Area Forecast Discussion
FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 231051 AFDILM ∨
FXUS62 KILM 231051 AFDILM [HEAD]
National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 5:51am EST Fri Feb 23 2024 ∨
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 551 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2024 [HEAD]
Synopsis. Showers are expected today as a cold front approaches and slides through late in the day. Noticeably cooler weather will arrive behind another cold front late on Saturday. High pressure will quickly shift offshore early next week and a substantial warmup will follow through most of the week. ∨
.SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLIDES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. [DISC]
Update. As of 5:45am… scattered showers have begun to develop across northeast SC and they are moving quickly toward the northeast. Coverage of showers along with the potential for a few thunderstorms will increase this morning into the afternoon. No major changes were made to the latest forecast. ∨
.UPDATE... AS OF 545 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST SC AND THEY ARE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST. [DISC]
Near term (through tonight)… at H5 [height of the 500 mb level (nominally 18,000 ft)], a positively tilted trough extends from the northeast US into the lower Mississippi Valley early this morning. This feature will shift eastward during the day allowing the cold front currently across western Kentucky/Tennessee to move off the coast later this afternoon/early evening. The approaching cold front and support from LFQ [left front quadrant] of H3 jet will provide for decent rainfall chances today. However, the progressive nature of this system is expected to limit QPF [Quantitative Precipitation Forecast] to around a half inch or less for most locations across the forecast area. There is also a marginal risk for severe weather with a few strong storms possible today. Instability remains the big question mark given all of the cloud cover expected, but the effective shear suggests that there is at least a small chance of primarily localized damaging wind gusts. ∨
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT H5, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SUPPORT FROM LFQ OF H3 JET WILL PROVIDE FOR DECENT RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY. HOWEVER, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT QPF TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION MARK GIVEN ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, BUT THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF PRIMARILY LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. [DISC]
The chance of rain will ramp up from west to east this morning, then as the swath of uvvs shifts eastward the chances will be much diminished by the late afternoon/early evening. A much drier column will be in place for much of tonight. Overall, high temperatures today will be above normal (mid 60s) for most inland areas, but cooler at the southward facing beaches given the fetch and very cool adjacent SSTs [sea surface temperatures]. Lows tonight will be cooler compared to early this morning, but will remain a category above normal will strong cold air advection lacking in the wake of the front. ∨
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING, THEN AS THE SWATH OF UVVS SHIFTS EASTWARD THE CHANCES WILL BE MUCH DIMINISHED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A MUCH DRIER COLUMN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL (MID 60S) FOR MOST INLAND AREAS, BUT COOLER AT THE SOUTHWARD FACING BEACHES GIVEN THE FETCH AND VERY COOL ADJACENT SSTS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL WILL STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. [DISC]
Short term (Saturday through Sunday night)… secondary shortwave following the cold front on Saturday will bring a chance of showers. Mainly cloudy during the day, but shower chances increase during the afternoon. Lapse rates [The rate of change of an atmospheric variable, usually temperature, with height. A steep lapse rate implies a rapid decrease in temperature with height (a sign of instability) and a steepening lapse rate implies that destabilization is occurring.] throughout the column remain impressive due to the upper level low. Weak instability aloft could support a brief gust or small hail afternoon and into Saturday evening. ∨
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MAINLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY, BUT SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN REMAIN IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF GUST OR SMALL HAIL AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING. [DISC]
Cool high pressure builds into the area on Sunday with afternoon temperatures topping out in the upper 50s. Clear skies and cool temperatures continue overnight with lows on Monday morning in the upper 30s. ∨
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S. [DISC]
Long term (Monday through Thursday)… high pressure will gradually slide offshore early next week and will begin a rapid warming trend. Southerly flow and ridging aloft will see high temperatures soar into the mid and upper 70s during the middle of next week. Very little agreement exists between deterministic and ensembles for late next week. Several waves will be traversing the Central US late next week and there is uncertainty in the timing of fronts and shortwaves. Best to generalize late next week as warm and potentially unsettled. ∨
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BEGIN A RAPID WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES WILL BE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL US LATE NEXT WEEK AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF FRONTS AND SHORTWAVES. BEST TO GENERALIZE LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARM AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. [DISC]
Aviation (12Z [7am EST] Friday through Tuesday)… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions are expected early on during the forecast period but will give way to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]-IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings as the cold front moves across the forecast area. Expect to see ceilings improve primarily during the 22–01Z [5–8pm EST] timeframe and beyond. Breezy southwesterly winds will occur during most of the day given the strengthening pressure gradient. Thee wind will also veer/gradually subside as the cold front moves across and exits the coast during the late afternoon/early evening. ∨
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR-IFR CIGS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO SEE CIGS IMPROVE PRIMARILY DURING THE 22-01Z TIMEFRAME AND BEYOND. BREEZY SWLY WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING MOST OF THE DAY GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEE WIND WILL ALSO VEER/GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND EXITS THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. [AVIA]
Extended outlook. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions expected. ∨
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. [DISC]
Marine. Through tonight… the southwesterly fetch will continue to increase during the day ahead of a cold front that will push across the coastal waters late this afternoon/early this evening. Have opted to raise a Gale Warning for the far southern waters where the gradient winds will be the strongest with more frequent gusts to gale force expected. For the remaining waters the gradient winds and gusts should remain below gale criteria. Overall, the very cold SSTs [sea surface temperatures] will inhibit mixing in this type of pattern, while areas farther offshore from frying pan eastward should have no problem realizing gale conditions. Winds will veer around to a W, then northwesterly direction in the wake of the cold front. Winds will also diminish across waters in the offshore flow tonight allowing seas to begin subsiding in the process. Not much in the way of showers early in the period, but showers will increase in coverage during the day along with the potential for a few thunderstorms. The chance for storms will come to an end during the early evening. ∨
.MARINE... THROUGH TONIGHT... THE SWLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINING WATERS THE GRADIENT WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA. OVERALL, THE VERY COLD SSTS WILL INHIBIT MIXING IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN, WHILE AREAS FARTHER OFFSHORE FROM FRYING PAN EASTWARD SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REALIZING GALE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO A W, THEN NWLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH ACROSS WATERS IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN SUBSIDING IN THE PROCESS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY EVENING. [AVIA]
Saturday through Tuesday night… offshore flow will peak on Saturday evening as a mid level shortwave moves through the area. During this brief increase, portions of the SC nearshore waters could see gusts peak to near 25 knots [29 mph] where mixing depths will be largest. High pressure builds into the region on Sunday and will gradually shift offshore through early next week. Light winds on Sunday and Monday begin to transition into Tuesday. As this area of high pressure centers near Bermuda, southerly flow will be 10–15 knots [12–17 mph] and gusts to 20 knots [23 mph] by the end of the period. ∨
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY EVENING AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DURING THIS BRIEF INCREASE, PORTIONS OF THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS PEAK TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WHERE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE LARGEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR BERMUDA, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. [AVI2]
ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ256. [WARN]
Synopsis: ILM; Update: SRP; Near Term: SRP; Short Term: 21; Long Term: 21; Aviation: SRP; Marine: 21/SRP ∨
SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...SRP NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...SRP MARINE...21/SRP [CRED]
23 Feb 6:53am EST
Today Showers and thunderstorms before 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 64°. Breezy, with a SW wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight A chance of showers, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 43°. NW wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday A chance of showers after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 62°. West wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 36°. NW wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 56°. North wind around 7 mph becoming SE in the afternoon.
Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 40°.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 66°.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 71°.
Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°.
Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 72°.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55°.
Thursday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Showers and thunderstorms before 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. High near 64. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of showers, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 43. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 62. West wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 56. North wind around 7 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.
Clear, with a low around 40.
Sunny, with a high near 66.
Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Partly sunny, with a high near 72.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 30%.