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FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 201043 AFDILM ∨

FXUS62 KILM 201043
AFDILM [HEAD]

National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 6:43am EDT Tue May 20 2025 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2025 [HEAD]

Synopsis. A warm front will lift north across the area this evening followed by a cold front Wednesday, with scattered storms this afternoon through midday Wednesday. Slightly cooler and less humid air is slated for the late week period and into the weekend. Unsettled weather may return Sunday into next week. ∨

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR IS SLATED FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Near term (through tonight)… shortwave ridge at 5H slips east today, helping bump a stalled front north, into the forecast area this afternoon. Big jump in low level moisture with the boundary, so unlike the last few days there will be an abundance of deep moisture. Boundary layer humidity increases by some 20–30% compared to Monday afternoon leading to a significant increase in SBCAPE [Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy, a measure of instability in the troposphere] today. Much of the forecast area will see SBCAPE [Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy, a measure of instability in the troposphere] in the neighborhood of 1500–2000 J/kg [specific energy] with portions of SC seeing values over 2000 J/kg [specific energy]. Mid-level lapse rates [The rate of change of an atmospheric variable, usually temperature, with height. A steep lapse rate implies a rapid decrease in temperature with height (a sign of instability) and a steepening lapse rate implies that destabilization is occurring.] increase a bit in the afternoon as heights fall slightly. There is a noticeable low level moisture gradient and partial thickness packing moving north into South Carolina in afternoon. This is likely where the first storms will develop. These gradients lift north from late afternoon into the evening, steered inland by the afternoon sea breeze. Best storm coverage will be across most of the SC Counties (away from the immediate coast) and inland North Carolina Counties. The more stable marine layer will limit convection across coastal North Carolina Counties. The 270–280 storm motion may lead to some convection moving across coastal North Carolina in the evening, although it would be in a weakening state. Area has been highlighted in a marginal risk by SPC [Storm Prediction Center] and an isolated strong/severe storm cannot be ruled out, but with limited storm coverage and environmental parameters on the lower end of severe thresholds the overall threat appears to rather limited. ∨

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 5H SLIPS EAST TODAY, HELPING BUMP A STALLED
FRONT NORTH, INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BIG JUMP IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY, SO UNLIKE THE LAST FEW
DAYS THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER
HUMIDITY INCREASES BY SOME 20-30% COMPARED TO MON AFTERNOON
LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SBCAPE TODAY. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SBCAPE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1500-2000
J/KG WITH PORTIONS OF SC SEEING VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL
SLIGHTLY. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT AND
PARTIAL THICKNESS PACKING MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA IN
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY WHERE THE FIRST STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
THESE GRADIENTS LIFT NORTH FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
STEERED INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. BEST STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE SC COUNTIES (AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST) AND INLAND NC COUNTIES. THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS COASTAL NC COUNTIES. THE 270-280
STORM MOTION MAY LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS COASTAL
NC IN THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE IN A WEAKENING STATE.
AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK BY SPC AND AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WITH
LIMITED STORM COVERAGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ON THE LOWER
END OF SEVERE THRESHOLDS THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO RATHER
LIMITED. [DISC]

Coverage will be somewhat held back by the lack of strong forcing [any mechanism that initiates or intensifies vertical motion in the atmosphere]. The front itself is weak and the only PVA [Positive Vorticity Advection] is shifted north of the area by midday as the ridge axis shifts east. Diurnal heating and convergence where the sea breeze meets the front will be the main forcing [any mechanism that initiates or intensifies vertical motion in the atmosphere] mechanism for the initial storms. Other storms will likely develop off the outflow from the first round, but coverage will be scattered at best. Temperatures will range from near normal along the coast, mainly due to the sea breeze, to slightly above normal inland. ∨

COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT HELD BACK BY THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING. THE FRONT ITSELF IS WEAK AND THE ONLY PVA IS SHIFTED
NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MEETS THE
FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE INITIAL STORMS.
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST
ROUND, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE, TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. [DISC]

Front lifts north of the area this evening leaving the region in the warm sector. Cannot rule out an isolated shower closer to the front overnight, although chances are slim. The lack of forcing [any mechanism that initiates or intensifies vertical motion in the atmosphere] and surface based instability suggests it will be a dry, but very warm night. Lows could be 10 or more degrees above normal. ∨

FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION
IN THE WARM SECTOR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CLOSER TO
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE LACK OF
FORCING AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS IT WILL BE A DRY,
BUT VERY WARM NIGHT. LOWS COULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. [DISC]

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday night)… a secondary surface low will be moving across North Carolina on Wednesday, with attending cold front approaching our area during the day. Primary window for scattered storms will be Wednesday morning through midday before subsidence from NVA [Negative Vorticity Advection] and abundant dry air aloft (RH [Relative Humidity] ~5% above 700 mb) moves in from the west in the afternoon. Clearing skies Wednesday afternoon will allow temps to reach into low 90s, with MEX [MOS Extended forecast] guidance hinting at a chance of 95°F highs, as well as deep mixing leading to breezy wind gusts. Cold front will move across late Wednesday with dropping dewpoints Wednesday night and lows in the low 60s. ∨

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NC ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY.
PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SUBSIDENCE FROM NVA AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR
ALOFT (RH ~5% ABOVE 700MB) MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH INTO LOW 90S, WITH MEX GUIDANCE HINTING AT A CHANCE OF
95F HIGHS, AS WELL AS DEEP MIXING LEADING TO BREEZY WIND GUSTS.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH DROPPING
DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE LOW 60S. [DISC]

Relatively quiet day Thursday with highs in the mid 80s and another day of breezy conditions. A second cold front looks to make its way through the Carolinas late on Thursday, with cooler and drier air behind it. Have lowered POPs [Probability of Precipitation] a little due to lingering dry air aloft, but have maintained slight chance for northern and coastal areas late Thursday due to front and PVA [Positive Vorticity Advection] across North Carolina. Low temps Thursday night will drop below normal into the mid to upper 50s. ∨

RELATIVELY QUIET DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE ON THURSDAY, WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS LATE THURSDAY DUE TO FRONT AND PVA
ACROSS NC. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. [DISC]

Long term (Friday through Monday)… quiet with below normal temps forecasted for Friday and Saturday as high pressure briefly builds in from the north. Unsettled weather may return Sunday and Monday as increased moisture is advected over a mid-level ridge to the south and guidance shows a series of surface lows moving across the southeast. Still a wide range of solutions shown in ensemble guidance so POPs [Probability of Precipitation] are rather limited with only a slight warming trend in the forecast. ∨

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FORECASTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS INCREASED
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED OVER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. STILL A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SO POPS ARE RATHER LIMITED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND IN THE FORECAST. [DISC]

Aviation (12Z [8am EDT] Tuesday through Saturday)… high confidence in VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through 18Z [2pm EDT]. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across inland South Carolina this afternoon then expand north into the early evening hours. Best chances will be at flow and LBT [Lumberton NC] with coverage between 30–40%. Sea breeze will result in east winds and stable marine layer for the coastal terminals. Storm motion will move storms that develop toward the coastal terminals, but the marine layer will limit any possible impact at cre/ILM [Wilmington NC]/myr. ∨

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN EXPAND NORTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE AT FLO AND LBT WITH COVERAGE BETWEEN 30-40%. SEA
BREEZE WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS AND STABLE MARINE LAYER FOR
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. STORM MOTION WILL MOVE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMINALS, BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIMIT ANY POSSIBLE IMPACT AT CRE/ILM/MYR. [AVIA]

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 06Z [2am EDT] as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Best chances will be along the coast with ILM [Wilmington NC] favored. ∨

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH ILM FAVORED. [AVI2]

Extended outlook. Low confidence in brief IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]/MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] from storms through midday Wednesday. High confidence in VFR [Visual Flight Rules] Wednesday night through Saturday. ∨

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF IFR/MVFR FROM STORMS
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. [DISC]

Marine. Through tonight… brief, weak northeast surge this morning with front slipping to the south. Sea breeze quickly dominates the wind field with onshore flow developing by early afternoon. The front returns north late in the day with southwest flow developing by midnight and increasing to around 15 kt [17 mph] in the predawn hours of Wednesday. Seas around 2 ft today build to 2–3 ft tonight once southwest flow sets up. Pretty chaotic mix of waves today with a northeast wind wave developing in the morning before a southerly wind wave takes shape tonight. A southeast swell will be present through the end of tonight. ∨

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...BRIEF, WEAK NORTHEAST SURGE THIS MORNING WITH
FRONT SLIPPING TO THE SOUTH. SEA BREEZE QUICKLY DOMINATES THE
WIND FIELD WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT RETURNS NORTH LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF WED. SEAS AROUND 2 FT TODAY BUILD TO 2-3 FT
TONIGHT ONCE SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. PRETTY CHAOTIC MIX OF WAVES
TODAY WITH A NORTHEAST WIND WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING
BEFORE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT. A SOUTHEAST
SWELL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE END OF TONIGHT. [AVIA]

Wednesday through Saturday… southwest winds prevail Wednesday, with gusts up to 25 kts [29 mph] late afternoon/evening hours, before a cold front moves across the waters late Wednesday. Seas increase to 3–5 ft for Wednesday evening due to strengthened S wind wave mixing with 1–2 ft SE swell. Winds turn briefly offshore Wednesday night before SW flow returns Thursday ahead of a second cold front. West-northwest winds dominate Thursday night through Saturday, with strongest speeds around 15 kts [17 mph] Thursday night behind the front. Seas 3–4 ft Wednesday night through Thursday night lower to around 2 ft for Friday and Saturday. ∨

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. SEAS INCREASE
TO 3-5 FT FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO STRENGTHENED S WIND WAVE
MIXING WITH 1-2 FT SE SWELL. WINDS TURN BRIEFLY OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SW FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SECOND COLD FRONT. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH STRONGEST SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS 3-4 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWER TO AROUND 2 FT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. [AVI2]

ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

North Carolina: none.
South Carolina: none.
Marine: none. ∨

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE. [WARN]

Synopsis...; Near Term: III; Short Term: VAO; Long Term: VAO; Aviation: III; Marine: III/VAO ∨

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/VAO [CRED]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 201043 AFDILM ∨ FXUS62 KILM 201043 AFDILM [HEAD] National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 6:43am EDT Tue May 20 2025 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 643 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2025 [HEAD] Synopsis. A warm front will lift north across the area this evening followed by a cold front Wednesday, with scattered storms this afternoon through midday Wednesday. Slightly cooler and less humid air is slated for the late week period and into the weekend. Unsettled weather may return Sunday into next week. ∨ .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS SLATED FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. [DISC] Near term (through tonight)… shortwave ridge at 5H slips east today, helping bump a stalled front north, into the forecast area this afternoon. Big jump in low level moisture with the boundary, so unlike the last few days there will be an abundance of deep moisture. Boundary layer humidity increases by some 20–30% compared to Monday afternoon leading to a significant increase in SBCAPE [Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy, a measure of instability in the troposphere] today. Much of the forecast area will see SBCAPE [Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy, a measure of instability in the troposphere] in the neighborhood of 1500–2000 J/kg [specific energy] with portions of SC seeing values over 2000 J/kg [specific energy]. Mid-level lapse rates [The rate of change of an atmospheric variable, usually temperature, with height. A steep lapse rate implies a rapid decrease in temperature with height (a sign of instability) and a steepening lapse rate implies that destabilization is occurring.] increase a bit in the afternoon as heights fall slightly. There is a noticeable low level moisture gradient and partial thickness packing moving north into South Carolina in afternoon. This is likely where the first storms will develop. These gradients lift north from late afternoon into the evening, steered inland by the afternoon sea breeze. Best storm coverage will be across most of the SC Counties (away from the immediate coast) and inland North Carolina Counties. The more stable marine layer will limit convection across coastal North Carolina Counties. The 270–280 storm motion may lead to some convection moving across coastal North Carolina in the evening, although it would be in a weakening state. Area has been highlighted in a marginal risk by SPC [Storm Prediction Center] and an isolated strong/severe storm cannot be ruled out, but with limited storm coverage and environmental parameters on the lower end of severe thresholds the overall threat appears to rather limited. ∨ .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 5H SLIPS EAST TODAY, HELPING BUMP A STALLED FRONT NORTH, INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BIG JUMP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY, SO UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY INCREASES BY SOME 20-30% COMPARED TO MON AFTERNOON LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SBCAPE TODAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SBCAPE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH PORTIONS OF SC SEEING VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT AND PARTIAL THICKNESS PACKING MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA IN AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY WHERE THE FIRST STORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE GRADIENTS LIFT NORTH FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, STEERED INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS MOST OF THE SC COUNTIES (AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST) AND INLAND NC COUNTIES. THE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS COASTAL NC COUNTIES. THE 270-280 STORM MOTION MAY LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS COASTAL NC IN THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE IN A WEAKENING STATE. AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK BY SPC AND AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WITH LIMITED STORM COVERAGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ON THE LOWER END OF SEVERE THRESHOLDS THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO RATHER LIMITED. [DISC] Coverage will be somewhat held back by the lack of strong forcing [any mechanism that initiates or intensifies vertical motion in the atmosphere]. The front itself is weak and the only PVA [Positive Vorticity Advection] is shifted north of the area by midday as the ridge axis shifts east. Diurnal heating and convergence where the sea breeze meets the front will be the main forcing [any mechanism that initiates or intensifies vertical motion in the atmosphere] mechanism for the initial storms. Other storms will likely develop off the outflow from the first round, but coverage will be scattered at best. Temperatures will range from near normal along the coast, mainly due to the sea breeze, to slightly above normal inland. ∨ COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT HELD BACK BY THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING. THE FRONT ITSELF IS WEAK AND THE ONLY PVA IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MEETS THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE INITIAL STORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FIRST ROUND, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE, TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. [DISC] Front lifts north of the area this evening leaving the region in the warm sector. Cannot rule out an isolated shower closer to the front overnight, although chances are slim. The lack of forcing [any mechanism that initiates or intensifies vertical motion in the atmosphere] and surface based instability suggests it will be a dry, but very warm night. Lows could be 10 or more degrees above normal. ∨ FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE LACK OF FORCING AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS IT WILL BE A DRY, BUT VERY WARM NIGHT. LOWS COULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. [DISC] Short term (Wednesday through Thursday night)… a secondary surface low will be moving across North Carolina on Wednesday, with attending cold front approaching our area during the day. Primary window for scattered storms will be Wednesday morning through midday before subsidence from NVA [Negative Vorticity Advection] and abundant dry air aloft (RH [Relative Humidity] ~5% above 700 mb) moves in from the west in the afternoon. Clearing skies Wednesday afternoon will allow temps to reach into low 90s, with MEX [MOS Extended forecast] guidance hinting at a chance of 95°F highs, as well as deep mixing leading to breezy wind gusts. Cold front will move across late Wednesday with dropping dewpoints Wednesday night and lows in the low 60s. ∨ .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NC ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SUBSIDENCE FROM NVA AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT (RH ~5% ABOVE 700MB) MOVES IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO LOW 90S, WITH MEX GUIDANCE HINTING AT A CHANCE OF 95F HIGHS, AS WELL AS DEEP MIXING LEADING TO BREEZY WIND GUSTS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH DROPPING DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE LOW 60S. [DISC] Relatively quiet day Thursday with highs in the mid 80s and another day of breezy conditions. A second cold front looks to make its way through the Carolinas late on Thursday, with cooler and drier air behind it. Have lowered POPs [Probability of Precipitation] a little due to lingering dry air aloft, but have maintained slight chance for northern and coastal areas late Thursday due to front and PVA [Positive Vorticity Advection] across North Carolina. Low temps Thursday night will drop below normal into the mid to upper 50s. ∨ RELATIVELY QUIET DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE ON THURSDAY, WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS LATE THURSDAY DUE TO FRONT AND PVA ACROSS NC. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. [DISC] Long term (Friday through Monday)… quiet with below normal temps forecasted for Friday and Saturday as high pressure briefly builds in from the north. Unsettled weather may return Sunday and Monday as increased moisture is advected over a mid-level ridge to the south and guidance shows a series of surface lows moving across the southeast. Still a wide range of solutions shown in ensemble guidance so POPs [Probability of Precipitation] are rather limited with only a slight warming trend in the forecast. ∨ .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FORECASTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED OVER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. STILL A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SO POPS ARE RATHER LIMITED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN THE FORECAST. [DISC] Aviation (12Z [8am EDT] Tuesday through Saturday)… high confidence in VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through 18Z [2pm EDT]. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across inland South Carolina this afternoon then expand north into the early evening hours. Best chances will be at flow and LBT [Lumberton NC] with coverage between 30–40%. Sea breeze will result in east winds and stable marine layer for the coastal terminals. Storm motion will move storms that develop toward the coastal terminals, but the marine layer will limit any possible impact at cre/ILM [Wilmington NC]/myr. ∨ .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXPAND NORTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT FLO AND LBT WITH COVERAGE BETWEEN 30-40%. SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN EAST WINDS AND STABLE MARINE LAYER FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. STORM MOTION WILL MOVE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMINALS, BUT THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIMIT ANY POSSIBLE IMPACT AT CRE/ILM/MYR. [AVIA] Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 06Z [2am EDT] as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Best chances will be along the coast with ILM [Wilmington NC] favored. ∨ ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH ILM FAVORED. [AVI2] Extended outlook. Low confidence in brief IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]/MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] from storms through midday Wednesday. High confidence in VFR [Visual Flight Rules] Wednesday night through Saturday. ∨ EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF IFR/MVFR FROM STORMS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. [DISC] Marine. Through tonight… brief, weak northeast surge this morning with front slipping to the south. Sea breeze quickly dominates the wind field with onshore flow developing by early afternoon. The front returns north late in the day with southwest flow developing by midnight and increasing to around 15 kt [17 mph] in the predawn hours of Wednesday. Seas around 2 ft today build to 2–3 ft tonight once southwest flow sets up. Pretty chaotic mix of waves today with a northeast wind wave developing in the morning before a southerly wind wave takes shape tonight. A southeast swell will be present through the end of tonight. ∨ .MARINE... THROUGH TONIGHT...BRIEF, WEAK NORTHEAST SURGE THIS MORNING WITH FRONT SLIPPING TO THE SOUTH. SEA BREEZE QUICKLY DOMINATES THE WIND FIELD WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WED. SEAS AROUND 2 FT TODAY BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT ONCE SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. PRETTY CHAOTIC MIX OF WAVES TODAY WITH A NORTHEAST WIND WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING BEFORE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT. A SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE END OF TONIGHT. [AVIA] Wednesday through Saturday… southwest winds prevail Wednesday, with gusts up to 25 kts [29 mph] late afternoon/evening hours, before a cold front moves across the waters late Wednesday. Seas increase to 3–5 ft for Wednesday evening due to strengthened S wind wave mixing with 1–2 ft SE swell. Winds turn briefly offshore Wednesday night before SW flow returns Thursday ahead of a second cold front. West-northwest winds dominate Thursday night through Saturday, with strongest speeds around 15 kts [17 mph] Thursday night behind the front. Seas 3–4 ft Wednesday night through Thursday night lower to around 2 ft for Friday and Saturday. ∨ WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. SEAS INCREASE TO 3-5 FT FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO STRENGTHENED S WIND WAVE MIXING WITH 1-2 FT SE SWELL. WINDS TURN BRIEFLY OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SW FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH STRONGEST SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS 3-4 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWER TO AROUND 2 FT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. [AVI2] ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories North Carolina: none. South Carolina: none. Marine: none. ∨ .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. [WARN] Synopsis...; Near Term: III; Short Term: VAO; Long Term: VAO; Aviation: III; Marine: III/VAO ∨ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...III MARINE...III/VAO [CRED]	Point Forecast Wilmington NC 20 May 7:53am EDT Today Partly sunny, with a high near 80°. North wind 6 to 11 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph. Tonight A slight chance of showers before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72°. SE wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90°. SW wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 66°. SW wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 85°. West wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Thursday Night A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly clear, with a low around 60°. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Sunny, with a high near 80°. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58°. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 79°. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 60°. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80°. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64°. Memorial Day A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80°. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Today Partly sunny, with a high near 80. North wind 6 to 11 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph. Tonight A slight chance of showers before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Southwest wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Southwest wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 85. West wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Thursday Night A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Sunny, with a high near 80. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 79. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Memorial Day A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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