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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 210549 AFDMTR ∨

FXUS66 KMTR 210549
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:49pm PDT Mon Mar 20 2023 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1049 PM PDT MON MAR 20 2023 [HEAD]

Synopsis. High winds and widespread rainfall tomorrow, with High Wind Warnings out for the Monterey and San Benito Mountains and Wind Advisories from the San Francisco Bay Area to the Monterey County coast. Scattered showers persist into Wednesday and unsettled pattern continues into next week. Monitoring potential for unseasonably cold temperatures next weekend, and a new storm system the beginning of next week. ∨

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOMORROW, WITH HIGH
WIND WARNINGS OUT FOR THE MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS AND WIND
ADVISORIES FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA TO THE MONTEREY COUNTY
COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND, AND A NEW STORM SYSTEM
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 08:49pm PDT Monday… a few notable shifts among high resolution guidance this evening helps to bring a little more confidence in the forecast. At this point, it seems likely that the surface low will move into the coastal region very near the SF Peninsula. A low coming onshore in this location would still keep the highest winds to the south of the Bay Area proper, though with antecedent conditions, still expect impacts due to downed trees and power lines across the Bay Area. For now, kept the Bay Area and surrounding coastline under High Wind Advisory, while upgrading the Big Sur coast, southern Monterey Bay, and northern Salinas Valley to be included in the High Wind Warning. Highest winds in these areas still expected to be along the Big Sur coast, Santa Lucia Range, San Benito County, and towards the northern end of the Salinas Valley including the central Monterey Bay coastline. ∨

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:49 PM PDT MONDAY...A FEW NOTABLE SHIFTS
AMONG HIGH RES GUIDANCE THIS EVENING HELPS TO BRING A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL REGION VERY NEAR THE SF
PENINSULA. A LOW COMING ONSHORE IN THIS LOCATION WOULD STILL KEEP
THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA PROPER, THOUGH
WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, STILL EXPECT IMPACTS DUE TO DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS THE BAY AREA. FOR NOW, KEPT THE BAY
AREA AND SURROUNDING COASTLINE UNDER HIGH WIND ADVISORY, WHILE
UPGRADING THE BIG SUR COAST, SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY, AND NORTHERN
SALINAS VALLEY TO BE INCLUDED IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HIGHEST
WINDS IN THESE AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST,
SANTA LUCIA RANGE, SAN BENITO COUNTY, AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
END OF THE SALINAS VALLEY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL MONTEREY BAY
COASTLINE. [DISC]

Another noteworthy bit to add… our criteria for bomb cyclogenesis [formation or intensification of a cyclone or low-pressure storm system] at this latitude is about 17 millibars in 24 hours. Current model guidance does suggest this will happen during a short period Tuesday morning, though impacts remain the same regardless of if we technically meet this criteria or not. ∨

ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY BIT TO ADD...OUR CRITERIA FOR BOMB
CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS LATITUDE IS ABOUT 17 MILLIBARS IN 24 HOURS.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING A
SHORT PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH IMPACTS REMAIN THE SAME
REGARDLESS OF IF WE TECHNICALLY MEET THIS CRITERIA OR NOT. [DISC]

Previous discussion… as of 03:11pm PDT Monday. A break in the rain for the rest of today as winds remain light and mainly clear, with highs in the lower elevations in the mid 50s to low 60s, and into the mid 40s to low 50s for the higher elevations. ∨

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 PM PDT MONDAY...A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, AND INTO THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. [DISC]

A storm system is approaching California and will impact the SF Bay Area and Central Coast starting early on Tuesday. While the system is associated with an atmospheric river approaching the state, the main moisture tap will be directed to our south in Southern California and Baja California. For our area, winds will be the main issue, with the most impactful gusts Tuesday morning into the afternoon. A High Wind Warning is in effect from 7am to 9pm Tuesday in the mountains of Monterey and San Benito Counties, where southerly gusts of over 70 mph are expected. Elsewhere, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the East and South Bay, the San Mateo peninsula, and the lower elevations of the Central Coast, also from 7am to 9pm Tuesday, with southerly wind gusts of up to 40–50 mph are expected, with more intense gusts in the higher elevations. The North Bay should see gusts of up to 20–25 mph. Much of the uncertainty in the strength of the wind gusts is in the wider SF Bay region, as models are still having difficulty on the location of a surface low that's expected to enhance wind gusts. The global GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] and European models are bringing the low to a stall off the coast of the San Mateo peninsula, while the higher resolution HRRR and NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] are bringing the low onshore along the Central Coast. We will continue to closely monitor the surface low and its evolution as the impact comes closer. ∨

A STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING CALIFORNIA AND WILL IMPACT THE SF BAY
AREA AND CENTRAL COAST STARTING EARLY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER APPROACHING THE STATE, THE
MAIN MOISTURE TAP WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR SOUTH IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. FOR OUR AREA, WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE, WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL GUSTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM
TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES, WHERE
SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF OVER 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY, THE SAN MATEO
PENINSULA, AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST, ALSO FROM
7 AM TO 9 PM TUESDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40-50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED, WITH MORE INTENSE GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THE
NORTH BAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 MPH. MUCH OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND GUSTS IS IN THE WIDER SF BAY
REGION, AS MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY ON THE LOCATION OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT`S EXPECTED TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS. THE GLOBAL GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE BRINGING THE LOW TO A STALL OFF THE COAST OF
THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA, WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM
ARE BRINGING THE LOW ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS EVOLUTION AS THE
IMPACT COMES CLOSER. [DISC]

Rainfall will be a secondary impact in our area, although expected totals are not as high as those in Southern California. Here too, the most intense rain is expected Tuesday morning and afternoon. The lower elevations of the North Bay, SF Bay Area, and Central Coast are currently forecast to see three-quarters of an inch to one inch of rain, save for the most northern parts of Sonoma County where rain totals go down to half an inch. The Central Coast Mountains remain the regional epicenter of rain impacts, with rain totals in the Santa Lucia Mountains expected to range from 2–3 inches, and the Santa Cruz and interior Monterey and San Benito Mountains expected to reach 1.5–2.5 inches of rain. Higher elevations in the Bay Area should expect 1–2 inches of rain. A slight chance of thunderstorms exists into the post-frontal environment on Tuesday evening, especially on the Central Coast. ∨

RAINFALL WILL BE A SECONDARY IMPACT IN OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH EXPECTED
TOTALS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THOSE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HERE TOO,
THE MOST INTENSE RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH BAY, SF BAY AREA, AND CENTRAL COAST
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SEE THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH
OF RAIN, SAVE FOR THE MOST NORTHERN PARTS OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE
RAIN TOTALS GO DOWN TO HALF AN INCH. THE CENTRAL COAST MOUNTAINS
REMAIN THE REGIONAL EPICENTER OF RAIN IMPACTS, WITH RAIN TOTALS IN
THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES, AND
THE SANTA CRUZ AND INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS
EXPECTED TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE BAY AREA SHOULD EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS INTO THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON THE CENTRAL COAST. [DISC]

The combination of continued rain, high winds, and saturated soils poses a set of hazards that, at this point, are now familiar to many in our region. The rain brings a chance for minor urban and small stream flooding, and with soils already so saturated from the storms earlier this month, the risk of shallow landslides continue. High wind gusts will also result in downed trees and power lines, possibly resulting in isolated power outages, and difficult driving for high profile vehicles. If your area is prone to power outages, use today to prepare, and remember to "turn around, don't drown" when encountering a flooded roadway or path. ∨

THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED RAIN, HIGH WINDS, AND SATURATED SOILS
POSES A SET OF HAZARDS THAT, AT THIS POINT, ARE NOW FAMILIAR TO MANY
IN OUR REGION. THE RAIN BRINGS A CHANCE FOR MINOR URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING, AND WITH SOILS ALREADY SO SATURATED FROM THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MONTH, THE RISK OF SHALLOW LANDSLIDES CONTINUE. HIGH
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES,
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES, AND DIFFICULT DRIVING
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. IF YOUR AREA IS PRONE TO POWER OUTAGES,
USE TODAY TO PREPARE, AND REMEMBER TO "TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN"
WHEN ENCOUNTERING A FLOODED ROADWAY OR PATH. [DISC]

The heaviest rain diminishes Tuesday evening, with post frontal showers expected through Wednesday. Current predictions leave Thursday to Saturday relatively dry with very little, if any, rain. Any rain that falls in the next three days is not expected to rise past half an inch in total. All attention then focuses on the beginning of the next week, where early model indications suggest another system coming through, the exact details of which won't become clear until later in the week. In addition, low temperatures next weekend are expected to dip into unseasonably cold readings, with lows in the low to mid 30s expected Saturday and Sunday morning in the interior valleys, including the Sonoma, Napa, and Salinas Valleys, and into the higher elevations. With the occurrence of "Bud break" in the North Bay vineyards, and the spring harvest approaching, this is a particularly sensitive time for the agricultural industries. More details on the low temperatures and the system next week will come as the forecast gets refined later in the week. ∨

THE HEAVIEST RAIN DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING, WITH POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT PREDICTIONS LEAVE
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY WITH VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, RAIN.
ANY RAIN THAT FALLS IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE
PAST HALF AN INCH IN TOTAL. ALL ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK, WHERE EARLY MODEL INDICATIONS SUGGEST
ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH, THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHICH WON`T
BECOME CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, LOW TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO UNSEASONABLY COLD READINGS,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE SONOMA, NAPA, AND SALINAS
VALLEYS, AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF "BUD
BREAK" IN THE NORTH BAY VINEYARDS, AND THE SPRING HARVEST
APPROACHING, THIS IS A PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TIME FOR THE
AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES. MORE DETAILS ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND
THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK WILL COME AS THE FORECAST GETS REFINED LATER IN
THE WEEK. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:50pm PDT Monday… for the 00Z [5pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lasts into early Tuesday morning. Easterly and southeasterly winds begin to increase as a strong surface low approaches. This low pressure system will bring moderate to heavy rain starting early morning lasting through the afternoon with scattered showers continuing through the evening and lingering into the night. Expect MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings for most of the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. As the center of the low moves inland, southerly winds will increase. Strong gusts of 35–40 knots [40–46 mph] possible across the region, primarily south of the Golden Gate. Winds begin to diminish int Tuesday night. ∨

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT MONDAY..FOR THE 00Z TAFS..VFR LASTS
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN STARTING EARLY MORNING
LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING AND LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES INLAND,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. STRONG GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE.
WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH INT TUESDAY NIGHT. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] last until early Tuesday morning before rain arrives at the terminal around 12Z [5am PDT] with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions expected. Winds will turn easterly around that time and increase as low approaches. Winds shift southeast as low moves inland and eventually become even more southerly into the afternoon. Wind gusts become strongest between 20Z [1pm PDT] and 04Z [9pm PDT] with gusts up to 34 knots [39 mph] (but potentially higher depending where low sets up and will continue to monitor). Expect winds to reduce into Tuesday night, but they will stay breezy. ∨

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR LAST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RAIN
ARRIVES AT THE TERMINAL AROUND 12Z  WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY AROUND THAT TIME AND INCREASE AS LOW
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS LOW MOVES INLAND AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS BECOME
STRONGEST BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS (BUT
POTENTIALLY HIGHER DEPENDING WHERE LOW SETS UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR). EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THEY WILL
STAY BREEZY. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lasts into the morning before MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] through the rest of the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Southeast winds increase starting in the early morning and look to continue to gain strength through the morning with 40 kt [46 mph] gusts possible. Moderate, to at times of heavy, rain will accompany the increased winds. Rain chances as well as the elevated winds begin to reduce into Tuesday night. ∨

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR LASTS INTO THE MORNING BEFORE MVFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
STARTING IN THE EARLY MORNING AND LOOK TO CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH 40 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. MODERATE, TO AT TIMES
OF HEAVY, RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASED WINDS. RAIN CHANCES AS
WELL AS THE ELEVATED WINDS BEGIN TO REDUCE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 10:47pm PDT Monday… a robust low pressure system arrives overnight tonight, moving through the coastal waters through the morning Tuesday, bringing gale force gusts to much of the waters south of Pigeon Point [Pescadero CA]. Storm force gusts possible as low moves through Tuesday morning. Widespread rain also expected overnight through Wednesday. By midweek, a west swell will combined with wind wave will create high and steep seas. A long period northwesterly swell also expected to arrive towards the end of the week. ∨

.MARINE...AS OF 10:47 PM PDT MONDAY...A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, MOVING  THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY, BRINGING  GALE FORCE GUSTS TO MUCH OF
THE WATERS SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT.  STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AS
LOW MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  WIDESPREAD RAIN ALSO EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY  MIDWEEK, A WEST SWELL WILL
COMBINED WITH WIND WAVE WILL CREATE  HIGH AND STEEP SEAS. A LONG
PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ALSO  EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Tonight: Small Craft Advisory…SF Bay from 3am Small Craft Advisory…Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 3am Small Craft Advisory…Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 3am GLW…Monterey Bay from 3am GLW…Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 3am GLW…Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 3am GLW…Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] from 3am Small Craft Advisory…Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] until 3am Small Craft Advisory…Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] until 3am Small Craft Advisory…Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] from 3am ∨

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
GLW...MRY BAY FROM 3 AM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Dialh/Behringer; Aviation: Murdock; Marine: McCorkle ∨

PUBLIC FORECAST: DIALH/BEHRINGER
AVIATION: MURDOCK
MARINE: MCCORKLE [CRED]

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Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 210549 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 210549 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:49pm PDT Mon Mar 20 2023 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 1049 PM PDT MON MAR 20 2023 [HEAD] Synopsis. High winds and widespread rainfall tomorrow, with High Wind Warnings out for the Monterey and San Benito Mountains and Wind Advisories from the San Francisco Bay Area to the Monterey County coast. Scattered showers persist into Wednesday and unsettled pattern continues into next week. Monitoring potential for unseasonably cold temperatures next weekend, and a new storm system the beginning of next week. ∨ .SYNOPSIS...HIGH WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOMORROW, WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS OUT FOR THE MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS AND WIND ADVISORIES FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA TO THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND, AND A NEW STORM SYSTEM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. [DISC] Discussion. As of 08:49pm PDT Monday… a few notable shifts among high resolution guidance this evening helps to bring a little more confidence in the forecast. At this point, it seems likely that the surface low will move into the coastal region very near the SF Peninsula. A low coming onshore in this location would still keep the highest winds to the south of the Bay Area proper, though with antecedent conditions, still expect impacts due to downed trees and power lines across the Bay Area. For now, kept the Bay Area and surrounding coastline under High Wind Advisory, while upgrading the Big Sur coast, southern Monterey Bay, and northern Salinas Valley to be included in the High Wind Warning. Highest winds in these areas still expected to be along the Big Sur coast, Santa Lucia Range, San Benito County, and towards the northern end of the Salinas Valley including the central Monterey Bay coastline. ∨ .DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:49 PM PDT MONDAY...A FEW NOTABLE SHIFTS AMONG HIGH RES GUIDANCE THIS EVENING HELPS TO BRING A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL REGION VERY NEAR THE SF PENINSULA. A LOW COMING ONSHORE IN THIS LOCATION WOULD STILL KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA PROPER, THOUGH WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, STILL EXPECT IMPACTS DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS THE BAY AREA. FOR NOW, KEPT THE BAY AREA AND SURROUNDING COASTLINE UNDER HIGH WIND ADVISORY, WHILE UPGRADING THE BIG SUR COAST, SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY, AND NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY TO BE INCLUDED IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HIGHEST WINDS IN THESE AREAS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST, SANTA LUCIA RANGE, SAN BENITO COUNTY, AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN END OF THE SALINAS VALLEY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL MONTEREY BAY COASTLINE. [DISC] Another noteworthy bit to add… our criteria for bomb cyclogenesis [formation or intensification of a cyclone or low-pressure storm system] at this latitude is about 17 millibars in 24 hours. Current model guidance does suggest this will happen during a short period Tuesday morning, though impacts remain the same regardless of if we technically meet this criteria or not. ∨ ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY BIT TO ADD...OUR CRITERIA FOR BOMB CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS LATITUDE IS ABOUT 17 MILLIBARS IN 24 HOURS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING A SHORT PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH IMPACTS REMAIN THE SAME REGARDLESS OF IF WE TECHNICALLY MEET THIS CRITERIA OR NOT. [DISC] Previous discussion… as of 03:11pm PDT Monday. A break in the rain for the rest of today as winds remain light and mainly clear, with highs in the lower elevations in the mid 50s to low 60s, and into the mid 40s to low 50s for the higher elevations. ∨ .PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:11 PM PDT MONDAY...A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, AND INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. [DISC] A storm system is approaching California and will impact the SF Bay Area and Central Coast starting early on Tuesday. While the system is associated with an atmospheric river approaching the state, the main moisture tap will be directed to our south in Southern California and Baja California. For our area, winds will be the main issue, with the most impactful gusts Tuesday morning into the afternoon. A High Wind Warning is in effect from 7am to 9pm Tuesday in the mountains of Monterey and San Benito Counties, where southerly gusts of over 70 mph are expected. Elsewhere, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the East and South Bay, the San Mateo peninsula, and the lower elevations of the Central Coast, also from 7am to 9pm Tuesday, with southerly wind gusts of up to 40–50 mph are expected, with more intense gusts in the higher elevations. The North Bay should see gusts of up to 20–25 mph. Much of the uncertainty in the strength of the wind gusts is in the wider SF Bay region, as models are still having difficulty on the location of a surface low that's expected to enhance wind gusts. The global GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] and European models are bringing the low to a stall off the coast of the San Mateo peninsula, while the higher resolution HRRR and NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] are bringing the low onshore along the Central Coast. We will continue to closely monitor the surface low and its evolution as the impact comes closer. ∨ A STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING CALIFORNIA AND WILL IMPACT THE SF BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST STARTING EARLY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER APPROACHING THE STATE, THE MAIN MOISTURE TAP WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR SOUTH IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. FOR OUR AREA, WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE, WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL GUSTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES, WHERE SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF OVER 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY, THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA, AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST, ALSO FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM TUESDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH MORE INTENSE GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE NORTH BAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 MPH. MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND GUSTS IS IN THE WIDER SF BAY REGION, AS MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY ON THE LOCATION OF A SURFACE LOW THAT`S EXPECTED TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS. THE GLOBAL GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE BRINGING THE LOW TO A STALL OFF THE COAST OF THE SAN MATEO PENINSULA, WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM ARE BRINGING THE LOW ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS EVOLUTION AS THE IMPACT COMES CLOSER. [DISC] Rainfall will be a secondary impact in our area, although expected totals are not as high as those in Southern California. Here too, the most intense rain is expected Tuesday morning and afternoon. The lower elevations of the North Bay, SF Bay Area, and Central Coast are currently forecast to see three-quarters of an inch to one inch of rain, save for the most northern parts of Sonoma County where rain totals go down to half an inch. The Central Coast Mountains remain the regional epicenter of rain impacts, with rain totals in the Santa Lucia Mountains expected to range from 2–3 inches, and the Santa Cruz and interior Monterey and San Benito Mountains expected to reach 1.5–2.5 inches of rain. Higher elevations in the Bay Area should expect 1–2 inches of rain. A slight chance of thunderstorms exists into the post-frontal environment on Tuesday evening, especially on the Central Coast. ∨ RAINFALL WILL BE A SECONDARY IMPACT IN OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH EXPECTED TOTALS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THOSE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HERE TOO, THE MOST INTENSE RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH BAY, SF BAY AREA, AND CENTRAL COAST ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SEE THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN, SAVE FOR THE MOST NORTHERN PARTS OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE RAIN TOTALS GO DOWN TO HALF AN INCH. THE CENTRAL COAST MOUNTAINS REMAIN THE REGIONAL EPICENTER OF RAIN IMPACTS, WITH RAIN TOTALS IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES, AND THE SANTA CRUZ AND INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE BAY AREA SHOULD EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS INTO THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON THE CENTRAL COAST. [DISC] The combination of continued rain, high winds, and saturated soils poses a set of hazards that, at this point, are now familiar to many in our region. The rain brings a chance for minor urban and small stream flooding, and with soils already so saturated from the storms earlier this month, the risk of shallow landslides continue. High wind gusts will also result in downed trees and power lines, possibly resulting in isolated power outages, and difficult driving for high profile vehicles. If your area is prone to power outages, use today to prepare, and remember to "turn around, don't drown" when encountering a flooded roadway or path. ∨ THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED RAIN, HIGH WINDS, AND SATURATED SOILS POSES A SET OF HAZARDS THAT, AT THIS POINT, ARE NOW FAMILIAR TO MANY IN OUR REGION. THE RAIN BRINGS A CHANCE FOR MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING, AND WITH SOILS ALREADY SO SATURATED FROM THE STORMS EARLIER THIS MONTH, THE RISK OF SHALLOW LANDSLIDES CONTINUE. HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES, AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. IF YOUR AREA IS PRONE TO POWER OUTAGES, USE TODAY TO PREPARE, AND REMEMBER TO "TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN" WHEN ENCOUNTERING A FLOODED ROADWAY OR PATH. [DISC] The heaviest rain diminishes Tuesday evening, with post frontal showers expected through Wednesday. Current predictions leave Thursday to Saturday relatively dry with very little, if any, rain. Any rain that falls in the next three days is not expected to rise past half an inch in total. All attention then focuses on the beginning of the next week, where early model indications suggest another system coming through, the exact details of which won't become clear until later in the week. In addition, low temperatures next weekend are expected to dip into unseasonably cold readings, with lows in the low to mid 30s expected Saturday and Sunday morning in the interior valleys, including the Sonoma, Napa, and Salinas Valleys, and into the higher elevations. With the occurrence of "Bud break" in the North Bay vineyards, and the spring harvest approaching, this is a particularly sensitive time for the agricultural industries. More details on the low temperatures and the system next week will come as the forecast gets refined later in the week. ∨ THE HEAVIEST RAIN DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING, WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT PREDICTIONS LEAVE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY WITH VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, RAIN. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE PAST HALF AN INCH IN TOTAL. ALL ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK, WHERE EARLY MODEL INDICATIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH, THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHICH WON`T BECOME CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, LOW TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO UNSEASONABLY COLD READINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE SONOMA, NAPA, AND SALINAS VALLEYS, AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF "BUD BREAK" IN THE NORTH BAY VINEYARDS, AND THE SPRING HARVEST APPROACHING, THIS IS A PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TIME FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES. MORE DETAILS ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK WILL COME AS THE FORECAST GETS REFINED LATER IN THE WEEK. [DISC] Aviation. As of 10:50pm PDT Monday… for the 00Z [5pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lasts into early Tuesday morning. Easterly and southeasterly winds begin to increase as a strong surface low approaches. This low pressure system will bring moderate to heavy rain starting early morning lasting through the afternoon with scattered showers continuing through the evening and lingering into the night. Expect MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings for most of the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. As the center of the low moves inland, southerly winds will increase. Strong gusts of 35–40 knots [40–46 mph] possible across the region, primarily south of the Golden Gate. Winds begin to diminish int Tuesday night. ∨ .AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT MONDAY..FOR THE 00Z TAFS..VFR LASTS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN STARTING EARLY MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES INLAND, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. STRONG GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH INT TUESDAY NIGHT. [AVIA] Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] last until early Tuesday morning before rain arrives at the terminal around 12Z [5am PDT] with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions expected. Winds will turn easterly around that time and increase as low approaches. Winds shift southeast as low moves inland and eventually become even more southerly into the afternoon. Wind gusts become strongest between 20Z [1pm PDT] and 04Z [9pm PDT] with gusts up to 34 knots [39 mph] (but potentially higher depending where low sets up and will continue to monitor). Expect winds to reduce into Tuesday night, but they will stay breezy. ∨ VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR LAST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES AT THE TERMINAL AROUND 12Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY AROUND THAT TIME AND INCREASE AS LOW APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS LOW MOVES INLAND AND EVENTUALLY BECOME EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS BECOME STRONGEST BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS (BUT POTENTIALLY HIGHER DEPENDING WHERE LOW SETS UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR). EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THEY WILL STAY BREEZY. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lasts into the morning before MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] through the rest of the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Southeast winds increase starting in the early morning and look to continue to gain strength through the morning with 40 kt [46 mph] gusts possible. Moderate, to at times of heavy, rain will accompany the increased winds. Rain chances as well as the elevated winds begin to reduce into Tuesday night. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR LASTS INTO THE MORNING BEFORE MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE STARTING IN THE EARLY MORNING AND LOOK TO CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH 40 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. MODERATE, TO AT TIMES OF HEAVY, RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASED WINDS. RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS THE ELEVATED WINDS BEGIN TO REDUCE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. [AVI2] Marine. As of 10:47pm PDT Monday… a robust low pressure system arrives overnight tonight, moving through the coastal waters through the morning Tuesday, bringing gale force gusts to much of the waters south of Pigeon Point [Pescadero CA]. Storm force gusts possible as low moves through Tuesday morning. Widespread rain also expected overnight through Wednesday. By midweek, a west swell will combined with wind wave will create high and steep seas. A long period northwesterly swell also expected to arrive towards the end of the week. ∨ .MARINE...AS OF 10:47 PM PDT MONDAY...A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY, BRINGING GALE FORCE GUSTS TO MUCH OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF PIGEON POINT. STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AS LOW MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, A WEST SWELL WILL COMBINED WITH WIND WAVE WILL CREATE HIGH AND STEEP SEAS. A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. [AVIA] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories Tonight: Small Craft Advisory…SF Bay from 3am Small Craft Advisory…Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 3am Small Craft Advisory…Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 3am GLW…Monterey Bay from 3am GLW…Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 3am GLW…Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 3am GLW…Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] from 3am Small Craft Advisory…Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] until 3am Small Craft Advisory…Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] until 3am Small Craft Advisory…Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] from 3am ∨ .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 AM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM GLW...MRY BAY FROM 3 AM GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM [WARN] Public Forecast: Dialh/Behringer; Aviation: Murdock; Marine: McCorkle ∨ PUBLIC FORECAST: DIALH/BEHRINGER AVIATION: MURDOCK MARINE: MCCORKLE [CRED] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]	Point Forecast Half Moon Bay Airport 20 Mar 11:35pm PDT Overnight Rain. Steady temperature around 45°. East wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday Rain. High near 52°. Breezy, with an east wind 20 to 28 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tuesday Night Rain. Low around 43°. Breezy, with a south wind 21 to 26 mph becoming ENE 14 to 19 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday A 50% chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 54°. ENE wind 9 to 11 mph becoming WNW in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44°. NW wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 54°. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42°. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 53°. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 41°. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 53°. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 40°. Sunday A slight chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 52°. Sunday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42°. Monday Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52°. Overnight Rain. Steady temperature around 45. East wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday Rain. High near 52. Breezy, with an east wind 20 to 28 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tuesday Night Rain. Low around 43. Breezy, with a south wind 21 to 26 mph becoming east northeast 14 to 19 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday A 50 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 54. East northeast wind 9 to 11 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 53. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 40. Sunday A slight chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Sunday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Monday Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52.
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