dry weather through Thursday. The very light winds will remain variable with a more southerly component inland ahead of a dry front reaching into the western Carolinas, while the coast and places farther southeast will see more of a westerly return flow around high pressure shifting off the coast. Either way, the air mass will modify slowly with a return to seasonable temps on Thursday, with highs near 60 most places. Expect cirrus to filter out sunshine once again on Thursday, but no PCP expected. 

MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THE MOISTURE LIMITED
TO THE UPPER LEVELS, ABOVE 20K FT, WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW THIS
LEVEL, RIGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, EXPECT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN
VARIABLE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT INLAND AHEAD OF A DRY
FRONT REACHING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS, WHILE THE COAST AND
PLACES FARTHER SOUTHEAST WILL SEE MORE OF A WESTERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST. EITHER WAY, THE AIR
MASS WILL MODIFY SLOWLY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS ON
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 MOST PLACES. EXPECT CIRRUS TO
FILTER OUT SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT NO PCP EXPECTED. [DISC]

Short term (Thursday night through Saturday)… as of 3:00pm Wednesday… unsettled weather still forecast for the short term period with periods of moderate to heavy rain expected. For Thursday night, after a dry evening, chances for rain increase from SW to NE overnight as moisture and warm air advection increase out ahead of the aforementioned low pressure system. Mainly just light to moderate rain expected Thursday night with low temps ranging from the mid 40s inland to near 50 at the coast. 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WX STILL PROGGED FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT, AFTER A DRY EVENING, CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MAINLY JUST LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST. [DISC]

Heavier rain then expected into Friday as the best moisture and forcing for ascent become colocated over the local area. Categorical POPs [Probability of Precipitation] everywhere, with the best chance of rain during the afternoon hours. Maintained mention of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms as well. High temps in the low/mid 60s. 

HEAVIER RAIN THEN EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOME CO-LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. MAINTAINED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS AS
WELL. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. [DISC]

The moderate to at times heavy rain continues into Friday night, especially during the evening, before the warm air advection weakens and drier air moves in from the west. Any lingering rain into Saturday will be lighter and mainly confined to eastern areas. As far as storm total amounts… 12Z [7am EST] GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] and 12Z [7am EST] ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] both now have 2–5 inches forecasted for the entire CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map], with the highest amounts near the coast. If this pans out then Wilmington will easily make it to the 100 inch mark for the year (see climate section below). 

THE MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING, BEFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS
AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LINGERING RAIN INTO SAT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND MAINLY CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS. AS FAR AS
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH NOW HAVE 2-5 INCHES
FORECASTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE
COAST. IF THIS PANS OUT THEN WILMINGTON WILL EASILY MAKE IT TO THE
100 INCH MARK FOR THE YEAR (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). [DISC]

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)… as of 3:00pm Wednesday… drying trend continues into Saturday night with the main frontal boundary pushing offshore. With the upper-level low still in the vicinity held onto a 20–30% POP [Probability of Precipitation] Saturday night and Sunday. Dry then through the middle of next week as the upper-level low pulls offshore and surface high pressure builds in from the west. High temps Monday and Tuesday mainly in the 50s. 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING OFFSHORE. WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW STILL IN THE VICINITY HELD ONTO A 20-30% POP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY THEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 50S. [DISC]

Aviation (18Z [1pm EST] Wednesday through Monday)… as of 18Z [1pm EST]… except for low confidence visibilities restrictions due to patchy mist around sunrise tomorrow morning, there is high confidence of VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with increasing high/mid clouds this TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] valid period. 

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXCEPT FOR LOW CONFIDENCE VSBYS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD. [AVIA]

Extended outlook. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] Thursday afternoon. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/temporary IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] Friday due to rain and isolated thunderstorms. Sat MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] becoming VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Sun VFR [Visual Flight Rules]/temporary MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/ isolated showers. Monday VFR [Visual Flight Rules]

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THU AFTERNOON. MVFR/TEMPO IFR FRI DUE TO RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SAT MVFR BECOMING VFR. SUN VFR/TEMPO
MVFR/ ISOLATED SHOWERS. MON VFR. [DISC]

Marine. Near term (through Thursday)… as of 3:00pm Wednesday… high pressure will migrate across the southeast, reaching the coast overnight tonight into early Thursday, with a fairly relaxed gradient flow. This will produce very light off shore winds, basically 10 kts [12 mph] or less through tonight with the return flow around the high shifting to the SE to E by the end of the day on Thursday. With such a light flow, expect seas to remain less than 3 ft with a small longer period, up to 10 seconds, swell mixing in. 

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, REACHING THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURS, WITH A FAIRLY RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
VERY LIGHT OFF SHORE WINDS, BASICALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SE
TO E BY THE END OF THE DAY ON THURS. WITH SUCH A LIGHT FLOW,
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 3 FT WITH A SMALL LONGER PERIOD,
UP TO 10 SECONDS, SWELL MIXING IN. [AVIA]

Short term (Thursday night through Monday)… as of 3:00pm Wednesday… winds gradually increase Thursday night into Friday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Still expecting Small Craft Advisory conditions to commence by Friday morning over the coastal waters, likely lasting through at least Saturday evening. Wind gusts up to 25–30 kt [29–35 mph] Friday/Friday night. Seas up to 7–9 ft out 20 nm [23 miles]. Expect improving weather conditions by Saturday and Sunday as an upper-level low pressure system lifts northeast of the area. The surface pressure gradient relaxes ever so slightly, but will still be conducive to 15–20 kt [17–23 mph] winds both days. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions then for early to mid next week. 

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STILL EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO COMMENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, LIKELY
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7-9 FT OUT 20 NM. EXPECT IMPROVING
WX CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES EVER SO SLIGHTLY, BUT WILL STILL BE CONDUCIVE TO 15 TO 20 KT
WINDS BOTH DAYS. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN FOR EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK. [AVI2]

Climate. As of 3:00am Wednesday… no rain fell yesterday leaving Wilmington's annual total at 97.75 inches. Our newly-updated forecast for Friday includes 2 inches of rain, followed by another three-quarters of an inch on Saturday. This should be enough to push our annual total over 100 inches! Details are available at HTTPS:/weather.gov/ILM [Wilmington NC]/raceto100 

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...NO RAIN FELL YESTERDAY LEAVING
WILMINGTON`S ANNUAL TOTAL AT 97.75 INCHES. OUR NEWLY-UPDATED
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INCLUDES 2 INCHES OF RAIN, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH OUR ANNUAL TOTAL OVER 100 INCHES! DETAILS ARE
AVAILABLE AT HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/ILM/RACETO100 [AVIA]

ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • South Carolina: none.
  • North Carolina: none.
  • Marine: none. 
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE. [WARN]

Synopsis...; Near Term: RGZ; Short Term: MAS; Long Term: MAS; Aviation: RGZ/MRR; Marine...; Climate 

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR
MARINE...
CLIMATE... [CRED]

Point Forecast

Wilmington NC

12 Dec 3:53pm EST

Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38°. Light and variable wind.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°. Calm wind becoming SE around 5 mph.
Thursday Night A slight chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48°. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 66°. East wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Friday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 58°. SE wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
Saturday Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66°. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Saturday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 40°.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39°.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 54°.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 37°.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 57°.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Light and variable wind.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.
Thursday Night
A slight chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday
Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 66. East wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 58. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
Saturday
Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 39.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 54.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 37.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 57.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: