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FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 250449 AFDILM 

FXUS62 KILM 250449
AFDILM [HEAD]

National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 12:49am EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1249 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2021 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Showers are likely along the coast this morning as low pressure develops just offshore. A cold front will sweep across the Carolinas tonight, potentially accompanied by a few showers. High pressure Tuesday and Wednesday will bring dry weather, but strong low pressure is forecast to develop to our West Thursday, bringing increasing winds and rain through early Friday. 

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS JUST OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER, BUT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST THURSDAY,
BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND RAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. [DISC]

Update. Based on latest synoptic and mesoscale [medium-scale (km to 10s of km)]/rapid-update models, I've increased forecast rain chances along the coast by an additional 20% Monday morning. Mid-level isentropic [vertical motion associated with thermal advection] lift in advance of a shortwave trough crossing the area later Monday should yield sufficient precipitation to get measurable rain down to the ground at ILM [Wilmington NC] and myr where I'm now forecasting a 70% chance of showers. Forecast cloud cover has also been increased as skies are nearly overcast now and denser clouds are observed on satellite streaming in from the southwest. No significant changes are needed to temperatures, dewpoints, or winds. 

.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE/RAPID-UPDATE MODELS, I`VE
INCREASED FORECAST RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST BY AN ADDITIONAL
20 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA LATER MONDAY SHOULD
YIELD SUFFICIENT PRECIP TO GET MEASURABLE RAIN DOWN TO THE
GROUND AT ILM AND MYR WHERE I`M NOW FORECASTING A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED
AS SKIES ARE NEARLY OVERCAST NOW AND DENSER CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, OR WINDS. [DISC]

Near term (through Tuesday)… quiet over the next 6 hours or so as high pressure continues to push offshore. Upper-level cloud cover beginning to increase from the S and SW this evening. A shortwave over the southeastern US will cross the Carolinas through Monday, leading to the development of low pressure just offshore. Expect showers across the area ahead of this mid-level energy overnight through early Monday afternoon. Most of the moderate and heavy rain associated with this system should remain offshore with warmer water allowing this system to properly deepen. Models have struggled with the moisture return brought by easterly and SE winds today. Therefore, I have increased POPs [Probability of Precipitation] slightly above the model average and pushed the low-end chances a few miles inland. Showers should remain light and spotty overall, but there is a small chance that heavier showers make their way into coastal Brunswick and southern New Hanover by early Monday morning. This is all contingent on the track and expanse of the developing system. 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
OFFSHORE. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE S
AND SW THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL CROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY, LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
MID-LEVEL ENERGY OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
OF THE MODERATE AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH WARMER WATER ALLOWING THIS SYSTEM
TO PROPERLY DEEPEN. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN BROUGHT BY EASTERLY AND SE WINDS TODAY. THEREFORE, I HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MODEL AVERAGE AND PUSHED THE
LOW-END CHANCES A FEW MILES INLAND. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
AND SPOTTY OVERALL, BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO COASTAL BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHERN NEW
HANOVER BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALL CONTINGENT ON THE
TRACK AND EXPANSE OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. [DISC]

Showers decrease in coverage early Monday afternoon with the quickly progressing low pushing off to the NE. A larger upper trough will dig southward, pushing a surface cold front through the southeastern US on Monday afternoon. There will be a brief lull in activity as one system emerges offshore and the trough from the west approaches. In the wake of the previous disturbance the environment ahead of the front is likely to be far from our typical pre-frontal unstable air mass. Surface winds out of the NW and W during the afternoon will have a hard time advecting the warm moist air to our south. In addition to this less-than-favorable wind field, sunset is likely to occur before significant BL [Boundary Layer] warming can take place. While the overall shear environment is favorable for a slight risk of severe weather, instability is likely to be a limiting factor through the afternoon and evening. That said, one or two isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as the cold front pushes eastward across North Carolina/South Carolina as an organized line of showers or thunderstorms, feeding from the earlier initialization. The base of the trough quickly moves through the area overnight Monday into Tuesday morning with NW cold advection lagging the upper-level signal. The delay of cold air will likely keep overnight lows in the upper 50s with the cooler air just to our west. 

SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE QUICKLY
PROGRESSING LOW PUSHING OFF TO THE NE. A LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD, PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
US ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY AS
ONE SYSTEM EMERGES OFFSHORE AND THE TROUGH FROM THE WEST APPROACHES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS DISTURBANCE THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE FAR FROM OUR TYPICAL PRE-FRONTAL UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND W DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME ADVECTING THE WARM MOIST AIR TO OUR SOUTH. IN
ADDITION TO THIS LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE WIND FIELD, SUNSET IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR BEFORE SIGNIFICANT BL WARMING CAN TAKE PLACE. WHILE THE
OVERALL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER, INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT SAID, ONE OR TWO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS NC/SC AS
AN ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, FEEDING FROM THE
EARLIER INITIALIZATION. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH NW COLD
ADVECTION LAGGING THE UPPER-LEVEL SIGNAL. THE DELAY OF COLD AIR WILL
LIKELY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH THE COOLER AIR JUST
TO OUR WEST. [DISC]

Short term (Tuesday night through Wednesday night)… mid to upper trough will lift north leaving a deep cool and dry NW flow Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds in. Ridge builds in aloft briefly on Wednesday before getting pushed offshore by Thursday morning. Overall, expect a dry and mainly seasonable weather with overnight lows in the mid 40s inland to around 50 near the coast and high temps in the lower 70s most places. 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH LEAVING A DEEP COOL AND DRY
NW FLOW TUES INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. RIDGE BUILDS
IN ALOFT BRIEFLY ON WED BEFORE GETTING PUSHED OFFSHORE BY THURS
MORNING. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY AND MAINLY SEASONABLE WEATHER
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE
COAST AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES. [DISC]

Long term (Thursday through Monday)… deep cutoff low [A closed upper-level low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from basic westerly current, and moves independently of that current. Cutoff lows may remain nearly stationary for days, or on occasion may move westward opposite to the prevailing flow aloft] over the Mississippi Valley will deepen further as it shifts east toward the Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Clouds and PCP will increase on Thursday as warm front lifts north into the area. Could see some decent QPF [Quantitative Precipitation Forecast] Thursday afternoon and potential for severe weather exists before we dry out behind warm front with increasing SW flow into Friday. Should see breezy conditions associated with this low through Friday into Saturday. Moisture will wrap around deep low located to the west later on Friday. The surface low should track up from the southern Appalachians to the mid Atlantic coast on Saturday which will drag a cold front through the Carolinas. May see more in the way of clouds rather than PCP through Friday into Saturday, but can not discount limited rain chances until cold front clears the coast over the weekend. 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DEEPEN FURTHER
AS IT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THURS INTO FRI. CLOUDS
AND PCP WILL INCREASE ON THURS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME DECENT QPF THURS AFTN AND POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS BEFORE WE DRY OUT BEHIND WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING SW FLOW INTO FRI. SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW THROUGH FRI INTO SAT. MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND DEEP LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST LATER ON FRI. THE SFC
LOW SHOULD TRACK UP FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON SAT WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS RATHER THAN PCP
THROUGH FRI INTO SAT, BUT CAN NOT DISCOUNT LIMITED RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. [DISC]

Temps will warm in WAA [Warm Air Advection - the advection (movement) of warm air into a region] through Thursday, but will remain near or below normal due to clouds and cool air moving in behind front over the weekend. 

TEMPS WILL WARM IN WAA THROUGH THURS, BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND COOL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND. [DISC]

Aviation (06Z [2am EDT] Monday through Friday)… mid level clouds will thicken this morning as low pressure takes shape off the South Carolina coast. Light rain, with perhaps some elevated convective elements, will develop by 10–12Z [6–8am EDT] along the coast, lasting through 14–16Z [10am–12pm EDT]. Rain will likely induce MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings to develop at myr, cre, and ILM [Wilmington NC], with VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions expected to continue beneath mid level cloud ceilings inland at flow and LBT [Lumberton NC]. Clearing should develop from west to east across the area between 16–20Z [12–4pm EDT]. The surface cold front will reach the eastern Carolinas tonight, but probabilities of showers have diminished in each of the last few model runs and none will be included in the TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts] at this time. 

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
TAKES SHAPE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. LIGHT RAIN, WITH
PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, WILL DEVELOP BY
10-12Z ALONG THE COAST, LASTING THROUGH 14-16Z. RAIN WILL LIKELY
INDUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT MYR, CRE, AND ILM, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BENEATH MID LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
INLAND AT FLO AND LBT. CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 16-20Z. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT, BUT PROBABILITIES OF
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN EACH OF THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS AND
NONE WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. [AVIA]

Extended outlook. Low clouds, showers, and low level wind shear conditions will develop Thursday as strong low pressure approaches from the west. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. [DISC]

Marine. Through Monday night… onshore flow increases overnight ahead of a developing area of low pressure following the coast through tomorrow morning. SE winds 10–15 knots [12–17 mph] will strengthen ahead of the low and veer on its departure. Southerly flow redevelops ahead of a line of showers and storms on Monday night. The gradient strengthens significantly behind the exiting front with SW winds 15–20 knots [17–23 mph] and gusts to 25 knots [29 mph] on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Seas 3–5 feet with potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop around sunrise on Tuesday. Confidence is low at the moment as conditions look marginal. Regardless, small craft should exercise caution Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND VEER ON ITS DEPARTURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT WITH SW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS 3-5
FEET WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT AS
CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL. REGARDLESS, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. [AVIA]

Tuesday through Friday… offshore flow will develop behind cold front as low pressure lifts northeast and deepens. Possible Small Craft Advisory conditions on Tuesday in gusty winds shifting from SW-W to NW-N behind cold front. Seas up near 6 ft early Tuesday will subside late Tuesday into Wednesday with seas dropping to 2–4 ft through Wednesday before beginning to increase early Thursday as next potent system approaches. A strong southerly push will develop as warm front lifts north on Thursday with an extended period of Small Craft Advisory conditions taking shape and lasting into the first half of the weekend. 

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD
FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS. POSSIBLE SCA
CONDITIONS ON TUES IN GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW-W TO NW-N
BEHIND COLD FRONT. SEAS UP NEAR 6 FT EARLY TUES WILL SUBSIDE
LATE TUES INTO WED WITH SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH WED
BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE EARLY THURS AS NEXT POTENT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. A STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL DEVELOP AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ON THURS WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TAKING SHAPE AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. [AVI2]

ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • South Carolina: none.
  • North Carolina: none.
  • Marine: none. 
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE. [WARN]

Synopsis: TRA; Update: TRA; Near Term: 21; Short Term: RGZ; Long Term: RGZ; Aviation: TRA; Marine 

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE... [CRED]

Point Forecast

Wilmington NC

25 Oct 1:53am EDT

Overnight A chance of showers, mainly after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 66°. SE wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Monday Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78°. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Monday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 3am, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60°. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 72°. NW wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 50°. NW wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 71°.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 55°.
Thursday A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 73°. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday Night Showers likely, mainly between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59°. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday A chance of showers before 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 71°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 53°.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66°.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 69°.
Overnight
A chance of showers, mainly after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Monday
Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 3am, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Northwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 50. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 71.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Thursday
A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday Night
Showers likely, mainly between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday
A chance of showers before 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 69.

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