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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 200327 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 200327
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 8:27pm PDT Fri Apr 19 2024 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
827 PM PDT FRI APR 19 2024 [HEAD]

New update.  

...NEW UPDATE... [DISC]

Synopsis. Issued at 12:06pm PDT Friday April 19 2024 

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM PDT FRI APR 19 2024 [DISC]

A bit cooler across the board today with cloud cover in addition to a deeper marine influence. Continued cloudiness to start the weekend and a dry stretch going into next week. Potential drizzle/light rain chances mid-to-late next week. 

A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION
TO A DEEPER MARINE INFLUENCE. CONTINUED CLOUDINESS TO START THE
WEEKEND AND A DRY STRETCH GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN CHANCES MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Update. Issued at 8:24pm PDT Friday April 19 2024 

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM PDT FRI APR 19 2024 [DISC]

It's a relatively quiet evening across the area with low stratus already onshore across portions of the North Bay and along the Big Sur coast. Given the relatively deep/moist marine layer expect stratus to expand to encompass much of the region late tonight into Saturday morning before clouds retreat to the coast by afternoon. Some orographically enhanced drizzle is possible tonight along the coast as well. This is all represented in the going forecast which is in good shape. Therefore no update is needed for this evening. 

IT`S A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW STRATUS
ALREADY ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG THE BIG
SUR COAST. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DEEP/MOIST MARINE LAYER EXPECT
STRATUS TO EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS RETREAT TO THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON. SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS WELL. THIS IS ALL REPRESENTED IN THE
GOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THEREFORE NO UPDATE IS
NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING. [DISC]

Short term. (this evening through Saturday) issued at 12:06pm PDT Friday April 19 2024 

.SHORT TERM...
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM PDT FRI APR 19 2024 [DISC]

Well defined marine layer up to about 2,000 feet remains in place this afternoon per Fort Ord profiler [instrument designed to measure horizontal winds directly above its location, and thus measure the vertical wind profile. Profilers operate on the same principles as Doppler radar.]. Expecting this to remain in place through into Saturday as the responsible upper low moves through and the onshore flow increases through tomorrow. Though the deep marine layer remains locked in through Saturday, the associated cloud cover will mix out during the afternoon, much like today, and give way to a rather pleasant afternoon. Locations right along the coast may see more persistent cloud cover lasting later in the day, however. Otherwise, expect northwest winds to increase Saturday afternoon, becoming breezy up to 25–35 mph along the coast and nearby coastal hills. 

WELL DEFINED MARINE LAYER UP TO ABOUT 2,000 FEET REMAINS IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON PER FORT ORD PROFILER. EXPECTING THIS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH INTO SATURDAY AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH TOMORROW. THOUGH
THE DEEP MARINE LAYER REMAINS LOCKED IN THROUGH SATURDAY, THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, MUCH
LIKE TODAY, AND GIVE WAY TO A RATHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST MAY SEE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LASTING
LATER IN THE DAY, HOWEVER. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING BREEZY UP TO 25-35 MPH ALONG
THE COAST AND NEARBY COASTAL HILLS. [DISC]

Long term. (Saturday night through next Thursday) issued at 12:06pm PDT Friday April 19 2024 

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM PDT FRI APR 19 2024 [DISC]

To end the weekend and start next week, ridging takes over the pattern once again with afternoon highs increasing by a couple of degrees for Sunday and Monday. Tuesday brings the next big change in the weather as the well-advertised upper low moves into the region. The most notable changes that will be noticed Tuesday are cooler temps and increased cloud cover. Really not much change to the forecast beyond that through the rest of the week. Certainty regarding rainfall remains about the same with still only about 25 out of 100 members advertise anything measurable. Again, the most likely scenario as of now will be drizzle in the hills and coastal areas with perhaps some pockets of sprinkles here and there. 

TO END THE WEEKEND AND START NEXT WEEK, RIDGING TAKES OVER THE
PATTERN ONCE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INCREASING BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT BIG CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGES THAT WILL BE NOTICED TUESDAY ARE
COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. CERTAINTY
REGARDING RAINFALL REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME WITH STILL ONLY ABOUT
25 OUT OF 100 MEMBERS ADVERTISE ANYTHING MEASURABLE. AGAIN, THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AS OF NOW WILL BE DRIZZLE IN THE HILLS AND
COASTAL AREAS WITH PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF SPRINKLES HERE AND
THERE. [DISC]

Aviation. (00Z [5pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 4:21pm PDT Friday April 19 2024 

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 421 PM PDT FRI APR 19 2024 [AVIA]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with moderate onshore winds. Stratus is expected to make a return tonight lowering flight categories to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] late tonight into Saturday morning for most terminals, except KSFO [San Francisco CA], KSJC [San Jose CA], and KLVK [Livermore CA] where models show VFR [Visual Flight Rules] expected to prevail through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Low to moderate confidence on ceiling heights and timing for KSTS [Santa Rosa CA] and KOAK [Oakland CA], as some models show a brief hour or two of low ceilings near 13–15Z [6–8am PDT]. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] will return for all terminals near 17Z [10am PDT]. Winds will diminish overnight but will become moderate to breezy again Saturday afternoon, especially near the coastal gaps and passes. 

VFR WITH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TONIGHT LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS, EXCEPT KSFO, KSJC, AND
KLVK WHERE MODELS SHOW VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING FOR
KSTS AND KOAK, AS SOME MODELS SHOW A BRIEF HOUR OR TWO OF LOW CIGS
NEAR 13-15Z. VFR WILL RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS NEAR 17Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTAL GAPS AND PASSES. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period, but models show MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] stratus filling in near the terminal overnight. Will continue to monitor if any updates to the TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts] are needed. Breezy NW/W winds will start to diminish late tonight but will rebuild to breezy/strong by Saturday afternoon. 

VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT MODELS SHOW MVFR
STRATUS FILLING IN NEAR THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF ANY UPDATES TO THE TAFS ARE NEEDED. BREEZY NW/W WINDS
WILL START TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL REBUILD TO
BREEZY/STRONG BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] approach bridge… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO APPROACH BRIDGE...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with moderate onshore winds that are expected to diminish overnight. Stratus will return late tonight and lower to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules], but models suggest ceilings will get down to IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]. With the models disagreement, low to moderate confidence that IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] will occur overnight into early Saturday morning. Will continue to monitor. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND
LOWER TO MVFR, BUT MODELS SUGGEST CEILINGS WILL GET DOWN TO IFR.
WITH THE MODELS DISAGREEMENT, LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. [AVI2]

Marine. (tonight through next Wednesday) issued at 4:21pm PDT Friday April 19 2024 

.MARINE...
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM PDT FRI APR 19 2024 [AVIA]

Light to moderate breezes continue through the remainder of Friday before northwesterly winds increase to become strong and gusty Saturday evening. Swell builds into Sunday out of the northwest as gusty conditions continue but looks to diminish towards the middle part of the next week. Light southerly swell continues to move through the waters this weekend and through the next work week. 

LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY
BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY
SATURDAY EVENING. SWELL BUILDS INTO SUNDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT LOOKS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. [AVI2]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • California: none.
  • Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory from 3pm Saturday to 3am PDT Sunday for Monterey Bay-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS
10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES
10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM. [WARN]
  • Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 9pm PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]
  • Update: SPM short term…behringer long term…behringer aviation…so marine…so 
UPDATE...SPM
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO [WRN2]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay Airport

19 Apr 08:15pm PDT

Tonight Patchy drizzle. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°. West wind 3 to 6 mph.
Saturday Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 60°. WNW wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°. NW wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 61°. NW wind 8 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 48°. WNW wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light west in the evening.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°.
Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°.
Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 59°.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°.
Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 57°.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Tonight
Patchy drizzle. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. West wind 3 to 6 mph.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 60. West northwest wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Northwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 61. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light west in the evening.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 60.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 59.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 57.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 58.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: