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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 190819 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 190819
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 1:19am PDT Sat Apr 19 2025 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
119 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2025 [HEAD]

New synopsis, short term, long term.  

...NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... [DISC]

Synopsis. Issued at 12:01am PDT Sat April 19 2025 

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2025 [DISC]

Fairly quiet weather is in store through the next several days, with a modest warming trend through early next week. A pattern change will bring cooler, cloudier conditions and a chance for light rain late next week. 

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BRING COOLER, CLOUDIER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Short term. (today and tonight) issued at 12:01am PDT Sat April 19 2025 

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2025 [DISC]

The marine layer has compressed to around 500 feet, and the low stratus is confined mostly to the Bay Area coast. The marine layer is a little deeper across the Central Coast, where the stratus is filling the Salinas Valley. These clouds will clear in the afternoon and the temperatures will be near normal, similar to yesterday. A weak disturbance will arrive this evening, allowing the marine layer to deepen. As a result, cloud cover will be more extensive early Sunday morning. The offshore winds will also weaken as the gradient relaxes. This will allow more low-level moisture, and there could be patchy fog and even some drizzle across the region. 

THE MARINE LAYER HAS COMPRESSED TO AROUND 500 FEET, AND THE LOW
STRATUS IS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE BAY AREA COAST. THE MARINE LAYER
IS A LITTLE DEEPER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST, WHERE THE STRATUS IS
FILLING THE SALINAS VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING, ALLOWING
THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN. AS A RESULT, CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE
EXTENSIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO
WEAKEN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. [DISC]

Long term. (Sunday through Friday) issued at 12:01am PDT Sat April 19 2025 

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2025 [DISC]

The disturbance will quickly move through Sunday, allowing persistent zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] to become entrenched from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. This will bring fair weather with mostly clear skies, gentle to moderate onshore winds, and high temperatures above seasonal normal. The typical warmer inland areas have a roughly even chance of breaking 80° Monday. This warmer weather will cause minor heatrisk, which can be hazardous to those extremely sensitive to the heat. Otherwise, this period will be pretty nice. 

THE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY, ALLOWING
PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW TO BECOME ENTRENCHED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL. THE TYPICAL WARMER INLAND AREAS HAVE A
ROUGHLY EVEN CHANCE OF BREAKING 80 DEGREES MONDAY. THIS WARMER
WEATHER WILL CAUSE MINOR HEATRISK, WHICH CAN BE HAZARDOUS TO THOSE
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT. OTHERWISE, THIS PERIOD WILL BE
PRETTY NICE. [DISC]

Ensembles are now in good agreement that the pattern will change mid week as a deep trough disrupts the subtropical high in the eastern Pacific. This system will bring a cooler air mass from the NW, causing surface temperatures to cool back below normal by Friday. The strength and timing of this trough is still uncertain, but it is looking more likely that some light rain will fall Friday–Saturday. 

ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
MID WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DISRUPTS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE
NW, CAUSING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN,
BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. [DISC]

Aviation. (06Z [11pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 10:23pm PDT Friday April 18 2025 

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2025 [AVIA]

Satellite shows low ceilings have pushed inland over Monterey Bay and along the coast causing IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]/MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions over KSNS [Salinas CA], KMRY [Monterey CA] and KHAF. Most models show agreement of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions building over most of the terminals (with the exception of KLVK [Livermore CA]) but there is some uncertainty as some offshore winds should keep things a bit on the drier side and keep the marine layer confined to the coast. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] expected to return by 18Z [11am PDT] for all terminals, but MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions are anticipated to return by Saturday night. 

SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CEILINGS HAVE PUSHED INLAND OVER MONTEREY BAY
AND ALONG THE COAST CAUSING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVER KSNS, KMRY AND
KHAF. MOST MODELS SHOW AGREEMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS BUILDING OVER
MOST OF THE TERMINALS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLVK) BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SOME OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS A BIT ON THE
DRIER SIDE AND KEEP THE MARINE LAYER CONFINED TO THE COAST. VFR
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z FOR ALL TERMINALS, BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules] currently, but low stratus has developed along the coast. Models vary with bringing MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings in tonight. Therefore, moderate confidence on MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] building near 10Z [3am PDT], as there is a chance that a low scattered group may prevail through the night. If MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions occur, expect VFR [Visual Flight Rules] near 17–18Z [10–11am PDT]. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceiling will return by late Saturday night. 

VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CURRENTLY, BUT LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS VARY WITH BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS IN TONIGHT.
THEREFORE, MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON MVFR BUILDING NEAR 10Z, AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT A LOW SCT GROUP MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF
MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR, EXPECT VFR NEAR 17-18Z. MVFR CEILING WILL
RETURN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions will prevail until 18–19Z [11am–12pm PDT], where VFR [Visual Flight Rules] is expected to return. Timing is a bit uncertain as conditions may clear closer to 20Z [1pm PDT]. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions may prevail through most of KMRY [Monterey CA] TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Expect both terminals to see a return of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] by 03Z [8pm PDT]

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 18-
19Z, WHERE VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN. TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS
CONDITIONS MAY CLEAR CLOSER TO 20Z. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF KMRY TAF PERIOD. EXPECT BOTH TERMINALS TO SEE A
RETURN OF MVFR BY 03Z. [AVI2]

Marine. (tonight through next Thursday) issued at 8:45pm PDT Friday April 18 2025 

.MARINE...
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 845 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2025 [AVIA]

Northerly flow increases going into early Saturday, especially over the northern outer waters, as a weak cold front approaches from the north. The increasing winds will result in a building northerly fresh swell. Stronger northerly winds will last into the next week. 

NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES GOING INTO EARLY SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN A BUILDING
NORTHERLY FRESH SWELL. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST INTO THE
NEXT WEEK. [AVI2]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • California: none.
  • Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory until 3pm PDT Sunday for Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM. [WARN]
  • Short term…flynn long term…flynn aviation…so marine…so 
SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO [WRN2]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay CA

19 Apr 02:35am PDT

Overnight Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 48°. Calm wind.
Saturday Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 59°. Calm wind becoming SW 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night Patchy fog before 11pm, then patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 45°. WSW wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Sunday Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 62°. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 45°. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Monday Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 66°.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 46°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57°.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45°.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Overnight
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 48. Calm wind.
Saturday
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog before 11pm, then patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Sunday
Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 62. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 45. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Monday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 66.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 58.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: