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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 030531 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 030531
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:31pm PDT Sat Jul 2 2022 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1031 PM PDT SAT JUL 2 2022 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Well below normal temperatures Sunday and remaining seasonably cool through midweek. Marine stratus will continue to impact the area from the evenings through the mornings. A weak cold front passes through on Monday providing the chance for light showers or drizzle, best chances in North Bay. Warming temperatures follow the holiday with hot temperatures possible inland next weekend. 

.SYNOPSIS...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND REMAINING
SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MIDWEEK. MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA FROM THE EVENINGS THROUGH THE MORNINGS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY PROVIDING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE, BEST CHANCES IN NORTH BAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW THE HOLIDAY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE INLAND NEXT
WEEKEND. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 09:43pm PDT Saturday… cooler temperatures prevailed today as a broad mid/upper trough set up off the coast. The warmest spots in interior southern Monterey and San Benito Counties managed to reach the upper 80s but most elsewhere experienced 60s and 70s. The marine layer certainly made its presence known, as a steady feed of clouds kept SF and Oakland under gray skies the whole day with temps only in the low 60s. Also notable are some locally strong and gusty winds in interior East Bay passes, as Altamont RAWS [Remote Automated Weather Station] is registering 60+ MPH gusts. The hills, gaps and passes will likely see strong but slowly diminishing winds through tonight. Current SFO [San Francisco CA]-SAC [Sacramento CA] gradient is at 3.9 mb which is down from 4.6 mb earlier this evening. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:43 PM PDT SATURDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES
PREVAILED TODAY AS A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH SET UP OFF THE COAST.
THE WARMEST SPOTS IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES MANAGED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S BUT MOST ELSEWHERE
EXPERIENCED 60S AND 70S. THE MARINE LAYER CERTAINLY MADE ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN, AS A STEADY FEED OF CLOUDS KEPT SF AND OAKLAND UNDER
GRAY SKIES THE WHOLE DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. ALSO
NOTABLE ARE SOME LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN INTERIOR EAST BAY
PASSES, AS ALTAMONT RAWS IS REGISTERING 60+ MPH GUSTS. THE HILLS,
GAPS AND PASSES WILL LIKELY SEE STRONG BUT SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT SFO-SAC GRADIENT IS AT 3.9 MB WHICH IS DOWN
FROM 4.6 MB EARLIER THIS EVENING. [DISC]

Current satellite imagery shows similar stratus coverage to last night's, with most of SF Bay and coastal areas under clouds, and stratus progressing into the valleys. The marine layer deepened to 2500 ft today but cooler air moving in aloft is helping to disrupt the marine inversion. Still expecting wide areal stratus coverage tonight through Sunday morning, before peeling back to the coast. 

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIMILAR STRATUS COVERAGE TO LAST
NIGHT`S, WITH MOST OF SF BAY AND COASTAL AREAS UNDER CLOUDS, AND
STRATUS PROGRESSING INTO THE VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED TO
2500 FT TODAY BUT COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT IS HELPING TO DISRUPT
THE MARINE INVERSION. STILL EXPECTING WIDE AREAL STRATUS COVERAGE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE PEELING BACK TO THE COAST. [DISC]

An even cooler day is expected tomorrow, as the trough pivots onshore, bringing cool moist air with it. Not much change at the coast, but inland areas will cool by a few degrees at least. Thus, highs in the 60s/70s will prevail, with perhaps low 80s in the warmest southern interior spots. Models are also showing greater chances for clearing in the afternoon, so it might even feel warmer along the coast. 

AN EVEN COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS
ONSHORE, BRINGING COOL MOIST AIR WITH IT. NOT MUCH CHANGE AT THE
COAST, BUT INLAND AREAS WILL COOL BY A FEW DEGREES AT LEAST. THUS,
HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S WILL PREVAIL, WITH PERHAPS LOW 80S IN THE
WARMEST SOUTHERN INTERIOR SPOTS. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING GREATER
CHANCES FOR CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON, SO IT MIGHT EVEN FEEL WARMER
ALONG THE COAST. [DISC]

Cool conditions continue on the fourth and through the first half of the week, with even some chances for showers. Please read below for more on the weekly outlook. 

COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE 4TH AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK, WITH EVEN SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. PLEASE READ BELOW
FOR MORE ON THE WEEKLY OUTLOOK. [DISC]

Previous discussion… as of 01:30pm PDT Saturday.  

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:30 PM PDT SATURDAY... [DISC]

As for the Fourth of July, it will be another cooler day with the passage of a weak front moving through. Models are consistently providing chances for drizzle, and while it may extend farther, the main target in questions is the Sonoma coastline. Once the front moves onshore, the chances fizzle out like a firework. Speaking of, the skies being clear will largely depend on the progression of the front. Too slow and it stays cloudy, a bit quicker and there could be just enough clearing. Models are leaning toward the clearer trend (except for the immediate coastline), clouds return by 11pm. It will be interesting to see how the higher res models that come in on Sunday handle the approaching front and cloud cover. Nevertheless, we hope that everyone has an enjoyable holiday. Just remember to not be that spark that could start a wildfire. 

AS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY, IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER DAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH. MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY
PROVIDING CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE, AND WHILE IT MAY EXTEND FARTHER, THE
MAIN TARGET IN QUESTIONS IS THE SONOMA COASTLINE. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, THE CHANCES FIZZLE OUT LIKE A FIREWORK. SPEAKING OF,
THE SKIES BEING CLEAR WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT. TOO SLOW AND IT STAYS CLOUDY, A BIT QUICKER AND THERE COULD
BE JUST ENOUGH CLEARING. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD THE CLEARER TREND
(EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE), CLOUDS RETURN BY 11 PM. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE HIGHER RES MODELS THAT COME IN ON
SUNDAY HANDLE THE APPROACHING FRONT AND CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS,
WE HOPE THAT EVERYONE HAS AN ENJOYABLE HOLIDAY. JUST REMEMBER TO NOT
BE THAT SPARK THAT COULD START A WILDFIRE. [DISC]

Side note for the weather buffs: Tropical Storm Bonnie has formed off the coasts of costa rica and nicaragua. Under the guidance of the building ridge next week, long range models have it simply drifting westward out to the sea; but, it will be monitored just to ensure that no northward progression takes place. 

SIDE NOTE FOR THE WEATHER BUFFS: TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAS FORMED
OFF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE NEXT WEEK, LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE IT SIMPLY
DRIFTING WESTWARD OUT TO THE SEA; BUT, IT WILL BE MONITORED JUST TO
ENSURE THAT NO NORTHWARD PROGRESSION TAKES PLACE. [DISC]

A warming trend will then take place next week after the holiday as a ridge out east back builds toward California. Hot temperatures could be expected next weekend, but a lot will be dependent upon how far west the ridge builds. The longwave trough mentioned at the beginning of this discussion does not move a terrible far amount. Strongest confidence for the chance of triple digit heat would be southern Monterey County and possibly the far interior portions of the East Bay. Being seven days out, there is still much that could change, particularly the position of the trough, but it looks like Californians should be prepared for some heat. 

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK AFTER THE HOLIDAY AS
A RIDGE OUT EAST BACK BUILDS TOWARD CALIFORNIA. HOT TEMPERATURES
COULD BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND, BUT A LOT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
FAR WEST THE RIDGE BUILDS. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS DISCUSSION DOES NOT MOVE A TERRIBLE FAR AMOUNT.
STRONGEST CONFIDENCE FOR THE CHANCE OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WOULD BE
SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY AND POSSIBLY THE FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE EAST BAY. BEING SEVEN DAYS OUT, THERE IS STILL MUCH THAT
COULD CHANGE, PARTICULARLY THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE CALIFORNIANS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SOME HEAT. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:31pm PDT Saturday… for the 06Z [11pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Ceilings currently holding at MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] levels, as the marine layer holds firm. Sunday morning will once again have onshore breezy winds through the night, and with the upper level low interacting with the marine layer, localized drizzle is possible with models focusing on the Monterey Bay. As a weak front approaches the Bay Area, better chances for VFR [Visual Flight Rules] clearing on Sunday, projecting around 18 to 19Z [12pm PDT], but expect cloud cover to remain hugged along the immediate coastline. Increased high clouds Sunday afternoon as the front approaches. Models are projecting a later return of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions on Sunday night with another chance of patchy coastal drizzle, particularly in the North Bay. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:31 PM PDT SATURDAY...FOR THE 06Z TAFS. CIGS
CURRENTLY HOLDING AT MVFR LEVELS, AS THE MARINE LAYER HOLDS FIRM.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE ONSHORE BREEZY WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT, AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH THE
MARINE LAYER, LOCALIZED DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH MODELS FOCUSING
ON THE MONTEREY BAY. AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE BAY AREA,
BETTER CHANCES FOR VFR CLEARING ON SUNDAY, PROJECTING AROUND 18 TO
19Z, BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN HUGGED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE PROJECTING A LATER RETURN OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PATCHY COASTAL
DRIZZLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH BAY. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… while the stronger gusts are just about over, west winds will remain breezy through the night. The terminal will remain under cloud cover through Sunday morning. Mostly MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings, but the remains a slight chance for IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings after 12Z [5am PDT]. Clearing likely by 19Z [12pm PDT] for VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Winds will increase again on Sunday, up to 25 knots [29 mph]. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings later Sunday night as winds diminish. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...WHILE THE STRONGER GUSTS ARE JUST ABOUT OVER, WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE TERMINAL WILL
REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS,
BUT THE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 12Z. CLEARING
LIKELY BY 19Z FOR VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY, UP TO
25 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. [AVI2]

KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay… MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings through the night with a chance for IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings. Patchy drizzle will be possible early Sunday morning. Ceilings are expected to clear after 18Z [11am PDT]. Onshore winds will increase Sunday afternoon under VFR [Visual Flight Rules] skies. Clouds will increase at the end of the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period, but models are keeping chances for clouds to fill in after 06Z [11pm PDT]

MONTEREY BAY...MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR
CIGS. PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 18Z. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER VFR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT MODELS ARE KEEPING CHANCES FOR CLOUDS TO
FILL IN AFTER 06Z. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 08:41pm PDT Saturday… breezy but gradually easing northwest winds across the waters overnight. A shift in the winds occurs tomorrow with an increased westerly component across the northern and outer waters by the afternoon. Meanwhile, breezy northwest winds will persist across the coast of Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, especially south of Pigeon Point [Pescadero CA] and Point Sur [Big Sur CA]. A shift towards light southerly winds is expected Monday into Tuesday. Northwest winds return Wednesday. Expect easing wind waves beginning tomorrow through early next week before they rebuild mid week. A light long period southerly swell will also be mixed in with these wind driven seas. 

.MARINE...AS OF 08:41 PM PDT SATURDAY...BREEZY BUT GRADUALLY
EASING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS OCCURS TOMORROW WITH AN INCREASED WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND OUTER WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COAST OF SANTA CRUZ AND
MONTEREY COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT AND POINT SUR.
A SHIFT TOWARDS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY. EXPECT EASING WIND
WAVES BEGINNING TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THEY
REBUILD MID WEEK. A LIGHT LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO BE
MIXED IN WITH THESE WIND DRIVEN SEAS. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Tonight: Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] until 3am Small Craft AdvisoryPt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Lorber/DK; Aviation: DK; Marine: DRP 

PUBLIC FORECAST: LORBER/DK
AVIATION: DK
MARINE: DRP [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay Airport

02 Jul 10:15pm PDT

Tonight Cloudy, with a low around 52°. WNW wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Sunday A slight chance of drizzle before 11am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 59°. WNW wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. WNW wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light after midnight.
Independence Day Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63°. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning.
Monday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 65°.
Tuesday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55°.
Wednesday Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 64°.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Tonight
Cloudy, with a low around 52. West northwest wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Sunday
A slight chance of drizzle before 11am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 59. West northwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. West northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light after midnight.
Independence Day
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning.
Monday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 65.
Tuesday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: