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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 260637 AFDMTR ∨

FXUS66 KMTR 260637
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:37pm PST Thu Feb 25 2021 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1037 PM PST THU FEB 25 2021 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Cool nights, mild afternoons and dry weather conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend with an increase in offshore winds from Friday night into early Sunday. While a weather system may bring rain showers to Northern California early next week, much of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast will likely remain dry. ∨

.SYNOPSIS...COOL NIGHTS, MILD AFTERNOONS AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 9:37pm PST Thursday… no significant forecast updates this evening. We still have an 8–9 mb northerly gradient down the coast with Gale Warnings over much of the ocean. This pattern has generated strong upwelling with SST [sea surface temperature] down into the lower 50s along the coast. Any onshore breezes near the coast/beaches the next few days will be especially chilly as this was already felt this afternoon with cool 50s around sunset. The airmass remains dry with dewpoints down into the upper 20s and 30s making for a chilly night ahead as winds ease off over land. No widespread frost forecast but therell be a chill in the air by sunrise given the dry airmass. ∨

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:37 PM PST THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING. WE STILL HAVE AN 8-9 MB NORTHERLY
GRADIENT DOWN THE COAST WITH GALE WARNINGS OVER MUCH OF THE OCEAN.
THIS PATTERN HAS GENERATED STRONG UPWELLING WITH SST DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. ANY ONSHORE BREEZES NEAR THE
COAST/BEACHES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY AS THIS
WAS ALREADY FELT THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOL 50S AROUND SUNSET. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS WINDS EASE OFF OVER LAND. NO
WIDESPREAD FROST FORECAST BUT THERELL BE A CHILL IN THE AIR BY
SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS. [DISC]

As noted below nice weather in store to wind out the work week with dry and seasonal weather. ∨

AS NOTED BELOW NICE WEATHER IN STORE TO WIND OUT THE WORK WEEK
WITH DRY AND SEASONAL WX. [DISC]

Next item of note will be shortwave dropping into Nevada on Saturday. This pattern will set up some offshore winds across the Bay Area Hills once again. Cool and blustery winds in the hills on Saturday will increase Saturday night into early Sunday, mainly over the North and East Bay hills. Winds look a little weaker with this offshore event with gusts generally in the 40–55 mph range but more limited to the higher elevations above 2000 feet. Humidity looks more elevated as well at least through early Sunday morning. Winds ease with drying and warming by Sunday afternoon. In terms of weekend planning, temps on Sunday look to be a little warmer and more pleasant for outdoor activities. ∨

NEXT ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NEVADA ON
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SET UP SOME OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE
BAY AREA HILLS ONCE AGAIN. COOL AND BLUSTERY WINDS IN THE HILLS ON
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS. WINDS LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
THIS OFFSHORE EVENT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE
BUT MORE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET.
HUMIDITY LOOKS MORE ELEVATED AS WELL AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS EASE WITH DRYING AND WARMING BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF WEEKEND PLANNING, TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO
BE A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE PLEASANT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. [DISC]

High pressure builds late Sunday through at least early next week with continued dry and mild weather. Will be watching an initial system drop down towards California by Tuesday/Wednesday but latest guidance suggest that system will weaken and miss us. Better agreement that longwave trough sets up along the California coast around March 5–6th with a moderate strength surface cold frontal passage. Long range trends then suggest an upper trough sets up residence over the region through mid-month with possible precipitation chances. Not seeing any AR [Arkansas (or atmospheric river)] connections but rather a colder Gulf of Alaska type trough off the West Coast. Its about the best we can ask for at this time, as March can be a fairly wet month but we are running out of time to put dents in our rainfall deficits that will almost certainly end the rain year well below normal. ∨

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MILD WX. WILL BE WATCHING AN INITIAL
SYSTEM DROP DOWN TOWARDS CA BY TUE/WEDS BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MISS US. BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE CA COAST AROUND MARCH 5-6TH
WITH A MODERATE STRENGTH SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LONG RANGE
TRENDS THEN SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP RESIDENCE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MID-MONTH WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES. NOT SEEING
ANY AR CONNECTIONS BUT RATHER A COLDER GULF OF ALASKA TYPE TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST. ITS ABOUT THE BEST WE CAN ASK FOR AT THIS
TIME, AS MARCH CAN BE A FAIRLY WET MONTH BUT WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF
TIME TO PUT DENTS IN OUR RAINFALL DEFICITS THAT WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY END THE RAIN YEAR WELL BELOW NORMAL. [DISC]

Previous discussion… as of 1:45pm PST Thursday. Dry weather conditions will prevail through tonight with another uptick in northerly winds in the region's ridges and peaks. With the dry air mass, clear sky conditions and light winds in the lower elevations tonight, look for temperatures to drop into the 30s for many interior locations with 40s elsewhere. Similar to this afternoon, Friday will feature above average temperatures and mostly clear sky conditions with offshore flow continuing. ∨

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:45 PM PST THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPTICK IN
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE REGION`S RIDGES AND PEAKS. WITH THE DRY AIR
MASS, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR
MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. [DISC]

Winds will once again increase region-wide Friday night into Saturday as a mid/upper level trough deepens over the Great Basin before developing into a cut-off low over Arizona on Sunday. This will bring another round of strong, gusty offshore winds across the peaks and ridges while locally mixing down into the hills. Thus, another Wind Advisory may be needed during the upcoming weekend for portions of the Bay Area/Central Coast. Winds are forecast to begin to weaken during the day Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Mostly sunny/clear conditions look to prevail through the upcoming weekend with daytime temperatures above seasonal averages. ∨

WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE
PEAKS AND RIDGES WHILE LOCALLY MIXING DOWN INTO THE HILLS. THUS,
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FOR
PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA/CENTRAL COAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. [DISC]

Forecast confidence decreases heading into early next week as the deterministic models vary with respect to the mid/upper level pattern. The ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] depicts a trough sweeping across the Pacific Northwest resulting in the potential for a few rain showers reaching Northern California. Meanwhile, the GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] indicates high pressure aloft until a closed mid/upper level low approaches the coast midweek with increased potential for some precipitation. That said, the ensembles suggest mostly dry weather conditions with temperatures near seasonal averages heading into at least the first half of next week. Thereafter, there is slightly better confidence of unsettled, wetter conditions toward the end of next week (around March sixth-6th). ∨

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY WITH RESPECT TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS REACHING
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE, THE GFS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT UNTIL A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE COAST
MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID,
THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES HEADING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREAFTER, THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE OF UNSETTLED,
WETTER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK (AROUND MARCH 5TH-
6TH). [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:37pm PST Thursday… for the 06Z [10pm PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Near high confidence VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with offshore flow through the period. Low level wind shear tonight locally across the North Bay and East Bay. Surface winds increasing Friday afternoon and early evening. ∨

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:37 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR THE 06Z TAFS. NEAR
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WITH OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT LOCALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND EAST
BAY. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. West to northwest wind 10–15 knots [12–17 mph] decreasing tonight and Friday morning. West wind increasing Friday afternoon and evening with gusts 20–25 knots [23–29 mph]. ∨

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
DECREASING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WEST WIND INCREASING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. West to northwest winds decreasing and shifting to light east to southeast tonight. West to northwest winds redeveloping Friday afternoon and early evening. ∨

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING
AND SHIFTING TO LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 9:17pm PST Thursday… north to northwest gales over most of the coastal waters tonight through Friday, winds then gradually decreasing over the northern waters Friday night into Saturday. Gales continuing over most of the southern waters Friday night. These winds will generate steep to very steep fresh swell and bring hazardous conditions for smaller vessels, combining with a moderate period northwest swell through the weekend. ∨

.MARINE...AS OF 9:17 PM PST THURSDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALES
OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GALES CONTINUING OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP TO VERY STEEP FRESH SWELL
AND BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER VESSELS, COMBINING WITH
A MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Tonight: Small Craft Advisory…Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] GLW…Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] GLW…Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] GLW…Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft Advisory…Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] GLW…Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft Advisory…Monterey Bay until 3am ∨

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 3 AM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Rgass/RWW; Aviation/Marine: Canepa ∨

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA [CRED]

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 260637 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 260637 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:37pm PST Thu Feb 25 2021 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 1037 PM PST THU FEB 25 2021 [HEAD] Synopsis. Cool nights, mild afternoons and dry weather conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend with an increase in offshore winds from Friday night into early Sunday. While a weather system may bring rain showers to Northern California early next week, much of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast will likely remain dry. ∨ .SYNOPSIS...COOL NIGHTS, MILD AFTERNOONS AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. [DISC] Discussion. As of 9:37pm PST Thursday… no significant forecast updates this evening. We still have an 8–9 mb northerly gradient down the coast with Gale Warnings over much of the ocean. This pattern has generated strong upwelling with SST [sea surface temperature] down into the lower 50s along the coast. Any onshore breezes near the coast/beaches the next few days will be especially chilly as this was already felt this afternoon with cool 50s around sunset. The airmass remains dry with dewpoints down into the upper 20s and 30s making for a chilly night ahead as winds ease off over land. No widespread frost forecast but therell be a chill in the air by sunrise given the dry airmass. ∨ .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:37 PM PST THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING. WE STILL HAVE AN 8-9 MB NORTHERLY GRADIENT DOWN THE COAST WITH GALE WARNINGS OVER MUCH OF THE OCEAN. THIS PATTERN HAS GENERATED STRONG UPWELLING WITH SST DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. ANY ONSHORE BREEZES NEAR THE COAST/BEACHES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY AS THIS WAS ALREADY FELT THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOL 50S AROUND SUNSET. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD AS WINDS EASE OFF OVER LAND. NO WIDESPREAD FROST FORECAST BUT THERELL BE A CHILL IN THE AIR BY SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS. [DISC] As noted below nice weather in store to wind out the work week with dry and seasonal weather. ∨ AS NOTED BELOW NICE WEATHER IN STORE TO WIND OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONAL WX. [DISC] Next item of note will be shortwave dropping into Nevada on Saturday. This pattern will set up some offshore winds across the Bay Area Hills once again. Cool and blustery winds in the hills on Saturday will increase Saturday night into early Sunday, mainly over the North and East Bay hills. Winds look a little weaker with this offshore event with gusts generally in the 40–55 mph range but more limited to the higher elevations above 2000 feet. Humidity looks more elevated as well at least through early Sunday morning. Winds ease with drying and warming by Sunday afternoon. In terms of weekend planning, temps on Sunday look to be a little warmer and more pleasant for outdoor activities. ∨ NEXT ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NEVADA ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SET UP SOME OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE BAY AREA HILLS ONCE AGAIN. COOL AND BLUSTERY WINDS IN THE HILLS ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS. WINDS LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THIS OFFSHORE EVENT WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE BUT MORE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. HUMIDITY LOOKS MORE ELEVATED AS WELL AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS EASE WITH DRYING AND WARMING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF WEEKEND PLANNING, TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE PLEASANT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. [DISC] High pressure builds late Sunday through at least early next week with continued dry and mild weather. Will be watching an initial system drop down towards California by Tuesday/Wednesday but latest guidance suggest that system will weaken and miss us. Better agreement that longwave trough sets up along the California coast around March 5–6th with a moderate strength surface cold frontal passage. Long range trends then suggest an upper trough sets up residence over the region through mid-month with possible precipitation chances. Not seeing any AR [Arkansas (or atmospheric river)] connections but rather a colder Gulf of Alaska type trough off the West Coast. Its about the best we can ask for at this time, as March can be a fairly wet month but we are running out of time to put dents in our rainfall deficits that will almost certainly end the rain year well below normal. ∨ HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MILD WX. WILL BE WATCHING AN INITIAL SYSTEM DROP DOWN TOWARDS CA BY TUE/WEDS BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MISS US. BETTER AGREEMENT THAT LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE CA COAST AROUND MARCH 5-6TH WITH A MODERATE STRENGTH SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LONG RANGE TRENDS THEN SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP RESIDENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-MONTH WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES. NOT SEEING ANY AR CONNECTIONS BUT RATHER A COLDER GULF OF ALASKA TYPE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. ITS ABOUT THE BEST WE CAN ASK FOR AT THIS TIME, AS MARCH CAN BE A FAIRLY WET MONTH BUT WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO PUT DENTS IN OUR RAINFALL DEFICITS THAT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY END THE RAIN YEAR WELL BELOW NORMAL. [DISC] Previous discussion… as of 1:45pm PST Thursday. Dry weather conditions will prevail through tonight with another uptick in northerly winds in the region's ridges and peaks. With the dry air mass, clear sky conditions and light winds in the lower elevations tonight, look for temperatures to drop into the 30s for many interior locations with 40s elsewhere. Similar to this afternoon, Friday will feature above average temperatures and mostly clear sky conditions with offshore flow continuing. ∨ .PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:45 PM PST THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPTICK IN NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE REGION`S RIDGES AND PEAKS. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. [DISC] Winds will once again increase region-wide Friday night into Saturday as a mid/upper level trough deepens over the Great Basin before developing into a cut-off low over Arizona on Sunday. This will bring another round of strong, gusty offshore winds across the peaks and ridges while locally mixing down into the hills. Thus, another Wind Advisory may be needed during the upcoming weekend for portions of the Bay Area/Central Coast. Winds are forecast to begin to weaken during the day Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Mostly sunny/clear conditions look to prevail through the upcoming weekend with daytime temperatures above seasonal averages. ∨ WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE REGION-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE PEAKS AND RIDGES WHILE LOCALLY MIXING DOWN INTO THE HILLS. THUS, ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA/CENTRAL COAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. [DISC] Forecast confidence decreases heading into early next week as the deterministic models vary with respect to the mid/upper level pattern. The ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] depicts a trough sweeping across the Pacific Northwest resulting in the potential for a few rain showers reaching Northern California. Meanwhile, the GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] indicates high pressure aloft until a closed mid/upper level low approaches the coast midweek with increased potential for some precipitation. That said, the ensembles suggest mostly dry weather conditions with temperatures near seasonal averages heading into at least the first half of next week. Thereafter, there is slightly better confidence of unsettled, wetter conditions toward the end of next week (around March sixth-6th). ∨ FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY WITH RESPECT TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE, THE GFS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT UNTIL A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE COAST MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID, THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES HEADING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER, THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE OF UNSETTLED, WETTER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK (AROUND MARCH 5TH- 6TH). [DISC] Aviation. As of 10:37pm PST Thursday… for the 06Z [10pm PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Near high confidence VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with offshore flow through the period. Low level wind shear tonight locally across the North Bay and East Bay. Surface winds increasing Friday afternoon and early evening. ∨ .AVIATION...AS OF 10:37 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR THE 06Z TAFS. NEAR HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WITH OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT LOCALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. [AVIA] Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. West to northwest wind 10–15 knots [12–17 mph] decreasing tonight and Friday morning. West wind increasing Friday afternoon and evening with gusts 20–25 knots [23–29 mph]. ∨ VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WEST WIND INCREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. West to northwest winds decreasing and shifting to light east to southeast tonight. West to northwest winds redeveloping Friday afternoon and early evening. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. [AVI2] Marine. As of 9:17pm PST Thursday… north to northwest gales over most of the coastal waters tonight through Friday, winds then gradually decreasing over the northern waters Friday night into Saturday. Gales continuing over most of the southern waters Friday night. These winds will generate steep to very steep fresh swell and bring hazardous conditions for smaller vessels, combining with a moderate period northwest swell through the weekend. ∨ .MARINE...AS OF 9:17 PM PST THURSDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALES OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GALES CONTINUING OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP TO VERY STEEP FRESH SWELL AND BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER VESSELS, COMBINING WITH A MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. [AVIA] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories Tonight: Small Craft Advisory…Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] GLW…Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] GLW…Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] GLW…Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft Advisory…Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] GLW…Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft Advisory…Monterey Bay until 3am ∨ .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 3 AM [WARN] Public Forecast: Rgass/RWW; Aviation/Marine: Canepa ∨ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS/RWW AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA [CRED] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]	Point Forecast Half Moon Bay CA 26 Feb 12:55am PST Overnight Clear, with a steady temperature around 45°. NNW wind 7 to 9 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 59°. NW wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 41°. NNW wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 60°. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Night Clear, with a low around 42°. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 63°. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 42°. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42°. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 59°. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 43°. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 43°. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 62°. Overnight Clear, with a steady temperature around 45. North northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 59. Northwest wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 41. North northwest wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 60. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Night Clear, with a low around 42. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 63. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 42. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 59. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 62.
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