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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 162010 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 162010
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 1:10pm PDT Tue Oct 16 2018 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
110 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2018 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Warm and dry into early next week. Chance of precipitation mid week next week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. Model in good agreement that general upper pattern will continue to remain the same for the next 4–6 days. Closed upper low over southwest US continues to rotate around through Friday and generally decreasing in strength as it does. This basically results in dry conditions with slightly above normal temperatures and decreasing winds speeds each day forward. 

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT GENERAL UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE NEXT 4 TO 6 DAYS. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST U.S. CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY AND
GENERALLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS IT DOES. THIS BASICALLY
RESULTS IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING WINDS SPEEDS EACH DAY FORWARD. [DISC]

Extended discussion (Saturday through Tuesday) 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) [DISC]

Getting to be a bit more confidence in the chance of some moisture late in the extended forecast for at least some parts of Northern California as the Rex block [blocking pattern where there is an upper level high located directly north of a closed low] upper pattern transtions into a more westerly flow. This is showing in the GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] IVT [GFS Integrated Water Vapor Transport ] ensemble trends of the weaker strength of 150 kg/(Mississippi). Will continue to go with NBM for POP [Probability of Precipitation] population as it seems to be handeling this situation well. (Rasch) 

GETTING TO BE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE
LATE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF NORCAL AS
THE REX BLOCK UPPER PATTERN TRANSTIONS INTO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.
THIS IS SHOWING IN THE GFS IVT ENSEMBLE TRENDS OF THE WEAKER
STRENGTH OF 150 KG/(MS). WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH NBM FOR POP
POPULATION AS IT SEEMS TO BE HANDELING THIS SITUATION WELL. RASCH [DISC]

Aviation.  

.AVIATION... [AVIA]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] scattered clouds conditions through Thursday. Winds generally below 10 kts [12 mph] at TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites, then becoming nearly calm or variable 03 kt [3 mph]. Isolated/local NE to E surface wind gusts up to 25–30 kts [29–35 mph] expected over west slope Sierra Nevada mainly over remote ridges/through canyons through 15Z [8am PDT] Wednesday. 

VFR SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THU. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS AT
TAF SITES, THEN BECOMING NEARLY CALM OR VRB03KT. ISOLATED/LOCAL NE
TO E SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED OVER WEST
SLOPE SIERRA NEVADA MAINLY OVER REMOTE RIDGES/THROUGH CANYONS
THROUGH 15Z WED. [AVI2]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • None. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

16 Oct 4:58pm PDT

Tonight Clear, with a low around 48°. Light and variable wind becoming ESE around 6 mph after midnight.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 82°. Light and variable wind.
Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 47°. Calm wind.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 82°. Calm wind.
Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 48°. NW wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 84°.
Friday Night Clear, with a low around 50°.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 84°.
Saturday Night Clear, with a low around 51°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 82°.
Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 50°.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 80°.
Monday Night A slight chance of showers. Mostly clear, with a low around 49°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 77°.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 48. Light and variable wind becoming east southeast around 6 mph after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 47. Calm wind.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 48. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 50.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Saturday Night
Clear, with a low around 51.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 82.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 50.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 80.
Monday Night
A slight chance of showers. Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: