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FXUS66 KLOX [Los Angeles/Oxna CA] 291855 AFDLOX ∨

FXUS66 KLOX 291855
AFDLOX [HEAD]

Updated
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 10:55am PST Fri Nov 29 2024 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1055 AM PST FRI NOV 29 2024 [HEAD]

Synopsis. 29/2:22am. ∨

.SYNOPSIS...29/222 AM. [DISC]

Dry weather with varying amounts of high clouds is expected through at least next Thursday. There will locally breezy canyon winds during the night and morning hours. Temperatures will trend upwards and reach warmer than normal by the weekend. ∨

DRY WEATHER WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. THERE WILL LOCALLY BREEZY CANYON
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARDS AND REACH WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. [DISC]

Short term (today–Sun)… 29/8:59am. ∨

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...29/859 AM. [DISC]

update ∨

***UPDATE*** [DISC]

Upper level ridging will move into Southern California through this afternoon. Extensive high clouds were moving through the ridge and into the area from the E Pacific this morning. Varying amounts of high clouds are expected to persist through the afternoon which will result in mostly cloudy skies across the region. ∨

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO SRN CA THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE HI CLOUDS WERE MOVING THRU THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA
FROM THE E PAC THIS MORNING. VARYING AMOUNTS OF HI CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. [DISC]

Good offshore pressure gradients to the E and N this morning (-5.4 mb LAX [Los Angeles CA]-DAG [Barstow/Daggett CA] and –3.5 mb LAX [Los Angeles CA]-BFL [Bakersfield CA] at 16Z [8am PST]) were contributing to breezy to gusty NE winds over the usual wind-prone areas of VTU [Ventura CA]/LA Counties as well as portions of SLO [San Luis Obispo CA]/Santa Barbara Counties including the Santa Lucia Range. The strongest winds were in and around the Santa Susanna Mountains where local gusts between 40 and 50 mph were noted. The offshore winds will gradually diminish through this afternoon, with some seabreezes developing near the coast by mid afternoon if not sooner as offshore gradients relax. ∨

GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO THE E AND N THIS MORNING
(-5.4 MB LAX-DAG AND -3.5 MB LAX-BFL AT 16Z) WERE CONTRIBUTING TO
BREEZY TO GUSTY NE WINDS OVER THE USUAL WIND-PRONE AREAS OF
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES
INCLUDING THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE IN AND
AROUND THE SANTA SUSANNA MTNS WHERE LOCAL GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH WERE NOTED. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SEABREEZES DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS RELAX. [DISC]

Temps today with the offshore flow and upper level ridging will be several degrees above normal for many areas despite the high clouds. The warmest inland coast and valleys should reach the 70s, while the deserts and SLO [San Luis Obispo CA]/Santa Barbara County interior valleys remain cool in the lower to mid 60s. ∨

TEMPS TODAY WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS DESPITE THE HIGH
CLOUDS. THE WARMEST INLAND COAST AND VLYS SHOULD REACH THE 70S,
WHILE THE DESERTS AND SLO/SBA COUNTY INTERIOR VLYS REMAIN COOL IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S. [DISC]

from previous discussion ∨

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** [DISC]

Very benign weather on tap for the short term (and the long term as well). A weak ridge will sit atop Southern California today. It will flatten out on Saturday and then be replaced by a weak high height trough. At the surface offshore flow will continue especially in the mornings and especially from the north. ∨

VERY BENIGN WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM (AND THE LONG TERM
AS WELL). A WEAK RIDGE WILL SIT ATOP SRN CA TODAY. IT WILL FLATTEN
OUT ON SATURDAY AND THEN BE REPLACED BY A WEAK HIGH HGT TROF. AT
THE SFC OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ESP IN THE MORNINGS AND ESP
FROM THE NORTH. [DISC]

It will be a mostly cloudy day today and Saturday as plenty of mid and high level clouds stream through the ridge after being spun off a sub tropical moisture stream. Skies will clear Sunday as the cloud mass pushes down and away from the area. ∨

IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TODAY AND SATURDAY AS PLENTY OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM THROUGH THE RIDGE AFTER BEING
SPUN OFF A SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY
AS THE CLOUD MASS PUSHES DOWN AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. [DISC]

The offshore push will allow for some ridgetop and canyon winds each night through morning. There will be some local gusts in the 35–45 mph range across the ridgetops but for the most part the winds will be between 15–25 mph. ∨

THE OFFSHORE PUSH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RIDGETOP AND CANYON WINDS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH. [DISC]

Despite the cloud cover the rising heights and offshore flow will bring 2–4° of warming to most of the area today and 1–3° of additional warming on Saturday. A few coastal areas may buck this trend and cool a degree or two due to subtle changes in the seabreeze. Saturday's highs will mostly be in the 70s and lower 80s across the CSTS/valleys or 4–8 locally 10° above normal. Max temps will cool 2–4° across the CSTS/valleys on Sunday as the offshore flow weakens. ∨

DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER THE RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING TO MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND 1 TO
3 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING ON SATURDAY. A FEW COASTAL AREAS
MAY BUCK THIS TREND AND COOL A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO SUBTLE CHANGES
IN THE SEABREEZE. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS OR 4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL 2 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS ON
SUNDAY AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. [DISC]

Long term (Monday–Thursday)… 29/3:05am. ∨

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...29/305 AM. [DISC]

The EC [European Center for Meteorology (or East Central)] and GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] as well as their respective ensemble means are in good agreement for the extend period. The period of benign weather is expected to continue well into next week. ∨

THE EC AND GFS AS WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE XTND PERIOD. THE PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

A high amplitude long wave pattern develop across the entire CONUS [Continental US] with a significant ridge over the the western third of nation. A high height upper low will develop under the ridge and spin harmlessly over Southern California for the duration of the period. ∨

A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS
WITH A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OVER THE THE WESTERN THIRD OF NATION. A
HIGH HGT UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE AND SPIN
HARMLESSLY OVER SRN CA FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. [DISC]

The offshore flow will continue through the period although it will not be strong enough to generate advisory level winds. It may not be strong enough to prevent some morning low clouds across southern LA County or western Santa Barbara County. ∨

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT
WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. IT MAY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN LA COUNTY OR WESTERN SBA COUNTY. [DISC]

Max temps will only vary by a couple of degrees in either direction each day as heights and surface pressure gradients change little through the period. ∨

MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY VARY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN EITHER
DIRECTION EACH DAY AS HGTS AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. [DISC]

Aviation. 29/1853Z [10:53am PST]. ∨

.AVIATION...29/1853Z. [AVIA]

At 18Z [10am PST] at KLAX [Los Angeles CA], there was no marine layer nor inversion. ∨

AT 18Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION. [AVI2]

Moderate to high confidence in KCMA [Camarillo CA], KOXR [Oxnard CA], KSMO [Santa Monica CA], KLAX [Los Angeles CA], and KVNY [Van Nuys CA] due to uncertainty in N-NE winds. There is a 30% chance of NE winds N-NE winds may return to coastal TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts] as early as 04Z [8pm PST] or as late as 13Z [5am PST], with a 30% chance of variable 03 kt [3 mph] at all the aforementioned sites except KVNY [Van Nuys CA] through the night. Some light up and down drafts and low-level wind shear will be possible through 18Z [10am PST] Sat. ∨

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KCMA, KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, AND KVNY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN N-NE WINDS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF NE
WINDS N-NE WINDS MAY RETURN TO COASTAL TAFS AS EARLY AS 04Z OR AS
LATE AS 13Z, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF VRB03KT AT ALL THE
AFOREMENTIONED SITES EXCEPT KVNY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT
UDDF AND LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z SAT. [AVI2]

High confidence in all other TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. There is a 10% chance of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] visibilities at KPRB [Paso Robles CA] 09Z [1am PST]-16Z [8am PST]. ∨

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER TAFS. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KPRB 09Z-16Z. [AVI2]

KLAX [Los Angeles CA]… moderate to high confidence in TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast]. N-NE winds could return as early as 04Z [8pm PST] or as late as 13Z [5am PST], with a a 30% chance of variable 03 kt [3 mph] winds instead 03Z [7pm PST]-21Z [1pm PST]. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 8–10 kt [9–12 mph] 04Z [8pm PST]-17Z [9am PST] Sat. ∨

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. N-NE WINDS COULD RETURN
AS EARLY AS 04Z OR AS LATE AS 13Z, WITH A A 30% CHANCE OF VRB03KT
WINDS INSTEAD 03Z-21Z. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND
COMPONENT OF 8-10 KT 04Z-17Z SAT. [AVI2]

KBUR [Burbank CA]… high confidence in TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast]. There is a 20% chance of N winds up to 8 kt [9 mph] 12Z [4am PST]-187Z [5:87pm PST] Sat. ∨

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF N WINDS
UP TO 8 KT 12Z-187Z SAT. [AVI2]

Marine. 29/8:54am. ∨

.MARINE...29/854 AM. [AVIA]

For the outer waters, high confidence that winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Tuesday night. ∨

FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THRU TUE NIGHT. [AVI2]

For the inner waters, localized Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts are expected nearshore from Oxnard to north of Santa Monica, but decreasing to just below advisory levels out to anacapa island this morning. There is a a 40–50% chance of wind gusts increasing to 25 kt [29 mph] again for the same areas this evening into Saturday morning, but not widespread enough to warrant an advisory. Otherwise, Small Craft Advisory conditions are not expected through Tuesday night. ∨

FOR THE INNER WATERS, LOCALIZED SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
NEARSHORE FROM OXNARD TO NORTH OF SANTA MONICA, BUT DECREASING
TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OUT TO ANACAPA ISLAND THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A A 40-50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KT AGAIN
FOR THE SAME AREAS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THRU TUE NIGHT. [AVI2]

LOX [Los Angeles/Oxnard CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

California: none.
Pacific Ocean: none. ∨

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE. [WARN]

Public: Rorke/Sirard; Aviation: Lund; Marine: DB/Lund; Synopsis: Sirard ∨

PUBLIC...RORKE/SIRARD
AVIATION...LUND
MARINE...DB/LUND
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD [CRED]

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES [LINK]

EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX [LINK]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KLOX [Los Angeles/Oxna CA] 291855 AFDLOX ∨ FXUS66 KLOX 291855 AFDLOX [HEAD] Updated National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 10:55am PST Fri Nov 29 2024 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 1055 AM PST FRI NOV 29 2024 [HEAD] Synopsis. 29/2:22am. ∨ .SYNOPSIS...29/222 AM. [DISC] Dry weather with varying amounts of high clouds is expected through at least next Thursday. There will locally breezy canyon winds during the night and morning hours. Temperatures will trend upwards and reach warmer than normal by the weekend. ∨ DRY WEATHER WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. THERE WILL LOCALLY BREEZY CANYON WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS AND REACH WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. [DISC] Short term (today–Sun)… 29/8:59am. ∨ .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...29/859 AM. [DISC] update ∨ *UPDATE* [DISC] Upper level ridging will move into Southern California through this afternoon. Extensive high clouds were moving through the ridge and into the area from the E Pacific this morning. Varying amounts of high clouds are expected to persist through the afternoon which will result in mostly cloudy skies across the region. ∨ UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO SRN CA THRU THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE HI CLOUDS WERE MOVING THRU THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA FROM THE E PAC THIS MORNING. VARYING AMOUNTS OF HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. [DISC] Good offshore pressure gradients to the E and N this morning (-5.4 mb LAX [Los Angeles CA]-DAG [Barstow/Daggett CA] and –3.5 mb LAX [Los Angeles CA]-BFL [Bakersfield CA] at 16Z [8am PST]) were contributing to breezy to gusty NE winds over the usual wind-prone areas of VTU [Ventura CA]/LA Counties as well as portions of SLO [San Luis Obispo CA]/Santa Barbara Counties including the Santa Lucia Range. The strongest winds were in and around the Santa Susanna Mountains where local gusts between 40 and 50 mph were noted. The offshore winds will gradually diminish through this afternoon, with some seabreezes developing near the coast by mid afternoon if not sooner as offshore gradients relax. ∨ GOOD OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO THE E AND N THIS MORNING (-5.4 MB LAX-DAG AND -3.5 MB LAX-BFL AT 16Z) WERE CONTRIBUTING TO BREEZY TO GUSTY NE WINDS OVER THE USUAL WIND-PRONE AREAS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE IN AND AROUND THE SANTA SUSANNA MTNS WHERE LOCAL GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WERE NOTED. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SEABREEZES DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS RELAX. [DISC] Temps today with the offshore flow and upper level ridging will be several degrees above normal for many areas despite the high clouds. The warmest inland coast and valleys should reach the 70s, while the deserts and SLO [San Luis Obispo CA]/Santa Barbara County interior valleys remain cool in the lower to mid 60s. ∨ TEMPS TODAY WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS. THE WARMEST INLAND COAST AND VLYS SHOULD REACH THE 70S, WHILE THE DESERTS AND SLO/SBA COUNTY INTERIOR VLYS REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. [DISC] from previous discussion ∨ *FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION* [DISC] Very benign weather on tap for the short term (and the long term as well). A weak ridge will sit atop Southern California today. It will flatten out on Saturday and then be replaced by a weak high height trough. At the surface offshore flow will continue especially in the mornings and especially from the north. ∨ VERY BENIGN WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM (AND THE LONG TERM AS WELL). A WEAK RIDGE WILL SIT ATOP SRN CA TODAY. IT WILL FLATTEN OUT ON SATURDAY AND THEN BE REPLACED BY A WEAK HIGH HGT TROF. AT THE SFC OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ESP IN THE MORNINGS AND ESP FROM THE NORTH. [DISC] It will be a mostly cloudy day today and Saturday as plenty of mid and high level clouds stream through the ridge after being spun off a sub tropical moisture stream. Skies will clear Sunday as the cloud mass pushes down and away from the area. ∨ IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TODAY AND SATURDAY AS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM THROUGH THE RIDGE AFTER BEING SPUN OFF A SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM. SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY AS THE CLOUD MASS PUSHES DOWN AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. [DISC] The offshore push will allow for some ridgetop and canyon winds each night through morning. There will be some local gusts in the 35–45 mph range across the ridgetops but for the most part the winds will be between 15–25 mph. ∨ THE OFFSHORE PUSH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RIDGETOP AND CANYON WINDS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH. [DISC] Despite the cloud cover the rising heights and offshore flow will bring 2–4° of warming to most of the area today and 1–3° of additional warming on Saturday. A few coastal areas may buck this trend and cool a degree or two due to subtle changes in the seabreeze. Saturday's highs will mostly be in the 70s and lower 80s across the CSTS/valleys or 4–8 locally 10° above normal. Max temps will cool 2–4° across the CSTS/valleys on Sunday as the offshore flow weakens. ∨ DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER THE RISING HGTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF WARMING TO MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND 1 TO 3 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING ON SATURDAY. A FEW COASTAL AREAS MAY BUCK THIS TREND AND COOL A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE SEABREEZE. SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS OR 4 TO 8 LOCALLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL 2 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE CSTS/VLYS ON SUNDAY AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. [DISC] Long term (Monday–Thursday)… 29/3:05am. ∨ .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...29/305 AM. [DISC] The EC [European Center for Meteorology (or East Central)] and GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] as well as their respective ensemble means are in good agreement for the extend period. The period of benign weather is expected to continue well into next week. ∨ THE EC AND GFS AS WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE XTND PERIOD. THE PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. [DISC] A high amplitude long wave pattern develop across the entire CONUS [Continental US] with a significant ridge over the the western third of nation. A high height upper low will develop under the ridge and spin harmlessly over Southern California for the duration of the period. ∨ A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OVER THE THE WESTERN THIRD OF NATION. A HIGH HGT UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE AND SPIN HARMLESSLY OVER SRN CA FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. [DISC] The offshore flow will continue through the period although it will not be strong enough to generate advisory level winds. It may not be strong enough to prevent some morning low clouds across southern LA County or western Santa Barbara County. ∨ THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. IT MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA COUNTY OR WESTERN SBA COUNTY. [DISC] Max temps will only vary by a couple of degrees in either direction each day as heights and surface pressure gradients change little through the period. ∨ MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY VARY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN EITHER DIRECTION EACH DAY AS HGTS AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. [DISC] Aviation. 29/1853Z [10:53am PST]. ∨ .AVIATION...29/1853Z. [AVIA] At 18Z [10am PST] at KLAX [Los Angeles CA], there was no marine layer nor inversion. ∨ AT 18Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION. [AVI2] Moderate to high confidence in KCMA [Camarillo CA], KOXR [Oxnard CA], KSMO [Santa Monica CA], KLAX [Los Angeles CA], and KVNY [Van Nuys CA] due to uncertainty in N-NE winds. There is a 30% chance of NE winds N-NE winds may return to coastal TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts] as early as 04Z [8pm PST] or as late as 13Z [5am PST], with a 30% chance of variable 03 kt [3 mph] at all the aforementioned sites except KVNY [Van Nuys CA] through the night. Some light up and down drafts and low-level wind shear will be possible through 18Z [10am PST] Sat. ∨ MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN KCMA, KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, AND KVNY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN N-NE WINDS. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF NE WINDS N-NE WINDS MAY RETURN TO COASTAL TAFS AS EARLY AS 04Z OR AS LATE AS 13Z, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF VRB03KT AT ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES EXCEPT KVNY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT UDDF AND LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z SAT. [AVI2] High confidence in all other TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. There is a 10% chance of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] visibilities at KPRB [Paso Robles CA] 09Z [1am PST]-16Z [8am PST]. ∨ HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER TAFS. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPRB 09Z-16Z. [AVI2] KLAX [Los Angeles CA]… moderate to high confidence in TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast]. N-NE winds could return as early as 04Z [8pm PST] or as late as 13Z [5am PST], with a a 30% chance of variable 03 kt [3 mph] winds instead 03Z [7pm PST]-21Z [1pm PST]. There is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 8–10 kt [9–12 mph] 04Z [8pm PST]-17Z [9am PST] Sat. ∨ KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. N-NE WINDS COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS 04Z OR AS LATE AS 13Z, WITH A A 30% CHANCE OF VRB03KT WINDS INSTEAD 03Z-21Z. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF AN EAST WIND COMPONENT OF 8-10 KT 04Z-17Z SAT. [AVI2] KBUR [Burbank CA]… high confidence in TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast]. There is a 20% chance of N winds up to 8 kt [9 mph] 12Z [4am PST]-187Z [5:87pm PST] Sat. ∨ KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF N WINDS UP TO 8 KT 12Z-187Z SAT. [AVI2] Marine. 29/8:54am. ∨ .MARINE...29/854 AM. [AVIA] For the outer waters, high confidence that winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Tuesday night. ∨ FOR THE OUTER WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS THRU TUE NIGHT. [AVI2] For the inner waters, localized Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts are expected nearshore from Oxnard to north of Santa Monica, but decreasing to just below advisory levels out to anacapa island this morning. There is a a 40–50% chance of wind gusts increasing to 25 kt [29 mph] again for the same areas this evening into Saturday morning, but not widespread enough to warrant an advisory. Otherwise, Small Craft Advisory conditions are not expected through Tuesday night. ∨ FOR THE INNER WATERS, LOCALIZED SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED NEARSHORE FROM OXNARD TO NORTH OF SANTA MONICA, BUT DECREASING TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OUT TO ANACAPA ISLAND THIS MORNING. THERE IS A A 40-50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KT AGAIN FOR THE SAME AREAS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THRU TUE NIGHT. [AVI2] LOX [Los Angeles/Oxnard CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories California: none. Pacific Ocean: none. ∨ .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. [WARN] Public: Rorke/Sirard; Aviation: Lund; Marine: DB/Lund; Synopsis: Sirard ∨ PUBLIC...RORKE/SIRARD AVIATION...LUND MARINE...DB/LUND SYNOPSIS...SIRARD [CRED] WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES [LINK] EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT: HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX [LINK]	Point Forecast Los Angeles CA 29 Nov 11:40am PST Today Partly sunny, with a high near 75°. East wind around 5 mph becoming WSW in the afternoon. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 54°. WSW wind around 5 mph becoming NNE in the evening. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 76°. ESE wind around 5 mph becoming WSW in the morning. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54°. West wind around 5 mph becoming ENE in the evening. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74°. Calm wind. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74°. Monday Night Patchy fog after 10pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°. Tuesday Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 72°. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51°. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 73°. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51°. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 74°. Today Partly sunny, with a high near 75. East wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming north northeast in the evening. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 76. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the morning. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. West wind around 5 mph becoming east northeast in the evening. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Monday Night Patchy fog after 10pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Tuesday Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 72. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 73. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 74.
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