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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 111906 AFDMTR ∨

FXUS66 KMTR 111906
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 11:06am PST Tue Nov 11 2025 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1106 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025 [HEAD]

New aviation, marine. ∨

...NEW AVIATION, MARINE... [DISC]

Key Messages… updated at 3:29am PST Tuesday November 11 2025 ∨

.KEY MESSAGES...
UPDATED AT 329 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025 [DISC]

- warm and dry conditions through today ∨

 - WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY [DISC]

- unsettled weather pattern returns Wednesday ∨

 - UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS WEDNESDAY [DISC]

- moderate rain, strong southerly winds, and a slight chance for thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday ∨

 - MODERATE RAIN, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY [DISC]

Short term. Issued at 3:29am PST Tuesday November 11 2025 (today and tonight) ∨

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 329 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT) [DISC]

The forecast is on track this morning, as high level clouds stream in from a storm system churning over the Pacific. This has kept temperatures varied, but all be it, warmer than normal. Depending on where you're at, temperatures vary from the upper 40s to upper 50s for interior valleys and folks along the coast and the low 60s to low 70s for those on the mountains. This will help lead to another warm and dry day; however, cloud cover and the upper level ridge over Southern California flattening, should limit high temperature growth compared to what we've seen the last few days. Highs for Tuesday will range from the mid 70s to low 80 for interior valleys and higher terrain, while coastal communities peak in the mid 60s to low 70s. ∨

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN
FROM A STORM SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES VARIED, BUT ALL BE IT, WARMER THAN NORMAL. DEPENDING ON
WHERE YOU`RE AT, TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AND FOLKS ALONG THE COAST AND THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S FOR THOSE ON THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL HELP LEAD TO ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY; HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FLATTENING, SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE
GROWTH COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80 FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN, WHILE COASTAL COMMUNITIES PEAK IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. [DISC]

The pattern continues to shift to zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, setting us up for a midweek pattern change and unsettled weather. ∨

THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SETTING US UP FOR A MIDWEEK PATTERN CHANGE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER. [DISC]

Long term. Issued at 3:29am PST Tuesday November 11 2025 (Wednesday through Monday) ∨

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 329 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) [DISC]

A strong upper low will advanced towards the West Coast Wednesday into Thursday with the trough digging towards the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. This will bring unsettled weather to the Bay Area and portions of the Central Coast, primarily increasing southerly winds and rain. There are some models that hint a slight chance for thunderstorms offshore and perhaps over the North Bay counties late Wednesday evening and into the early overnight hours. Chances for thunder spread south early Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours. We will have decent shear and moisture, but CAPE [Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. Related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.] is low or low. This should keep any thunderstorm development well below severe criteria with the main concerns being gusty winds, heavy rain, and flashes of lightning. Chances for thunder generally sit at 20% or less with this forecast package update. When it comes to rainfall totals, the forecast generally remains on track. From 4am Wednesday through 4am Friday, the regions coastal ranges can expect the see 2–3" of rainfall, 1–2" in the higher terrain elsewhere in the region and the North Bay, 1–1.25" in the city of San Francisco, and generally less than 1" in the interior valleys and around the Monterey Bay region. There is the potential for less rainfall within the typically rain shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall). ∨

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCED TOWARDS THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING TOWARDS THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST, PRIMARILY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RAIN. THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT HINT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND PERHAPS OVER THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCES FOR
THUNDER SPREAD SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE WILL HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MOISTURE, BUT CAPE IS LOW
OR LOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN,
AND FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. CHANCES FOR THUNDER GENERALLY SIT AT 20%
OR LESS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE. WHEN IT COMES TO RAINFALL
TOTALS, THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK. FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY, THE REGIONS COASTAL RANGES CAN EXPECT THE SEE 2-
3" OF RAINFALL, 1-2" IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION
AND THE NORTH BAY, 1-1.25" IN THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO, AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS RAINFALL WITHIN
THE TYPICALLY RAIN SHADOWED VALLEYS (PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
RAINFALL). [DISC]

Moving on to the other hazard, wind. Models and ensemble guidance continue to depict southerly winds ramping up late Wednesday night through Thursday morning before tapering. Look for wind gusts to range from 35–45 mph for interior valley locations, with stronger gusts up to 45–55 mph along the coast and at the higher elevations. Stronger gusts, potentially in excess of 60 mph, are possible through favored gaps and passes. ∨

MOVING ON TO THE OTHER HAZARD, WIND. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMPING UP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING. LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS TO
RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 MPH FOR INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH STRONGER
GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 55 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONGER GUSTS, POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH, ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES. [DISC]

Once the main front moves through, we'll be left with post-frontal showers Thursday into Friday. A drying trend is expected on Saturday, though this should be brief as ensembles favor a trough pattern to return after that. ∨

ONCE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE`LL BE LEFT WITH POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A TROUGH
PATTERN TO RETURN AFTER THAT. [DISC]

Aviation. (18Z [10am PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 11:05am PST Tuesday November 11 2025 ∨

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025 [AVIA]

Widespread VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lingers into the evening with overcast high clouds. Expect light to moderate winds for the afternoon that will reduce for most areas into the evening and into the night. Low ceilings form along the coast in the evening and slowly move inland into the late night. Breezy to gusty south and southeast winds build in the North Bay and along the coast into Wednesday morning with spotty light rain and drizzle. These winds will become widespread later into the day ahead of a strong cold front. Expect moderate to at times heavy rains and stronger winds later into Wednesday night. ∨

WIDESPREAD VFR LINGERS INTO THE EVENING WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL REDUCE
FOR MOST AREAS INTO THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. LOW CIGS FORM
ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE INLAND INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BUILD IN THE NORTH
BAY AND ALONG THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER INTO THE
DAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONGER WINDS LATER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lasts into early Wednesday. Winds stay light into the mid afternoon before becoming moderate and northwesterly then southwesterly into the evening. Winds reduce into the night and become light and variable. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings and southerly winds build into Wednesday morning with stronger south winds building into that afternoon along with spotty pre-frontal shower activity. ∨

VICINITY OF SFO...VFR LASTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS STAY LIGHT
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE AND NORTHWESTERLY
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MVFR CIGS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BUILD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS BUILDING INTO THAT
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lasts into the evening. Moderate westerly winds build into the afternoon with overcast high clouds. Winds reduce into the evening as IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings build around the Bay and fill the terminals into the night. Low cloud cover looks to erode into the mid morning on Wednesday. ∨

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR LASTS INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS BUILD INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS REDUCE INTO THE EVENING AS IFR CIGS BUILD AROUND THE BAY AND
FILL THE TERMINALS INTO THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ERODE
INTO THE MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. [AVI2]

Marine. (today through Sunday) issued at 11:05am PST Tuesday November 11 2025 ∨

.MARINE...
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025 [AVIA]

Light to moderate winds last into Wednesday before a strong cold front approaches the area. Winds before and along the front will produce gales, including possibly storm force gusts over the northern and inner coastal waters, while passing eastward across the coastal waters and bays late Wednesday and early Thursday. Heavy rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. Strong winds combined with a building NW swell will generate hazardous seas across the waters. Winds will decrease Friday, but the larger swell continues to build with seas up to 15 feet before diminishing through the weekend. ∨

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS LAST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS BEFORE AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE GALES, INCLUDING POSSIBLY STORM FORCE GUSTS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND INNER COASTAL WATERS, WHILE PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.
HEAVY RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH A BUILDING NW SWELL WILL
GENERATE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY, BUT THE LARGER SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH SEAS UP TO 15
FEET BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. [AVI2]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

California: none.
Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 3pm PST Wednesday for Monterey Bay-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. ∨

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60
NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE. [WARN]

Gale Warning from 3pm Wednesday to 3am PST Thursday for Monterey Bay-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. ∨

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR MRY
BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-
60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE. [WRN2]

Gale Warning from 9am Wednesday to 3am PST Thursday for Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]. ∨

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM. [WRN2]

Short term…KR long term…KR aviation…murdock marine…murdock ∨

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK [WRN2]

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Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 111906 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 111906 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco California 11:06am PST Tue Nov 11 2025 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 1106 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025 [HEAD] New aviation, marine. ∨ ...NEW AVIATION, MARINE... [DISC] Key Messages… updated at 3:29am PST Tuesday November 11 2025 ∨ .KEY MESSAGES... UPDATED AT 329 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025 [DISC] - warm and dry conditions through today ∨ - WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY [DISC] - unsettled weather pattern returns Wednesday ∨ - UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS WEDNESDAY [DISC] - moderate rain, strong southerly winds, and a slight chance for thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday ∨ - MODERATE RAIN, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY [DISC] Short term. Issued at 3:29am PST Tuesday November 11 2025 (today and tonight) ∨ .SHORT TERM... ISSUED AT 329 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025 (TODAY AND TONIGHT) [DISC] The forecast is on track this morning, as high level clouds stream in from a storm system churning over the Pacific. This has kept temperatures varied, but all be it, warmer than normal. Depending on where you're at, temperatures vary from the upper 40s to upper 50s for interior valleys and folks along the coast and the low 60s to low 70s for those on the mountains. This will help lead to another warm and dry day; however, cloud cover and the upper level ridge over Southern California flattening, should limit high temperature growth compared to what we've seen the last few days. Highs for Tuesday will range from the mid 70s to low 80 for interior valleys and higher terrain, while coastal communities peak in the mid 60s to low 70s. ∨ THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM A STORM SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES VARIED, BUT ALL BE IT, WARMER THAN NORMAL. DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU`RE AT, TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AND FOLKS ALONG THE COAST AND THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THOSE ON THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL HELP LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY; HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FLATTENING, SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE GROWTH COMPARED TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80 FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN, WHILE COASTAL COMMUNITIES PEAK IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. [DISC] The pattern continues to shift to zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, setting us up for a midweek pattern change and unsettled weather. ∨ THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, SETTING US UP FOR A MIDWEEK PATTERN CHANGE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. [DISC] Long term. Issued at 3:29am PST Tuesday November 11 2025 (Wednesday through Monday) ∨ .LONG TERM... ISSUED AT 329 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025 (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) [DISC] A strong upper low will advanced towards the West Coast Wednesday into Thursday with the trough digging towards the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. This will bring unsettled weather to the Bay Area and portions of the Central Coast, primarily increasing southerly winds and rain. There are some models that hint a slight chance for thunderstorms offshore and perhaps over the North Bay counties late Wednesday evening and into the early overnight hours. Chances for thunder spread south early Thursday morning and into the afternoon hours. We will have decent shear and moisture, but CAPE [Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. Related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.] is low or low. This should keep any thunderstorm development well below severe criteria with the main concerns being gusty winds, heavy rain, and flashes of lightning. Chances for thunder generally sit at 20% or less with this forecast package update. When it comes to rainfall totals, the forecast generally remains on track. From 4am Wednesday through 4am Friday, the regions coastal ranges can expect the see 2–3" of rainfall, 1–2" in the higher terrain elsewhere in the region and the North Bay, 1–1.25" in the city of San Francisco, and generally less than 1" in the interior valleys and around the Monterey Bay region. There is the potential for less rainfall within the typically rain shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall). ∨ A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCED TOWARDS THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING TOWARDS THE PACNW AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST, PRIMARILY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT HINT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND PERHAPS OVER THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCES FOR THUNDER SPREAD SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MOISTURE, BUT CAPE IS LOW OR LOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FLASHES OF LIGHTNING. CHANCES FOR THUNDER GENERALLY SIT AT 20% OR LESS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE. WHEN IT COMES TO RAINFALL TOTALS, THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK. FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY, THE REGIONS COASTAL RANGES CAN EXPECT THE SEE 2- 3" OF RAINFALL, 1-2" IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION AND THE NORTH BAY, 1-1.25" IN THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS RAINFALL WITHIN THE TYPICALLY RAIN SHADOWED VALLEYS (PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL). [DISC] Moving on to the other hazard, wind. Models and ensemble guidance continue to depict southerly winds ramping up late Wednesday night through Thursday morning before tapering. Look for wind gusts to range from 35–45 mph for interior valley locations, with stronger gusts up to 45–55 mph along the coast and at the higher elevations. Stronger gusts, potentially in excess of 60 mph, are possible through favored gaps and passes. ∨ MOVING ON TO THE OTHER HAZARD, WIND. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMPING UP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING. LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS TO RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 MPH FOR INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 55 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STRONGER GUSTS, POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH, ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES. [DISC] Once the main front moves through, we'll be left with post-frontal showers Thursday into Friday. A drying trend is expected on Saturday, though this should be brief as ensembles favor a trough pattern to return after that. ∨ ONCE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE`LL BE LEFT WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A TROUGH PATTERN TO RETURN AFTER THAT. [DISC] Aviation. (18Z [10am PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 11:05am PST Tuesday November 11 2025 ∨ .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1105 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025 [AVIA] Widespread VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lingers into the evening with overcast high clouds. Expect light to moderate winds for the afternoon that will reduce for most areas into the evening and into the night. Low ceilings form along the coast in the evening and slowly move inland into the late night. Breezy to gusty south and southeast winds build in the North Bay and along the coast into Wednesday morning with spotty light rain and drizzle. These winds will become widespread later into the day ahead of a strong cold front. Expect moderate to at times heavy rains and stronger winds later into Wednesday night. ∨ WIDESPREAD VFR LINGERS INTO THE EVENING WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL REDUCE FOR MOST AREAS INTO THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. LOW CIGS FORM ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE INLAND INTO THE LATE NIGHT. BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BUILD IN THE NORTH BAY AND ALONG THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER INTO THE DAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINS AND STRONGER WINDS LATER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. [AVI2] Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lasts into early Wednesday. Winds stay light into the mid afternoon before becoming moderate and northwesterly then southwesterly into the evening. Winds reduce into the night and become light and variable. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings and southerly winds build into Wednesday morning with stronger south winds building into that afternoon along with spotty pre-frontal shower activity. ∨ VICINITY OF SFO...VFR LASTS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS STAY LIGHT INTO THE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE AND NORTHWESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MVFR CIGS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BUILD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS BUILDING INTO THAT AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SPOTTY PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lasts into the evening. Moderate westerly winds build into the afternoon with overcast high clouds. Winds reduce into the evening as IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings build around the Bay and fill the terminals into the night. Low cloud cover looks to erode into the mid morning on Wednesday. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR LASTS INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS BUILD INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS REDUCE INTO THE EVENING AS IFR CIGS BUILD AROUND THE BAY AND FILL THE TERMINALS INTO THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ERODE INTO THE MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. [AVI2] Marine. (today through Sunday) issued at 11:05am PST Tuesday November 11 2025 ∨ .MARINE... (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 1105 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2025 [AVIA] Light to moderate winds last into Wednesday before a strong cold front approaches the area. Winds before and along the front will produce gales, including possibly storm force gusts over the northern and inner coastal waters, while passing eastward across the coastal waters and bays late Wednesday and early Thursday. Heavy rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. Strong winds combined with a building NW swell will generate hazardous seas across the waters. Winds will decrease Friday, but the larger swell continues to build with seas up to 15 feet before diminishing through the weekend. ∨ LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS LAST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS BEFORE AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALES, INCLUDING POSSIBLY STORM FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN AND INNER COASTAL WATERS, WHILE PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH A BUILDING NW SWELL WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY, BUT THE LARGER SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. [AVI2] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories California: none. Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 3pm PST Wednesday for Monterey Bay-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. ∨ .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR MRY BAY- PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE. [WARN] Gale Warning from 3pm Wednesday to 3am PST Thursday for Monterey Bay-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. ∨ GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10- 60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE. [WRN2] Gale Warning from 9am Wednesday to 3am PST Thursday for Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]. ∨ GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM. [WRN2] Short term…KR long term…KR aviation…murdock marine…murdock ∨ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...MURDOCK MARINE...MURDOCK [WRN2] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, x, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA X.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]	Point Forecast Half Moon Bay Airport 11 Nov 11:35am PST Veterans Day Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66°. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Tonight A 10% chance of rain after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54°. South wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Wednesday Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64°. South wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Night Rain before 1am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 1am and 4am, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Low around 56°. Breezy, with a SSE wind 21 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday Rain before 10am, then showers likely after 10am. High near 62°. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday Night A 50% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday A 40% chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59°. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. Sunday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60°. Sunday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. Monday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 60°. Veterans Day Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Tonight A 10 percent chance of rain after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Wednesday Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. South wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Night Rain before 1am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 1am and 4am, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Low around 56. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 21 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday Rain before 10am, then showers likely after 10am. High near 62. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday Night A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Sunday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Sunday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Monday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 60.
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