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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 231122 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 231122
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 3:22am PST Fri Feb 23 2024 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
322 AM PST FRI FEB 23 2024 [HEAD]

New aviation, marine.  

...NEW AVIATION, MARINE... [DISC]

Synopsis. Issued at 12:03am PST Friday February 23 2024 

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PST FRI FEB 23 2024 [DISC]

Dry conditions anticipated into the start of the upcoming weekend. Unsettled conditions return on Monday with the next rain chances arriving towards the end of next week. 

DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES
ARRIVING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Short term. (today and tonight) issued at 12:03am PST Friday February 23 2024 

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PST FRI FEB 23 2024 [DISC]

A low pressure trough aloft will remain offshore as a shortwave ridge build across the area. This will bring rather benign conditions to the region although we may still see some high level clouds and perhaps some virga. Regardless the low to mid levels appear far too dry for any surface precipitation. Temperatures will warm slightly, with afternoon highs mostly in the mid to upper 60s away from the immediate coast. Lows tonight will dip into the mid to upper 40s. 

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION ALTHOUGH WE MAY STILL SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME VIRGA. REGARDLESS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS APPEAR FAR TOO
DRY FOR ANY SURFACE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. [DISC]

Long term. (Saturday through Thursday) issued at 12:03am PST Friday February 23 2024 

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PST FRI FEB 23 2024 [DISC]

Mild temperatures will prevail on Saturday with even milder readings expected. Expect highs to reach the 60s along the coast, with lower 70s for the warmest inland valleys. 

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH EVEN MILDER READINGS
EXPECTED. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S ALONG THE COAST, WITH LOWER
70S FOR THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEYS. [DISC]

Increasing clouds and stronger onshore flow will bring a cooling trend on Sunday as the offshore trough encroaches on the region. Highs should reach the lower to mid 60s, with overnight lows in the 40s. 

INCREASING CLOUDS AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A COOLING
TREND ON SUNDAY AS THE OFFSHORE TROUGH ENCROACHES ON THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S. [DISC]

A weak upper trough will progress through the region on Monday and Monday night with some light precipitation. The best rain chances will be south of the Golden Gate. Storm total amounts from this system have decreased, and range from around 0.75" in the Santa Lucias, to around 0.5" in the Santa Cruz Mountains. Amounts up to 0.25" are possible for inland portions of the Central Coast, with Bay Area amounts generally 0.15" or less. 

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM HAVE DECREASED, AND RANGE FROM AROUND 0.75" IN THE SANTA
LUCIAS, TO AROUND 0.5" IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS UP TO
0.25" ARE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST, WITH
BAY AREA AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.15" OR LESS. [DISC]

Quasi-zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] will prevail thereafter with the storm track remaining north of the area. Rain chances creep back into the picture by Thursday. More rain, potentially impactful, is expected as we head into early March. 

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER WITH THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES CREEP BACK INTO THE
PICTURE BY THURSDAY. MORE RAIN, POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL, IS EXPECTED
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY MARCH. [DISC]

Aviation. (12Z [4am PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 3:21am PST Friday February 23 2024 

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 321 AM PST FRI FEB 23 2024 [AVIA]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period at all terminals with the exception of STS [Santa Rosa CA], which has been seeing reduced visibility intermittently this morning. High pressure over the Great Basin will result in easterly winds through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. 

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
STS, WHICH HAS BEEN SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITY INTERMITTENTLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… currently VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with light southwesterly flow. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Winds will become ENE this morning and become more easterly late this evening. 

VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE THIS MORNING AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… currently VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with breezy easterly flow at both terminals. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Winds will continue to prevail out of the easterly direction through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AT
BOTH TERMINALS. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OUT OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. [AVI2]

Marine. (today through Wednesday) issued at 3:21am PST Friday February 23 2024 

.MARINE...
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM PST FRI FEB 23 2024 [AVIA]

A moderate period northwesterly swell continues to diminish as it moves through the waters with a new moderate period northwesterly swell train set to arrive Sunday. Light to moderate winds will persist through the weekend. Light rain will return to the waters by Sunday morning and continue through Monday. 

A MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS WITH A NEW MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL TRAIN SET TO ARRIVE SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS
BY  SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. [AVI2]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • California: none.
  • Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory until 9am PST this morning for Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM. [WARN]
  • Short term…SPM long term…SPM aviation…sarment marine…sarment 
SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT [WRN2]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay CA

23 Feb 04:15am PST

Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62°. ENE wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46°. ENE wind around 7 mph.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 67°. NE wind 7 to 9 mph.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46°. South wind 3 to 6 mph.
Sunday A 10% chance of rain after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 61°. South wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night A 30% chance of rain, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48°. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Monday A 50% chance of rain, mainly before 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57°.
Monday Night A slight chance of rain before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 41°. Breezy.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 54°.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 41°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57°.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 43°.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°.
Today
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. East northeast wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. East northeast wind around 7 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 67. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46. South wind 3 to 6 mph.
Sunday
A 10 percent chance of rain after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 61. South wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Monday
A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly before 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.
Monday Night
A slight chance of rain before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. Breezy.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 54.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 41.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: