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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 201007 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 201007
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 3:07am PDT Fri Jul 20 2018 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
307 AM PDT FRI JUL 20 2018 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Temperatures will gradually decrease the remainder of the week with the potential for thunderstorms in the mountains. Hot weather returns next week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOT
WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. Clear skies across interior Northern California early this morning. Current temperatures range from the upper 40s to mid 50s in the mountain valleys to the mid 60s to mid 70s across the Central Valley (except lower to mid 80s across the north end of the Sacramento Valley). 

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY
(EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY). [DISC]

Strong upper ridging of the past several days will weaken a bit through the end of the week as an upper low traverses southern BC with a weak trough trailing back into Northern California. The combination of a little stronger onshore flow along with slight synoptic cooling will result in a little cooler temperatures across the region over the next few days. 

STRONG UPPER RIDGING OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL WEAKEN A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSES SOUTHERN
BC WITH A WEAK TROUGH TRAILING BACK INTO NORCAL. THE COMBINATION
OF A LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH SLIGHT SYNOPTIC
COOLING WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. [DISC]

Additionally, an increase in monsoon moisture will bring greater cloud cover helping to edge temperatures down a bit as well. With the return of monsoon moisture spreading further north, thunderstorm activity will become more widespread across interior Northern California through the weekend. Most of the action is expected to be diurnal in nature and mainly over the mountains, but we can't completely rule out a slim chance for a few storms occurring elsewhere tonight and early Saturday as moisture spreads north. 

ADDITIONALLY, AN INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING GREATER
CLOUD COVER HELPING TO EDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT AS WELL. WITH
THE RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH,
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR
NORCAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNAL IN NATURE AND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT WE CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SLIM CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH. [DISC]

The ridge is forecast to reassert itself early next week resulting in a return to hot weather and capping the extent of mountain thunderstorm activity. 

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REASSERT ITSELF EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER AND CAPPING THE EXTENT OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. [DISC]

Extended discussion (Tuesday through Friday) an expansive upper level ridge will bring hot weather across the region next week. By even July standards, this upper ridge will likely be rather anomalous, with NAEFS [North American Ensemble Forecast System] (North American ensemble forecast system) guidance projecting 500 mb heights to be 3–4 standard deviations higher than normal over Arizona/New Mexico. We will be on the northern fringe of this upper ridge, but with high confidence in the pattern we nudged temperatures up a few degrees across much of the extended period. Current consensus of solutions has widespread triple digit heat across much of the Central Valley through the extended period, with temperatures potentially approaching 110° again across the northern valley. (Dang) 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK. BY EVEN JULY STANDARDS, THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY BE RATHER ANOMALOUS, WITH NAEFS (NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM) GUIDANCE PROJECTING 500MB HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL OVER AZ/NM. WE WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE, BUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE PATTERN WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENT CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS HAS
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 110 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. DANG [DISC]

Aviation. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions the next 24 hours across TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites. South to west winds 5–15 knots [6–17 mph], except gusts to 30 kt [35 mph] near the Delta. (Dang) 

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS TAF SITES. SOUTH TO WEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS, EXCEPT GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE DELTA. DANG [AVIA]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • None. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

20 Jul 2:45pm PDT

Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 65°. SSE wind 8 to 13 mph.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 95°. SSE wind 5 to 11 mph becoming SW in the morning.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 66°. South wind 8 to 11 mph.
Sunday Sunny and hot, with a high near 97°. SSW wind 6 to 9 mph.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 62°. SSE wind around 10 mph.
Monday Sunny and hot, with a high near 100°.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 63°.
Tuesday Sunny and hot, with a high near 104°.
Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 62°.
Wednesday Sunny and hot, with a high near 104°.
Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 61°.
Thursday Sunny and hot, with a high near 102°.
Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 61°.
Friday Sunny and hot, with a high near 99°.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 65. South southeast wind 8 to 13 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. South southeast wind 5 to 11 mph becoming southwest in the morning.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66. South wind 8 to 11 mph.
Sunday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 97. South southwest wind 6 to 9 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62. South southeast wind around 10 mph.
Monday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 100.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63.
Tuesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 104.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 62.
Wednesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 104.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 61.
Thursday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 102.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 61.
Friday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 99.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: