Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 201210 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 201210 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco California 5:10am PDT Sun Apr 20 2025 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 510 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2025 [HEAD] New aviation, marine. ∨ ...NEW AVIATION, MARINE... [DISC] Synopsis. Issued at 12:51am PDT Sun April 20 2025 ∨ .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1251 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2025 [DISC] A slight warming trend will continue through Monday before cool and cloudy weather returns mid to late week. ∨ A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK. [DISC] Short term. (today and tonight) issued at 12:51am PDT Sun April 20 2025 ∨ .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 1251 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2025 [DISC] The Fort Ord profiler [instrument designed to measure horizontal winds directly above its location, and thus measure the vertical wind profile. Profilers operate on the same principles as Doppler radar.] is measuring a relatively deep marine layer around 2,000 feet. This is keeping widespread stratus across the lower elevations of the Bay Area and the Central Coast. High dew points and light winds will likely bring areas of fog across the region later this morning, especially in the North Bay valleys. We are waiting to see the visibility start dropping, but don't be surprised if a Dense Fog Advisory is issued in the next few hours. The skies will clear in the afternoon as the stratus mixes out and marine layer compresses. Temperatures will reach the mid 70s in the warmer inland areas, with upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. ∨ THE FT. ORD PROFILER IS MEASURING A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER AROUND 2,000 FEET. THIS IS KEEPING WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE BAY AREA AND THE CENTRAL COAST. HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. WE ARE WAITING TO SEE THE VISIBILITY START DROPPING, BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS MIXES OUT AND MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 70S IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. [DISC] Long term. (Monday through Saturday) issued at 12:51am PDT Sun April 20 2025 ∨ .LONG TERM... (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 1251 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2025 [DISC] Zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] will persist from Monday through Tuesday, with quiet weather and warmer than normal temperatures expected. High surface pressure will keep the marine layer compressed to around 500 feet as 850 mb temps rise to around 14°C. This will allow most areas away from the immediate coast to reach 5–10° above normal. Many of the warmer areas will have minor heatrisk. This level is hazardous only to those extremely sensitive to heat such as the elderly and those living outside. Decent cooling at night will allow for some relief if you are able to open a window. A short wave trough will approach the coast early Wednesday, followed by a much deeper trough on Friday. This pattern change will bring cooler, cloudier conditions. There is still a chance for rain late week, but the probability has decreased quite a bit in the latest update. Why the change? The trough still has broad support across the guidance envelope, however the moisture tap looks worse. The GEFS [NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System] mean probability of IVT [GFS Integrated Water Vapor Transport ]>150 has decreased from 40% to 20% from the 12Z [5am PDT] to 00Z [5pm PDT] run. There's still a 0% chance of IVT [GFS Integrated Water Vapor Transport ] exceeding 250 in both the GEFS [NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System] and ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] EPS [Ensemble Prediction System] ensembles. In other words, the chance for light rain Friday–Saturday is decreasing, and there continues to be no real chance for anything more substantial. ∨ ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH QUIET WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSED TO AROUND 500 FEET AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 14C. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO REACH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MANY OF THE WARMER AREAS WILL HAVE MINOR HEATRISK. THIS LEVEL IS HAZARDOUS ONLY TO THOSE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT SUCH AS THE ELDERLY AND THOSE LIVING OUTSIDE. DECENT COOLING AT NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RELIEF IF YOU ARE ABLE TO OPEN A WINDOW. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING COOLER, CLOUDIER CONDITIONS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE WEEK, BUT THE PROBABILITY HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE LATEST UPDATE. WHY THE CHANGE? THE TROUGH STILL HAS BROAD SUPPORT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE TAP LOOKS WORSE. THE GEFS MEAN PROBABILITY OF IVT>150 HAS DECREASED FROM 40% TO 20% FROM THE 12Z TO 00Z RUN. THERE`S STILL A 0% CHANCE OF IVT EXCEEDING 250 IN BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ENSEMBLES. IN OTHER WORDS, THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FRI-SAT IS DECREASING, AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO REAL CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL. [DISC] Aviation. (12Z [5am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 5:10am PDT Sun April 20 2025 ∨ .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 510 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2025 [AVIA] Widespread MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings are affecting the region with LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings affecting the North Bay terminals as well as MRY [Monterey CA] and Livermore. Pockets of fog are also affecting some of the valleys, and look to build around STS [Santa Rosa CA]. Cloud cover begins to erode in the late morning, but remains on the coast, with haf going scattered into the mid afternoon. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning, and increase into the afternoon before reducing again over the evening. IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings build along the coast and around the Monterey Bay in the evening. Haf, SNS [Salinas CA], and MRY [Monterey CA] will see IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings turn LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] with pockets of fog into the later night while the North Bay terminals begin to see fog and low ceilings form into early Monday. ∨ WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE REGION WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS AFFECTING THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS AS WELL AS MRY AND LVK. POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO AFFECTING SOME OF THE VALLEYS, AND LOOK TO BUILD AROUND STS. CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO ERODE IN THE LATE MORNING, BUT REMAINS ON THE COAST, WITH HAF GOING SCATTERED INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE MORNING, AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE REDUCING AGAIN OVER THE EVENING. IFR CIGS BUILD ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY IN THE EVENING. HAF, SNS, AND MRY WILL SEE IFR CIGS TURN LIFR WITH POCKETS OF FOG INTO THE LATER NIGHT WHILE THE NORTH BAY TERMINALS BEGIN TO SEE FOG AND LOW CIGS FORM INTO EARLY MONDAY. [AVI2] Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… light winds and MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings linger into the late morning. Skies clear before moderate west winds build for the afternoon. These winds will reduce overnight but remain westerly. Low clouds look to move through portions of the SF Bay in the early morning on Monday, but don't look to fill over SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ VICINITY OF SFO...LIGHT WINDS AND MVFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING. SKIES CLEAR BEFORE MODERATE WEST WINDS BUILD FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL REDUCE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SF BAY IN THE EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY, BUT DON`T LOOK TO FILL OVER SFO. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings and light winds last into the late morning before ceilings retreat back into the Monterey Bay and moderate northwest winds build. Winds reduce into the early night as IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings move inland and fill over the terminals. Pockets of fog look to form in the later into the night as ceilings fall to LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] levels. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING BEFORE CIGS RETREAT BACK INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AND MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BUILD. WINDS REDUCE INTO THE EARLY NIGHT AS IFR CIGS MOVE INLAND AND FILL OVER THE TERMINALS. POCKETS OF FOG LOOK TO FORM IN THE LATER INTO THE NIGHT AS CIGS FALL TO LIFR LEVELS. [AVI2] Marine. (today through Friday) issued at 5:10am PDT Sun April 20 2025 ∨ .MARINE... (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 510 AM PDT SUN APR 20 2025 [AVIA] Breezy to gusty north/northwest winds are building in the norther waters along with building north swell. Winds look to increase and spread across the outer waters into the work week. The gusty northerly winds look to become more widespread into the mid week. ∨ BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BUILDING IN THE NORTHER WATERS ALONG WITH BUILDING NORTH SWELL. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS INTO THE WORK WEEK. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE MID WEEK. [AVI2] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM. [WARN]
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM. [WRN2]
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM. [WRN2]
SHORT TERM...FLYNN LONG TERM....FLYNN AVIATION...MURDOCK MARINE...MURDOCK [WRN2] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, x, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA X.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC] |
Point Forecast Montara CA 20 Apr 05:55am PDT Today Partly sunny, with a high near 58°. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 49°. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south after midnight. Monday Sunny, with a high near 62°. Light and variable wind becoming NW 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50°. WNW wind 5 to 11 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°. Light WNW wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58°. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56°. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57°. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49°. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57°. Today Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south after midnight. Monday Sunny, with a high near 62. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50. West northwest wind 5 to 11 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Light west northwest wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. |
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