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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 212355 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 212355
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 4:55pm PDT Sun Apr 21 2019 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
455 PM PDT SUN APR 21 2019 [HEAD]

Synopsis. High pressure building over the region will result in a warming and drying trend through midweek. Temperatures will warm well above seasonal averages by Tuesday with weak offshore flow. Temperatures will then moderate and cool slightly late in the week as the ridge of high pressure weakens. 

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY TUESDAY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE AND COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 02:19pm PDT Sunday… locally breezy conditions persist over the region this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s near the coast and middle 60s to lower 70s inland. While sky conditions are mainly clear for much of the region, low clouds are once again developing from the Monterey Peninsula southward along the coast to around Point Sur [Big Sur CA]. Looking for low clouds to return to some coastal areas tonight, especially around the Monterey Bay, while high pressure building aloft limits inland intrusion. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:19 PM PDT SUNDAY...LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST AND
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND. WHILE SKY CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY
CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
FROM THE MONTEREY PENINSULA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND
POINT SUR. LOOKING FOR LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO SOME COASTAL AREAS
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ALOFT LIMITS INLAND INTRUSION. [DISC]

A more robust warming trend will begin on Monday and continue through the first half of the week as the aforementioned high pressure strengthens over the region. Look for more widespread 70s and 80s for the interior with upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast on Monday. Additional warming is likely for Tuesday when some interior locations could reach into the lower 90s. Weak offshore flow will also push warmer conditions all the way to the coast by Tuesday where we could see middle 70s to even lower 80s for locations such as Santa Cruz. While these warm conditions are likely to persist over inland areas on Wednesday, the forecast models do cool conditions slightly near the coast. Will have to monitor for the return of the marine layer and its influences across coastal areas by midweek. 

A MORE ROBUST WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD 70S
AND 80S FOR THE INTERIOR WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST
ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY WHEN SOME
INTERIOR LOCATIONS COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S. WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL ALSO PUSH WARMER CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY
TUESDAY WHERE WE COULD SEE MIDDLE 70S TO EVEN LOWER 80S FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SANTA CRUZ. WHILE THESE WARM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVER INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST MODELS DO
COOL CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THE RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER AND ITS INFLUENCES ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS BY MIDWEEK. [DISC]

Temperatures trend slightly cooler for the latter half of the week as the ridge flattens and shifts inland in advance of an approaching mid/upper level trough. The operational forecast models have started to show an upper level low undercutting the ridge and brining some light precipitation to Southern California by the upcoming weekend. Ensemble members are also hinting at very light QPF [Quantitative Precipitation Forecast] (a few hundredths of an inch or so) over the Central Coast and Southern California by day 7 and 8 of the forecast period. With very low confidence at this time, will keep dry conditions in the official forecast but will continue to monitor trends in the coming days. Regardless, not expecting widespread rainfall or major impacts to the region. 

TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS INLAND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS HAVE STARTED
TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND BRINING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO HINTING AT VERY LIGHT QPF (A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR SO) OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY DAY 7 AND 8 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS.
REGARDLESS, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR MAJOR IMPACTS TO
THE REGION. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 04:55pm PDT Sunday… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] will give way to some IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]/MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions overnight at most terminals, with exception of Livermore and SJC [San Jose CA]. Though some clouds could creep into SJC [San Jose CA]. Expecting clouds to dissipate early Monday morning as high pressure builds from the west and causes some offshore flow to develop. Clouds may be a bit more persistent in the Monterey region. Otherwise, look for a repeat of today for tomorrow. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:55 PM PDT SUNDAY...VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH EXCEPTION
OF LVK AND SJC. THOUGH SOME CLOUDS COULD CREEP INTO SJC. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST AND CAUSES SOME OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. CLOUDS MAY
BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT IN THE MONTEREY REGION. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR A REPEAT OF TODAY FOR TOMORROW. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Breezy winds through the San Bruno Gap this afternoon. Scattered clouds 1000–1500 ft possible late overnight into Monday morning. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO GAP
THIS AFTERNOON. SCT CLOUDS 1000-1500 FT POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… breezy winds from the north, others similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTH, OTHERS SIMILAR
TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the afternoon. Marine layer return expected later into the evening and overnight. Some models bringing a little bit of drizzle to the coast with the marine layer early Monday morning (prior and up to sunrise). Breezy onshore winds this afternoon. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER
RETURN EXPECTED LATER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS
BRINGING A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE TO THE COAST WITH THE MARINE
LAYER EARLY MONDAY MORNING (PRIOR AND UP TO SUNRISE). BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 11:14am PDT Sunday… gusty northwest winds across the waters today. Occasional gale force gusts are possible through tonight. These gusty winds will generate steep fresh swell that is hazardous for small craft vessels. Northwest winds dissipate somewhat into midweek. Northwest seas. 

.MARINE...AS OF 11:14 AM PDT SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS TODAY. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELL THAT IS
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT VESSELS. NORTHWEST WINDS DISSIPATE
SOMEWHAT INTO MIDWEEK. NORTHWEST SEAS. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 3 AM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Rgass; Aviation: BFG; Marine: DRP 

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: BFG
MARINE: DRP [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay Airport

21 Apr 4:55pm PDT

Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°. NNW wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 68°. NNW wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51°. NNW wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 72°. Light north wind becoming NNW 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52°. NNW wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light WNW.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 69°.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51°.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 70°.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 64°.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65°.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 48°.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. North northwest wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 68. North northwest wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. North northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Light north wind becoming north northwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. North northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light west northwest.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 69.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 70.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 64.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: