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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 212145 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 212145
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1:45pm PST Thu Feb 21 2019 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
145 PM PST THU FEB 21 2019 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Cool and dry weather conditions will continue into Friday with our next chance of precipitation returning to the North Bay this weekend. Rain chances shift slightly southward early next week with the potential for unsettled weather continuing into next weekend. 

.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE NORTH
BAY THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 01:45pm PST Thursday… precipitation has come to an end across the region this afternoon under partly cloudy sky conditions. Temperatures are generally a few degrees cooler compared to 24 hours along with a much drier air mass. With this and breezy northerly winds, it feels chilly outdoors. The wind speeds are forecast to diminish late in the night and will allow for decent cooling with temperatures dropping into the 30s for most areas, even some of the inland urban centers. Expecting lower 40s in and around San Francisco while the region's coldest locations could fall into the upper 20s on Friday morning. Thus, frost will be possible across much of the region early Friday morning with the potential for black ice on any remaining wet roadways. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PST THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS. WITH
THIS AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS, IT FEELS CHILLY OUTDOORS. THE
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT AND WILL
ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S
FOR MOST AREAS, EVEN SOME OF THE INLAND URBAN CENTERS. EXPECTING
LOWER 40S IN AND AROUND SAN FRANCISCO WHILE THE REGION`S COLDEST
LOCATIONS COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING. THUS,
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE ON ANY REMAINING WET
ROADWAYS. [DISC]

Dry and slightly warmer conditions are forecast during the day Friday as a short-wave ridge moves over the region. Temperatures look to warm into the middle/upper 50s for most while 40s linger in the region's higher elevations. Chilly overnight temperatures will continue for the start of the upcoming weekend before they moderate heading into early next week in response to increased low level moisture and cloud cover. Chances for precipitation return to the far northern portions of the North Bay late in the day Saturday and potentially down into the San Francisco Bay Area by Sunday. At this time, the best chances for widespread precipitation during the weekend will be over far Northern California as a weak atmospheric river advects inland across that region. Rainfall will drop off dramatically to the south with locations across the Central Coast staying dry through the entire weekend. 

DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S FOR MOST WHILE 40S LINGER IN
THE REGION`S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE THEY MODERATE
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA BY SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME, THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING THE
WEEKEND WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER ADVECTS INLAND ACROSS THAT REGION. RAINFALL WILL DROP OFF
DRAMATICALLY TO THE SOUTH WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
STAYING DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. [DISC]

More widespread rainfall may drop southward Monday into Tuesday, yet confidence is medium at best as the forecast models and run-to-run solutions are not consistent. At this time, areas north of the Golden Gate appear most likely to see widespread measurable precipitation with amounts of 1–3 inches (likely higher in the coastal ranges) through Tuesday. Meanwhile, precipitation will be generally less than 1 inch for San Francisco and points southward with 0.25" or less for the Monterey Bay region/Central Coast. We will continue to monitor the model output in the coming days and adjust the forecast accordingly. 

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY DROP SOUTHWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, YET
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST AS THE FORECAST MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT CONSISTENT. AT THIS TIME, AREAS NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES (LIKELY HIGHER IN THE
COASTAL RANGES) THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR SAN FRANCISCO AND POINTS SOUTHWARD
WITH 0.25" OR LESS FOR THE MONTEREY BAY REGION/CENTRAL COAST. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL OUTPUT IN THE COMING DAYS AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. [DISC]

The models differ even more so heading into the latter half of next week with the ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] drying conditions out region-wide late Wednesday into Thursday with the GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] simply shifting precipitation back to the north. The longer range guidance suggests the potential for continued unsettled weather heading into the first weekend if not the first full week of March. As a result, the CPC [Climate Prediction Center] has our entire region in a 60% probability of above normal precipitation in their 8–14 day outlook. Stay tuned. 

THE MODELS DIFFER EVEN MORE SO HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ECMWF DRYING CONDITIONS OUT REGION-WIDE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE GFS SIMPLY SHIFTING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
NORTH. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND IF NOT
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MARCH. AS A RESULT, THE CPC HAS OUR ENTIRE
REGION IN A 60% PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THEIR 8-
14 DAY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED... [DISC]

Aviation. As of 09:25am PST Thursday… for 18Z [10am PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions through the period with mostly clear skies. Breezy to locally gusty winds this afternoon, although not as strong as yesterday. Generally expecting gusts this afternoon 20–25 kt [23–29 mph]

.AVIATION...AS OF 09:25 AM PST THURSDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY. GENERALLY EXPECTING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON 20 TO 25 KT. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with mainly clear skies. West to northwest winds gusting 20–25 kt [23–29 mph] this afternoon. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… showers have moved out. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions through the period with mostly clear skies. Breezy onshore winds this afternoon gusting to around 20 kt [23 mph]

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS....SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 08:12am PST Thursday… gusty northwest winds will persist today across the waters with gale force gusts expected over the outer waters. These winds will generate steep fresh swell creating hazardous conditions, especially for smaller vessels. Winds will diminish Friday and through the weekend. Moderate northwest swell will continue into next week. 

.MARINE...AS OF 08:12 AM PST THURSDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP
FRESH SWELL CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SMALLER
VESSELS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Rgass; Aviation: AS; Marine: AS 

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: AS
MARINE: AS [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Montara CA

This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 56°. Breezy, with a north wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Tonight Clear, with a low around 41°. Breezy, with a NNE wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 55°. NNE wind 9 to 11 mph becoming WNW in the afternoon.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44°. WNW wind around 13 mph.
Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 55°. West wind around 7 mph.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Sunday A 20% chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56°.
Sunday Night A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Monday A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 58°. Breezy.
Monday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 51°.
Tuesday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 59°.
Tuesday Night A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 51°.
Wednesday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60°.
This Afternoon
Sunny, with a high near 56. Breezy, with a north wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 41. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 55. North northeast wind 9 to 11 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. West northwest wind around 13 mph.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 55. West wind around 7 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Sunday
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.
Sunday Night
A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 48.
Monday
A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Breezy.
Monday Night
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 51.
Tuesday
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 59.
Tuesday Night
A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 51.
Wednesday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: