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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 091715 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 091715
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 9:15am PST Sat Dec 9 2023 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
915 AM PST SAT DEC 9 2023 [HEAD]

New update.  

...NEW UPDATE... [DISC]

Synopsis. Issued at 12:23am PST Sat December 9 2023 

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM PST SAT DEC 9 2023 [DISC]

High pressure will bring quiet weather over the next several days. Cold overnights and interior frost/freezing conditions are expected this weekend before a gradual warming trend occurs early next week. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
COLD OVERNIGHTS AND INTERIOR FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Update. Issued at 9:15am PST Sat December 9 2023 

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM PST SAT DEC 9 2023 [DISC]

To start the weekend, upper level ridging is nosing in from the SW. A few high clouds are riding the periphery of the ridge this morning, but for the most part sunny skies to start the day. Despite a few clouds overhead this morning conditions were good enough for some radiational cooling. Interior portions of the North Bay valleys and interior Monterey/San Benito are currently under a Freeze Warning and also the coldest locations. A few spots in the Salinas Valley reached the mid to upper 20s. Bradley for instance hit 25° this morning. While other areas were not in a frost/freeze product it was still chilly. Even a few coastal locations hits the mid to upper 30s. No updated needed this morning. 

TO START THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOSING IN FROM THE
SW. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THIS
MORNING, BUT FOR THE MOST PART SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY.
DESPITE A FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING CONDITIONS WERE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS AND INTERIOR MONTEREY/SAN BENITO ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A FREEZE WARNING AND ALSO THE COLDEST LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS
IN THE SALINAS VALLEY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 20S. BRADLEY FOR
INSTANCE HIT 25 DEGREES THIS MORNING. WHILE OTHER AREAS WERE NOT
IN A FROST/FREEZE PRODUCT IT WAS STILL CHILLY. EVEN A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS HITS THE MID TO UPPER 30S. NO UPDATED NEEDED THIS
MORNING... [DISC]

After the chilly start today will be a mild and in the 60s. 

AFTER THE CHILLY START TODAY WILL BE A MILD AND IN THE 60S. [DISC]

Short term. (today and tonight) issued at 12:23am PST Sat December 9 2023 

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM PST SAT DEC 9 2023 [DISC]

The storm track will be diverted well to our north as high pressure aloft noses into our area from the southwest. This will support surface ridging as it expands to encompass the Great Basin and provide a light offshore wind regime to the area. After a cold and frosty (for some) start this morning look for temperatures to reach the lower to mid 60s across the region today with plenty of sunshine. Tonight will be cool, but not quite as cold as the previous nights have been. That said, the coldest portions of the inland Central Coast and North Bay valleys will still see temperatures at or below 35° or so. Therefore the Freeze Watch was converted to a Frost Advisory for these areas from late tonight into Sunday morning. Remember to protect people, pets, plants and pipes from the cold. 

THE STORM TRACK WILL BE DIVERTED WELL TO OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT NOSES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE RIDGING AS IT EXPANDS TO ENCOMPASS THE GREAT BASIN AND
PROVIDE A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND REGIME TO THE AREA. AFTER A COLD AND
FROSTY (FOR SOME) START THIS MORNING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. TONIGHT WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE BEEN. THAT SAID, THE COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND CENTRAL COAST AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS WILL STILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 35 DEGREES OR SO. THEREFORE THE FREEZE
WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. REMEMBER TO PROTECT PEOPLE, PETS,
PLANTS AND PIPES FROM THE COLD. [DISC]

Long term. (Sunday through Friday) issued at 12:23am PST Sat December 9 2023 

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM PST SAT DEC 9 2023 [DISC]

Relatively quiet weather will prevail for the remainder of the week with gradually warming daytime temperatures. Overnight readings will remain cool however with the coldest interior locations dipping into the upper 30s and 40s. Daytime highs will be mostly in the 60s. 

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL
REMAIN COOL HOWEVER WITH THE COLDEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S. [DISC]

Looking ahead deterministic models and their ensembles suggest a more unsettled pattern developing around December 16th-18th. Still some fine tuning of the details but it does appear that rain will re-enter the forecast picture around this time. 

LOOKING AHEAD DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING AROUND DECEMBER 16TH-18TH.
STILL SOME FINE TUNING OF THE DETAILS BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN
WILL RE- ENTER THE FORECAST PICTURE AROUND THIS TIME. [DISC]

Aviation. (12Z [4am PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 3:29am PST Sat December 9 2023 

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 329 AM PST SAT DEC 9 2023 [AVIA]

High pressure dominates the pattern. The terminals will remain mostly VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with few to scattered high clouds and light to gentle winds through the day. The only exception is STS [Santa Rosa CA], where some morning mist/fog will reduce the visibility to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]. It's also worth noting that the temperature is approaching freezing and some aircraft icing is expected before the mist/fog clears after sunrise. There is also a low to moderate chance for dense fog and LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] conditions to develop at STS [Santa Rosa CA] later this morning. 

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR WITH FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS STS, WHERE SOME
MORNING MIST/FOG WILL REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO MVFR/IFR. IT`S
ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE TEMPERATURE IS APPROACHING FREEZING AND
SOME AIRCRAFT ICING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE MIST/FOG CLEARS AFTER
SUNRISE. THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG AND
LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT STS LATER THIS MORNING. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Light winds may shift erratically with no discernible steering flow through mid day. A gentle NW sea breeze will develop in the afternoon before winds return to light and variable Saturday night. 

VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS MAY SHIFT
ERRATICALLY WITH NO DISCERNIBLE STEERING FLOW THROUGH MID DAY. A
GENTLE NW SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS
RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Light drainage flow this morning before onshore flow resumes in the afternoon. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT DRAINAGE
FLOW THIS MORNING BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES IN THE AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

Marine. (tonight through next Wednesday) issued at 3:01am PST Sat December 9 2023 

.MARINE...
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM PST SAT DEC 9 2023 [AVIA]

High pressure will bring quiet and dry conditions to the region. Light to moderate northerly breezes persist through the weekend with diminishing seas. Fresh to strong breezes return to the offshore waters by early to mid next week. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH DIMINISHING SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES RETURN TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. [AVI2]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • California: Freeze Warning until 10am PST this morning for CAZ506–516–518. 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ506-516-518. [WARN]
  • Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10am PST Sunday for CAZ506–516–518. 
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
CAZ506-516-518. [WRN2]
  • Pacific Ocean: none. 
PZ...NONE. [WRN2]
  • Short term…SPM long term…SPM aviation…flynn marine…SPM 
SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...SPM [WRN2]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay Airport

09 Dec 09:15am PST

Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°. North wind around 8 mph.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 40°. NE wind around 6 mph.
Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 60°. NE wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45°. NNW wind around 7 mph.
Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 60°. NW wind 6 to 9 mph.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45°.
Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44°.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62°.
Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. North wind around 8 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Northeast wind around 6 mph.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North northwest wind around 7 mph.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: