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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 222047 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 222047
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1:47pm PDT Wed May 22 2019 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
147 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2019 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Temperatures will be on the warming trend through the remainder of the week, yet will remain below seasonal averages. Unseasonably cool and unsettled conditions continue into the upcoming weekend with a renewed chance of rain showers as another system drops southward across the region. 

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, YET WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A RENEWED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 01:45pm PDT Wednesday… radar has been switched back to clear air mode for the time being as shower activity has exited to Southern California. Satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the Bay Area with widespread cumulus clouds from the South Bay southward. Increased sunshine, warmer airmass and lack of precipitation has led to warmer temperatures this afternoon with many locales running 5–10° above Tuesday's maximum temps. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR HAS BEEN
SWITCHED BACK TO CLEAR AIR MODE FOR THE TIME BEING AS SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS EXITED TO SOCAL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH WIDESPREAD CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTH BAY SOUTHWARD. INCREASED SUNSHINE, WARMER AIRMASS AND LACK
OF PRECIP HAS LED TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY
LOCALES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE TUESDAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPS. [DISC]

Once the sun sets expect the cumulus to diminish with mainly clear skies in the heart of the Bay Area with more clouds likely around Monterey Bay. If the higher res models verify overnight, breezy to gusty NE are forecast over the North and East Bay higher terrain. Gusts over 30 mph are possible. 

ONCE THE SUN SETS EXPECT THE CUMULUS TO DIMINISH WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE HEART OF THE BAY AREA WITH MORE CLOUDS LIKELY AROUND
MONTEREY BAY. IF THE HIGHER RES MODELS VERIFY OVERNIGHT, BREEZY TO
GUSTY NE ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HIGHER TERRAIN.
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. [DISC]

The longwave pattern keeps a broad upper trough over the region surprisingly into early next week. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees on Thursday returning closer to normal. Highs will be in the 60s to mid 70s. Several models rotate a weak shortwave around the base of the upper trough Thursday afternoon. There will likely be enough lift to support a few pop up showers or an isolated thunderstorm over Gabilan Range during peak heating. 

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN KEEPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
SURPRISINGLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES ON THURSDAY RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. SEVERAL MODELS ROTATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER GABILAN RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING. [DISC]

As noted on the previous discussion additional disturbances rotate around the trough as well bringing additional precipitation chances to the state. A few showers may drift westward in the forecast area on Friday and early Saturday. Another upper low takes aim at the Bay Area again late in the weekend providing a better chance for precipitation late Saturday and more so on Sunday. It doesn't look like a total wash out at this point for the holiday weekend, but more showery in nature. 

AS NOTED ON THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AS WELL BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE STATE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT WESTWARD IN THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
TAKES AIM AT THE BAY AREA AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SATURDAY AND MORE SO ON SUNDAY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AT THIS POINT FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, BUT MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. [DISC]

Memorial Day looks cool with a few isolated showers. Warmer and drier will develop Tuesday and Wednesday. 

MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS COOL WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMER AND
DRIER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 011:05am PDT Wednesday… clearing from north to south is ongoing with generally VFR [Visual Flight Rules] and mostly clear skies across the northern half of the Bay Area late this morning. Scattered-broken clouds at 2500–4000 across portions of the South Bay and Central Coast areas will persist into the afternoon. Some additional vertically weak cumulus may form and/or spill over later today. For tonight, low clouds are expected to inundate the Central Coast and attempt to push into the immediate Bay Area. Patchy ceilings expected at KOAK [Oakland CA] KSJC [San Jose CA] KLVK [Livermore CA] KSFO [San Francisco CA] by sunrise Thursday while overcast conditions expected at KMRY [Monterey CA]/KSNS [Salinas CA]. Breezy to locally gusty onshore winds this afternoon and evening. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 011:05 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IS ONGOING WITH GENERALLY VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAY AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AT 2500-4000 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH BAY AND CENTRAL COAST
AREAS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME ADDITIONAL VERTICALLY
WEAK CUMULUS MAY FORM AND/OR SPILL OVER LATER TODAY. FOR TONIGHT,
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INUNDATE THE CENTRAL COAST AND ATTEMPT
TO PUSH INTO THE IMMEDIATE BAY AREA. PATCHY CIGS EXPECTED AT KOAK
KSJC KLVK KSFO BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WHILE OVERCAST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KMRY/KSNS. BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. By 20–21Z [1–2pm PDT] winds increase and turn westerly, with sustained winds 13–18 kt [15–21 mph] and gusts 24–28 kt [28–32 mph] possible during the afternoon and evening. Winds ease overnight with patchy scattered/broken clouds into Thursday morning. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. BY 20-21Z WINDS INCREASE AND TURN
WESTERLY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 13-18KT AND GUSTS 24-28KT POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY
SCT/BKN CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with scattered clouds inland and a few clouds closer to the coast. Breezy to occasionally gusty onshore winds today. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings return between 01–03Z [6–8pm PDT] with borderline IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings late tonight into early Thursday morning. Mid to late morning mix out Thursday. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS INLAND AND A
FEW CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS TODAY. MVFR CIGS RETURN BTWN 01-03Z WITH BORDERLINE
IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MID TO LATE
MORNING MIX OUT THURSDAY. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 11:04am PDT Wednesday… a large, moderate period, late season northwest swell is moving across the waters today. Breakers of up to around 20 feet are possible. In addition, increasing northwest winds with gale force gusts are forecast across the northern and outer waters through the day today. Gale force winds and large northwest swell will create hazardous conditions in the near term. Moderate wind and seas will persist through the end of the week, particularly in the northern outer waters. 

.MARINE...AS OF 11:04 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A LARGE, MODERATE PERIOD,
LATE SEASON NORTHWEST SWELL IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY.
BREAKERS OF UP TO AROUND 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION,
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS AND LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM. MODERATE WIND AND SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Tonight: High Surf Advisory…CAZ006–505–509–529–530 Small Craft AdvisoryPt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] GLWPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] until 2pm GLWPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] until 3am GLWPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] until 3am Small Craft Advisory…rough bar advisory for SF bar Small Craft Advisory…Monterey Bay 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...CAZ006-505-509-529-530
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MRY BAY [WARN]

Public Forecast: MM; Aviation: DRP; Marine: DRP 

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay CA

22 May 3:20pm PDT

This Afternoon Sunny early, then becoming mostly cloudy, with a high near 63°. WNW wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. WNW wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65°. NW wind 5 to 9 mph becoming SW in the morning.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. SSW wind 9 to 13 mph.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 62°. SSW wind around 10 mph.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°.
Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59°.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Sunday A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Memorial Day Sunny, with a high near 61°.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49°.
Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49°.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 63°.
This Afternoon
Sunny early, then becoming mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. West northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. West northwest wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southwest in the morning.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. South southwest wind 9 to 13 mph.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 62. South southwest wind around 10 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 60.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Memorial Day
Sunny, with a high near 61.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 63.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: