Wilmington NC WX RSS feed

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 062332 AFDILM ∨

FXUS62 KILM 062332
AFDILM [HEAD]

National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 7:32pm EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2025 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue ahead of a cold front that reaches the area late Monday, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier weather is expected Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure brings Canadian air southward. The next frontal system will approach the Carolinas late in the week with a chance of showers. ∨

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT REACHES THE AREA LATE MONDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CANADIAN AIR
SOUTHWARD. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. [DISC]

Update. No significant changes to the forecast with the early evening update. New zones will be issued shorty after 8pm to address any surf headlines for Monday. ∨

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATE. NEW ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTY AFTER 8 PM TO ADDRESS
ANY SURF HEADLINES FOR MONDAY. [DISC]

Near term (through Monday)… embedded low pressure along a cold front approaching from the west will slow the approach of a line of showers tonight. As shortwave passes by aloft, the line of showers to our NW could push into our inland areas around midnight. Rain chances won't progress through the area until the larger trough starts to push in Monday morning, where rain chances will expand through the afternoon from NW to SE. MUCAPE [Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy, a measure of instability in the troposphere] will be ~1000 J/kg [specific energy] with bulk shear around 50 kts [58 mph]. The limiting factor for severe weather will be instability amidst cloudiness, but east of I-95 holes in the clouds come the afternoon should lead to decent heating as highs rise into the mid 80s. Due to the timing of the line, these ingredients will lead to a marginal (threat 1 of 5) risk for severe weather cross our area, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts in stronger storms. This threat will last through the end of the period as the line continues to progress towards the coast into the evening. ∨

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL SLOW THE APPROACH OF A LINE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. AS
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY ALOFT, THE LINE OF SHOWERS TO OUR NW COULD
PUSH INTO OUR INLAND AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WON`T
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL THE LARGER TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH
IN MONDAY MORNING, WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE. MUCAPE WILL BE ~1000 J/KG WITH BULK
SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE INSTABILITY AMIDST CLOUDINESS, BUT EAST OF I-95 HOLES IN THE
CLOUDS COME THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT HEATING AS
HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID 80S. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE LINE,
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL LEAD TO A MARGINAL (THREAT 1 OF 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CROSS OUR AREA, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. THIS THREAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE COAST INTO THE EVENING. [DISC]

Short term (Monday night)… surface cold front is slow to push offshore Monday night due to winds aloft becoming fairly parallel in orientation to the front. This in combo with the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak and deep moisture flux out of the SSW will allow for pockets of moderate to heavy rain Monday evening, before tapering off from west to east overnight as winds shift from SW to NW behind the front. Total QPF [Quantitative Precipitation Forecast] for Monday and Monday night averages between 0.75–1.25 inch across the area, with locally higher amounts possible: 90th percentile is 2–3 inches. Low temps Monday night around 50°. ∨

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WINDS ALOFT BECOMING FAIRLY PARALLEL IN ORIENTATION TO THE
FRONT. THIS IN COMBO WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DEEP MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THE SSW WILL
ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MONDAY EVENING,
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. TOTAL QPF FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AVERAGES BETWEEN 0.75-1.25 INCH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE: 90TH PERCENTILE IS 2-3 INCHES.
LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES. [DISC]

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)… dry weather returns starting Tuesday as broad surface high pressure builds in from the NW. Main item of note is the cooler temps early this period, due to the post frontal CAA [Cold Air Advection - the advection (movement) of cold air into a region]. Following highs only in the low/mid 60s Tuesday, expect lows Tuesday night in the mid/upper 30s over most inland areas where patchy frost is also possible as winds diminish. Still a lot of uncertainty over the frost potential due to marginal temps and RH [Relative Humidity] values that are not particularly high, but will maintain mention in the HWO [Hazardous Weather Outlook] for Tuesday night. Conditions Wednesday quite similar to those of Tuesday, however expect slightly higher temps (lows mainly in the 40s) Wednesday night as the surface high moves offshore. ∨

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER RETURNS STARTING TUESDAY AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. MAIN ITEM OF NOTE IS THE COOLER TEMPS
EARLY THIS PERIOD, DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL CAA. FOLLOWING HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S TUESDAY, EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER MOST INLAND AREAS WHERE PATCHY FROST IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS WINDS DIMINISH. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE FROST POTENTIAL DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPS AND RH VALUES THAT ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN THE HWO FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TUESDAY, HOWEVER EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS (LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. [DISC]

A warming trend ensues for Thursday and Friday, with high temps back in the 70s. Focus late in the week will be on increasing rain chances ahead of the next frontal system. A small sample of guidance continues to hint at some light precipitation late Thursday as return flow increases, but not seeing enough lift to support adding POPs [Probability of Precipitation] to the forecast then at this time. Maintained the high chance (50%) of showers Friday in association with the front and associated upper-level trough. Still some uncertainty to be worked out regarding thunder chances and when the precipitation will end, but it does appear likely that the weekend will be dry with seasonable temps. ∨

A WARMING TREND ENSUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS
BACK IN THE 70S. FOCUS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE ON INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. A SMALL SAMPLE
OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATE THURSDAY
AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES, BUT NOT SEEING ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
ADDING POPS TO THE FORECAST THEN AT THIS TIME. MAINTAINED THE
HIGH CHANCE (50%) OF SHOWERS FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPR-LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO
BE WORKED OUT REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES AND WHEN THE PRECIP
WILL END, BUT IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. [DISC]

Aviation (00Z [8pm EDT] Monday through Friday)… all sites VFR [Visual Flight Rules] currently and for the most part should remain so until later Monday afternoon when solid area of showers and isolated thunder will move in from the west with mainly lower ceilings. It appears guidance has backed off MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings moving onshore later tonight as well. ∨

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES VFR CURRENTLY AND FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN SO
UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH MAINLY LOWER
CEILINGS. IT APPEARS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF MVFR CEILINGS
MOVING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. [AVIA]

Extended outlook. A cold front approaching from the west will bring MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] restrictions in showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday with VFR [Visual Flight Rules] likely returning by Tuesday afternoon behind the front. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through Thursday. Restrictions may return Friday due to an approaching frontal system. ∨

EXTENDED OUTLOOK... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VFR LIKELY RETURNING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN
FRIDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. [DISC]

Marine. Through Monday… Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger through the period due to increased southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. S/SW winds will gust ~25 kts [29 mph] tonight, increasing to near 30 kts [35 mph] Monday as the front starts to push in during the day. Some 6 ft seas could sit around 20 nm [23 miles] offshore tonight, increasing to 5–7 ft Monday in response to the winds. A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the waters during the late afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. ∨

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD
DUE TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. S/SW WINDS WILL GUST ~25 KTS TONIGHT, INCREASING TO NEAR
30 KTS MONDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH IN DURING THE DAY.
SOME 6 FT SEAS COULD SIT AROUND 20 NM OFFSHORE TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO 5-7 FT MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE WATERS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. [AVIA]

Monday night through Friday… the Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through early Tuesday morning, due to post-frontal frequent gusts up to 25 kt [29 mph] and seas up to 6 ft. Improving marine conditions thereafter as surface high pressure builds into the area, and no headlines are anticipated, even ahead of the next frontal system this Thursday/Friday. ∨

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, DUE TO POST-FRONTAL FREQUENT
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA,
AND NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED, EVEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. [AVI2]

Tides/coastal flooding. Other - rip currents: increasing southerly winds and seas around offshore high pressure and ahead of an incoming cold front are expected to create a high risk of rip currents today and Monday, mainly for south-facing beaches. A high risk for rip currents is in effect for Brunswick today, and both Brunswick and northern Horry today and Monday, with surf heights up to 3–5 ft. ∨

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND MONDAY,
MAINLY FOR SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
IS IN EFFECT FOR BRUNSWICK TODAY, AND BOTH BRUNSWICK AND
NORTHERN HORRY TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 3-5 FT. [AVIA]

ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

North Carolina: beach hazards statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ106–108.
High risk for rip currents until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ110.
South Carolina: beach hazards statement until 8pm EDT this evening for SCZ054–056.
Marine: Small Craft Advisory from 2am Monday to 6am EDT Tuesday for AMZ250–252–254–256. ∨

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256. [WARN]

Synopsis: ILM; Update: 15; Near Term: LEW; Short Term: MAS; Long Term: MAS; Aviation: SHK; Marine: MAS/LEW; Tides/Coastal Flooding ∨

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...15
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...MAS/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... [CRED]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 062332 AFDILM ∨ FXUS62 KILM 062332 AFDILM [HEAD] National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 7:32pm EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 732 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2025 [HEAD] Synopsis. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue ahead of a cold front that reaches the area late Monday, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier weather is expected Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure brings Canadian air southward. The next frontal system will approach the Carolinas late in the week with a chance of showers. ∨ .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES THE AREA LATE MONDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. [DISC] Update. No significant changes to the forecast with the early evening update. New zones will be issued shorty after 8pm to address any surf headlines for Monday. ∨ .UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. NEW ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTY AFTER 8 PM TO ADDRESS ANY SURF HEADLINES FOR MONDAY. [DISC] Near term (through Monday)… embedded low pressure along a cold front approaching from the west will slow the approach of a line of showers tonight. As shortwave passes by aloft, the line of showers to our NW could push into our inland areas around midnight. Rain chances won't progress through the area until the larger trough starts to push in Monday morning, where rain chances will expand through the afternoon from NW to SE. MUCAPE [Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy, a measure of instability in the troposphere] will be ~1000 J/kg [specific energy] with bulk shear around 50 kts [58 mph]. The limiting factor for severe weather will be instability amidst cloudiness, but east of I-95 holes in the clouds come the afternoon should lead to decent heating as highs rise into the mid 80s. Due to the timing of the line, these ingredients will lead to a marginal (threat 1 of 5) risk for severe weather cross our area, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts in stronger storms. This threat will last through the end of the period as the line continues to progress towards the coast into the evening. ∨ .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SLOW THE APPROACH OF A LINE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. AS SHORTWAVE PASSES BY ALOFT, THE LINE OF SHOWERS TO OUR NW COULD PUSH INTO OUR INLAND AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WON`T PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL THE LARGER TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH IN MONDAY MORNING, WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE. MUCAPE WILL BE ~1000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE INSTABILITY AMIDST CLOUDINESS, BUT EAST OF I-95 HOLES IN THE CLOUDS COME THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT HEATING AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID 80S. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE LINE, THESE INGREDIENTS WILL LEAD TO A MARGINAL (THREAT 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CROSS OUR AREA, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. THIS THREAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARDS THE COAST INTO THE EVENING. [DISC] Short term (Monday night)… surface cold front is slow to push offshore Monday night due to winds aloft becoming fairly parallel in orientation to the front. This in combo with the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak and deep moisture flux out of the SSW will allow for pockets of moderate to heavy rain Monday evening, before tapering off from west to east overnight as winds shift from SW to NW behind the front. Total QPF [Quantitative Precipitation Forecast] for Monday and Monday night averages between 0.75–1.25 inch across the area, with locally higher amounts possible: 90th percentile is 2–3 inches. Low temps Monday night around 50°. ∨ .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... SFC COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO WINDS ALOFT BECOMING FAIRLY PARALLEL IN ORIENTATION TO THE FRONT. THIS IN COMBO WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR- LEVEL JET STREAK AND DEEP MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THE SSW WILL ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MONDAY EVENING, BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. TOTAL QPF FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AVERAGES BETWEEN 0.75-1.25 INCH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE: 90TH PERCENTILE IS 2-3 INCHES. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES. [DISC] Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)… dry weather returns starting Tuesday as broad surface high pressure builds in from the NW. Main item of note is the cooler temps early this period, due to the post frontal CAA [Cold Air Advection - the advection (movement) of cold air into a region]. Following highs only in the low/mid 60s Tuesday, expect lows Tuesday night in the mid/upper 30s over most inland areas where patchy frost is also possible as winds diminish. Still a lot of uncertainty over the frost potential due to marginal temps and RH [Relative Humidity] values that are not particularly high, but will maintain mention in the HWO [Hazardous Weather Outlook] for Tuesday night. Conditions Wednesday quite similar to those of Tuesday, however expect slightly higher temps (lows mainly in the 40s) Wednesday night as the surface high moves offshore. ∨ .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DRY WEATHER RETURNS STARTING TUESDAY AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. MAIN ITEM OF NOTE IS THE COOLER TEMPS EARLY THIS PERIOD, DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL CAA. FOLLOWING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S TUESDAY, EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 30S OVER MOST INLAND AREAS WHERE PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS WINDS DIMINISH. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FROST POTENTIAL DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPS AND RH VALUES THAT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TUESDAY, HOWEVER EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS (LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. [DISC] A warming trend ensues for Thursday and Friday, with high temps back in the 70s. Focus late in the week will be on increasing rain chances ahead of the next frontal system. A small sample of guidance continues to hint at some light precipitation late Thursday as return flow increases, but not seeing enough lift to support adding POPs [Probability of Precipitation] to the forecast then at this time. Maintained the high chance (50%) of showers Friday in association with the front and associated upper-level trough. Still some uncertainty to be worked out regarding thunder chances and when the precipitation will end, but it does appear likely that the weekend will be dry with seasonable temps. ∨ A WARMING TREND ENSUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE 70S. FOCUS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE ON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. A SMALL SAMPLE OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATE THURSDAY AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES, BUT NOT SEEING ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT ADDING POPS TO THE FORECAST THEN AT THIS TIME. MAINTAINED THE HIGH CHANCE (50%) OF SHOWERS FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPR-LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE WORKED OUT REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES AND WHEN THE PRECIP WILL END, BUT IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. [DISC] Aviation (00Z [8pm EDT] Monday through Friday)… all sites VFR [Visual Flight Rules] currently and for the most part should remain so until later Monday afternoon when solid area of showers and isolated thunder will move in from the west with mainly lower ceilings. It appears guidance has backed off MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings moving onshore later tonight as well. ∨ .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ALL SITES VFR CURRENTLY AND FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH MAINLY LOWER CEILINGS. IT APPEARS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF MVFR CEILINGS MOVING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. [AVIA] Extended outlook. A cold front approaching from the west will bring MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] restrictions in showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday with VFR [Visual Flight Rules] likely returning by Tuesday afternoon behind the front. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through Thursday. Restrictions may return Friday due to an approaching frontal system. ∨ EXTENDED OUTLOOK... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VFR LIKELY RETURNING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN FRIDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. [DISC] Marine. Through Monday… Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger through the period due to increased southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. S/SW winds will gust ~25 kts [29 mph] tonight, increasing to near 30 kts [35 mph] Monday as the front starts to push in during the day. Some 6 ft seas could sit around 20 nm [23 miles] offshore tonight, increasing to 5–7 ft Monday in response to the winds. A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the waters during the late afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. ∨ .MARINE... THROUGH MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. S/SW WINDS WILL GUST ~25 KTS TONIGHT, INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KTS MONDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH IN DURING THE DAY. SOME 6 FT SEAS COULD SIT AROUND 20 NM OFFSHORE TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-7 FT MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. [AVIA] Monday night through Friday… the Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through early Tuesday morning, due to post-frontal frequent gusts up to 25 kt [29 mph] and seas up to 6 ft. Improving marine conditions thereafter as surface high pressure builds into the area, and no headlines are anticipated, even ahead of the next frontal system this Thursday/Friday. ∨ MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, DUE TO POST-FRONTAL FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT. IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA, AND NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED, EVEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. [AVI2] Tides/coastal flooding. Other - rip currents: increasing southerly winds and seas around offshore high pressure and ahead of an incoming cold front are expected to create a high risk of rip currents today and Monday, mainly for south-facing beaches. A high risk for rip currents is in effect for Brunswick today, and both Brunswick and northern Horry today and Monday, with surf heights up to 3–5 ft. ∨ .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... OTHER - RIP CURRENTS: INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY FOR SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR BRUNSWICK TODAY, AND BOTH BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN HORRY TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 3-5 FT. [AVIA] ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories North Carolina: beach hazards statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ106–108. High risk for rip currents until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ110. South Carolina: beach hazards statement until 8pm EDT this evening for SCZ054–056. Marine: Small Craft Advisory from 2am Monday to 6am EDT Tuesday for AMZ250–252–254–256. ∨ .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110. SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. [WARN] Synopsis: ILM; Update: 15; Near Term: LEW; Short Term: MAS; Long Term: MAS; Aviation: SHK; Marine: MAS/LEW; Tides/Coastal Flooding ∨ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...15 NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...SHK MARINE...MAS/LEW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... [CRED]	Point Forecast Wilmington NC 6 Apr 10:53pm EDT Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69°. SW wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Monday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 79°. Breezy, with a SW wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night Showers and thunderstorms before 3am, then a chance of showers. Low around 52°. West wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Tuesday Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 65°. NW wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 41°. North wind around 6 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 63°. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47°. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 70°. Thursday Night A chance of showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57°. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 73°. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67°. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 46°. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 68°. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Southwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Monday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night Showers and thunderstorms before 3am, then a chance of showers. Low around 52. West wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Tuesday Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 65. Northwest wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 41. North wind around 6 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 63. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Thursday Night A chance of showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 68.
This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: