Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 190349 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 190349 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 8:49pm PDT Thu Aug 18 2022 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 849 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2022 [HEAD] Synopsis. Warm and dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of the week across the interior while cooler conditions persist near the coast. Temperatures then cool to near seasonal averages region-wide by Sunday and Monday. ∨ .SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES REGION-WIDE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. [DISC] Discussion. As of 08:47pm PDT Thursday. ∨ .DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:47 PM PDT THURSDAY... [DISC] No changes this evening as the forecast is on track. Please see below for more details. ∨ NO CHANGES THIS EVENING AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. PLEASE SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. [DISC] Previous discussion… as of 02:40pm PDT Thursday. The storm system from yesterday continues to exit to the NE. The upper level low/shortwave trough is currently near the California/Oregon border. In its wake, high pressure is rebuilding over the region. Afternoon satellite looks more "summer-like" for the Bay Area and Central Coast with low clouds along the coast and inland sunshine. There's also enough lingering upper level moisture for a few cumulus clouds over the Diablo and Gabilan ranges. Not expecting any further develop besides some cumulus. Pretty solid temperature spread across the region with micro-climates in full effect. In fact, given the increased insolation today across the interior temperatures are running warmer than yesterday. The hottest interior (far N and East Bay, Monterey/San Benito) locations will top out just over a 100°. That is a stark contrast to the coast, where temps remain in the 60s. ∨ .PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:40 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM FROM YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE NE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE CA/OR BORDER. IN ITS WAKE, HIGH PRESSURE IS REBUILDING OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOKS MORE "SUMMER-LIKE" FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST WITH LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND SUNSHINE. THERE`S ALSO ENOUGH LINGERING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE DIABLO AND GABILAN RANGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY FURTHER DEVELOP BESIDES SOME CUMULUS. PRETTY SOLID TEMPERATURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MICRO-CLIMATES IN FULL EFFECT. IN FACT, GIVEN THE INCREASED INSOLATION TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE HOTTEST INTERIOR (FAR N AND E BAY, MONTEREY/SAN BENITO) LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT JUST OVER A 100 DEGREES. THAT IS A STARK CONTRAST TO THE COAST, WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 60S. [DISC] Minor day to day changes in the overall weather heading into the weekend as high pressure remain over the region. That means night and morning clouds will be common clearing back to the coast each afternoon. Given the higher 500 mb heights overhead the marine layer will be somewhat compressed leading to a chance for some fog each night as well. The coastal clouds will also keep natural altocumulus in place near the coast and bays. Interior locations on the other hand will be hot with temperatures above normal and in the mid 80s to lower 100s. There will be some minor relief at night in the lower elevations with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s, but the higher elevations will remain very mild and in the 70s. It is August so heat risk risk is moderate given the forecast. However, even with moderate heat risk people with outdoor activities should still be mindful and take precautions. ∨ MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THAT MEANS NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON CLEARING BACK TO THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS OVERHEAD THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPRESSED LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG EACH NIGHT AS WELL. THE COASTAL CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP NATURAL AC IN PLACE NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS. INTERIOR LOCATIONS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL BE HOT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 100S. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR RELIEF AT NIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD AND IN THE 70S. IT IS AUGUST SO HEAT RISK RISK IS MODERATE GIVEN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH MODERATE HEAT RISK PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD STILL BE MINDFUL AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS. [DISC] Late this weekend and early next week high pressure will ease as an upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. The weakening high pressure will result in more widespread cooling and closer to seasonal averages. ∨ LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACNW. THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD COOLING AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. [DISC] Looking farther down the road - temperatures rebound the other direction late next week per CPC [Climate Prediction Center] outlook with above normal temperatures returning. ∨ LOOKING FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD - TEMPERATURES REBOUND THE OTHER DIRECTION LATE NEXT WEEK PER CPC OUTLOOK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING. [DISC] Aviation. As of 04:31pm PDT Thursday… for the 00Z [5pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Skies remain widespread VFR [Visual Flight Rules], but a thick bank of stratus sits just out over the ocean, already slowly moving into Monterey Bay terminals. Stratus will slowly advect inland for IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions overnight for area terminals. Due to a marine layer less than 1,000 feet deep, the strongest confidence remains for terminals closest to the ocean and bay shoreline. Monterey terminals will likely reach LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] conditions with patchy fog possible. Clearing is expected on Friday by 17Z [10am PDT]. ∨ .AVIATION...AS OF 04:31 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOR THE 00Z TAFS. SKIES REMAIN WIDESPREAD VFR, BUT A THICK BANK OF STRATUS SITS JUST OUT OVER THE OCEAN, ALREADY SLOWLY MOVING INTO MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS. STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT INLAND FOR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR AREA TERMINALS. DUE TO A MARINE LAYER LESS THAN 1,000 FEET DEEP, THE STRONGEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE OCEAN AND BAY SHORELINE. MONTEREY TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REACH LIFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BY 17Z. [AVIA] Winds are breezier Thursday afternoon than models originally anticipated. Gusts are being reported at KSFO [San Francisco CA] around 30 knots [35 mph]. Winds will stay breezy through the night, but slowly diminish early Friday morning. Winds will stay onshore and increase again Friday afternoon. ∨ WINDS ARE BREEZIER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAN MODELS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. GUSTS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KSFO AROUND 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY ONSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. [AVI2] Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… main impacts in the short term is onshore wind gusts. Models leading up to this afternoon were suggesting winds topping out around 25 knots [29 mph], if that. However, there as already been one observation at 33 knots [38 mph]. Winds will continue to hover around 30 knots [35 mph] through 03Z [8pm PDT], then slowly subside into the night. Conditions are VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Low stratus will once again make its way to the East Bay which can result to few/scattered at KSFO [San Francisco CA], but confidence is not strong enough to put a ceiling at the terminal at this time. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] is forecast on Friday with a return of onshore winds with stronger wind gusts after 22Z [3pm PDT]. ∨ VICINITY OF KSFO...MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ONSHORE WIND GUSTS. MODELS LEADING UP TO THIS AFTERNOON WERE SUGGESTING WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 25 KNOTS, IF THAT. HOWEVER, THERE AS ALREADY BEEN ONE OBSERVATION AT 33 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH 03Z, THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE VFR. LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE EAST BAY WHICH CAN RESULT TO FEW/SCT AT KSFO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUT A CEILING AT THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. VFR IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS AFTER 22Z. [AVI2] KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay… currently VFR [Visual Flight Rules], but the stratus clouds are butting up right against the coastline, itching to move into terminals. Projecting IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings with increasing confidence that it happens before 03Z [8pm PDT]. Once its there, will not leave through the night, only lowering to LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] early Friday morning. Reduced visibility and patchy fog is possible. Clearing is projected around 17Z [10am PDT], returning to VFR [Visual Flight Rules] skies with breezy onshore winds. ∨ MONTEREY BAY...CURRENTLY VFR, BUT THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE BUTTING UP RIGHT AGAINST THE COASTLINE, ITCHING TO MOVE INTO TERMINALS. PROJECTING IFR CIGS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT IT HAPPENS BEFORE 03Z. ONCE ITS THERE, WILL NOT LEAVE THROUGH THE NIGHT, ONLY LOWERING TO LIFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. REDUCED VIS AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. CLEARING IS PROJECTED AROUND 17Z, RETURNING TO VFR SKIES WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS. [AVI2] Marine. As of 08:47pm PDT Thursday… increasing northwest winds through through Friday, particularly over the northern outer waters. This will create steep wind waves and hazardous seas for smaller vessels into the night and through Saturday. A moderate period southerly swell prevails through the waters through the forecast period. ∨ .MARINE...AS OF 08:47 PM PDT THURSDAY...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS WILL CREATE STEEP WIND WAVES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALLER VESSELS INTO THE NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODERATE PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL PREVAILS THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. [AVIA] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM [WARN] Public Forecast: MM/SPM; Aviation: DK; Marine: DK ∨ PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/SPM AVIATION: DK MARINE: DK [CRED] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC] |
Point Forecast Montara CA 18 Aug 09:55pm PDT Tonight Cloudy, with a low around 55°. Calm wind becoming NW 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62°. WNW wind 5 to 7 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54°. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 63°. Light SSW wind becoming south 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°. South wind 9 to 14 mph. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 62°. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58°. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 64°. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57°. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63°. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62°. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 64°. Tonight Cloudy, with a low around 55. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. West northwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Light south southwest wind becoming south 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 9 to 14 mph. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 64. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 64. |
|
This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: |