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FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 172039 AFDILM 

FXUS62 KILM 172039
AFDILM [HEAD]

National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 3:39pm EST Sun Jan 17 2021 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2021 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Seasonable temperatures, dry and occasionally breezy conditions will continue through the early to mid week period as a series of cold fronts move across. Slightly milder temps work their way into the Carolinas toward the end of the work-week as high pressure over the southeast states moves offshore. Increasing rain chances possible late this week and weekend as a series of weak low pressure system pass in the vicinity of the Carolinas. 

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD AS A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE CAROLINAS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MOVES OFFSHORE. INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAROLINAS. [DISC]

Near term (through Monday night)… weak sheared mid-level vorticity will push across and off the Carolina coasts this afternoon/early evening. Mainly jetstream thin cirrus with enough low level moisture for a SCu [stratocumulus]/cumulus field as depicted by latest visible satellite imagery. Once daytime heating overwith, majority of this Cu [cumulus]/SC field will scour out. Tonight's low will stay slightly milder from the previous night given WSW-W winds staying active enough. However, will keep mins tonight closer to the GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.]/European consensus. A more potent mid-level S/W trough dropping southeast, and associated dynamics, will swing across the Carolinas Monday morning and off the Carolina coasts by mid-afternoon. Once again, limited moisture, but enough dynamics to compensate for possibly a period or 2 of partly to variably cloudy skies by daybreak Monday into Monday afternoon. This seen with various model RH [Relative Humidity] time height series. This will also be accompanied by excellent CAA [Cold Air Advection - the advection (movement) of cold air into a region] and with decent mixing from above, looking at another breezy day for Monday. Going to stay on the cooler side of guidance for Monday Max temps especially with more clouds, ie less insolation, then depicted by the models. For Monday night, winds will eventually subside to 5 mph or less, and could even decouple during the pre-dawn hours leading up to daybreak as the nose of high pressure ridges across the area from the high's center over Florida. Majority of the ILM [Wilmington NC] CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] should drop into the upper 20s to around 30 and around 32° at the immediate coast. 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SHEARED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL PUSH ACROSS AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. MAINLY JETSTREAM THIN
CIRRUS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A STRATOCU/CUMULUS
FIELD AS DEPICTED BY LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY. ONCE DAYTIME
HEATING OVERWITH, MAJORITY OF THIS CU/SC FIELD WILL SCOUR OUT.
TONIGHTS LOW WILL STAY SLIGHTLY MILDER FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT
GIVEN WSW-W WINDS STAYING ACTIVE ENOUGH. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP MINS
TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE GFS/EUROPEAN CONSENSUS. A MORE POTENT
MID-LEVEL S/W TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST, AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS,
WILL SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MON MORNING AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS BY MID-AFTN. ONCE AGAIN, LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS TO COMPENSATE FOR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OR 2 OF PARTLY TO
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES BY DAYBREAK MON INTO MON AFTN. THIS SEEN
WITH VARIOUS MODEL RH TIME HEIGHT SERIES. THIS WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY EXCELLENT CAA AND WITH DECENT MIXING FROM ABOVE,
LOOKING AT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY FOR MON. GOING TO STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MON MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY WITH MORE
CLOUDS, IE. LESS INSOLATION, THEN DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. FOR
MON NIGHT, WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5 MPH OR LESS, AND
COULD EVEN DECOUPLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK AS THE NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE HIGH`S CENTER OVER FL. MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA SHOULD
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30...AND AROUND 32 DEGREES AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. [DISC]

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday night)… surface high south of the area Tuesday morning is quickly shifted east by zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] aloft. Weak cold front, associated with fast moving low crossing southern New England, passes dry Tuesday night, pushing offshore Wednesday. A weak southern stream shortwave will arrive with the front, leading to an increase in mid-level moisture. However, dry air below 850 mb and weak forcing at best should keep the region dry, with only an increase in mid-level clouds marking the passage of the wave Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Weak cold advection on Wednesday will be more than offset by slight downslope component and sunny skies. Highs Wednesday will likely be a bit warmer than Tuesday with both days near to slightly above climo [climatology/climatological]. Lows will end up climo [climatology/climatological] with varying amounts of cloud cover, thicker for Tuesday night. 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE MORNING IS QUICKLY SHIFTED
EAST BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WEAK COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH FAST
MOVING LOW CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, PASSES DRY TUE NIGHT,
PUSHING OFFSHORE WED. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER, DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB AND WEAK FORCING AT BEST
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY, WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS MARKING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TUE NIGHT AND WED
MORNING. WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON WED WILL BE MORE THAN OFFSET BY
SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WED WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN TUE WITH BOTH DAYS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO. LOWS WILL END UP CLIMO WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUD COVER, THICKER FOR TUE NIGHT. [DISC]

Long term (Thursday through Saturday)… progressive pattern persists through the end of the week before the 5H flow starts to become amplified Sun. A series of weak surface waves/lows crossing the southeast Thursday and Friday will increase clouds and rain chances. Not much in the way of mid-level support, but a weak surface boundary dropping into the area Friday will enhance rain chances. High starts building in from the north Sat into Saturday night then shifts east Sun. Amplification of the mid-level pattern produces weak isentropic [vertical motion associated with thermal advection] lift which may lead to some rain developing during Sun. Confidence is low at this point and for now will only carry a silent POP [Probability of Precipitation]

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
THE 5H FLOW STARTS TO BECOME AMPLIFIED SUN. A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE WAVES/LOWS CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST THU AND FRI WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MID-
LEVEL SUPPORT, BUT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE
AREA FRI WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. HIGH STARTS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH SAT INTO SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST SUN.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN PRODUCES WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN DEVELOPING DURING SUN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY CARRY A
SILENT POP. [DISC]

- temperatures near to slightly above climo [climatology/climatological] Thursday/Friday 

- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THU/FRI [DISC]

- best rain chances on Friday with weak low and cold front 

- BEST RAIN CHANCES ON FRI WITH WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT [DISC]

- temperatures slightly below climo [climatology/climatological] Saturday and Sunday 

- TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO SAT AND SUN [DISC]

- potential for rain early next week with another southern stream system, however confidence is low. 

- POTENTIAL FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. [DISC]

Aviation (19Z [2pm EST] Sunday through Friday)… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Some transient mid and high clouds today with a west southwest wind. Some light ground fog possible Monday morning. A little warmer on Monday with a west wind. 

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. SOME TRANSIENT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH A WEST
SOUTHWEST WIND. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
A LITTLE WARMER ON MONDAY WITH A WEST WIND. [AVIA]

Extended outlook. VFR [Visual Flight Rules], breezy at times. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR, BREEZY AT TIMES. [DISC]

Marine.  

.MARINE... [AVIA]

Through Monday night: Small Craft Advisory raised for North Carolina waters tonight through Monday evening. Small Craft Advisory raised for SC waters from Monday morning through Monday evening. Sheared mid-level vort to pass of the Carolina coasts this evening followed by tightening of the surface PG and an increase WSW-W winds to 15–20 kt [17–23 mph] with gusts to 25 kt [29 mph], more frequent across North Carolina waters. A modest-strong mid-level S/W trough will pass across and off the Carolina coasts and offshore Monday morning through the afternoon. A re-tightening of the surface PG along with decent CAA [Cold Air Advection - the advection (movement) of cold air into a region] will combine to produce Small Craft Advisory conditions across all waters. Sustained winds will run 15 to occasionally as high as 25 kt [29 mph]… with gusts up to 25–30 kt [29–35 mph]. The higher end of these ranges will occur predominately across the ILM [Wilmington NC] North Carolina waters. Significant seas will run highest from Cape Fear south to little river inlet due to a better fetch given the wind trajectory nearly parallel to the adjacent coastline. Elsewhere, will see a range of seas, lowest near shore and highest outer waters, ie at 20 nm [23 miles] out. 

THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
SCA RAISED FOR NC WATERS TONIGHT THRU MON EVENING. SCA RAISED
FOR SC WATERS FROM MON MORNING THRU MON EVENING. SHEARED MID-
LEVEL VORT TO PASS OF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED
BY TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG AND AN INCREASE WSW-W WINDS TO 15 TO
20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT, MORE FREQUENT ACROSS NC WATERS. A
MODEST-STRONG MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WILL PASS ACROSS AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS AND OFFSHORE MON MORNING THRU THE AFTN. A RE-
TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG ALONG WITH DECENT CAA WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
RUN 15 TO OCCASIONALLY AS HIGH AS 25 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO
30 KT. THE HIGHER END OF THESE RANGES WILL OCCUR PREDOMINATELY
ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN HIGHEST FROM
CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET DUE TO A BETTER FETCH
GIVEN THE WIND TRAJECTORY NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ADJACENT
COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE, WILL SEE A RANGE OF SEAS, LOWEST NEAR
SHORE AND HIGHEST OUTER WATERS, IE AT 20 NM OUT. [AVI2]

Tuesday through Friday: southwest flow increases to near 20 kt [23 mph] late Tuesday/Tuesday night ahead of a dry cold front. Front pushes offshore early Wednesday with 10–15 kt [12–17 mph] offshore flow Wednesday and Wednesday night. The cycle repeats Thursday and Friday. Southwest flow develops Thursday, increases to around 20 kt [23 mph] Thursday night prior to passage of a cold front Friday. Front does bring some rain with it this time, but offshore flow will again be 10–15 kt [12–17 mph] behind the front Friday. Seas 2–3 ft Tuesday build to 2–4 ft Tuesday night. Offshore component and decreasing in wind speeds will drop seas to around 2 ft Wednesday into Thursday. Seas ramp back up Thursday into Thursday night with widespread 3–5 ft and a shot at 6 ft in favored areas Thursday night. Offshore winds and decreasing speeds will drop seas back to 3–4 ft Friday. 

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR 20 KT LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AHEAD
OF A DRY COLD FRONT. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY WED WITH 10 TO
15 KT OFFSHORE FLOW WED AND WED NIGHT. THE CYCLE REPEATS THU AND
FRI. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THU, INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KT THU
NIGHT PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRI. FRONT DOES BRING
SOME RAIN WITH IT THIS TIME, BUT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN BE 10
TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE BUILD TO 2 TO
4 FT TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND DECREASING IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP SEAS TO AROUND 2 FT WED INTO THU. SEAS RAMP BACK UP
THU INTO THU NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 FT AND A SHOT AT 6 FT
IN FAVORED AREAS THU NIGHT. OFFSHORE WINDS AND DECREASING SPEEDS
WILL DROP SEAS BACK TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI. [AVI2]

ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • South Carolina: none.
  • North Carolina: none.
  • Marine: Small Craft Advisory from 9am Monday to midnight EST Monday night for AMZ254–256.
  • Small Craft Advisory from 9pm this evening to midnight EST Monday night for AMZ250–252. 
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ250-252. [WARN]

Synopsis: DCH; Near Term: DCH; Short Term: III; Long Term: III; Aviation: 43; Marine: DCH/III 

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/III [CRED]

Point Forecast

Wilmington NC

17 Jan 3:53pm EST

Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 37°. West wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
M.L.King Day Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 52°. West wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Monday Night Clear, with a low around 31°. West wind 5 to 11 mph.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 55°. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 41°. SW wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57°.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38°.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°.
Thursday Night A chance of showers after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 52°.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 34°.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 52°.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. West wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
M.L.King Day
Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 52. West wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 31. West wind 5 to 11 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 55. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 41. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: