Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 190247 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 190247 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco California 7:47pm PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 747 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2024 [HEAD] New update. ∨ ...NEW UPDATE... [DISC] Synopsis. Issued at 1:31pm PDT Wednesday September 18 2024 ∨ .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 131 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2024 [DISC] Isolated to scattered rain showers continue into this evening, tapering off from north to south gradually through Thursday afternoon. A warming trend is on tap for by this upcoming weekend and into early next week with temperatures rebounding to near seasonal averages. ∨ ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. [DISC] Update. Issued at 7:36pm PDT Wednesday September 18 2024 ∨ .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 736 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2024 [DISC] A low pressure system continues to churn offshore with just a rogue rain shower over the southernmost coastal waters to show for it. No lightning strikes were recorded within the CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] today. The forecast remains on track with no updates anticipated at this time. ∨ A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CHURN OFFSHORE WITH JUST A ROGUE RAIN SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS TO SHOW FOR IT. NO LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED WITHIN THE CWA TODAY. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. [DISC] Short term. (this evening through Thursday) issued at 1:31pm PDT Wednesday September 18 2024 ∨ .SHORT TERM... (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 131 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2024 [DISC] An upper level low remains off of the North Bay coast at this hour and will continue to drop southward throughout the day before moving onshore over the Central Coast tonight/tomorrow. As such, much of the rainfall from this system will remain light and some locations may not see any rainfall at all! There remains a slight chance of thunderstorms across the North Bay this afternoon before the thunderstorm threat focuses on the southern portion of the Central Coast on Thursday. The threat generally remains less than 15% however, so confidence of thunderstorm development remains low. ∨ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OFF OF THE NORTH BAY COAST AT THIS HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE CENTRAL COAST TONIGHT/TOMORROW. AS SUCH, MUCH OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL AT ALL! THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOCUSES ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL COAST ON THURSDAY. THE THREAT GENERALLY REMAINS LESS THAN 15% HOWEVER, SO CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW. [DISC] Wrap around moisture from the system as it pushes inland will result in the continued rain chances (and low end thunderstorm chances) into tomorrow over the Central Coast but the North Bay and greater San Francisco Bay Area are expected to be dry beyond late this evening. Any thunderstorms that to develop will have the potential to produce isolated, brief downpours. Temperatures both today and tomorrow will be 5–15° below seasonal averages. ∨ WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES INLAND WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES (AND LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES) INTO TOMORROW OVER THE CENTRAL COAST BUT THE NORTH BAY AND GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY BEYOND LATE THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED, BRIEF DOWNPOURS. TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. [DISC] Long term. (Thursday night through next Tuesday) issued at 1:31pm PDT Wednesday September 18 2024 ∨ .LONG TERM... (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 131 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2024 [DISC] Friday afternoon will still be below normal across the region as the upper level trough begins to push further inland. The warm-up doesn't begin until Saturday with near to slightly below normal temperatures. Sunday and into early next week is when temperatures are expected to be slightly above average as high pressure from the eastern Pacific begins to build inland. The marine layer also looks to return as a result with night and morning low clouds likely into next week. Low clouds will the retreat to the coast by the afternoon each day throughout the week. ∨ FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THE WARM-UP DOESN`T BEGIN UNTIL SATURDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO BUILD INLAND. THE MARINE LAYER ALSO LOOKS TO RETURN AS A RESULT WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW CLOUDS WILL THE RETREAT TO THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. [DISC] Aviation. (00Z [5pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 5:08pm PDT Wednesday September 18 2024 ∨ .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 508 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2024 [AVIA] It's VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with high based clouds and widely scattered showers. Patchy low clouds and fog (MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]-LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules]) developing tonight and Thursday morning, improving to VFR [Visual Flight Rules] by late Thursday morning. ∨ IT`S VFR WITH HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG /MVFR-LIFR/ DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. [AVI2] Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]-MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]. Onshore wind near 12 knots [14 mph] decreasing this evening and becoming light northeast Thursday morning, then onshore near 12 knots [14 mph] Thursday afternoon and early evening. ∨ VICINITY OF SFO...VFR-MVFR. ONSHORE WIND NEAR 12 KNOTS DECREASING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING, THEN ONSHORE NEAR 12 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]-MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules], a few passing showers are possible tonight and Thursday. Onshore winds 8–15 knots [9–17 mph], decreasing this evening and becoming light and variable tonight and Thursday morning. Onshore winds 10–15 knots [12–17 mph] Thursday afternoon and early evening. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR-MVFR, A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONSHORE WINDS 8 TO 15 KNOTS, DECREASING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. [AVI2] Marine. (tonight through next Monday) issued at 4:58pm PDT Wednesday September 18 2024 ∨ .MARINE... (TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) ISSUED AT 458 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2024 [AVIA] Northwesterly breezes will be gentle to moderate, increasing to become moderate to fresh over the outer waters by Thursday. Seas will be moderate, building to become rough in the outer waters by Thursday. There's up to a 15% chance for thunderstorms through tomorrow which could produce lightning, locally heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds, and small hail. ∨ NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE, INCREASING TO BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE, BUILDING TO BECOME ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS BY THURSDAY. THERE`S UP TO A 15% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL. [AVI2] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM. [WARN]
SHORT TERM...RGASS LONG TERM....RGASS AVIATION...CANEPA MARINE...SARMENT [WRN2] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC] |
Point Forecast Half Moon Bay CA 18 Sep 08:35pm PDT Tonight Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°. Light west wind. Thursday Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63°. Calm wind becoming SW 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Thursday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 52°. WSW wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 64°. Calm wind becoming WSW 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. WSW wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69°. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52°. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 74°. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54°. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78°. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 56°. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 76°. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54°. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69°. Tonight Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Light west wind. Thursday Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Thursday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 52. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 64. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 74. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 76. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. |
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