Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 232104 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 232104 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco California 2:04pm PDT Mon Jun 23 2025 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 204 PM PDT MON JUN 23 2025 [HEAD] New synopsis, short term, long term. ∨ ...NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... [DISC] Synopsis. Issued at 2:05pm PDT Monday June 23 2025 ∨ .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 205 PM PDT MON JUN 23 2025 [DISC] A seasonal weather pattern will continue much of this week with temperatures running near normal. Look for warm days followed by cool overnights as coastal low clouds and fog spread locally inland night and morning hours while sunny skies will prevail inland. ∨ A SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. LOOK FOR WARM DAYS FOLLOWED BY COOL OVERNIGHTS AS COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREAD LOCALLY INLAND NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHILE SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL INLAND. [DISC] Short term. (this evening through Tuesday) issued at 2:05pm PDT Monday June 23 2025 ∨ .SHORT TERM... (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM PDT MON JUN 23 2025 [DISC] Coastal stratus has retreated to the coast with the marine layer depth just over 1000 feet. Low clouds continue to cover Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] and a little eddy outside the Golden Gate has kept a sliver of fog/low clouds south of Angel Island while areas west of the avenues remain cloudy out to Ocean Beach. As of 1pm we have temps ranging from the upper 50s at the coast to mid/upper 80s inland. The synoptic pattern features an upper low near Bakersfield that is helping to generate some convection over the southern Sierra with even some cumulus build ups over the higher terrain of San Benito County. Surface gradients remain relatively light with less than 2 mb SFO [San Francisco CA]-SAC [Sacramento CA] and light gradients down the coast keeping afternoon seabreeze winds a little weaker than normal. For tonight expect the low clouds along the coast to slowly spread into the coastal valleys of the Monterey Bay region with not too much of an inland push for the Bay Area. Overnight lows generally in the 50s with similar afternoon highs forecast for Tuesday afternoon. ∨ COASTAL STRATUS HAS RETREATED TO THE COAST WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH JUST OVER 1000 FEET. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER PT REYES AND A LITTLE EDDY OUTSIDE THE GOLDEN GATE HAS KEPT A SLIVER OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF ANGEL ISLAND WHILE AREAS WEST OF THE AVENUES REMAIN CLOUDY OUT TO OCEAN BEACH. AS OF 1 PM WE HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAKERSFIELD THAT IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH EVEN SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO COUNTY. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN 2 MB SFO-SAC AND LIGHT GRADIENTS DOWN THE COAST KEEPING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TO SLOWLY SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS OF THE MONTEREY BAY REGION WITH NOT TOO MUCH OF AN INLAND PUSH FOR THE BAY AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH SIMILAR AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. [DISC] Long term. (Tuesday night through next Sunday) issued at 2:05pm PDT Monday June 23 2025 ∨ .LONG TERM... (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM PDT MON JUN 23 2025 [DISC] A gradual and modest inland warming trend forecast Wednesday and into the weekend. 500 mb heights become more zonal by Wednesday and then show a weak troughing signal by the weekend but the main message is no big ridge. Nonetheless inland temps should warm by Thursday and Friday with inland low to mid 90s becoming more common. However the overall pattern will continue to feature onshore wind flow regime keeping the coast and bays mild. As noted this morning SST [sea surface temperature] are quite cool at around 50–51°. ∨ A GRADUAL AND MODEST INLAND WARMING TREND FORECAST WEDS AND INTO THE WEEKEND. 500 MB HEIGHTS BECOME MORE ZONAL BY WEDS AND THEN SHOW A WEAK TROUGHING SIGNAL BY THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE IS NO BIG RIDGE. NONETHELESS INLAND TEMPS SHOULD WARM BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INLAND LOW TO MID 90S BECOMING MORE COMMON. HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ONSHORE WIND FLOW REGIME KEEPING THE COAST AND BAYS MILD. AS NOTED THIS MORNING SST ARE QUITE COOL AT AROUND 50-51 DEGREES. [DISC] Long range trends for next week currently show a pattern with a trough over the Pacific Northwest that will keep the four-corners high well to our east. So continued near to slightly below normal temps likely heading into July with no monsoon or precipitation intrusions currently portended. ∨ LONG RANGE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY SHOW A PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW THAT WILL KEEP THE FOUR-CORNERS HIGH WELL TO OUR EAST. SO CONTINUED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY HEADING INTO JULY WITH NO MONSOON OR PRECIP INTRUSIONS CURRENTLY PORTENDED. [DISC] Aviation. (18Z [11am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 10:26am PDT Monday June 23 2025 ∨ .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1026 AM PDT MON JUN 23 2025 [AVIA] IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions prevail this morning across MRY [Monterey CA], but are forecast to scatter out later this morning. IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions prevail at haf where ceilings are forecast to lift to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] later this morning, but are likely to keep ceilings through the day. Onshore winds increase once again this afternoon, but not expecting any strong gusts at any of the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites. Wind speeds ease overnight and LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules]-IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]-MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions are forecast to return to most TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites. Greatest potential will be across the Monterey Bay terminals this evening with moderate to high confidence for the Bay Area terminals early Tuesday morning. Onshore winds once again increase by Tuesday afternoon with gradually clearing sky conditions. ∨ IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS MRY, BUT ARE FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT HAF WHERE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING, BUT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG GUSTS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WIND SPEEDS EASE OVERNIGHT AND LIFR-IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO MOST TAF SITES. GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE BAY AREA TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. [AVI2] Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Onshore winds increase this afternoon with VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions anticipated to prevail through the day. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings to return to the region early Tuesday morning with ceilings at SFO [San Francisco CA] expected to be around 1,000 feet. Onshore winds once again increase by Tuesday afternoon with gradually clearing sky conditions. ∨ VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS AT SFO EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1,000 FEET. ONSHORE WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings prevail over MRY [Monterey CA], yet sky conditions are expected to scatter out by late morning. Onshore winds increase this afternoon before easing overnight. High confidence of LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings returning late this evening and lowering during the early morning hours on Tuesday. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CEILINGS PREVAIL OVER MRY, YET SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING LATE THIS EVENING AND LOWERING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. [AVI2] Marine. (today through Saturday) issued at 10:26am PDT Monday June 23 2025 ∨ .MARINE... (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 1026 AM PDT MON JUN 23 2025 [AVIA] Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail through the week. Seas be moderate though Wednesday and build to rough by the end of the week. ∨ FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS BE MODERATE THOUGH WEDNESDAY AND BUILD TO ROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. [AVI2] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508. [WARN]
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM. [WRN2]
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM. [WRN2]
SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RGASS MARINE...RGASS [WRN2] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, x, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA X.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC] |
Point Forecast Half Moon Bay Airport 23 Jun 05:15pm PDT Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57°. West wind 5 to 9 mph. Tuesday Night Cloudy, with a low around 51°. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Wednesday Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 59°. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. West wind 5 to 9 mph. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 60°. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 61°. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62°. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 61°. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59°. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. West wind 5 to 9 mph. Tuesday Night Cloudy, with a low around 51. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Wednesday Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. West wind 5 to 9 mph. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 61. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 61. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. |
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