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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 092008 AFDSTO ∨

FXUS66 KSTO 092008
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 1:08pm PDT Thu Apr 9 2026 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
108 PM PDT THU APR 9 2026 [HEAD]

FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON WEATHER AND EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, PLEASE VISIT WEATHER.GOV/STO/BRIEFING. [LINK]

Key Messages. ∨

.KEY MESSAGES... [DISC]

- cooler temperatures and active weather today through the weekend with rain, strong to severe thunderstorms, gusty winds, and significant mountain snow ∨

 - COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RAIN, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS,
AND SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW [DISC]

- Winter Storm Warning in effect for the Sierra and southern Cascades Friday evening through Sunday evening ∨

 - WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN
CASCADES FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING [DISC]

Discussion. ∨

.DISCUSSION... [DISC]

Today through the weekend. Current radar and satellite imagery show showers and thunderstorms starting to develop across far Northern California, including the higher terrain of the Coast Range, Shasta County and southern Cascades. A pattern change is bringing cooler and wetter weather to the region today through the weekend. Temperatures are currently trending approximately 5–8° cooler than this time yesterday. Forecast highs will be in the 50s to 60s in the mountains and 60s to around 80 in the valley and foothills today, continuing to cool with highs in the 30s to 60s by the weekend. ∨

...TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COAST RANGE, SHASTA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
CASCADES. A PATTERN CHANGE IS BRINGING COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER
TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY TRENDING APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND 60S TO AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS TODAY,
CONTINUING TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 60S BY THE WEEKEND. [DISC]

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the area through the weekend as well. Latest forecast precipitation amounts have trended slightly higher than the previous forecast. Slick roads and minor travel delays can be expected from rain. The latest probability of thunder from the national blend of models indicated a 45–65% chance for today and Friday for thunderstorms across basically our entire forecast area. High resolution guidance depicts sufficient CAPE [Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. Related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.] and shear values that could lead to severe hail (1.00+ inch), and also weak tornadoes or funnel clouds. These impacts will be in addition to the threat for brief heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning. Thunderstorm chances will also linger into Saturday and Sunday. When thunder roars, go indoors! ∨

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WELL. LATEST FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SLICK ROADS
AND MINOR TRAVEL DELAYS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM RAIN. THE LATEST
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATED
A 45-65% CHANCE FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
BASICALLY OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
DEPICTS SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES THAT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE
HAIL (1.00+ INCH), AND ALSO WEAK TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS.
THESE IMPACTS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO
LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! [DISC]

The snow forecast has also trended slightly higher since the previous forecast. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning from Friday evening through Sunday evening for elevations above 4500 feet. Snow levels will initially be at pass level or above on Friday, and will lower below the passes over the weekend. Heaviest snow rates and lowest snow levels are expected to be from Saturday afternoon through Sunday where major impacts to mountain travel are anticipated. Mountain travel is discouraged this weekend while the warning is in effect. Gusty southerly winds are also forecast, with the strongest on Saturday. The north/central Sacramento Valley, northeast foothills and Sierra Crest will see the strongest winds. We will continue to Montior the trends in the forecast to see if a product will be needed for the winds. ∨

THE SNOW FORECAST HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE AT
PASS LEVEL OR ABOVE ON FRIDAY, AND WILL LOWER BELOW THE PASSES
OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAVIEST SNOW RATES AND LOWEST SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE MAJOR
IMPACTS TO MOUNTAIN TRAVEL ARE ANTICIPATED. MOUNTAIN TRAVEL IS
DISCOURAGED THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST, WITH THE STRONGEST ON SATURDAY.
THE NORTH/CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY, NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS AND
SIERRA CREST WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONTIOR THE TRENDS IN THE FORECAST TO SEE IF A PRODUCT WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE WINDS. [DISC]

Early next week. There may be some lingering showers mainly in the mountains on Monday. Otherwise drier and warmer weather is projected to return early to mid next week. Forecast highs will generally be in the 60s to 70s in the valley and foothills. ∨

...EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS PROJECTED TO RETURN
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
60S TO 70S IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS. [DISC]

Aviation. Primarily VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions over the next 24 hours, except within thunderstorms through 09Z [2am PDT] Friday, and again between 18Z [11am PDT] Friday and 09Z [2am PDT] Saturday, which will bring potential for brief MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions in any heavy rainfall. Surface winds generally at or below 12 kt [14 mph] in the valley through 12Z [5am PDT] Saturday, before southerly wind speeds begin to increase across interior Northern California and continue through late Saturday; gusts up to 35–45 mph in the valley and up to 50 mph in the mountains at times. Gusty and erratic winds will occur near any thunderstorms as well. ∨

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY, AND AGAIN BETWEEN 18Z FRIDAY AND
09Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 12 KT IN THE VALLEY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY, BEFORE SOUTHERLY
WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY; GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH IN THE VALLEY AND UP
TO 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
OCCUR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. [AVIA]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Winter Storm Warning from 5pm Friday to 11pm PDT Sunday for west slope northern Sierra Nevada-western Plumas County/Lassen Park. ∨

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN
PARK. [WARN]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 092008 AFDSTO ∨ FXUS66 KSTO 092008 AFDSTO [HEAD] National Weather Service Sacramento California 1:08pm PDT Thu Apr 9 2026 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 108 PM PDT THU APR 9 2026 [HEAD] FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON WEATHER AND EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, PLEASE VISIT WEATHER.GOV/STO/BRIEFING. [LINK] Key Messages. ∨ .KEY MESSAGES... [DISC] - cooler temperatures and active weather today through the weekend with rain, strong to severe thunderstorms, gusty winds, and significant mountain snow ∨ - COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW [DISC] - Winter Storm Warning in effect for the Sierra and southern Cascades Friday evening through Sunday evening ∨ - WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN CASCADES FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING [DISC] Discussion. ∨ .DISCUSSION... [DISC] Today through the weekend. Current radar and satellite imagery show showers and thunderstorms starting to develop across far Northern California, including the higher terrain of the Coast Range, Shasta County and southern Cascades. A pattern change is bringing cooler and wetter weather to the region today through the weekend. Temperatures are currently trending approximately 5–8° cooler than this time yesterday. Forecast highs will be in the 50s to 60s in the mountains and 60s to around 80 in the valley and foothills today, continuing to cool with highs in the 30s to 60s by the weekend. ∨ ...TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COAST RANGE, SHASTA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN CASCADES. A PATTERN CHANGE IS BRINGING COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY TRENDING APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 60S TO AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS TODAY, CONTINUING TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 60S BY THE WEEKEND. [DISC] Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the area through the weekend as well. Latest forecast precipitation amounts have trended slightly higher than the previous forecast. Slick roads and minor travel delays can be expected from rain. The latest probability of thunder from the national blend of models indicated a 45–65% chance for today and Friday for thunderstorms across basically our entire forecast area. High resolution guidance depicts sufficient CAPE [Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. Related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.] and shear values that could lead to severe hail (1.00+ inch), and also weak tornadoes or funnel clouds. These impacts will be in addition to the threat for brief heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning. Thunderstorm chances will also linger into Saturday and Sunday. When thunder roars, go indoors! ∨ SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. LATEST FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SLICK ROADS AND MINOR TRAVEL DELAYS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM RAIN. THE LATEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATED A 45-65% CHANCE FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BASICALLY OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES THAT COULD LEAD TO SEVERE HAIL (1.00+ INCH), AND ALSO WEAK TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS. THESE IMPACTS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! [DISC] The snow forecast has also trended slightly higher since the previous forecast. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning from Friday evening through Sunday evening for elevations above 4500 feet. Snow levels will initially be at pass level or above on Friday, and will lower below the passes over the weekend. Heaviest snow rates and lowest snow levels are expected to be from Saturday afternoon through Sunday where major impacts to mountain travel are anticipated. Mountain travel is discouraged this weekend while the warning is in effect. Gusty southerly winds are also forecast, with the strongest on Saturday. The north/central Sacramento Valley, northeast foothills and Sierra Crest will see the strongest winds. We will continue to Montior the trends in the forecast to see if a product will be needed for the winds. ∨ THE SNOW FORECAST HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE AT PASS LEVEL OR ABOVE ON FRIDAY, AND WILL LOWER BELOW THE PASSES OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAVIEST SNOW RATES AND LOWEST SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE MAJOR IMPACTS TO MOUNTAIN TRAVEL ARE ANTICIPATED. MOUNTAIN TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST, WITH THE STRONGEST ON SATURDAY. THE NORTH/CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY, NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA CREST WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONTIOR THE TRENDS IN THE FORECAST TO SEE IF A PRODUCT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS. [DISC] Early next week. There may be some lingering showers mainly in the mountains on Monday. Otherwise drier and warmer weather is projected to return early to mid next week. Forecast highs will generally be in the 60s to 70s in the valley and foothills. ∨ ...EARLY NEXT WEEK... THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS PROJECTED TO RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO 70S IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS. [DISC] Aviation. Primarily VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions over the next 24 hours, except within thunderstorms through 09Z [2am PDT] Friday, and again between 18Z [11am PDT] Friday and 09Z [2am PDT] Saturday, which will bring potential for brief MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions in any heavy rainfall. Surface winds generally at or below 12 kt [14 mph] in the valley through 12Z [5am PDT] Saturday, before southerly wind speeds begin to increase across interior Northern California and continue through late Saturday; gusts up to 35–45 mph in the valley and up to 50 mph in the mountains at times. Gusty and erratic winds will occur near any thunderstorms as well. ∨ .AVIATION... PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY, AND AGAIN BETWEEN 18Z FRIDAY AND 09Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 12 KT IN THE VALLEY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY, BEFORE SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY; GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH IN THE VALLEY AND UP TO 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. [AVIA] STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories Winter Storm Warning from 5pm Friday to 11pm PDT Sunday for west slope northern Sierra Nevada-western Plumas County/Lassen Park. ∨ .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK. [WARN]	Point Forecast Auburn CA 10 Apr 09:15am PDT Today Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 2pm and 3pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. High near 60°. South wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 1am. Low around 49°. SSE wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Rain before 11am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. High near 58°. SSE wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then rain after 11pm. Low around 43°. SE wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Sunday Rain before 11am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. High near 51°. SSE wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Night Rain likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42°. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 58°. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42°. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 64°. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44°. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 67°. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49°. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 70°. Today Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 2pm and 3pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. High near 60. South wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 1am. Low around 49. South southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Rain before 11am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. High near 58. South southeast wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then rain after 11pm. Low around 43. Southeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Sunday Rain before 11am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. High near 51. South southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Night Rain likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 64. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 67. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
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