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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 200446 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 200446
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 9:46pm PDT Tue Jun 19 2018 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
946 PM PDT TUE JUN 19 2018 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Not much change in weather conditions through Thursday, then a pronounced warming trend for the end of the week as high pressure builds in and winds turn more offshore. A return to cooling and redevelopment of the marine layer appears in store for Sunday into the first part of next week as flow shifts back onshore. 

.SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WINDS TURN MORE OFFSHORE. A RETURN
TO COOLING AND REDEVELOPMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER APPEARS IN STORE
FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS FLOW SHIFTS BACK
ONSHORE. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 09:30pm PDT Tuesday… latest GOES [Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite]-16 advanced nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows stratus now blanketing the coast and already beginning to work its way inland around the bays. Temperatures this afternoon covered a wider spread than on Monday, with some cooling near the coast as onshore flow increased but at the same time increasing a bit well inland reflecting warming of the air mass aloft. Latest returns from the coastal profilers showed the marine layer depth ramping up to the south, from around 1400 ft at bodega to 1800 ft at Fort Ord. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 0930 PM PDT TUESDAY...LATEST GOES-16 ADVANCED
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS NOW
BLANKETING THE COAST AND ALREADY BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND
AROUND THE BAYS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON COVERED A WIDER
SPREAD THAN ON MONDAY, WITH SOME COOLING NEAR THE COAST AS ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASED BUT AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING A BIT WELL INLAND
REFLECTING WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. LATEST RETURNS FROM THE
COASTAL PROFILERS SHOWED THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH RAMPING UP TO THE
SOUTH, FROM AROUND 1400 FT AT BODEGA TO 1800 FT AT FORT ORD. [DISC]

Not a lot of change from our present weather conditions is expected through Thursday, as onshore flow continues and the marine layer remains well established. But then Friday and Saturday, a significant warm-up is expected as an upper level ridge builds northward along the coast, temperatures increase aloft, and flow turns offshore. Continues to appear that Saturday will be the warmest day, but not yet clear either exactly how hot it will get or the degree to which very warm temperatures will develop around SF Bay itself, rather than be more confined to the valleys. There are ways in which this upcoming event is reminiscent of last year's early season heat event, June 18–19, 2017, which got both hotter and more into the rim of the Bay than models had projected. Details should clarify as we start getting within the range of the higher-resolution mesoscale [medium-scale (km to 10s of km)] models. 

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM OUR PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND THE
MARINE LAYER REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. BUT THEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST, TEMPERATURES INCREASE
ALOFT, AND FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE. CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT SATURDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, BUT NOT YET CLEAR EITHER EXACTLY HOW HOT
IT WILL GET OR THE DEGREE TO WHICH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
DEVELOP AROUND SF BAY ITSELF, RATHER THAN BE MORE CONFINED TO THE
VALLEYS. THERE ARE WAYS IN WHICH THIS UPCOMING EVENT IS
REMINISCENT OF LAST YEAR`S EARLY SEASON HEAT EVENT, JUNE 18-19,
2017, WHICH GOT BOTH HOTTER AND MORE INTO THE RIM OF THE BAY THAN
MODELS HAD PROJECTED. DETAILS SHOULD CLARIFY AS WE START GETTING
WITHIN THE RANGE OF THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS. [DISC]

A couple of other notes. Both Friday night and Saturday night, temperatures up in the hills are going to remain quite warm through the night. And the GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] is picking up on possible moderately strong and gusty north to northeast winds in the North and East Bay hills Friday night into Saturday morning. This of course raises fire weather concerns, though somewhat mitigated by it being early in the season and the fuels still not having fully cured. 

A COUPLE OF OTHER NOTES. BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE HILLS ARE GOING TO REMAIN QUITE WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AND THE GFS IS PICKING UP ON POSSIBLE
MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS OF
COURSE RAISES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY
IT BEING EARLY IN THE SEASON AND THE FUELS STILL NOT HAVING FULLY
CURED. [DISC]

Finally, the new GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] continues to hint at a possible southerly stratus surge up our coast on Sunday, as the upper level ridge axis shifts inland, and with it a return of the marine layer and a cooling trend into the first part of next week. 

FINALLY, THE NEW GFS CONTINUES TO HINT AT A POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY
STRATUS SURGE UP OUR COAST ON SUNDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INLAND, AND WITH IT A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER AND A
COOLING TREND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 7:00pm PDT Tuesday… marine layer hovering around 1500 feet this afternoon but is expected to compress later tonight as an upper ridge builds over Southern California. Moderate northwest onshore flow persists which is pushing some stratus through the coastal gaps. SFO [San Francisco CA] may have temporary MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings through 05Z [10pm PDT] but the approach is expected to stay clear. Ceilings becoming more widespread after 05Z [10pm PDT]. As the marine layer compresses ceilings will drop to IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] range. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 7:00 PM PDT TUESDAY...MARINE LAYER HOVERING
AROUND 1500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO COMPRESS
LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS WHICH IS PUSHING SOME
STRATUS THROUGH THE COASTAL GAPS. SFO MAY HAVE TEMPO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 05Z BUT THE APPROACH IS EXPECTED TO STAY CLEAR. CIGS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 05Z. AS THE MARINE LAYER
COMPRESSES CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR RANGE. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… brief MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings possible through 05Z [10pm PDT] then becoming mostly cloudy MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings. Becoming IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] after 08Z [1am PDT]. West winds gusting to 25 kt [29 mph] through 05Z [10pm PDT]

VICINITY OF KSFO...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY MVFR CIGS. BECOMING IFR AFTER 08Z. WEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 05Z. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] after 05Z [10pm PDT]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR AFTER 05Z. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… satellite image shows a good push of stratus into southern Monterey Bay. IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A GOOD PUSH OF
STRATUS INTO SOUTHERN MRY BAY. IFR CIGS. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 08:43pm PDT Tuesday… high pressure off the California coast will strengthen on Wednesday resulting in increasing northwest winds that will last through Saturday. Gale force winds are expected south of Point Pinos [Monterey CA] Wednesday afternoon and evening. A southerly swell will mix with northwest swells through Wednesday. 

.MARINE...AS OF 08:43 PM PDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT PINOS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MIX WITH NORTHWEST SWELLS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. [AVIA]

Fire. As of 09:30pm PDT Tuesday… a pronounced warming and drying trend is forecast for the end of the week as high pressure builds in and winds turn offshore. Saturday presently looks to be the hottest day, with poor overnight recoveries both Friday night and Saturday night. Locally gusty north to northeast winds are possible in the North and East Bay hills Friday night and Saturday morning. A return to cooling and redevelopment of the marine layer appears in store for Sunday into the first part of next week as flow shifts back onshore. 

.FIRE...AS OF 09:30 PM PDT TUESDAY...A PRONOUNCED WARMING AND
DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WINDS TURN OFFSHORE. SATURDAY PRESENTLY LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. A RETURN TO COOLING AND REDEVELOPMENT OF THE MARINE
LAYER APPEARS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS FLOW SHIFTS BACK ONSHORE. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 11 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Blier; Aviation: W PI; Marine: W PI; Fire: Blier 

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
FIRE: BLIER [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Montara CA

19 Jun 9:55pm PDT

Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. WNW wind 7 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61°. WNW wind 6 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. NW wind 10 to 13 mph.
Thursday Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 61°. WNW wind 9 to 11 mph.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52°. NW wind around 9 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 62°.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 62°.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 66°.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 61°.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. West northwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. West northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 61. West northwest wind 9 to 11 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northwest wind around 9 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 62.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 62.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 66.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 61.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: