Weather

Link to Local Radar Data

Radar

Link to Satellite Data

Satellite

National Digital Forecast Database Maximum Temperature Forecast

Max Temps

National Digital Forecast Database Weather Element Forecast

Graphical Forecast

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 251759 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 251759
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 10:59am PDT Tue Jun 25 2024 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1059 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [HEAD]

New aviation, marine.  

...NEW AVIATION, MARINE... [DISC]

Synopsis. Issued at 3:15am PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [DISC]

Elevated thunderstorms, with isolated to scattered coverage may produce lightning strikes capable of igniting grass fires today into the early evening hours. 

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY
PRODUCE LIGHTNING STRIKES CAPABLE OF IGNITING GRASS FIRES TODAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. [DISC]

Update. Issued at 9:25am PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [DISC]

Potential for high based thunderstorms continues over the Bay Area through this evening. Current radar (as of 9am) shows some weaker cells moving through the North and South Bay. Given how high based the convection is, precipitation is unlikely to reach the ground but any precipitation that does reach the surface is likely to be only a few hundredths of an inch. We will continue to monitor these cells as they move through the Bay Area for any potential thunderstorm developments that may occur. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. 

POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE BAY
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR (AS OF 9AM) SHOWS SOME
WEAKER CELLS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH AND SOUTH BAY. GIVEN HOW
HIGH BASED THE CONVECTION IS, PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY TO REACH
THE GROUND BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES REACH THE SURFACE IS
LIKELY TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THESE CELLS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE BAY AREA FOR ANY
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENTS THAT MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. [DISC]

Short term. (today and tonight) issued at 3:15am PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [DISC]

Lift associated with an upper level low approaching the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days, is producing scattered showers over the open water to our west. Lightning even farther west and closer to the base of the trough can currently be seen tracking northeast overnight. The persistent ridging over the desert southwest will deflect the strongest energy associated with the trough to our north over the next twenty four hours. Scattered showers that develop this afternoon in an area of upper level diffluent flow (mainly across Monterey Bay and points north) will be capable of producing primarily elevated thunderstorms with limited coverage. There is some concern for any elevated storms producing lightning strikes across the northern half of our area being capable of igniting a grassfire. However, instability is weak with little to no CAPE [Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. Related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.] evident. Later tonight into early Wednesday, upper level flow across our latitude becomes more zonal as the upper level low moves onshore into Washington state. Normal to slightly above normal max temperatures inland today will cool a few degrees tomorrow. 

LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE OPEN WATER TO OUR WEST. LIGHTNING EVEN FARTHER WEST
AND CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL DEFLECT THE STRONGEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW (MAINLY ACROSS MONTEREY BAY AND POINTS NORTH) WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIMITED
COVERAGE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS PRODUCING
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA BEING CAPABLE
OF IGNITING A GRASSFIRE. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH LITTLE
TO NO CAPE EVIDENT. LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR LATITUDE BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON STATE. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES INLAND TODAY WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES
TOMORROW. [DISC]

Long term. (Wednesday through Monday) issued at 3:15am PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [DISC]

The southern extent of an upper level trough axis will shift east across our area Thursday morning, as upper level flow shifts from zonal to northwest and shortwave ridging over the Pacific Northwest takes shape in the wake of the trough. The more amplified portion of the upper ridge will remain north of our area and another upper trough moves onshore over the weekend. Temperatures will cool nicely from today's peak, for the end of the week into the weekend as cooler temperatures aloft spread over our region. A warmup looks likely for the beginning of next week as broad troughing is established across western CONUS [Continental US]

THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING, AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM
ZONAL TO NORTHWEST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TAKES SHAPE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE MORE AMPLIFIED PORTION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NICELY
FROM TODAY`S PEAK, FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREAD OVER OUR REGION. A WARMUP LOOKS
LIKELY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. [DISC]

Aviation. (18Z [11am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 10:59am PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [AVIA]

High-level clouds with a few embedded storm cells are moving across the region through the region. Chances for storms linger into the evening but more of the focus will be to the north and east of the region. Expect breezy conditions through the afternoon that ease into the evening. As winds reduce, IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]/MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings begin to move inland affecting the Monterey Bay TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites this evening, with OAK [Oakland CA] and SFO [San Francisco CA] affected late into the night. Winds stay light to moderate through Wednesday morning, with ceilings dissipating in the mid to late morning. Expect widespread VFR [Visual Flight Rules] by Wednesday afternoon with gusty and breezy winds. 

HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORM CELLS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES FOR STORMS LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BUT MORE OF THE FOCUS WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT EASE INTO
THE EVENING. AS WINDS REDUCE, IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND
AFFECTING THE MONTEREY BAY TAF SITES THIS EVENING, WITH OAK AND SFO
AFFECTED LATE INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH CIGS DISSIPATING IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY AND BREEZY
WINDS. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… broken high-level clouds become scattered into the evening and exit overnight. Winds become breezy this afternoon with gusts around 22 kts [25 mph]. Winds reduce into the night with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings filling over the terminal. These ceilings erode into mid Wednesday morning with gustier west winds arriving into Wednesday morning. 

VICINITY OF SFO...BROKEN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED INTO THE
EVENING AND EXIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 22 KTS. WINDS REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
FILLING OVER THE TERMINAL. THESE CIGS ERODE INTO MID WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTIER WEST WINDS ARRIVING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VF lasts into the evening with passing high clouds. Moderate to breezy westerly winds build this afternoon. Winds reduce into the evening as IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings move inland and fill over MRY [Monterey CA], with SNS [Salinas CA] filling later into the night. Ceilings erode in the mid to late morning on Wednesday as moderate to breezy winds arrive. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VF LASTS INTO THE EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. MODERATE TO BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS BUILD THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS REDUCE INTO THE EVENING AS IFR CIGS MOVE INLAND AND FILL OVER
MRY, WITH SNS FILLING LATER INTO THE NIGHT. CIGS ERODE IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS ARRIVE. [AVI2]

Marine. (today through Sunday) issued at 10:59am PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.MARINE...
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [AVIA]

Moderate to breezy northwesterly continue. Stronger northwesterly breezes arrive into Wednesday morning creating hazardous conditions for small crafts across all the waters. Significant wave heights will continue to abate below 10 feet through the period. 

MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY CONTINUE. STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ARRIVE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING CREATING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE BELOW 10 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD. [AVI2]

Fire weather. Issued at 3:15am PDT Tuesday June 25 2024 

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2024 [AVIA]

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, with limited coverage. Given the elevated nature of any storms that may develop, any rainfall amounts, if any, will be light with some virga possible and subsequent gusty winds. Any strikes that do occur may cause a fire start in the fine fuels. 

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF ANY STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP, ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF ANY, WILL BE LIGHT WITH
SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE AND SUBSEQUENT GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRIKES THAT
DO OCCUR MAY CAUSE A FIRE START IN THE FINE FUELS. [AVI2]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • California: none.
  • Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory from 3pm to 9pm PDT Wednesday for Monterey Bay-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM. [WARN]
  • Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 9pm PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON
PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-
10 NM. [WRN2]
  • Short term…JM long term…JM aviation…murdock marine…murdock 
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK [WRN2]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea 

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay CA

25 Jun 01:55pm PDT

This Afternoon Mostly sunny, with a high near 67°. West wind around 8 mph.
Tonight Patchy fog after 9pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 48°. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 63°. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 48°. WNW wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Thursday Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 63°. WNW wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Thursday Night Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Friday Areas of fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 65°.
Friday Night Patchy fog after 9pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Saturday Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Saturday Night Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°.
Sunday Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 64°.
Sunday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°.
Monday Areas of fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 68°.
This Afternoon
Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. West wind around 8 mph.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 9pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 48. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 63. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 48. West northwest wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Thursday
Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 63. West northwest wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Friday
Areas of fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 65.
Friday Night
Patchy fog after 9pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Saturday
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Sunday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 64.
Sunday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Monday
Areas of fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 68.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: