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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 190349 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 190349
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 8:49pm PDT Thu Aug 18 2022 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
849 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2022 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Warm and dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of the week across the interior while cooler conditions persist near the coast. Temperatures then cool to near seasonal averages region-wide by Sunday and Monday. 

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS
PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES REGION-WIDE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 08:47pm PDT Thursday. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:47 PM PDT THURSDAY... [DISC]

No changes this evening as the forecast is on track. Please see below for more details. 

NO CHANGES THIS EVENING AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. PLEASE SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. [DISC]

Previous discussion… as of 02:40pm PDT Thursday. The storm system from yesterday continues to exit to the NE. The upper level low/shortwave trough is currently near the California/Oregon border. In its wake, high pressure is rebuilding over the region. Afternoon satellite looks more "summer-like" for the Bay Area and Central Coast with low clouds along the coast and inland sunshine. There's also enough lingering upper level moisture for a few cumulus clouds over the Diablo and Gabilan ranges. Not expecting any further develop besides some cumulus. Pretty solid temperature spread across the region with micro-climates in full effect. In fact, given the increased insolation today across the interior temperatures are running warmer than yesterday. The hottest interior (far N and East Bay, Monterey/San Benito) locations will top out just over a 100°. That is a stark contrast to the coast, where temps remain in the 60s. 

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM FROM
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE NE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE CA/OR BORDER. IN ITS
WAKE, HIGH PRESSURE IS REBUILDING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON
SATELLITE LOOKS MORE "SUMMER-LIKE" FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST WITH LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND SUNSHINE. THERE`S
ALSO ENOUGH LINGERING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE DIABLO AND GABILAN RANGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FURTHER DEVELOP BESIDES SOME CUMULUS. PRETTY SOLID TEMPERATURE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MICRO-CLIMATES IN FULL EFFECT. IN
FACT, GIVEN THE INCREASED INSOLATION TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE HOTTEST
INTERIOR (FAR N AND E BAY, MONTEREY/SAN BENITO) LOCATIONS WILL TOP
OUT JUST OVER A 100 DEGREES. THAT IS A STARK CONTRAST TO THE
COAST, WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 60S. [DISC]

Minor day to day changes in the overall weather heading into the weekend as high pressure remain over the region. That means night and morning clouds will be common clearing back to the coast each afternoon. Given the higher 500 mb heights overhead the marine layer will be somewhat compressed leading to a chance for some fog each night as well. The coastal clouds will also keep natural altocumulus in place near the coast and bays. Interior locations on the other hand will be hot with temperatures above normal and in the mid 80s to lower 100s. There will be some minor relief at night in the lower elevations with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s, but the higher elevations will remain very mild and in the 70s. It is August so heat risk risk is moderate given the forecast. However, even with moderate heat risk people with outdoor activities should still be mindful and take precautions. 

MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WEATHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THAT MEANS NIGHT
AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS OVERHEAD THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
EACH NIGHT AS WELL. THE COASTAL CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP NATURAL AC
IN PLACE NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON THE OTHER
HAND WILL BE HOT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 100S. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR RELIEF AT NIGHT IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, BUT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD AND IN THE 70S. IT IS
AUGUST SO HEAT RISK RISK IS MODERATE GIVEN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
EVEN WITH MODERATE HEAT RISK PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
STILL BE MINDFUL AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS. [DISC]

Late this weekend and early next week high pressure will ease as an upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. The weakening high pressure will result in more widespread cooling and closer to seasonal averages. 

LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EASE AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACNW. THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD COOLING AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. [DISC]

Looking farther down the road - temperatures rebound the other direction late next week per CPC [Climate Prediction Center] outlook with above normal temperatures returning. 

LOOKING FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD - TEMPERATURES REBOUND THE OTHER
DIRECTION LATE NEXT WEEK PER CPC OUTLOOK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 04:31pm PDT Thursday… for the 00Z [5pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Skies remain widespread VFR [Visual Flight Rules], but a thick bank of stratus sits just out over the ocean, already slowly moving into Monterey Bay terminals. Stratus will slowly advect inland for IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions overnight for area terminals. Due to a marine layer less than 1,000 feet deep, the strongest confidence remains for terminals closest to the ocean and bay shoreline. Monterey terminals will likely reach LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] conditions with patchy fog possible. Clearing is expected on Friday by 17Z [10am PDT]

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:31 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOR THE 00Z TAFS. SKIES
REMAIN WIDESPREAD VFR, BUT A THICK BANK OF STRATUS SITS JUST OUT
OVER THE OCEAN, ALREADY SLOWLY MOVING INTO MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS.
STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT INLAND FOR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR
AREA TERMINALS. DUE TO A MARINE LAYER LESS THAN 1,000 FEET DEEP,
THE STRONGEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE
OCEAN AND BAY SHORELINE. MONTEREY TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REACH LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY BY 17Z. [AVIA]

Winds are breezier Thursday afternoon than models originally anticipated. Gusts are being reported at KSFO [San Francisco CA] around 30 knots [35 mph]. Winds will stay breezy through the night, but slowly diminish early Friday morning. Winds will stay onshore and increase again Friday afternoon. 

WINDS ARE BREEZIER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAN MODELS ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. GUSTS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KSFO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY ONSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… main impacts in the short term is onshore wind gusts. Models leading up to this afternoon were suggesting winds topping out around 25 knots [29 mph], if that. However, there as already been one observation at 33 knots [38 mph]. Winds will continue to hover around 30 knots [35 mph] through 03Z [8pm PDT], then slowly subside into the night. Conditions are VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Low stratus will once again make its way to the East Bay which can result to few/scattered at KSFO [San Francisco CA], but confidence is not strong enough to put a ceiling at the terminal at this time. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] is forecast on Friday with a return of onshore winds with stronger wind gusts after 22Z [3pm PDT]

VICINITY OF KSFO...MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ONSHORE WIND
GUSTS. MODELS LEADING UP TO THIS AFTERNOON WERE SUGGESTING WINDS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS, IF THAT. HOWEVER, THERE AS ALREADY
BEEN ONE OBSERVATION AT 33 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER
AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH 03Z, THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE VFR. LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE ITS WAY TO
THE EAST BAY WHICH CAN RESULT TO FEW/SCT AT KSFO, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT A CEILING AT THE TERMINAL AT THIS
TIME. VFR IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS
WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS AFTER 22Z. [AVI2]

KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay… currently VFR [Visual Flight Rules], but the stratus clouds are butting up right against the coastline, itching to move into terminals. Projecting IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings with increasing confidence that it happens before 03Z [8pm PDT]. Once its there, will not leave through the night, only lowering to LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] early Friday morning. Reduced visibility and patchy fog is possible. Clearing is projected around 17Z [10am PDT], returning to VFR [Visual Flight Rules] skies with breezy onshore winds. 

MONTEREY BAY...CURRENTLY VFR, BUT THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE BUTTING
UP RIGHT AGAINST THE COASTLINE, ITCHING TO MOVE INTO TERMINALS.
PROJECTING IFR CIGS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT IT HAPPENS
BEFORE 03Z. ONCE ITS THERE, WILL NOT LEAVE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
ONLY LOWERING TO LIFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. REDUCED VIS AND PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE. CLEARING IS PROJECTED AROUND 17Z, RETURNING TO
VFR SKIES WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 08:47pm PDT Thursday… increasing northwest winds through through Friday, particularly over the northern outer waters. This will create steep wind waves and hazardous seas for smaller vessels into the night and through Saturday. A moderate period southerly swell prevails through the waters through the forecast period. 

.MARINE...AS OF 08:47 PM PDT THURSDAY...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. THIS WILL CREATE STEEP WIND WAVES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
SMALLER VESSELS INTO THE NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODERATE
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL PREVAILS THROUGH THE  WATERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM [WARN]

Public Forecast: MM/SPM; Aviation: DK; Marine: DK 

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/SPM
AVIATION: DK
MARINE: DK [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay Airport

18 Aug 09:15pm PDT

Tonight Cloudy, with a low around 55°. NW wind 5 to 7 mph.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 64°. West wind 7 to 9 mph.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54°. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 65°. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55°. South wind 7 to 11 mph.
Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 64°.
Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57°.
Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 65°.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°.
Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64°.
Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55°.
Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64°.
Wednesday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55°.
Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 66°.
Tonight
Cloudy, with a low around 55. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 64. West wind 7 to 9 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. South wind 7 to 11 mph.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 64.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 65.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Wednesday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 66.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: