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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 162345 AFDMTR ∨

FXUS66 KMTR 162345
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 4:45pm PDT Tue Oct 16 2018 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
445 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2018 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Generally weak offshore flow is forecast to persist through at least midweek with temperatures near or above seasonal averages. Onshore winds increase slightly late in the week which should help moisten conditions while daytime temperatures remain mild. A storm system is then forecast to push inland to our north early next week with cooling temperatures and potential for light rain over Northern California. ∨

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH
SHOULD HELP MOISTEN CONDITIONS WHILE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD. A STORM SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND TO OUR NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 01:52pm PDT Tuesday… the upper level pattern over the region will change little through midweek as mid/upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific extends inland over the Pacific Northwest and an upper level low remains over the desert southwest. This will keep light offshore winds across the interior and result in seasonably warm conditions each afternoon. Mostly clear conditions are likely overnight with seasonably cool temperatures in the lower elevations while mild temperatures persist in the hills/mountains with continued offshore winds. ∨

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:52 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDS
INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND RESULT IN SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE MILD
TEMPERATURES PERSIST IN THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED
OFFSHORE WINDS. [DISC]

By late in the week, weak onshore flow will potentially develop as the upper level low slowly moves to the northeast and high pressure builds further inland across the West Coast. This may allow for a shallow marine layer to develop with the development of coastal stratus during the late night and early morning hours. However, confidence is low at this time and widespread cloud cover is not currently expected through late week. This too may cool conditions a bit near the coast as offshore flow remains confined to the inland areas. This will likely lead to pleasant fall weather conditions over the region through the upcoming weekend. ∨

BY LATE IN THE WEEK, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF COASTAL STRATUS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS TOO MAY COOL
CONDITIONS A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS CONFINED
TO THE INLAND AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PLEASANT FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. [DISC]

The medium range models continue to suggest a possible pattern shift early next week as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. This would likely at least result in a cooling trend region-wide with rain chances increasing over Northern California late Monday into Tuesday. Unsettled weather conditions look to linger into late next week as well with precipitation dropping as far south as the North Bay. However, confidence remains low on widespread rainfall actually developing over our region late in the forecast period. Will need to monitor in the coming days. ∨

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN
SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY AT LEAST RESULT IN A COOLING
TREND REGION-WIDE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO LINGER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH PRECIPITATION
DROPPING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH BAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER OUR
REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN THE
COMING DAYS. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 4:45pm PDT Tuesday… satellite image shows stratus over the waters from Point Reyes [San Francisco CA] to the Santa Cruz coast. Stratus has been spreading south into northern Monterey Bay and this could bring ceilings to the Monterey Bay Area terminals this evening. These clouds are expected to remain near the coast as the marine layer is shallow and there is weak offshore flow. This is consistent with model guidance which also keeps low clouds out. ∨

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
STRATUS OVER THE WATERS FROM POINT REYES TO THE SANTA CRUZ COAST.
STRATUS HAS BEEN SPREADING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MRY BAY AND THIS
COULD BRING CIGS TO THE MRY BAY AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AS THE MARINE
LAYER IS SHALLOW AND THERE IS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO KEEPS LOW CLOUDS OUT. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Models keep stratus confined along the coast but it will have to be watched. Northwest winds to 15 kt [17 mph] decreasing after 04Z [9pm PDT]. ∨

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MODELS KEEP STRATUS CONFINED ALONG THE
COAST BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 15 KT
DECREASING AFTER 04Z. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings after 05Z [10pm PDT] possibly sooner. ∨

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AFTER 05Z POSSIBLY SOONER. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 04:33pm PDT Tuesday… high pressure over the eastern Pacific coupled with a thermal trough along the coast will maintain generally light to locally moderate northwesterly winds across the coastal waters through much of the forecast period. Mixed swell will continue with a long period southerly swell through mid week and a more moderate period northwest swell. A longer period northwest swell will arrive during the second half of the week. ∨

.MARINE...AS OF 04:33 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COUPLED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY  MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH  MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MIXED SWELL WILL CONTINUE WITH A  LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
THROUGH MID WEEK AND A MORE MODERATE  PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. A
LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL  ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Tonight: none. ∨

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE. [WARN]

Public Forecast: Rgass; Aviation: W PI; Marine: CW/DP; Fire Weather: MM ∨

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: CW/DP
FIRE WEATHER: MM [CRED]

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 162345 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 162345 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 4:45pm PDT Tue Oct 16 2018 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 445 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2018 [HEAD] Synopsis. Generally weak offshore flow is forecast to persist through at least midweek with temperatures near or above seasonal averages. Onshore winds increase slightly late in the week which should help moisten conditions while daytime temperatures remain mild. A storm system is then forecast to push inland to our north early next week with cooling temperatures and potential for light rain over Northern California. ∨ .SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP MOISTEN CONDITIONS WHILE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD. A STORM SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. [DISC] Discussion. As of 01:52pm PDT Tuesday… the upper level pattern over the region will change little through midweek as mid/upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific extends inland over the Pacific Northwest and an upper level low remains over the desert southwest. This will keep light offshore winds across the interior and result in seasonably warm conditions each afternoon. Mostly clear conditions are likely overnight with seasonably cool temperatures in the lower elevations while mild temperatures persist in the hills/mountains with continued offshore winds. ∨ .DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:52 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND RESULT IN SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST IN THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE WINDS. [DISC] By late in the week, weak onshore flow will potentially develop as the upper level low slowly moves to the northeast and high pressure builds further inland across the West Coast. This may allow for a shallow marine layer to develop with the development of coastal stratus during the late night and early morning hours. However, confidence is low at this time and widespread cloud cover is not currently expected through late week. This too may cool conditions a bit near the coast as offshore flow remains confined to the inland areas. This will likely lead to pleasant fall weather conditions over the region through the upcoming weekend. ∨ BY LATE IN THE WEEK, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL STRATUS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS TOO MAY COOL CONDITIONS A BIT NEAR THE COAST AS OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS CONFINED TO THE INLAND AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. [DISC] The medium range models continue to suggest a possible pattern shift early next week as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. This would likely at least result in a cooling trend region-wide with rain chances increasing over Northern California late Monday into Tuesday. Unsettled weather conditions look to linger into late next week as well with precipitation dropping as far south as the North Bay. However, confidence remains low on widespread rainfall actually developing over our region late in the forecast period. Will need to monitor in the coming days. ∨ THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY AT LEAST RESULT IN A COOLING TREND REGION-WIDE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO LINGER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH PRECIPITATION DROPPING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH BAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS. [DISC] Aviation. As of 4:45pm PDT Tuesday… satellite image shows stratus over the waters from Point Reyes [San Francisco CA] to the Santa Cruz coast. Stratus has been spreading south into northern Monterey Bay and this could bring ceilings to the Monterey Bay Area terminals this evening. These clouds are expected to remain near the coast as the marine layer is shallow and there is weak offshore flow. This is consistent with model guidance which also keeps low clouds out. ∨ .AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS OVER THE WATERS FROM POINT REYES TO THE SANTA CRUZ COAST. STRATUS HAS BEEN SPREADING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MRY BAY AND THIS COULD BRING CIGS TO THE MRY BAY AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER IS SHALLOW AND THERE IS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO KEEPS LOW CLOUDS OUT. [AVIA] Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Models keep stratus confined along the coast but it will have to be watched. Northwest winds to 15 kt [17 mph] decreasing after 04Z [9pm PDT]. ∨ VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MODELS KEEP STRATUS CONFINED ALONG THE COAST BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 15 KT DECREASING AFTER 04Z. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings after 05Z [10pm PDT] possibly sooner. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AFTER 05Z POSSIBLY SOONER. [AVI2] Marine. As of 04:33pm PDT Tuesday… high pressure over the eastern Pacific coupled with a thermal trough along the coast will maintain generally light to locally moderate northwesterly winds across the coastal waters through much of the forecast period. Mixed swell will continue with a long period southerly swell through mid week and a more moderate period northwest swell. A longer period northwest swell will arrive during the second half of the week. ∨ .MARINE...AS OF 04:33 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC COUPLED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MIXED SWELL WILL CONTINUE WITH A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THROUGH MID WEEK AND A MORE MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. A LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. [AVIA] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories Tonight: none. ∨ .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...NONE. [WARN] Public Forecast: Rgass; Aviation: W PI; Marine: CW/DP; Fire Weather: MM ∨ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS AVIATION: W PI MARINE: CW/DP FIRE WEATHER: MM [CRED] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]	Point Forecast Half Moon Bay Airport Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 47°. NW wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°. Calm wind becoming WNW 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49°. NNW wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm in the evening. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°. Light NW wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50°. NNW wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light north in the evening. Friday Sunny, with a high near 65°. Friday Night Clear, with a low around 51°. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 65°. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51°. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52°. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Calm wind becoming west northwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. North northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm in the evening. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Light northwest wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50. North northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light north in the evening. Friday Sunny, with a high near 65. Friday Night Clear, with a low around 51. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 65. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
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