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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 141800 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 141800
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 11:00am PDT Mon Oct 14 2019 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2019 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Seasonably mild conditions will persist through Tuesday. A frontal system will move through the region late Wednesday and may produce light rain over the northern portions of the North Bay. Post-frontal breezy conditions and cooler temperatures are expected from late Wednesday through Thursday and may persist into the upcoming weekend. 

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH BAY. POST-FRONTAL BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
MAY PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 08:22am PDT Monday… patchy low clouds remain along the coast in addition to some fog in the North Bay. Expecting fog and low clouds to clear by late this morning. Temperatures across the region this morning are fairly similar to yesterday with areas under cloud cover a few degrees warmer. Most locations remain in the 40s to low 50s. Little change in afternoon high temperatures are forecast for today with upper 60s to low 70s along the coast to 70s and low 80s inland. Slight warming will occur tomorrow as the upper trough over the region shifts further east and a weak short wave ridge briefly sets up over the area. No updates needed to the forecast this morning. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:22 AM PDT MONDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST IN ADDITION TO SOME FOG IN THE NORTH BAY.
EXPECTING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR BY LATE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH AREAS UNDER CLOUD COVER A FEW DEGREES WARMER. MOST
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ALONG THE COAST TO 70S AND LOW 80S INLAND. SLIGHT WARMING WILL
OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. [DISC]

Previous discussion… as of 3:27am PDT Monday. Patchy low clouds persist along portions of the coast this morning and have spread locally inland down into the Salinas Valley. Meanwhile, more widespread fog is being reported over the Sonoma Valley with temperatures ranging from the middle 40s to lower 50s region-wide. This is in response to a mid/upper level trough over much of the West Coast. Low clouds and fog will begin to dissipate after sunrise with temperatures warming into the 70s to lower 80s inland this afternoon. Coastal locations will likely only warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s as onshore flow persists. 

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:27 AM PDT MONDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND HAVE SPREAD
LOCALLY INLAND DOWN INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. MEANWHILE, MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE SONOMA VALLEY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S REGION-WIDE.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. [DISC]

Temperatures look to warm by a few degrees heading into Tuesday as a weak short-wave ridge will move over the region in wake of the exiting mid/upper level trough. Conditions will cool slightly over the northern portion of the region on Wednesday in advance of an approaching weather system. The core of this system will push inland over the Pacific Northwest and drive a weak frontal boundary into Northern California late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Thus, a slight chance of rain remains in the forecast for the North Bay. However, measurable rainfall south of northern Sonoma County appear unlikely as the frontal system dissipates Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This system will also result in cooler temperatures region-wide through late week. 

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM BY A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO TUESDAY
AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF
THE EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DRIVE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE NORTH BAY. HOWEVER, MEASURABLE RAINFALL SOUTH OF NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY APPEAR UNLIKELY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DISSIPATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE THROUGH LATE WEEK. [DISC]

In addition, locally gusty post-frontal northwest winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday, primarily in coastal locations. Breezy conditions will likely continue through late week and potentially into the upcoming weekend with temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages. Ongoing dry weather conditions are also likely to persist late in the forecast period. 

IN ADDITION, LOCALLY GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, PRIMARILY IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. ONGOING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 11:00am PDT Monday… for 18Z [11am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Satellite imagery indicates stratus clearing to the coast this morning with all TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites now VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions will persist through the afternoon hours. Weak pressure gradients will lead to light winds today, becoming onshore this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will move over the area today through tonight. This may compress the marine layer somewhat so any ceilings tonight may be lower in some places than this morning. Ceilings will redevelop in some locations overnight tonight, especially near the coast, with fog likely once again in the North Bay valleys and KSTS [Santa Rosa CA]

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT MONDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES STRATUS CLEARING TO THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH
ALL TAF SITES NOW VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
TODAY, BECOMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS MAY COMPRESS
THE MARINE LAYER SOMEWHAT SO ANY CIGS TONIGHT MAY BE LOWER IN SOME
PLACES THAN THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL REDEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, WITH FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND KSTS. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions are forecast to prevail. Light northerly winds will become onshore this afternoon around 10–15 kt [12–17 mph]. Models suggest patchy stratus will develop over the Bay late tonight through Tuesday morning. At this time not expecting ceilings to develop at the terminal through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
10-15 KT. MODELS SUGGEST PATCHY STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BAY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING
CIGS TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the afternoon and evening. Patchy ceilings may develop at times over the approach on Tuesday morning, but low confidence on extent. 

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PATCHY CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES OVER THE APPROACH ON TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… ceilings have cleared and VFR [Visual Flight Rules] will continue through the afternoon. Light onshore winds through the afternoon becoming light southeasterly overnight. Patchy ceilings developing this evening and will continue overnight through Tuesday morning. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CIGS HAVE CLEARED AND VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY CIGS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 2:35am PDT Monday… generally light northwest winds will prevail over the coastal waters through Columbus day. Mixed seas will continue over the next few days with a light shorter period northwest swell and a light southerly swell. A larger northwest swell is forecast to arrive later this week with forerunners expected in the next couple days. 

.MARINE...AS OF 2:35 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH COLUMBUS DAY.
MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A LIGHT
SHORTER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SWELL. A
LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THIS WEEK WITH
FORERUNNERS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Today: none. 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE. [WARN]

Public Forecast: AS/Rgass; Aviation: ST; Marine: ST 

PUBLIC FORECAST: AS/RGASS
AVIATION: ST
MARINE: ST [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay Airport

14 Oct 10:20am PDT

Columbus Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 68°. SSW wind 3 to 5 mph.
Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46°. Calm wind.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 68°. Light NW wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 46°. NW wind 7 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 66°. NW wind 7 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 66°.
Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 48°.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 67°.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49°.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 66°.
Saturday Night Clear, with a low around 49°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 69°.
Columbus Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. South southwest wind 3 to 5 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Calm wind.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Light northwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Increasing clouds, with a low around 46. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 66.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 48.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 67.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 66.
Saturday Night
Clear, with a low around 49.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 69.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: