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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 150803 AFDMTR ∨

FXUS66 KMTR 150803
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 1:03am PDT Fri May 15 2026 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
103 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026 [HEAD]

New short term, long term. ∨

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... [DISC]

Key Messages… updated at 1:00am PDT Friday May 15 2026 ∨

.KEY MESSAGES...
UPDATED AT 100 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026 [DISC]

- breezy and gusty winds return Friday into the weekend ∨

- BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND [DISC]

- hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend ∨

 - HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND [DISC]

- elevated fire weather conditions Friday through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts ∨

 - ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG GUSTS [DISC]

- blustery winds for all beaches Friday into the weekend and hazardous beach conditions for west facing beaches conditions Friday through Monday morning. ∨

 - BLUSTERY WINDS FOR ALL BEACHES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS FOR WEST FACING BEACHES CONDITIONS FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. [DISC]

Short term. Issued at 1:00am PDT Friday May 15 2026 (Friday through Sunday night) ∨

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 100 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) [DISC]

Zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] today with high pressure over the Pacific and upper level troughing sliding into the northern Pacific Northwest marking the start of an inside slider pattern. Northwesterly winds will increase throughout the day with gusts up to 35–45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. The Salinas Valley will see an increase in winds as well, with gusts up to 25–35 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. The forecast highs for Friday will be similar Thursday's, perhaps a few degrees warmer. ∨

ZONAL FLOW TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PACNW MARKING THE START OF AN
INSIDE SLIDER PATTERN. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST, ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND RIDGELINES, AND FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES. THE
SALINAS VALLEY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS WELL, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 35 MPH FAVORING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE VALLEY. THE
FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR THURSDAY`S, PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. [DISC]

Saturday into Sunday, the aforementioned upper level trough digs and deepens into the Intermountain West and into then into the Great Basin. This will bring an additional burst of winds, which will have a more north-northwest to northerly component. Peak gusts up to 35–45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. Locally higher perhaps close to 50 mph are possible for points at the immediate coast and the highest ridge points. The Salinas Valley will be gusty too, with gusts up to 25–45 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. Elsewhere, northerly winds may gust up to 20–35 mph. Timing for the strongest winds currently looks to be between late Saturday morning through early Sunday morning, peaking Saturday afternoon through the evening. Northerly winds, means a burst of drier air coming our way leading to elevated fire weather conditions for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast. ∨

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS AND
DEEPENS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THEN INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL BURST OF WINDS, WHICH WILL HAVE
A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY COMPONENT. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35
TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST, ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
RIDGELINES, AND FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES. LOCALLY HIGHER PERHAPS
CLOSE TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR POINTS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
THE HIGHEST RIDGE POINTS. THE SALINAS VALLEY WILL BE GUSTY TOO, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 45 MPH FAVORING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE, NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 TO 35 MPH. TIMING FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, PEAKING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS, MEANS A BURST OF DRIER AIR
COMING OUR WAY LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
INTERIOR BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. [DISC]

The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the eastern Pacific. Agree with the prior shift's thinking in that the temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday–Friday. Guidance shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms southwest of California. ∨

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD, WHICH WILL CONTINUE EASE THE NORTHERLIES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. BY TUESDAY, ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
TRAVEL EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. AGREE WITH THE PRIOR SHIFT`S THINKING IN THAT THE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
SHOWS RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE PACIFIC, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FORMS
SOUTHWEST OF CA. [DISC]

Long term. Issued at 1:00am PDT Friday May 15 2026 (Monday through Thursday) ∨

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 100 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) [DISC]

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD, WHICH WILL CONTINUE EASE THE NORTHERLIES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. BY TUESDAY, ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
TRAVEL EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. AGREE WITH THE PRIOR SHIFT`S THINKING IN THAT THE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
SHOWS RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE PACIFIC, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FORMS
SOUTHWEST OF CA. [DISC]

Aviation. (06Z [11pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 9:28pm PDT Thursday May 14 2026 ∨

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 928 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2026 [AVIA]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period for all terminals other than the Monterey Bay sites and KHAF. Gusty onshore flow will ease somewhat overnight for coastal sites and bayshore terminals, then increase again by late Friday morning through the afternoon and evening hours. ∨

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL TERMINALS OTHER THAN THE MONTEREY BAY SITES AND KHAF. GUSTY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL SITES AND
BAYSHORE TERMINALS, THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] is expected to prevail through the forecast period. Gusty winds will ease overnight then begin to increase again late Friday morning through the remainder of the forecast period with gusts up to 35 kts [40 mph] at times. ∨

VICINITY OF SFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS AT TIMES. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar timing for increase in gusty winds Friday morning. ∨

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TIMING FOR INCREASE IN GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings are expected to persist through the overnight at KMRY [Monterey CA] with a slight chance of LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] by sunrise and clearing out by late morning Friday. Low confidence on KSNS [Salinas CA] developing MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings until sunrise and persisting through mid-morning Friday. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period once stratus ceilings lift, with gusty onshore flow through the afternoon and evening hours. ∨

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT KMRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIFR BY
SUNRISE AND CLEARING OUT BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON KSNS DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS UNTIL SUNRISE AND PERSISTING THROUGH
MID-MORNING FRIDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ONCE STRATUS CIGS LIFT, WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. [AVI2]

Marine. (tonight through next Wednesday) issued at 9:28pm PDT Thursday May 14 2026 ∨

.MARINE...
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 928 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2026 [AVIA]

Gale-force northwest gusts will be widespread by Friday morning, continuing to increase through the weekend. A coastal jet will result in locally stronger gusts with occasional storm-force gusts possible. Strong wind driven seas are expected to be between 12–19 feet. The strong winds peak on Sunday and will steadily diminish into the beginning of next week. ∨

GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY FRIDAY MORNING,
CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL JET WILL
RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS WITH OCCASIONAL STORM-FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. STRONG WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 12
TO 19 FEET. THE STRONG WINDS PEAK ON SUNDAY AND WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. [AVI2]

Fire weather. Issued at 5:30am PDT Thursday May 14 2026 ∨

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 530 AM PDT THU MAY 14 2026 [AVIA]

Fire weather concerns increase in the late week. Gusty offshore winds build on Friday and strengthen through the weekend with peak gusts above 30 mph for most areas and around 40–50 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low daytime humidities of 15–25% will prevail across the interior regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a modest offshore flow continues into the work week. ∨

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE IN THE LATE WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS BUILD ON FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK
GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG
THE COAST, THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES, AND ACROSS THE RIDGELINES.
VERY LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 15-25% WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR REGIONS AND HIGHER PEAKS, WITH REDUCED OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES. STRONG WINDS PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF MONDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING, BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER AS A
MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK. [AVIA]

Beaches… issued at 2:50pm PDT Thursday May 14 2026 ∨

.BEACHES...
ISSUED AT 250 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2026 [DISC]

A beach hazards statement has been issued for west facing beaches along the Pacific coast from 3pm Friday through 9am Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, never turn your back on the ocean. ∨

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST FACING BEACHES
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM 3 PM FRIDAY THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY DUE TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT LEADING TO HAZARDOUSLY
STRONG WIND WAVES AND OVERALL ROUGH SEAS. DANGEROUS SWIMMING,
BOATING, AND SURFING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. LARGE BREAKING
WAVES CAN OVERPOWER SWIMMERS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT PHYSICAL
INJURY AND INCREASE THE RISK OF DROWNING. GUSTS WILL STAY STRONG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SAND AND
INCREASED SEA SPRAY. WATER RESCUE ATTEMPTS MAY BE HAMPERED BY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM THE SEA SPRAY. REMEMBER, NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK ON THE OCEAN. [DISC]

Rgass ∨

RGASS [CRED]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

California: beach hazards statement from this afternoon through Monday morning for CAZ006–505–509–530. ∨

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-509-530. [WARN]

Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory from 9am this morning to 3pm PDT Saturday for Monterey Bay. ∨

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR MRY BAY. [WRN2]

Gale Warning from 3pm Saturday to 9pm PDT Sunday for Monterey Bay. ∨

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR MRY BAY. [WRN2]

Gale Warning until 9pm PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-
60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM. [WRN2]

Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]

Gale Warning from 3pm this afternoon to 9pm PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]

Small Craft Advisory until 3am PDT early this morning for Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]

Gale Warning until 9am PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]

Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨

     STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]

Short term…KR long term…KR aviation…JM marine…JM ∨

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM [WRN2]

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Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 150803 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 150803 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco California 1:03am PDT Fri May 15 2026 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 103 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026 [HEAD] New short term, long term. ∨ ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... [DISC] Key Messages… updated at 1:00am PDT Friday May 15 2026 ∨ .KEY MESSAGES... UPDATED AT 100 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026 [DISC] - breezy and gusty winds return Friday into the weekend ∨ - BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND [DISC] - hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend ∨ - HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND [DISC] - elevated fire weather conditions Friday through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts ∨ - ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG GUSTS [DISC] - blustery winds for all beaches Friday into the weekend and hazardous beach conditions for west facing beaches conditions Friday through Monday morning. ∨ - BLUSTERY WINDS FOR ALL BEACHES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS FOR WEST FACING BEACHES CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. [DISC] Short term. Issued at 1:00am PDT Friday May 15 2026 (Friday through Sunday night) ∨ .SHORT TERM... ISSUED AT 100 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026 (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) [DISC] Zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] today with high pressure over the Pacific and upper level troughing sliding into the northern Pacific Northwest marking the start of an inside slider pattern. Northwesterly winds will increase throughout the day with gusts up to 35–45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. The Salinas Valley will see an increase in winds as well, with gusts up to 25–35 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. The forecast highs for Friday will be similar Thursday's, perhaps a few degrees warmer. ∨ ZONAL FLOW TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN PACNW MARKING THE START OF AN INSIDE SLIDER PATTERN. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST, ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND RIDGELINES, AND FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES. THE SALINAS VALLEY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS WELL, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH FAVORING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE VALLEY. THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR THURSDAY`S, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. [DISC] Saturday into Sunday, the aforementioned upper level trough digs and deepens into the Intermountain West and into then into the Great Basin. This will bring an additional burst of winds, which will have a more north-northwest to northerly component. Peak gusts up to 35–45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. Locally higher perhaps close to 50 mph are possible for points at the immediate coast and the highest ridge points. The Salinas Valley will be gusty too, with gusts up to 25–45 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. Elsewhere, northerly winds may gust up to 20–35 mph. Timing for the strongest winds currently looks to be between late Saturday morning through early Sunday morning, peaking Saturday afternoon through the evening. Northerly winds, means a burst of drier air coming our way leading to elevated fire weather conditions for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast. ∨ SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS AND DEEPENS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL BURST OF WINDS, WHICH WILL HAVE A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY COMPONENT. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST, ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND RIDGELINES, AND FAVORED GAPS AND PASSES. LOCALLY HIGHER PERHAPS CLOSE TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR POINTS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE HIGHEST RIDGE POINTS. THE SALINAS VALLEY WILL BE GUSTY TOO, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 45 MPH FAVORING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 TO 35 MPH. TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, PEAKING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS, MEANS A BURST OF DRIER AIR COMING OUR WAY LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. [DISC] The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the eastern Pacific. Agree with the prior shift's thinking in that the temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday–Friday. Guidance shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms southwest of California. ∨ THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, WHICH WILL CONTINUE EASE THE NORTHERLIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY TUESDAY, ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO TRAVEL EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AGREE WITH THE PRIOR SHIFT`S THINKING IN THAT THE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE PACIFIC, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FORMS SOUTHWEST OF CA. [DISC] Long term. Issued at 1:00am PDT Friday May 15 2026 (Monday through Thursday) ∨ .LONG TERM... ISSUED AT 100 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026 (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) [DISC] The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the eastern Pacific. Agree with the prior shift's thinking in that the temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday–Friday. Guidance shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms southwest of California. ∨ THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, WHICH WILL CONTINUE EASE THE NORTHERLIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY TUESDAY, ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO TRAVEL EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AGREE WITH THE PRIOR SHIFT`S THINKING IN THAT THE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE PACIFIC, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FORMS SOUTHWEST OF CA. [DISC] Aviation. (06Z [11pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 9:28pm PDT Thursday May 14 2026 ∨ .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 928 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2026 [AVIA] VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period for all terminals other than the Monterey Bay sites and KHAF. Gusty onshore flow will ease somewhat overnight for coastal sites and bayshore terminals, then increase again by late Friday morning through the afternoon and evening hours. ∨ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS OTHER THAN THE MONTEREY BAY SITES AND KHAF. GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL SITES AND BAYSHORE TERMINALS, THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. [AVI2] Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] is expected to prevail through the forecast period. Gusty winds will ease overnight then begin to increase again late Friday morning through the remainder of the forecast period with gusts up to 35 kts [40 mph] at times. ∨ VICINITY OF SFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS AT TIMES. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar timing for increase in gusty winds Friday morning. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TIMING FOR INCREASE IN GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings are expected to persist through the overnight at KMRY [Monterey CA] with a slight chance of LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] by sunrise and clearing out by late morning Friday. Low confidence on KSNS [Salinas CA] developing MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings until sunrise and persisting through mid-morning Friday. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period once stratus ceilings lift, with gusty onshore flow through the afternoon and evening hours. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT KMRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIFR BY SUNRISE AND CLEARING OUT BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON KSNS DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS UNTIL SUNRISE AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ONCE STRATUS CIGS LIFT, WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. [AVI2] Marine. (tonight through next Wednesday) issued at 9:28pm PDT Thursday May 14 2026 ∨ .MARINE... (TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 928 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2026 [AVIA] Gale-force northwest gusts will be widespread by Friday morning, continuing to increase through the weekend. A coastal jet will result in locally stronger gusts with occasional storm-force gusts possible. Strong wind driven seas are expected to be between 12–19 feet. The strong winds peak on Sunday and will steadily diminish into the beginning of next week. ∨ GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST GUSTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY FRIDAY MORNING, CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL JET WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS WITH OCCASIONAL STORM-FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. STRONG WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 12 TO 19 FEET. THE STRONG WINDS PEAK ON SUNDAY AND WILL STEADILY DIMINISH INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. [AVI2] Fire weather. Issued at 5:30am PDT Thursday May 14 2026 ∨ .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 530 AM PDT THU MAY 14 2026 [AVIA] Fire weather concerns increase in the late week. Gusty offshore winds build on Friday and strengthen through the weekend with peak gusts above 30 mph for most areas and around 40–50 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low daytime humidities of 15–25% will prevail across the interior regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a modest offshore flow continues into the work week. ∨ FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE IN THE LATE WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS BUILD ON FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST, THROUGH GAPS AND PASSES, AND ACROSS THE RIDGELINES. VERY LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 15-25% WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGIONS AND HIGHER PEAKS, WITH REDUCED OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. STRONG WINDS PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING, BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER AS A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK. [AVIA] Beaches… issued at 2:50pm PDT Thursday May 14 2026 ∨ .BEACHES... ISSUED AT 250 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2026 [DISC] A beach hazards statement has been issued for west facing beaches along the Pacific coast from 3pm Friday through 9am Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, never turn your back on the ocean. ∨ A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST FACING BEACHES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM 3 PM FRIDAY THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT LEADING TO HAZARDOUSLY STRONG WIND WAVES AND OVERALL ROUGH SEAS. DANGEROUS SWIMMING, BOATING, AND SURFING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. LARGE BREAKING WAVES CAN OVERPOWER SWIMMERS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT PHYSICAL INJURY AND INCREASE THE RISK OF DROWNING. GUSTS WILL STAY STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SAND AND INCREASED SEA SPRAY. WATER RESCUE ATTEMPTS MAY BE HAMPERED BY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM THE SEA SPRAY. REMEMBER, NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. [DISC] Rgass ∨ RGASS [CRED] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories California: beach hazards statement from this afternoon through Monday morning for CAZ006–505–509–530. ∨ .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-509-530. [WARN] Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory from 9am this morning to 3pm PDT Saturday for Monterey Bay. ∨ PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR MRY BAY. [WRN2] Gale Warning from 3pm Saturday to 9pm PDT Sunday for Monterey Bay. ∨ GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR MRY BAY. [WRN2] Gale Warning until 9pm PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨ GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10- 60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10- 60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM. [WRN2] Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨ SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM. [WRN2] Gale Warning from 3pm this afternoon to 9pm PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨ GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM. [WRN2] Small Craft Advisory until 3am PDT early this morning for Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨ SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2] Gale Warning until 9am PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨ GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2] Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨ STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2] Short term…KR long term…KR aviation…JM marine…JM ∨ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM [WRN2] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, x, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA X.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]	Point Forecast Montara CA 15 May 03:35am PDT Overnight Partly cloudy, with a low around 53°. NNW wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 60°. Breezy, with a NW wind 15 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°. Windy, with a NW wind 28 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 58°. Windy, with a NW wind 29 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50°. Windy, with a NW wind 26 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 61°. Breezy. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55°. Windy. Monday Sunny, with a high near 66°. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51°. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 66°. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51°. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62°. Overnight Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 60. Breezy, with a northwest wind 15 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Windy, with a northwest wind 28 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 58. Windy, with a northwest wind 29 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Windy, with a northwest wind 26 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 61. Breezy. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Windy. Monday Sunny, with a high near 66. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 66. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.
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