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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 070540 AFDMTR ∨

FXUS66 KMTR 070540
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 10:40pm PDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1040 PM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026 [HEAD]

New aviation. ∨

...NEW AVIATION... [DISC]

Key Messages… updated at 11:43am PDT Sun September 6 2026 ∨

.KEY MESSAGES...
UPDATED AT 1143 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026 [DISC]

- hazardous conditions at Pacific coast beaches through Monday ∨

 - HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY [DISC]

- warming and drying trend Monday through Thursday with widespread moderate to areas of major heatrisk ∨

 - WARMING AND DRYING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK [DISC]

Short term. Issued at 11:43am PDT Sun September 6 2026 (this afternoon through Monday) ∨

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY) [DISC]

Hazardous conditions at Pacific coast beaches continues to be the weather headline through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Hurricane Marie will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves up to 10 feet. Stay off the beach and remain out of the water to mitigate your risk. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during high tide this evening for bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay in Marin County. Today will be the last day of well below normal temperatures before the warming and drying trend kicks off Monday. The marine layer continues to struggle to come back in full force with low confidence in it doing so through Monday and even into the long term forecast. ∨

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT PACIFIC COAST BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE THE
WEATHER HEADLINE THROUGH MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE MARIE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER
WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WITH BREAKING WAVES UP TO 10 FEET.
STAY OFF THE BEACH AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO MITIGATE YOUR
RISK. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN PABLO BAY IN MARIN
COUNTY. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEFORE THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND KICKS OFF MONDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO COME BACK IN FULL FORCE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IT DOING SO THROUGH MONDAY AND EVEN INTO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. [DISC]

Long term. Issued at 11:43am PDT Sun September 6 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) ∨

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY) [DISC]

Anomalously high heights from upper-level ridging across the desert southwest will nose in from the east on Tuesday, peaking Wednesday into Thursday. The forecast has trended significantly warmer and drier. The reason being an upper-level shortwave trough will dig well of the West Coast and join forces with post-tropical cyclone Marie and become a cutoff low [A closed upper-level low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from basic westerly current, and moves independently of that current. Cutoff lows may remain nearly stationary for days, or on occasion may move westward opposite to the prevailing flow aloft]. The overall weakness of the low and its Independence from the jet stream will give the ridge precedence over the forecast as its allowed to join forces with ridging over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. A weaker than normal sea breeze circulation will mean that even the coast will be impacted due to limited onshore flow and thus marine layer formation. There is now widespread moderate to areas of major heatrisk, meaning that at this point a Heat Advisory would be needed for most of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be 10–15° above normal and likely feel worse due to us coming off the heels of well below normal temperatures. To put this upcoming event into context, 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights will be between the 90th percentile and record values. Needless to say, rain chances from remnant tropical moisture have been wiped out. An approaching upper-level trough will tamp down the ridge Friday into next weekend, cooling temperatures to near normal and increasing onshore flow. ∨

ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS FROM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL NOSE IN FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY, PEAKING WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND
DRIER. THE REASON BEING AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
WELL OF THE WEST COAST AND JOIN FORCES WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
MARIE AND BECOME A CUTOFF LOW. THE OVERALL WEAKNESS OF THE LOW AND
ITS INDEPENDENCE FROM THE JET STREAM WILL GIVE THE RIDGE PRECEDENCE
OVER THE FORECAST AS ITS ALLOWED TO JOIN FORCES WITH RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A WEAKER THAN NORMAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL MEAN THAT EVEN THE COAST WILL BE IMPACTED DUE TO
LIMITED ONSHORE FLOW AND THUS MARINE LAYER FORMATION. THERE IS NOW
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK, MEANING THAT AT THIS
POINT A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
LIKELY FEEL WORSE DUE TO US COMING OFF THE HEELS OF WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS UPCOMING EVENT INTO CONTEXT, 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND RECORD VALUES. NEEDLESS TO SAY, RAIN CHANCES FROM REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN WIPED OUT. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TAMP DOWN THE RIDGE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, COOLING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. [DISC]

Aviation. (06Z [11pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 10:40pm PDT Sun September 6 2026 ∨

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026 [AVIA]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions continue tonight with haf currently the only terminal with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings. Some ceilings are beginning to develop over the East Bay and may fill in over OAK [Oakland CA] in the next few hours. North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals are expected develop MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]-IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings after midnight with increased confidence for STS [Santa Rosa CA] to develop LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings. The weak offshore flow is expected to begin after midnight and persist into late Monday morning which will help scatter out any stratus or fog by mid-morning. Medium confidence on stratus/fog arrival times. Gentle winds persist overnight with the direction influenced by local terrain. Moderate onshore breezes settle in by Monday afternoon into the evening. ∨

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH HAF CURRENTLY THE ONLY TERMINAL
WITH MVFR CEILINGS. SOME CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EAST BAY AND MAY FILL IN OVER OAK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH BAY
AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP MVFR-IFR CEILINGS
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR STS TO DEVELOP LIFR
CEILINGS. THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP SCATTER OUT ANY
STRATUS OR FOG BY MID-MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON STRATUS/FOG
ARRIVAL TIMES. GENTLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE DIRECTION
INFLUENCED BY LOCAL TERRAIN. MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZES SETTLE IN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… stratus is beginning to develop along the coast, though VFR [Visual Flight Rules] is advertised through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Low to medium confidence on whether SFO [San Francisco CA] will develop MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings as the weak offshore flow may result in a patchy marine layer. Gentle southwest winds become south at OAK [Oakland CA] and easterly at SFO [San Francisco CA] early Monday morning and gradually increase to moderate onshore breezes through the afternoon. ∨

VICINITY OF SFO...STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST,
THOUGH VFR IS ADVERTISED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER SFO WILL DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS AS THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A PATCHY MARINE LAYER. GENTLE SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT OAK AND EASTERLY AT SFO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with light southerly breezes at MRY [Monterey CA] meanwhile SNS [Salinas CA] remains northwest for a few more hours before shifting southerly. IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings develop at MRY [Monterey CA] shortly after midnight which is then followed by SNS [Salinas CA] early Monday morning. Stratus is expected to scatter out in the post-sunrise and become VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through Monday afternoon. Gentle northwest breezes increase as stratus clears from the terminals. ∨

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES AT MRY
MEANWHILE SNS REMAINS NORTHWEST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY. IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT MRY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH
IS THEN FOLLOWED BY SNS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT IN THE POST-SUNRISE AND BECOME VFR THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZES INCREASE AS STRATUS CLEARS FROM
THE TERMINALS. [AVI2]

Marine. (today through Friday) issued at 10:45am PDT Sun September 6 2026 ∨

.MARINE...
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026 [AVIA]

Northerly winds gradually strengthen today from moderate to fresh with strong gusts becoming more widespread. Locally stronger gusts are expected within the Monterey Bay, coastal jet regions, and within the Golden Gate Channel. Winds diminish everywhere except the far northern outer waters by late Monday with weaker winds to prevail through the rest of the week. Long period southerly swell associated with tropical activity in the eastern Pacific will continue to impact the coastal waters into next week. ∨

NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY FROM MODERATE TO FRESH
WITH STRONG GUSTS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE MONTEREY BAY, COASTAL JET REGIONS, AND
WITHIN THE GOLDEN GATE CHANNEL. WINDS DIMINISH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS BY LATE MONDAY WITH WEAKER WINDS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. [AVI2]

Beaches… issued at 5:38pm PDT Sat September 5 2026 ∨

.BEACHES...
ISSUED AT 538 PM PDT SAT SEP 5 2026 [DISC]

A beach hazards statement is in effect through Labor Day as the swell from tropical cyclones Marie and Karina reach the coast. Waves from these cyclones will travel over 1,000 miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean. ∨

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE
SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES MARIE AND KARINA REACH THE COAST.
WAVES FROM THESE CYCLONES WILL TRAVEL OVER 1,000 MILES IN ALL
DIRECTIONS, GRADUALLY FLATTENING OUT TO LOW AMPLITUDE, BUT LONG
PERIOD SWELL. THESE WAVES AREN`T VERY INTIMIDATING IF YOU`RE ON A
BOAT IN THE OPEN OCEAN, BUT THE LONG PERIOD ALLOWS THEM TO PUSH
MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH. LONG PERIOD SWELL ALWAYS INCREASES THE
CHANCE FOR SNEAKER WAVES, BUT THAT`S PARTICULARLY TRUE THIS
WEEKEND SINCE THERE ARE 2 DIFFERENT SETS OF SOUTHERLY SWELL, AND
THEIR ENERGY WILL PERIODICALLY COMBINE. IN ADDITION TO SNEAKER
WAVES, EXPECT STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES UP TO 10 FT.
AS THIS IS A HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THE WEATHER IS OTHERWISE PRETTY
NICE, THE EXPOSURE TO THE RISK IS HIGH. AVOID THE WATER IF YOU`RE
NOT AN EXPERT SWIMMER. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, SWIM PARALLEL
TO SHORE UNTIL YOU STOP FEELING THE PULL. EVEN ON THE BEACH, BE
PREPARED FOR SNEAKER WAVES THIS WEEKEND AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
ON THE OCEAN. [DISC]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

California: beach hazards statement through Monday evening for CAZ006–505–509–529–530. ∨

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530. [WARN]

Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory until 3am PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]

Small Craft Advisory until 9am PDT Monday for Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]. ∨

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM. [WRN2]

Short term…sarment long term…sarment aviation…navarrete marine…navarrete ∨

SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...NAVARRETE
MARINE...NAVARRETE [WRN2]

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Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 070540 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 070540 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco California 10:40pm PDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 1040 PM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026 [HEAD] New aviation. ∨ ...NEW AVIATION... [DISC] Key Messages… updated at 11:43am PDT Sun September 6 2026 ∨ .KEY MESSAGES... UPDATED AT 1143 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026 [DISC] - hazardous conditions at Pacific coast beaches through Monday ∨ - HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY [DISC] - warming and drying trend Monday through Thursday with widespread moderate to areas of major heatrisk ∨ - WARMING AND DRYING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK [DISC] Short term. Issued at 11:43am PDT Sun September 6 2026 (this afternoon through Monday) ∨ .SHORT TERM... ISSUED AT 1143 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026 (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY) [DISC] Hazardous conditions at Pacific coast beaches continues to be the weather headline through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Hurricane Marie will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves up to 10 feet. Stay off the beach and remain out of the water to mitigate your risk. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during high tide this evening for bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay in Marin County. Today will be the last day of well below normal temperatures before the warming and drying trend kicks off Monday. The marine layer continues to struggle to come back in full force with low confidence in it doing so through Monday and even into the long term forecast. ∨ HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT PACIFIC COAST BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE THE WEATHER HEADLINE THROUGH MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE MARIE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WITH BREAKING WAVES UP TO 10 FEET. STAY OFF THE BEACH AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO MITIGATE YOUR RISK. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING FOR BAYSHORE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SAN PABLO BAY IN MARIN COUNTY. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND KICKS OFF MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO COME BACK IN FULL FORCE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN IT DOING SO THROUGH MONDAY AND EVEN INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. [DISC] Long term. Issued at 11:43am PDT Sun September 6 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) ∨ .LONG TERM... ISSUED AT 1143 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026 (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY) [DISC] Anomalously high heights from upper-level ridging across the desert southwest will nose in from the east on Tuesday, peaking Wednesday into Thursday. The forecast has trended significantly warmer and drier. The reason being an upper-level shortwave trough will dig well of the West Coast and join forces with post-tropical cyclone Marie and become a cutoff low [A closed upper-level low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from basic westerly current, and moves independently of that current. Cutoff lows may remain nearly stationary for days, or on occasion may move westward opposite to the prevailing flow aloft]. The overall weakness of the low and its Independence from the jet stream will give the ridge precedence over the forecast as its allowed to join forces with ridging over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. A weaker than normal sea breeze circulation will mean that even the coast will be impacted due to limited onshore flow and thus marine layer formation. There is now widespread moderate to areas of major heatrisk, meaning that at this point a Heat Advisory would be needed for most of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be 10–15° above normal and likely feel worse due to us coming off the heels of well below normal temperatures. To put this upcoming event into context, 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights will be between the 90th percentile and record values. Needless to say, rain chances from remnant tropical moisture have been wiped out. An approaching upper-level trough will tamp down the ridge Friday into next weekend, cooling temperatures to near normal and increasing onshore flow. ∨ ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS FROM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL NOSE IN FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY, PEAKING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND DRIER. THE REASON BEING AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG WELL OF THE WEST COAST AND JOIN FORCES WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE AND BECOME A CUTOFF LOW. THE OVERALL WEAKNESS OF THE LOW AND ITS INDEPENDENCE FROM THE JET STREAM WILL GIVE THE RIDGE PRECEDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AS ITS ALLOWED TO JOIN FORCES WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A WEAKER THAN NORMAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL MEAN THAT EVEN THE COAST WILL BE IMPACTED DUE TO LIMITED ONSHORE FLOW AND THUS MARINE LAYER FORMATION. THERE IS NOW WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK, MEANING THAT AT THIS POINT A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY FEEL WORSE DUE TO US COMING OFF THE HEELS OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS UPCOMING EVENT INTO CONTEXT, 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND RECORD VALUES. NEEDLESS TO SAY, RAIN CHANCES FROM REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN WIPED OUT. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAMP DOWN THE RIDGE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. [DISC] Aviation. (06Z [11pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 10:40pm PDT Sun September 6 2026 ∨ .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1040 PM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026 [AVIA] VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions continue tonight with haf currently the only terminal with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings. Some ceilings are beginning to develop over the East Bay and may fill in over OAK [Oakland CA] in the next few hours. North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals are expected develop MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]-IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings after midnight with increased confidence for STS [Santa Rosa CA] to develop LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings. The weak offshore flow is expected to begin after midnight and persist into late Monday morning which will help scatter out any stratus or fog by mid-morning. Medium confidence on stratus/fog arrival times. Gentle winds persist overnight with the direction influenced by local terrain. Moderate onshore breezes settle in by Monday afternoon into the evening. ∨ VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH HAF CURRENTLY THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH MVFR CEILINGS. SOME CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST BAY AND MAY FILL IN OVER OAK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR STS TO DEVELOP LIFR CEILINGS. THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP SCATTER OUT ANY STRATUS OR FOG BY MID-MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON STRATUS/FOG ARRIVAL TIMES. GENTLE WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE DIRECTION INFLUENCED BY LOCAL TERRAIN. MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZES SETTLE IN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. [AVI2] Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… stratus is beginning to develop along the coast, though VFR [Visual Flight Rules] is advertised through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Low to medium confidence on whether SFO [San Francisco CA] will develop MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings as the weak offshore flow may result in a patchy marine layer. Gentle southwest winds become south at OAK [Oakland CA] and easterly at SFO [San Francisco CA] early Monday morning and gradually increase to moderate onshore breezes through the afternoon. ∨ VICINITY OF SFO...STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, THOUGH VFR IS ADVERTISED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER SFO WILL DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS AS THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A PATCHY MARINE LAYER. GENTLE SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT OAK AND EASTERLY AT SFO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with light southerly breezes at MRY [Monterey CA] meanwhile SNS [Salinas CA] remains northwest for a few more hours before shifting southerly. IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings develop at MRY [Monterey CA] shortly after midnight which is then followed by SNS [Salinas CA] early Monday morning. Stratus is expected to scatter out in the post-sunrise and become VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through Monday afternoon. Gentle northwest breezes increase as stratus clears from the terminals. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES AT MRY MEANWHILE SNS REMAINS NORTHWEST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY. IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT MRY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH IS THEN FOLLOWED BY SNS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN THE POST-SUNRISE AND BECOME VFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZES INCREASE AS STRATUS CLEARS FROM THE TERMINALS. [AVI2] Marine. (today through Friday) issued at 10:45am PDT Sun September 6 2026 ∨ .MARINE... (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 1045 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026 [AVIA] Northerly winds gradually strengthen today from moderate to fresh with strong gusts becoming more widespread. Locally stronger gusts are expected within the Monterey Bay, coastal jet regions, and within the Golden Gate Channel. Winds diminish everywhere except the far northern outer waters by late Monday with weaker winds to prevail through the rest of the week. Long period southerly swell associated with tropical activity in the eastern Pacific will continue to impact the coastal waters into next week. ∨ NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY FROM MODERATE TO FRESH WITH STRONG GUSTS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE MONTEREY BAY, COASTAL JET REGIONS, AND WITHIN THE GOLDEN GATE CHANNEL. WINDS DIMINISH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS BY LATE MONDAY WITH WEAKER WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. [AVI2] Beaches… issued at 5:38pm PDT Sat September 5 2026 ∨ .BEACHES... ISSUED AT 538 PM PDT SAT SEP 5 2026 [DISC] A beach hazards statement is in effect through Labor Day as the swell from tropical cyclones Marie and Karina reach the coast. Waves from these cyclones will travel over 1,000 miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean. ∨ A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES MARIE AND KARINA REACH THE COAST. WAVES FROM THESE CYCLONES WILL TRAVEL OVER 1,000 MILES IN ALL DIRECTIONS, GRADUALLY FLATTENING OUT TO LOW AMPLITUDE, BUT LONG PERIOD SWELL. THESE WAVES AREN`T VERY INTIMIDATING IF YOU`RE ON A BOAT IN THE OPEN OCEAN, BUT THE LONG PERIOD ALLOWS THEM TO PUSH MUCH FARTHER UP THE BEACH. LONG PERIOD SWELL ALWAYS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR SNEAKER WAVES, BUT THAT`S PARTICULARLY TRUE THIS WEEKEND SINCE THERE ARE 2 DIFFERENT SETS OF SOUTHERLY SWELL, AND THEIR ENERGY WILL PERIODICALLY COMBINE. IN ADDITION TO SNEAKER WAVES, EXPECT STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES UP TO 10 FT. AS THIS IS A HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THE WEATHER IS OTHERWISE PRETTY NICE, THE EXPOSURE TO THE RISK IS HIGH. AVOID THE WATER IF YOU`RE NOT AN EXPERT SWIMMER. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE UNTIL YOU STOP FEELING THE PULL. EVEN ON THE BEACH, BE PREPARED FOR SNEAKER WAVES THIS WEEKEND AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. [DISC] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories California: beach hazards statement through Monday evening for CAZ006–505–509–529–530. ∨ .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. [WARN] Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory until 3am PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨ PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2] Small Craft Advisory until 9am PDT Monday for Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]. ∨ SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM. [WRN2] Short term…sarment long term…sarment aviation…navarrete marine…navarrete ∨ SHORT TERM...SARMENT LONG TERM....SARMENT AVIATION...NAVARRETE MARINE...NAVARRETE [WRN2] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, x, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA X.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]	Point Forecast Montara CA 06 Sep 10:55pm PDT Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57°. NW wind 5 to 10 mph. Labor Day Patchy fog between 8am and 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 68°. Calm wind becoming NW 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 58°. NW wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 70°. Light west wind. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62°. Light and variable wind. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 76°. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64°. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 71°. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 61°. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 67°. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60°. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 65°. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59°. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 66°. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Labor Day Patchy fog between 8am and 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Light west wind. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Light and variable wind. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 66.
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