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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 272018 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 272018
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1:18pm PDT Fri May 27 2022 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
118 PM PDT FRI MAY 27 2022 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Far inland areas will continue to cool today and Saturday, otherwise, not much change from present weather conditions through the Memorial Weekend. The one notable exception is the possibility of sprinkles or light rain in the North Bay Saturday afternoon and potentially into the Bay Area itself Saturday evening, as the tail end of a weak cold front passes through. A brief warming trend is then expected next Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a cooling back to seasonal values. 

.SYNOPSIS...FAR INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TODAY AND
SATURDAY, OTHERWISE, NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PRESENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE BAY AREA ITSELF
SATURDAY EVENING, AS THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 01:06pm PDT Friday… satellite imagery this afternoon still showing stratus over much of Sonoma County, over SF Metro, along the coast, and surrounding the entire Monterey Bay. The stratus is slowly burning off, but do not expect a huge warm up for places that have been stuck under the stratus into this afternoon. Have gently lowered temperatures for the Santa Rosa region and for sites around Monterey Bay due to the stratus impact. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:06 PM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON STILL SHOWING STRATUS OVER MUCH OF SONOMA COUNTY, OVER SF
METRO, ALONG THE COAST, AND SURROUNDING THE ENTIRE MONTEREY BAY. THE
STRATUS IS SLOWLY BURNING OFF, BUT DO NOT EXPECT A HUGE WARM UP FOR
PLACES THAT HAVE BEEN STUCK UNDER THE STRATUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE GENTLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE SANTA ROSA REGION AND FOR
SITES AROUND MONTEREY BAY DUE TO THE STRATUS IMPACT. [DISC]

The upper level trough impacting the Pacific Northwest and Northern California will dominate our weather through the holiday weekend, including Monday. That means we'll stay in a cooler, onshore flow regime with clouds along coastal regions at night and morning. With that trough will come a surface cold front with the weaker, tail end of it swinging into Northern California on Saturday. The latest rain arrival based on our high-resolution models: 

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE PAC NW AND NORCAL WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, INCLUDING MONDAY. THAT
MEANS WE`LL STAY IN A COOLER, ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WITH CLOUDS ALONG
COASTAL REGIONS AT NIGHT AND MORNING. WITH THAT TROUGH WILL COME A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THE WEAKER, TAIL END OF IT SWINGING INTO
NORCAL ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST RAIN ARRIVAL BASED ON OUR HI-RES
MODELS: [DISC]

Updated HRRR timing shows a 3pm arrival for NW Sonoma County then spreading southward with the potential for light rain/sprinkles tracking far enough south to hit the SF Metro/peninsula area in the 5–8P window. 

UPDATED HRRR TIMING SHOWS A 3PM ARRIVAL FOR NW SONOMA COUNTY THEN
SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
TRACKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO HIT THE SF METRO/PENINSULA AREA IN THE
5-8P WINDOW. [DISC]

NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] timing shows arrival into NW Sonoma County closer to 4pm then tracking southward with light rain/sprinkles potentially hitting SF Metro/peninsula in the 7pm to midnight window. 

NAM TIMING SHOWS ARRIVAL INTO NW SONOMA COUNTY CLOSER TO 4PM THEN
TRACKING SOUTHWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES POTENTIALLY HITTING SF
METRO/PENINSULA IN THE 7P TO MIDNIGHT WINDOW. [DISC]

Rain amounts, in places that do get rain, remain light with our high-resolution models and the ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] ensemble members… from sprinkles to a few hundredths around the SF Bay Area northward. This weak cold front passage will not be super impactful other than bringing a welcomed spritz of moisture and the need for occasional windshield wipers while driving. 

RAIN AMOUNTS, IN PLACES THAT DO GET RAIN, REMAIN LIGHT WITH OUR HI-
RES MODELS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...FROM SPRINKLES TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AROUND THE SF BAY AREA NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL NOT BE SUPER IMPACTFUL OTHER THAN BRINGING A WELCOMED
SPRITZ OF MOISTURE AND THE NEED FOR OCCASIONAL WINDSHIELD WIPERS
WHILE DRIVING. [DISC]

After the holiday weekend, we're expecting a Tuesday–Wednesday warm up as an upper level ridge develops over the eastern Pacific and then moves inland. The WPC [Weather Prediction Center] 3–7 day cluster analysis shows that the ridge looks well organized when it's still offshore. However, as it moves inland on Wednesday, the clusters don't have solid agreement in its strength or location. Thus, we don't have confidence that this warm up will be notable like we had earlier this week. The NBM continues to show that highs will peak in the mid 80s to low 90s across the interior in that Tuesday–Wednesday timeframe… not the upper 90s to low 100s we just experienced. 

AFTER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WE`RE EXPECTING A TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WARM
UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
THEN MOVES INLAND. THE WPC 3-7 DAY CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
RIDGE LOOKS WELL ORGANIZED WHEN IT`S STILL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY, THE CLUSTERS DON`T HAVE SOLID AGREEMENT
IN ITS STRENGTH OR LOCATION. THUS, WE DON`T HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WARM UP WILL BE NOTABLE LIKE WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE NBM
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THAT TUE-WED TIMEFRAME...NOT THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S WE JUST EXPERIENCED. [DISC]

Moving into the extended forecast, we see an interesting return to a cooler pattern as another upper level low moves into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. Our interest is piqued because both the GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] and ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] ensemble members are hinting at another light rain event around the first weekend of June. We'll be monitoring this to see if the trend remains, especially since some of the forecast rain amounts are around a tenth of an inch in the North Bay. That's considered a "wetting rain" for fuels which means vegetation could moisten up enough that it could delay North Bay from getting into the full brunt of fire season. Stay tuned! 

MOVING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WE SEE AN INTERESTING RETURN TO A
COOLER PATTERN AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW AND
NORCAL. OUR INTEREST IS PIQUED BECAUSE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER LIGHT RAIN EVENT AROUND THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE. WE`LL BE MONITORING THIS TO SEE IF THE TREND
REMAINS, ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME OF THE FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH BAY. THAT`S CONSIDERED A
"WETTING RAIN" FOR FUELS WHICH MEANS VEGETATION COULD MOISTEN UP
ENOUGH THAT IT COULD DELAY NORTH BAY FROM GETTING INTO THE FULL
BRUNT OF FIRE SEASON. STAY TUNED! [DISC]

Aviation. As of 11:55am PDT Friday… for the 18Z [11am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:55 AM PDT FRIDAY...FOR THE 18Z TAFS. [AVIA]

Ceilings are gradually lifting this morning with VFR [Visual Flight Rules] to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] prevailing for most areas. Given the deep marine layer and high clouds overhead clearing of stratus has been a bit slower compared to yesterday. Still expect most areas to reach VFR [Visual Flight Rules], but this may not occur until mid to late afternoon; particularly around Monterey Bay. Expect a quick return of the marine layer by early this evening with another bout of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] to IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions overnight. Some potential for LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings around Monterey Bay but confidence is too low for inclusion in the TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts] at the moment. 

CEILINGS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING THIS MORNING WITH VFR TO MVFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST AREAS. GIVEN THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD CLEARING OF STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REACH VFR, BUT THIS MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON; PARTICULARLY AROUND
MONTEREY BAY. EXPECT A QUICK RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER BY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CEILINGS AROUND MONTEREY BAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT. [AVI2]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]

VICINITY OF KSFO... [AVI2]

Persistent MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings should gradually scatter out by ~20–21Z [1–2pm PDT] with breezy onshore winds developing this afternoon. Expect an early return of low clouds ~02–03Z [7–8pm PDT] this evening with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings again likely. A ceiling will likely persist overnight before scattering out by late morning on Saturday. 

PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT BY ~20-21Z
WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN
EARLY RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS ~02-03Z THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AGAIN LIKELY. A CEILING WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. [AVI2]

KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… scattered clouds in the approach may impact visuals into early afternoon. Otherwise similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE APPROACH MAY
IMPACT VISUALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay. 

MONTEREY BAY... [AVI2]

Prevailing MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings should lift towards VFR [Visual Flight Rules] by early afternoon for most areas. However confidence in VFR [Visual Flight Rules] is lower at KMRY [Monterey CA] and KSNS [Salinas CA] where lower clouds have been slower to erode. Still believe there's a window for partial clearing ~20–22Z [1–3pm PDT] with low clouds likely to rapidly fill back in around 00–03Z [5–8pm PDT] this evening. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] to IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions are expected tonight, with some potential for LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] in the vicinity of KMRY [Monterey CA]. Confidence in this is too low for inclusion in the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] but amendments are possible with future TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] issuances. 

PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TOWARDS VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN VFR IS LOWER AT
KMRY AND KSNS WHERE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE. STILL
BELIEVE THERE`S A WINDOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING ~20-22Z WITH LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY TO RAPIDLY FILL BACK IN AROUND 00-03Z THIS EVENING. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR IN THE VICINITY OF KMRY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF BUT AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 01:18pm PDT Friday… increasing northwest winds this afternoon and evening. Locally strong winds will develop through the Golden Gate, south of Pigeon Point [Pescadero CA] and along the Big Sur coast. These winds will be hazardous to small craft vessels. Expect more active marine conditions late this weekend into early next week with increasingly hazardous winds and seas developing. 

.MARINE...AS OF 01:18 PM PDT FRIDAY...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE, SOUTH OF  PIGEON POINT AND ALONG THE BIG
SUR COAST. THESE WINDS WILL BE  HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT VESSELS.
EXPECT MORE ACTIVE MARINE  CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH  INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...SF BAY [WARN]

Public Forecast: Bingaman; Aviation: SPM; Marine: SPM 

PUBLIC FORECAST: BINGAMAN
AVIATION: SPM
MARINE: SPM [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay CA

27 May 01:55pm PDT

This Afternoon Partly sunny, with a steady temperature around 58°. West wind 9 to 11 mph.
Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46°. WSW wind 6 to 9 mph.
Saturday Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 62°. WSW wind 7 to 11 mph.
Saturday Night Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 46°. WSW wind 5 to 11 mph becoming NW after midnight.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 62°. Breezy, with a NW wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45°. Breezy.
Memorial Day Sunny, with a high near 64°.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45°. Breezy.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 69°.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46°.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 68°.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 65°.
This Afternoon
Partly sunny, with a steady temperature around 58. West wind 9 to 11 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. West southwest wind 6 to 9 mph.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 62. West southwest wind 7 to 11 mph.
Saturday Night
Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 46. West southwest wind 5 to 11 mph becoming northwest after midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 62. Breezy, with a northwest wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Breezy.
Memorial Day
Sunny, with a high near 64.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Breezy.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 69.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 68.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 65.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: