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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 272115 AFDMTR ∨

FXUS66 KMTR 272115
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 2:15pm PDT Wed Sep 27 2023 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
215 PM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [HEAD]

New synopsis, short term, long term. ∨

...NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... [DISC]

Synopsis. Issued at 1:44pm PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 144 PM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [DISC]

Fair weather continues with temps near normal. Forecast trending wetter for the weekend with a decreasing likelihood for widespread offshore wind. ∨

FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. FORECAST TRENDING
WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A DECREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD
OFFSHORE WIND. [DISC]

Short term. (this evening through Thursday) issued at 1:44pm PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨

.SHORT TERM...
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [DISC]

Current satellite showing clear skies across the region aside from some stratus near the North Bay coast associated with some lingering moisture from the trough in the Pacific Northwest. Another pleasant day in store for Thursday as flow becomes zonal again. Marine layer has returned in a rather elevated and mixed fashion, but most moisture remains limited. Expect the marine inversion to strengthen a bit tonight going into Thursday. ∨

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ASIDE FROM
SOME STRATUS NEAR THE NORTH BAY COAST ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
AGAIN. MARINE LAYER HAS RETURNED IN A RATHER ELEVATED AND MIXED
FASHION, BUT MOST MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. EXPECT THE MARINE
INVERSION TO STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT GOING INTO THURSDAY. [DISC]

Long term. (Thursday night through next Tuesday) issued at 1:44pm PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [DISC]

Beyond midweek, focus shifts to the weekend where it is increasingly likely that may have rain area-wide. The trough that has persisted in the Pacific Northwest for the last few days will dig to the south into California. Guidance still advertises some uncertainty surrounding where exactly west-east the trough axis will set up. However, the latest trend has the trough setting up slightly further west, which would be the wetter of the scenarios for the Bay Area and Central Coast. Rain chances look to increase Friday afternoon in the North Bay, spreading southward by Friday night and covering the entire area through Saturday morning. Keeping POPs [Probability of Precipitation] at 20–30% for now due to the uncertainty in trough positioning. Rain looks to mostly end by Saturday afternoon, but anomalously high moisture may end up lingering a little longer through the period. Considerable model spread exists regarding the exit of the trough to the east. So still need to keep attention on a very brief period of offshore winds for Sunday into Monday as the trough exits, particularly for interior Napa County. ∨

BEYOND MIDWEEK, FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND WHERE IT IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT MAY HAVE RAIN AREA-WIDE. THE TROUGH THAT
HAS PERSISTED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
DIG TO THE SOUTH INTO CA. GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISES SOME
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING WHERE EXACTLY WEST-EAST THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL SET UP. HOWEVER, THE LATEST TREND HAS THE TROUGH SETTING UP
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST, WHICH WOULD BE THE WETTER OF THE SCENARIOS
FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH BAY, SPREADING SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
KEEPING POPS AT 20-30% FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TROUGH
POSITIONING. RAIN LOOKS TO MOSTLY END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE MAY END UP LINGERING A LITTLE
LONGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD EXISTS
REGARDING THE EXIT OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST. SO STILL NEED TO
KEEP ATTENTION ON A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS, PARTICULARLY FOR INTERIOR
NAPA COUNTY. [DISC]

Aviation. (18Z [11am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 11:20am PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [AVIA]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions across the Bay Area expected to continue throughout the afternoon. Ceilings are expected to return overnight for MRY [Monterey CA] and SNS [Salinas CA] but should begin clearing by 17Z [10am PDT] tomorrow. Persistence forecast for the North Bay suggests a possibility of fog and reduced visibility overnight however this is fairly low confidence. Breezy winds are expected throughout the Bay Area during the afternoon but will weaken overnight. ∨

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT FOR MRY AND
SNS BUT SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BY 17Z TOMORROW. PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR THE NORTH BAY SUGGESTS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THIS IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BREEZY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions through the rest of the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Gusts up to 30 kts [35 mph] at SFO [San Francisco CA] and 25 kts [29 mph] at OAK [Oakland CA] are possible during the afternoon. Windy conditions will weaken overnight around 05Z [10pm PDT] for OAK [Oakland CA] and 09Z [2am PDT] for SFO [San Francisco CA] before increasing slightly tomorrow afternoon. Some cloud cover may move in overnight/into the early morning for SFO [San Francisco CA] and OAK [Oakland CA] but guidance suggests moderate confidence that cloud cover will stay few to scattered. ∨

VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AT SFO AND 25KTS AT OAK ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AROUND 05Z FOR OAK
AND 09Z FOR SFO BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME
CLOUD COVER MAY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT/INTO THE EARLY MORNING FOR SFO AND
OAK BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUD COVER WILL
STAY FEW TO SCATTERED. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA] ∨

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions to prevail through the afternoon. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions will return overnight for MRY [Monterey CA] around 07Z [12am PDT] and SNS [Salinas CA] around 13Z [6am PDT] but cloud cover should begin to clear at 17Z [10am PDT] tomorrow. Model guidance was split on the timing of cloud cover return for MRY [Monterey CA] with some models indicating as early as 02Z [7pm PDT] and others closer to 12Z [5am PDT]. Moderate confidence that some scattered clouds will return closer to 04Z [9pm PDT] and become broken later in the period. Afternoon winds will be breezier with SNS [Salinas CA] potentially gusting up to 15 kts [17 mph]. ∨

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT FOR MRY AROUND 07Z
AND SNS AROUND 13Z BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AT 17Z
TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SPLIT ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER
RETURN FOR MRY WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING AS EARLY AS 02Z AND
OTHERS CLOSER TO 12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
WILL RETURN CLOSER TO 04Z AND BECOME BROKEN LATER IN THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER WITH SNS POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO
15KTS. [AVI2]

Marine. (today through Monday) issued at 11:20am PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨

.MARINE...
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [AVIA]

Fresh to strong northwesterly winds continue with winds becoming strong to near gale into this afternoon, with gale-force conditions developing by this evening for much of the outer waters along with favored coastal jet regions. Large northwest swell continues to slowly diminish through the next couple of days, but large wind waves begin to build overnight tonight and persist through the weekend. Both winds and waves will combine to create dangerous conditions for small craft through the remainder of the week. ∨

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
STRONG TO NEAR GALE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GALE-FORCE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS ALONG WITH FAVORED COASTAL JET REGIONS. LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, BUT LARGE WIND WAVES BEGIN TO BUILD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. [AVI2]

Beaches… issued at 2:15am PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨

.BEACHES...
ISSUED AT 215 AM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [DISC]

NW swell continues to move through the coastal waters and will diminish through the day today. Currently, the swell is around 10–11 feet at 14 seconds. The High Surf Advisory was allowed to expire, but was replaced by a beach hazards statement to account for lingering dangerous conditions. Large breaking waves still possible around 12–15 feet. Coastal buoys as of 2am continue to show elevated seas with significant wave heights around 12–14 feet at 14 seconds. ∨

NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CURRENTLY, THE SWELL IS AROUND 10
TO 11 FEET AT 14 SECONDS. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE, BUT WAS REPLACED BY A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR LINGERING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES STILL
POSSIBLE AROUND 12 TO 15 FEET. COASTAL BUOYS AS OF 2 AM CONTINUE
TO SHOW ELEVATED SEAS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 12-14
FEET AT 14 SECONDS. [DISC]

Continue to exercise caution even though the High Surf Advisory has ended, as energy in the ocean can be slow to diminish and large waves may continue to be present afterwards until fully dissipated. ∨

CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS
ENDED, AS ENERGY IN THE OCEAN CAN BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AND LARGE
WAVES MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT AFTERWARDS UNTIL FULLY DISSIPATED. [DISC]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

California: beach hazards statement until 5pm PDT this afternoon for CAZ006–505–509–529–530. ∨

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530. [WARN]

Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory until 9pm PDT this evening for PZZ530. ∨

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ530. [WRN2]

Small Craft Advisory until 3am PDT Thursday for PZZ535–560. ∨

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ535-560. [WRN2]

Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PDT Thursday for PZZ540. ∨

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ540. [WRN2]

Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for PZZ540–560. ∨

     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ540-560. [WRN2]

Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PDT Thursday for PZZ545. ∨

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ545. [WRN2]

Gale Warning until 3am PDT Friday for PZZ565. ∨

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ565. [WRN2]

Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PDT this afternoon for PZZ570. ∨

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ570. [WRN2]

Gale Warning until 3pm PDT Thursday for PZZ570. ∨

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ570. [WRN2]

Small Craft Advisory until 9pm PDT this evening for PZZ575. ∨

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ575. [WRN2]

Gale Warning from 9pm this evening to 3pm PDT Thursday for PZZ575. ∨

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ575. [WRN2]

Short term…behringer long term…behringer aviation…Kennedy marine…cloud-water lightning ∨

SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...CW [WRN2]

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 272115 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 272115 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco California 2:15pm PDT Wed Sep 27 2023 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 215 PM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [HEAD] New synopsis, short term, long term. ∨ ...NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... [DISC] Synopsis. Issued at 1:44pm PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨ .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 144 PM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [DISC] Fair weather continues with temps near normal. Forecast trending wetter for the weekend with a decreasing likelihood for widespread offshore wind. ∨ FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. FORECAST TRENDING WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A DECREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD OFFSHORE WIND. [DISC] Short term. (this evening through Thursday) issued at 1:44pm PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨ .SHORT TERM... (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 144 PM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [DISC] Current satellite showing clear skies across the region aside from some stratus near the North Bay coast associated with some lingering moisture from the trough in the Pacific Northwest. Another pleasant day in store for Thursday as flow becomes zonal again. Marine layer has returned in a rather elevated and mixed fashion, but most moisture remains limited. Expect the marine inversion to strengthen a bit tonight going into Thursday. ∨ CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ASIDE FROM SOME STRATUS NEAR THE NORTH BAY COAST ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AGAIN. MARINE LAYER HAS RETURNED IN A RATHER ELEVATED AND MIXED FASHION, BUT MOST MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. EXPECT THE MARINE INVERSION TO STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT GOING INTO THURSDAY. [DISC] Long term. (Thursday night through next Tuesday) issued at 1:44pm PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨ .LONG TERM... (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 144 PM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [DISC] Beyond midweek, focus shifts to the weekend where it is increasingly likely that may have rain area-wide. The trough that has persisted in the Pacific Northwest for the last few days will dig to the south into California. Guidance still advertises some uncertainty surrounding where exactly west-east the trough axis will set up. However, the latest trend has the trough setting up slightly further west, which would be the wetter of the scenarios for the Bay Area and Central Coast. Rain chances look to increase Friday afternoon in the North Bay, spreading southward by Friday night and covering the entire area through Saturday morning. Keeping POPs [Probability of Precipitation] at 20–30% for now due to the uncertainty in trough positioning. Rain looks to mostly end by Saturday afternoon, but anomalously high moisture may end up lingering a little longer through the period. Considerable model spread exists regarding the exit of the trough to the east. So still need to keep attention on a very brief period of offshore winds for Sunday into Monday as the trough exits, particularly for interior Napa County. ∨ BEYOND MIDWEEK, FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND WHERE IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT MAY HAVE RAIN AREA-WIDE. THE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL DIG TO THE SOUTH INTO CA. GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISES SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING WHERE EXACTLY WEST-EAST THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SET UP. HOWEVER, THE LATEST TREND HAS THE TROUGH SETTING UP SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST, WHICH WOULD BE THE WETTER OF THE SCENARIOS FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH BAY, SPREADING SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. KEEPING POPS AT 20-30% FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TROUGH POSITIONING. RAIN LOOKS TO MOSTLY END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE MAY END UP LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD EXISTS REGARDING THE EXIT OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST. SO STILL NEED TO KEEP ATTENTION ON A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS, PARTICULARLY FOR INTERIOR NAPA COUNTY. [DISC] Aviation. (18Z [11am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 11:20am PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨ .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1120 AM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [AVIA] VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions across the Bay Area expected to continue throughout the afternoon. Ceilings are expected to return overnight for MRY [Monterey CA] and SNS [Salinas CA] but should begin clearing by 17Z [10am PDT] tomorrow. Persistence forecast for the North Bay suggests a possibility of fog and reduced visibility overnight however this is fairly low confidence. Breezy winds are expected throughout the Bay Area during the afternoon but will weaken overnight. ∨ VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT FOR MRY AND SNS BUT SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING BY 17Z TOMORROW. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH BAY SUGGESTS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THIS IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. [AVI2] Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions through the rest of the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Gusts up to 30 kts [35 mph] at SFO [San Francisco CA] and 25 kts [29 mph] at OAK [Oakland CA] are possible during the afternoon. Windy conditions will weaken overnight around 05Z [10pm PDT] for OAK [Oakland CA] and 09Z [2am PDT] for SFO [San Francisco CA] before increasing slightly tomorrow afternoon. Some cloud cover may move in overnight/into the early morning for SFO [San Francisco CA] and OAK [Oakland CA] but guidance suggests moderate confidence that cloud cover will stay few to scattered. ∨ VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS AT SFO AND 25KTS AT OAK ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AROUND 05Z FOR OAK AND 09Z FOR SFO BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT/INTO THE EARLY MORNING FOR SFO AND OAK BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUD COVER WILL STAY FEW TO SCATTERED. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA] ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions to prevail through the afternoon. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions will return overnight for MRY [Monterey CA] around 07Z [12am PDT] and SNS [Salinas CA] around 13Z [6am PDT] but cloud cover should begin to clear at 17Z [10am PDT] tomorrow. Model guidance was split on the timing of cloud cover return for MRY [Monterey CA] with some models indicating as early as 02Z [7pm PDT] and others closer to 12Z [5am PDT]. Moderate confidence that some scattered clouds will return closer to 04Z [9pm PDT] and become broken later in the period. Afternoon winds will be breezier with SNS [Salinas CA] potentially gusting up to 15 kts [17 mph]. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT FOR MRY AROUND 07Z AND SNS AROUND 13Z BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AT 17Z TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SPLIT ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER RETURN FOR MRY WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING AS EARLY AS 02Z AND OTHERS CLOSER TO 12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO 04Z AND BECOME BROKEN LATER IN THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER WITH SNS POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO 15KTS. [AVI2] Marine. (today through Monday) issued at 11:20am PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨ .MARINE... (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 1120 AM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [AVIA] Fresh to strong northwesterly winds continue with winds becoming strong to near gale into this afternoon, with gale-force conditions developing by this evening for much of the outer waters along with favored coastal jet regions. Large northwest swell continues to slowly diminish through the next couple of days, but large wind waves begin to build overnight tonight and persist through the weekend. Both winds and waves will combine to create dangerous conditions for small craft through the remainder of the week. ∨ FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG TO NEAR GALE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GALE-FORCE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS ALONG WITH FAVORED COASTAL JET REGIONS. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT LARGE WIND WAVES BEGIN TO BUILD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. [AVI2] Beaches… issued at 2:15am PDT Wednesday September 27 2023 ∨ .BEACHES... ISSUED AT 215 AM PDT WED SEP 27 2023 [DISC] NW swell continues to move through the coastal waters and will diminish through the day today. Currently, the swell is around 10–11 feet at 14 seconds. The High Surf Advisory was allowed to expire, but was replaced by a beach hazards statement to account for lingering dangerous conditions. Large breaking waves still possible around 12–15 feet. Coastal buoys as of 2am continue to show elevated seas with significant wave heights around 12–14 feet at 14 seconds. ∨ NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CURRENTLY, THE SWELL IS AROUND 10 TO 11 FEET AT 14 SECONDS. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, BUT WAS REPLACED BY A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES STILL POSSIBLE AROUND 12 TO 15 FEET. COASTAL BUOYS AS OF 2 AM CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED SEAS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 12-14 FEET AT 14 SECONDS. [DISC] Continue to exercise caution even though the High Surf Advisory has ended, as energy in the ocean can be slow to diminish and large waves may continue to be present afterwards until fully dissipated. ∨ CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS ENDED, AS ENERGY IN THE OCEAN CAN BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AND LARGE WAVES MAY CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT AFTERWARDS UNTIL FULLY DISSIPATED. [DISC] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories California: beach hazards statement until 5pm PDT this afternoon for CAZ006–505–509–529–530. ∨ .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. [WARN] Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory until 9pm PDT this evening for PZZ530. ∨ PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ530. [WRN2] Small Craft Advisory until 3am PDT Thursday for PZZ535–560. ∨ SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ535-560. [WRN2] Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PDT Thursday for PZZ540. ∨ SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ540. [WRN2] Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for PZZ540–560. ∨ GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PZZ540-560. [WRN2] Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PDT Thursday for PZZ545. ∨ SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ545. [WRN2] Gale Warning until 3am PDT Friday for PZZ565. ∨ GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ565. [WRN2] Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PDT this afternoon for PZZ570. ∨ SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ570. [WRN2] Gale Warning until 3pm PDT Thursday for PZZ570. ∨ GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ570. [WRN2] Small Craft Advisory until 9pm PDT this evening for PZZ575. ∨ SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ575. [WRN2] Gale Warning from 9pm this evening to 3pm PDT Thursday for PZZ575. ∨ GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ575. [WRN2] Short term…behringer long term…behringer aviation…Kennedy marine…cloud-water lightning ∨ SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER LONG TERM....BEHRINGER AVIATION...KENNEDY MARINE...CW [WRN2] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]	Point Forecast Montara CA 27 Sep 02:55pm PDT Tonight Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 56°. NW wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 65°. NW wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58°. NNW wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Friday Increasing clouds, with a high near 65°. WNW wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Friday Night A 30% chance of rain, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°. WNW wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday A 20% chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61°. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54°. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63°. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54°. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65°. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54°. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66°. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 68°. Tonight Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 56. Northwest wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 65. Northwest wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58. North northwest wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Friday Increasing clouds, with a high near 65. West northwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Friday Night A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. West northwest wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
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