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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 252127 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 252127
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 2:27pm PDT Tue Jun 25 2024 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
227 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [HEAD]

New synopsis, short term, long term.  

...NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... [DISC]

Synopsis. Issued at 2:20pm PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [DISC]

Chances for elevated thunderstorms continue across the Bay Area through this evening with chances diminishing by evening. Cooler, seasonal to below average temperatures return Wednesday and persist through the end of the week. 

CHANCES FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING BY EVENING. COOLER,
SEASONAL TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. [DISC]

Short term. (this evening through Wednesday) issued at 2:20pm PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.SHORT TERM...
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [DISC]

Slight (10–15%) chance of thunderstorms producing dry lightning continues over the Bay Area before chances diminish by the late evening. Radar continues to show elevated cells moving over Sonoma, Napa, and Marin Counties with the potential for isolated thunderstorms continuing into the evening hours. For lightning activity so far today, several strikes occurred in the vicinity of the San Jose and Livermore airports this morning. Three airports (San Francisco, Livermore, and San Jose) observed trace precipitation overnight and again this morning, indicating some precipitation is making it to the surface. However, precipitation totals greater than a few hundredths of an inch are not anticipated as most precipitation is expected to evaporate before reaching the ground (creating a neat phenomenon known as virga). Remember to stay weather aware and when thunder roars, go indoors! 

SLIGHT (10-15%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DRY LIGHTNING
CONTINUES OVER THE BAY AREA BEFORE CHANCES DIMINISH BY THE LATE
EVENING. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED CELLS MOVING OVER
SONOMA, NAPA, AND MARIN COUNTIES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOR LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY, SEVERAL STRIKES OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SAN JOSE AND LIVERMORE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. THREE AIRPORTS
(SAN FRANCISCO, LIVERMORE, AND SAN JOSE) OBSERVED TRACE
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS MORNING, INDICATING SOME
PRECIPITATION IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION
TOTALS GREATER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AS MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND (CREATING A NEAT PHENOMENON KNOWN AS VIRGA).
REMEMBER TO STAY WEATHER AWARE AND WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! [DISC]

Tuesday continues to be the warmest day this week with temperatures cooling down beginning Wednesday. Tonight's overnight low temperatures, both inland and along the coast, will range from the low to upper 50's. Upper level troughing will move inland tonight into tomorrow with temperatures cooling down to seasonal to slightly below average. Wednesday's inland high temperatures are expected to be 3–7° cooler than today's with most areas seeing highs in the upper 70's to mid 80's. Favored inland hot spots may see temperatures reach the upper 80's. Closer to the coast, cooler temperatures prevail with highs largely in the upper 50's to mid 60's. As upper level troughing moves inland, the marine layer is expected to deepen with increasing stratus chances along the coastline and portions of the San Francisco Bay. 

TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING DOWN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT`S OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES, BOTH INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST, WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO UPPER 50`S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY`S INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 3 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70`S TO MID 80`S. FAVORED INLAND HOT SPOTS MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80`S. CLOSER TO THE COAST, COOLER
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE UPPER 50`S TO MID
60`S. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES INLAND, THE MARINE LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH INCREASING STRATUS CHANCES ALONG THE
COASTLINE AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY. [DISC]

Long term. (Wednesday night through next Monday) issued at 2:20pm PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [DISC]

Upper level troughing will persist through late week with seasonal to below average temperatures similar to Wednesday (upper 70's to mid 80's inland and upper 50's to mid 60's along the coast) continuing through Saturday. However, by Sunday, guidance continues to indicate a warming trend will develop as upper level ridging again builds over the West Coast. While this forecast is several days out and subject to revision, here is a preview of what the warming trend currently looks like. By Sunday, inland temperatures will gradually warm into the upper 80's to low 90's before reaching into the low to mid 90's on Monday and low to upper 90's on Tuesday. While outside of this forecast period, longer term guidance suggests that these warmer temperatures will prevail through most of next week. For those along the coast, temperatures will warm into the 60's to low 70's beginning Sunday through the end of the forecast period. 

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH SEASONAL
TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY (UPPER 70`S TO
MID 80`S INLAND AND UPPER 50`S TO MID 60`S ALONG THE COAST)
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. WHILE THIS FORECAST IS SEVERAL
DAYS OUT AND SUBJECT TO REVISION, HERE IS A PREVIEW OF WHAT THE
WARMING TREND CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE. BY SUNDAY, INLAND TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S BEFORE REACHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90`S ON MONDAY AND LOW TO UPPER 90`S ON TUESDAY.
WHILE OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, LONGER TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR THOSE ALONG THE COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
60`S TO LOW 70`S BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. [DISC]

Aviation. (18Z [11am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 10:59am PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [AVIA]

High-level clouds with a few embedded storm cells are moving across the region through the region. Chances for storms linger into the evening but more of the focus will be to the north and east of the region. Expect breezy conditions through the afternoon that ease into the evening. As winds reduce, IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]/MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings begin to move inland affecting the Monterey Bay TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites this evening, with OAK [Oakland CA] and SFO [San Francisco CA] affected late into the night. Winds stay light to moderate through Wednesday morning, with ceilings dissipating in the mid to late morning. Expect widespread VFR [Visual Flight Rules] by Wednesday afternoon with gusty and breezy winds. 

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORM CELLS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES FOR STORMS LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BUT MORE OF THE FOCUS WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT EASE INTO
THE EVENING. AS WINDS REDUCE, IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND
AFFECTING THE MONTEREY BAY TAF SITES THIS EVENING, WITH OAK AND SFO
AFFECTED LATE INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH CIGS DISSIPATING IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY AND BREEZY
WINDS. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… broken high-level clouds become scattered into the evening and exit overnight. Winds become breezy this afternoon with gusts around 22 kts [25 mph]. Winds reduce into the night with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings filling over the terminal. These ceilings erode into mid Wednesday morning with gustier west winds arriving into Wednesday morning. 

VICINITY OF SFO...BROKEN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED INTO THE
EVENING AND EXIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 22 KTS. WINDS REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
FILLING OVER THE TERMINAL. THESE CIGS ERODE INTO MID WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTIER WEST WINDS ARRIVING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VF lasts into the evening with passing high clouds. Moderate to breezy westerly winds build this afternoon. Winds reduce into the evening as IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings move inland and fill over MRY [Monterey CA], with SNS [Salinas CA] filling later into the night. Ceilings erode in the mid to late morning on Wednesday as moderate to breezy winds arrive. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VF LASTS INTO THE EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. MODERATE TO BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS BUILD THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS REDUCE INTO THE EVENING AS IFR CIGS MOVE INLAND AND FILL OVER
MRY, WITH SNS FILLING LATER INTO THE NIGHT. CIGS ERODE IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS ARRIVE. [AVI2]

Marine. (today through Sunday) issued at 10:59am PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.MARINE...
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [AVIA]

Moderate to breezy northwesterly continue. Stronger northwesterly breezes arrive into Wednesday morning creating hazardous conditions for small crafts across all the waters. Significant wave heights will continue to abate below 10 feet through the period. 

MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE. STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ARRIVE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING CREATING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE BELOW 10 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD. [AVI2]

Fire weather. Issued at 3:15am PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [AVIA]

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, with limited coverage. Given the elevated nature of any storms that may develop, any rainfall amounts, if any, will be light with some virga possible and subsequent gusty winds. Any strikes that do occur may cause a fire start in the fine fuels. 

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF ANY STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP, ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF ANY, WILL BE LIGHT WITH
SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE AND SUBSEQUENT GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRIKES THAT
DO OCCUR MAY CAUSE A FIRE START IN THE FINE FUELS. [AVI2]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • California: none.
  • Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory from 3pm to 9pm PDT Wednesday for Monterey Bay. 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR MRY BAY. [WARN]
  • Small Craft Advisory from 9am Wednesday to 3am PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]
  • Small Craft Advisory from 3pm Wednesday to 3am PDT Thursday for Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-
10 NM. [WRN2]
  • Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 9pm PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON
PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]
  • Short term…Kennedy long term…Kennedy aviation…murdock marine…murdock 
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM....KENNEDY
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK [WRN2]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Montara CA

25 Jun 02:55pm PDT

Tonight Patchy dense fog between 8pm and 3am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 51°. WNW wind around 7 mph.
Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57°. WNW wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°. WNW wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 58°. WNW wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°. WNW wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°.
Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 59°.
Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Monday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 52°.
Tuesday Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Tonight
Patchy dense fog between 8pm and 3am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 51. West northwest wind around 7 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. West northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. West northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 58. West northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. West northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 59.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.
Monday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Tuesday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 61.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: