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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 212100 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 212100
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 2:00pm PDT Sun Apr 21 2019 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
200 PM PDT SUN APR 21 2019 [HEAD]

Synopsis. High pressure will build over the region which will bring increasing temperatures and dry conditions to Northern California. High temperatures will start their ascent today and peak near the middle of the work week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR ASCENT TODAY AND PEAK NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. A though of low pressure is centered over central Nevada. Northerly flow over the interior is generating some breezy winds this afternoon that will decrease this evening. The models are still indicating some showers popping up this afternoon in the mountains mainly from around Highway 50 and southward with the activity dying off early this evening. 

.DISCUSSION...
A THOUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR IS GENERATING SOME BREEZY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 50 AND SOUTHWARD WITH THE
ACTIVITY DYING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. [DISC]

The low centered over Nevada will move southward on Monday centered near Yuma Arizona allowing for high pressure to build over Northern California. Temperatures will continue to warm each day this week with temperatures peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Northerly winds will continue the next couple of days and continue to be breezy on Monday. A lighter northerly flow is expected for Tuesday before reversing direction on Wednesday. 

THE LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY
CENTERED NEAR YUMA ARIZONA ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EACH
DAY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY. A
LIGHTER NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY BEFORE REVERSING
DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY. [DISC]

Extended discussion (Thursday through Sunday) 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) [DISC]

The high pressure ridge will weaken a little each day Thursday and Friday bringing a cooling trend but with temperatures staying well above normal. The GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] is trying to indicate some showers popping up over the mountains each day but confidence at this time is low. Maybe enough moisture from snow melt will add to the local environment to allow for a few afternoon showers to pop up. 

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE EACH DAY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BRINGING A COOLING TREND BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS IS TRYING TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
POPPING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME IS LOW. MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT WILL ADD TO THE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO POP UP. [DISC]

On Saturday and Sunday a trough will be deepening over the West Coast while a low pressure area moves into Southern California. The cooling trend will continue, bringing temperatures back down to around normal by Sunday. Most areas are expected to remain dry but a few showers over the mountains may occur in the north due to the deepening trough and from around Alpine County southward from the low moving into Southern California. 

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO AROUND NORMAL BY SUNDAY. MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
BUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY OCCUR IN THE NORTH DUE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FROM AROUND ALPINE COUNTY SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. [DISC]

Aviation.  

.AVIATION... [AVIA]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites with northerly winds 10–20 knots [12–23 mph] decreasing after 01Z [6pm PDT]

VFR CONDITIONS TAF SITES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS
DECREASING AFTER 01Z. [AVI2]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • None. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

21 Apr 3:45pm PDT

Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 51°. NW wind 9 to 14 mph becoming light north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 85°. NW wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 56°. NNW wind 13 to 18 mph decreasing to 6 to 11 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 88°. Light and variable wind becoming WSW around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59°. WNW wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 90°.
Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 59°.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 89°.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 57°.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 83°.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 55°.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 81°.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 78°.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph becoming light north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. North northwest wind 13 to 18 mph decreasing to 6 to 11 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 90.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 59.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 89.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 78.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: