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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 201049 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 201049
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 3:49am PDT Wed Mar 20 2019 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
349 AM PDT WED MAR 20 2019 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Rain showers will persist over the region through the morning before diminishing in coverage this afternoon. Isolated showers may linger across the Central Coast tonight into early Thursday morning yet most locations will remain dry. Another frontal system pushes across the region on Friday with mainly dry weather expected Saturday into Sunday. Unsettled weather returns for the first half of next week along with seasonably cool temperatures. 

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING YET MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 03:48am PDT Wednesday… rain showers are currently spreading inland across much of the region this morning as a negatively tilted mid/upper level trough approaches the coast. Rainfall during the past 6 hours has been greatest over the Santa Cruz Mountains and along the Santa Lucia Range with 0.50" to 1.00" reported. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts range from a few hundredths of an inch to around 0.25". Expecting showers to spread northward through the remainder of the morning before tapering off through the afternoon. While isolated showers may linger into the late afternoon and evening, most areas will see mainly dry conditions. A secondary short-wave disturbance forecast to approach the coast late tonight into Thursday will produce rain showers mainly offshore and over portions of the Central Coast while most areas will remain dry through Thursday night. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:48 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY SPREADING INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST. RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN GREATEST OVER THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE WITH 0.50"
TO 1.00" REPORTED. ELSEWHERE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND 0.25". EXPECTING SHOWERS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST AREAS WILL SEE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. A SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OFFSHORE AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. [DISC]

Another quick moving system will push a frontal boundary through the region on Friday with light rain spreading from north to south. Showers will then linger into Friday night before tapering off Saturday morning. This will result in mainly dry conditions through the first half of Sunday along with slightly warmer daytime temperatures. 

ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. [DISC]

Medium range forecast models and ensemble members continue to suggest a return to unsettled weather conditions during the first half of next week. However, confidence remains low on the details with respect to when, where and how much precipitation to expect. Overall, look for periods of wet weather early next week with the potential for more widespread rainfall and seasonably cool temperatures. 

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE DETAILS
WITH RESPECT TO WHEN, WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION TO EXPECT.
OVERALL, LOOK FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:54pm PDT Tuesday… increasingly strong and gusty winds through the evening, low level wind shear developing nearest the coast with overlap extending north and east across the remaining CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] later this evening. Showers arriving later in the evening into Wednesday. Terminals reporting VFR [Visual Flight Rules] thus far. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:54 PM PDT TUESDAY...INCREASINGLY STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING
NEAREST THE COAST WITH OVERLAP EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINING CWA LATER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER IN THE
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. TERMINALS REPORTING VFR THUS FAR. [AVIA]

An amplifying and negatively tilted 500 mb height trough is approx 100 miles southwest of Monterey County and moving north and will sweep over the area through the evening and overnight. NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] model shows fairly rapid cold air advection, near 7°C cooling at 925 mb and 850 mb levels and thermal troughing embedded with the 500 mb height trough indicating this trough has a fair amount of dynamics and lift with it; expect rapidly changing weather conditions through the evening into the overnight hours. No lightning seen yet in our CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map], but there's a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly late tonight into Wednesday morning. 

AN AMPLIFYING AND NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB HEIGHT TROUGH IS APPROX
100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTEREY COUNTY AND MOVING NORTH AND WILL
SWEEP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NAM MODEL
SHOWS FAIRLY RAPID COLD AIR ADVECTION, NEAR 7 CELSIUS COOLING AT
925 MB AND 850 MB LEVELS AND THERMAL TROUGHING EMBEDDED WITH THE
500 MB HEIGHT TROUGH INDICATING THIS TROUGH HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DYNAMICS AND LIFT WITH IT; EXPECT RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO LIGHTNING SEEN YET
IN OUR CWA, BUT THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… increasingly strong and gusty winds through tonight into early Wednesday morning. Low level wind shear through 15Z [8am PDT] Wednesday. Showers arrive overnight, some heavy. VFR [Visual Flight Rules]-MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] late tonight into Wednesday morning. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] Wednesday with a few showers, gusty winds. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
15Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT, SOME HEAVY. VFR-MVFR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS,
GUSTY WINDS. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]-MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules], low level wind shear otherwise winds occasionally reaching to the ground via momentum transfer. Strong and gusty SE winds in the Salinas Valley into Wednesday morning. Showers arriving overnight into Wednesday morning, heavy at times. Lingering showers and VFR [Visual Flight Rules] Wednesday. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR-MVFR, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OTHERWISE
WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING TO THE GROUND VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
STRONG AND GUSTY SE WINDS IN THE SALINAS VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS ARRIVING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, HEAVY
AT TIMES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND VFR WEDNESDAY. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 03:48am PDT Wednesday… breezy southerly winds this early morning will gradually become more westerly during the day as a front pushes through the waters. A combination of the winds, locally-generated wind-waves, and the west swell will allow for the hazardous sea conditions to continue today, particularly for small vessels. Another west to northwest swell train will arrive over the weekend. 

.MARINE...AS OF 03:48 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
THIS EARLY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
DAY AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COMBINATION OF THE
WINDS, LOCALLY-GENERATED WIND-WAVES, AND THE WEST SWELL WILL ALLOW
FOR THE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY, PARTICULARLY
FOR SMALL VESSELS. ANOTHER WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL TRAIN WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 AM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Rgass; Aviation: Canepa; Marine: Rowe 

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: ROWE [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay CA

20 Mar 3:55am PDT

Overnight Showers. Low around 48°. SE wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 57°. WSW wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night A 20% chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 43°. WSW wind 5 to 15 mph becoming SSE after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday A 20% chance of showers before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58°. ESE wind 5 to 9 mph becoming WSW in the afternoon.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44°. WSW wind around 8 mph.
Friday Rain likely, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 57°. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday Night Rain, mainly before 11pm. Low around 45°. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday A slight chance of showers before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 42°.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Sunday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45°.
Monday Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60°.
Monday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 46°.
Tuesday Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59°.
Overnight
Showers. Low around 48. Southeast wind around 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 57. West southwest wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. West southwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday
A 20 percent chance of showers before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. East southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. West southwest wind around 8 mph.
Friday
Rain likely, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Rain, mainly before 11pm. Low around 45. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 42.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.
Sunday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Monday
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.
Monday Night
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 46.
Tuesday
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: