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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 170813 AFDMTR ∨

FXUS66 KMTR 170813
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 12:13am PST Sat Jan 17 2026 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1213 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2026 [HEAD]

New short term, long term. ∨

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... [DISC]

Key Messages… updated at 12:05am PST Sat Jan 17 2026 ∨

.KEY MESSAGES...
UPDATED AT 1205 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2026 [DISC]

- dry weather, cool mornings, and warm afternoons continue ∨

 - DRY WEATHER, COOL MORNINGS, AND WARM AFTERNOONS CONTINUE [DISC]

Short term. Issued at 12:05am PST Sat Jan 17 2026 (today and tonight) ∨

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT) [DISC]

Conditions are similar to last night, with a few subtle changes. First, the marine stratus has peeled off the coast. This is thanks to robust offshore flow. The SFO [San Francisco CA]-Winnemucca [NW Nevada] gradient is –12.3 mb, quite a bit stronger than most models have it analyzed. Mt St Helena is reporting ENE winds gusting as high as 47 mph tonight. This and several other mountain stations would actually be in Red Flag criteria if the annual grasses were cured. This offshore gradient will weaken over the next 36 hours as both the strong surface high over the Rockies and the trough over California weaken. The other difference tonight is high clouds moving in from the south. These will help moderate both the min and max temperature by a degree or two and bring some color to the sunrise and sunset today. Otherwise it will feel very similar to yesterday. ∨

CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, WITH A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES.
FIRST, THE MARINE STRATUS HAS PEELED OFF THE COAST. THIS IS THANKS
TO ROBUST OFFSHORE FLOW. THE SFO-WMC GRADIENT IS -12.3 MB, QUITE A
BIT STRONGER THAN MOST MODELS HAVE IT ANALYZED. MT. ST. HELENA IS
REPORTING ENE WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 47 MPH TONIGHT. THIS AND
SEVERAL OTHER MOUNTAIN STATIONS WOULD ACTUALLY BE IN RED FLAG
CRITERIA IF THE ANNUAL GRASSES WERE CURED. THIS OFFSHORE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS BOTH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKEN. THE OTHER
DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THESE
WILL HELP MODERATE BOTH THE MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURE BY A DEGREE OR
TWO AND BRING SOME COLOR TO THE SUNRISE AND SUNSET TODAY. OTHERWISE
IT WILL FEEL VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. [DISC]

Long term. Issued at 12:05am PST Sat Jan 17 2026 (Sunday through Friday) ∨

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) [DISC]

Sunday will be a rinse and repeat of Saturday. Expect a chilly morning, warm afternoon and some high clouds through the day. This pattern will stick around as the strong ridging that extends all the way to the jet stream will continue through the week. There is a chance for a short wave trough at 500 mb to bring some very light rain Thursday–Friday, but it's looking more and more like that will just be a cloud maker. That little trough is important though. It's the first domino to fall in the gradual pattern change. The 500 mb flow will likely become more zonal by next weekend. There's significant disagreement in the ensemble clusters after next weekend, but some solutions bring a legitimate troughing pattern and possible wet weather back for the last week of January. The 00Z [4pm PST] ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] ensemble iqr has between 1.0–2.5" of rain from the 27th to the 31st at SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨

SUNDAY WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHILLY
MORNING, WARM AFTERNOON AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL STICK AROUND AS THE STRONG RIDGING THAT EXTENDS ALL THE
WAY TO THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB TO BRING SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN THU-FRI, BUT IT`S LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THAT WILL JUST
BE A CLOUD MAKER. THAT LITTLE TROUGH IS IMPORTANT THOUGH. IT`S
THE FIRST DOMINO TO FALL IN THE GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE. THE 500 MB
FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ZONAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE`S
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AFTER NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT SOME SOLUTIONS BRING A LEGITIMATE TROUGHING PATTERN
AND POSSIBLE WET WEATHER BACK FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY. THE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE IQR HAS BETWEEN 1.0-2.5" OF RAIN FROM THE 27TH
TO THE 31ST AT SFO. [DISC]

Aviation. (06Z [10pm PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 9:32pm PST Friday Jan 16 2026 ∨

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 932 PM PST FRI JAN 16 2026 [AVIA]

Surface high pressure continues over the Great Basin resulting in offshore winds. The Winnemucca [NW Nevada]-SFO [San Francisco CA] pressure gradient is 12.8 mb and SAC [Sacramento CA]-SFO [San Francisco CA] is 0.6 mb. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] continues in the 06Z [10pm PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts] except for areas of hazy conditions reducing surface (and slantwise visibility especially at sunrise/sunset) visibility to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]. Patchy fog (VLIFR [Very Low Instrument Flight Rules]-IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]) also developing tonight and Saturday morning. ∨

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN
OFFSHORE WINDS. THE WMC-SFO PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 12.8 MB AND SAC-SFO
IS 0.6 MB. VFR CONTINUES IN THE 06Z TAFS EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF HAZY
CONDITIONS REDUCING SURFACE (AND SLANTWISE VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY AT
SUNRISE/SUNSET) VISIBILITY TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG /VLIFR-IFR/ ALSO
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Mainly light wind. ∨

VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. MAINLY LIGHT WIND. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… slantwise visibility may be reduced especially at sunrise/sunset, otherwise similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SLANTWISE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED ESPECIALLY
AT SUNRISE/SUNSET, OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Winds becoming east to southeast 5–10 knots [6–12 mph] tonight and Saturday morning, shifting to onshore 5–10 knots [6–12 mph] late Saturday afternoon. Winds shifting to east to southeast 5–10 knots [6–12 mph] Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ∨

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO
10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO ONSHORE 5 TO 10
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST
5 TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

Marine. (tonight through next Thursday) issued at 8:03pm PST Friday Jan 16 2026 ∨

.MARINE...
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 803 PM PST FRI JAN 16 2026 [AVIA]

Dry weather will continue through the middle of next week. Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will result in gentle offshore breezes. Light seas continue into early next week before the next round of long period swell arrives and brings light to moderate seas. ∨

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN GENTLE OFFSHORE
BREEZES. LIGHT SEAS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES AND BRINGS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS. [AVI2]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

California: none.
Pacific Ocean: none. ∨

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE. [WARN]

Short term…flynn long term…flynn aviation…Canepa marine…Canepa ∨

SHORT TERM...FLYNN
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA [WRN2]

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 170813 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 170813 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco California 12:13am PST Sat Jan 17 2026 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 1213 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2026 [HEAD] New short term, long term. ∨ ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... [DISC] Key Messages… updated at 12:05am PST Sat Jan 17 2026 ∨ .KEY MESSAGES... UPDATED AT 1205 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2026 [DISC] - dry weather, cool mornings, and warm afternoons continue ∨ - DRY WEATHER, COOL MORNINGS, AND WARM AFTERNOONS CONTINUE [DISC] Short term. Issued at 12:05am PST Sat Jan 17 2026 (today and tonight) ∨ .SHORT TERM... ISSUED AT 1205 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2026 (TODAY AND TONIGHT) [DISC] Conditions are similar to last night, with a few subtle changes. First, the marine stratus has peeled off the coast. This is thanks to robust offshore flow. The SFO [San Francisco CA]-Winnemucca [NW Nevada] gradient is –12.3 mb, quite a bit stronger than most models have it analyzed. Mt St Helena is reporting ENE winds gusting as high as 47 mph tonight. This and several other mountain stations would actually be in Red Flag criteria if the annual grasses were cured. This offshore gradient will weaken over the next 36 hours as both the strong surface high over the Rockies and the trough over California weaken. The other difference tonight is high clouds moving in from the south. These will help moderate both the min and max temperature by a degree or two and bring some color to the sunrise and sunset today. Otherwise it will feel very similar to yesterday. ∨ CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, WITH A FEW SUBTLE CHANGES. FIRST, THE MARINE STRATUS HAS PEELED OFF THE COAST. THIS IS THANKS TO ROBUST OFFSHORE FLOW. THE SFO-WMC GRADIENT IS -12.3 MB, QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN MOST MODELS HAVE IT ANALYZED. MT. ST. HELENA IS REPORTING ENE WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 47 MPH TONIGHT. THIS AND SEVERAL OTHER MOUNTAIN STATIONS WOULD ACTUALLY BE IN RED FLAG CRITERIA IF THE ANNUAL GRASSES WERE CURED. THIS OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS BOTH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WEAKEN. THE OTHER DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THESE WILL HELP MODERATE BOTH THE MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURE BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND BRING SOME COLOR TO THE SUNRISE AND SUNSET TODAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL FEEL VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. [DISC] Long term. Issued at 12:05am PST Sat Jan 17 2026 (Sunday through Friday) ∨ .LONG TERM... ISSUED AT 1205 AM PST SAT JAN 17 2026 (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) [DISC] Sunday will be a rinse and repeat of Saturday. Expect a chilly morning, warm afternoon and some high clouds through the day. This pattern will stick around as the strong ridging that extends all the way to the jet stream will continue through the week. There is a chance for a short wave trough at 500 mb to bring some very light rain Thursday–Friday, but it's looking more and more like that will just be a cloud maker. That little trough is important though. It's the first domino to fall in the gradual pattern change. The 500 mb flow will likely become more zonal by next weekend. There's significant disagreement in the ensemble clusters after next weekend, but some solutions bring a legitimate troughing pattern and possible wet weather back for the last week of January. The 00Z [4pm PST] ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] ensemble iqr has between 1.0–2.5" of rain from the 27th to the 31st at SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SUNDAY WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHILLY MORNING, WARM AFTERNOON AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL STICK AROUND AS THE STRONG RIDGING THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB TO BRING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN THU-FRI, BUT IT`S LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THAT WILL JUST BE A CLOUD MAKER. THAT LITTLE TROUGH IS IMPORTANT THOUGH. IT`S THE FIRST DOMINO TO FALL IN THE GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE. THE 500 MB FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ZONAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE`S SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AFTER NEXT WEEKEND, BUT SOME SOLUTIONS BRING A LEGITIMATE TROUGHING PATTERN AND POSSIBLE WET WEATHER BACK FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE IQR HAS BETWEEN 1.0-2.5" OF RAIN FROM THE 27TH TO THE 31ST AT SFO. [DISC] Aviation. (06Z [10pm PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 9:32pm PST Friday Jan 16 2026 ∨ .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 932 PM PST FRI JAN 16 2026 [AVIA] Surface high pressure continues over the Great Basin resulting in offshore winds. The Winnemucca [NW Nevada]-SFO [San Francisco CA] pressure gradient is 12.8 mb and SAC [Sacramento CA]-SFO [San Francisco CA] is 0.6 mb. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] continues in the 06Z [10pm PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts] except for areas of hazy conditions reducing surface (and slantwise visibility especially at sunrise/sunset) visibility to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]. Patchy fog (VLIFR [Very Low Instrument Flight Rules]-IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]) also developing tonight and Saturday morning. ∨ SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT BASIN RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WINDS. THE WMC-SFO PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 12.8 MB AND SAC-SFO IS 0.6 MB. VFR CONTINUES IN THE 06Z TAFS EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF HAZY CONDITIONS REDUCING SURFACE (AND SLANTWISE VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY AT SUNRISE/SUNSET) VISIBILITY TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG /VLIFR-IFR/ ALSO DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. [AVI2] Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Mainly light wind. ∨ VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. MAINLY LIGHT WIND. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… slantwise visibility may be reduced especially at sunrise/sunset, otherwise similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SLANTWISE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED ESPECIALLY AT SUNRISE/SUNSET, OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Winds becoming east to southeast 5–10 knots [6–12 mph] tonight and Saturday morning, shifting to onshore 5–10 knots [6–12 mph] late Saturday afternoon. Winds shifting to east to southeast 5–10 knots [6–12 mph] Saturday night and early Sunday morning. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO ONSHORE 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. [AVI2] Marine. (tonight through next Thursday) issued at 8:03pm PST Friday Jan 16 2026 ∨ .MARINE... (TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 803 PM PST FRI JAN 16 2026 [AVIA] Dry weather will continue through the middle of next week. Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will result in gentle offshore breezes. Light seas continue into early next week before the next round of long period swell arrives and brings light to moderate seas. ∨ DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN GENTLE OFFSHORE BREEZES. LIGHT SEAS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES AND BRINGS LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. [AVI2] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories California: none. Pacific Ocean: none. ∨ .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. [WARN] Short term…flynn long term…flynn aviation…Canepa marine…Canepa ∨ SHORT TERM...FLYNN LONG TERM....FLYNN AVIATION...CANEPA MARINE...CANEPA [WRN2] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, x, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA X.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]	Point Forecast Half Moon Bay CA 17 Jan 01:35am PST Overnight Mostly clear, with a low around 49°. NE wind around 7 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66°. NE wind 7 to 10 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°. ENE wind around 6 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66°. ENE wind 7 to 9 mph. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47°. NE wind around 5 mph. M.L.King Day Sunny, with a high near 64°. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46°. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 64°. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 46°. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63°. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 60°. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°. Overnight Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 7 to 10 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. East northeast wind around 6 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. East northeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Northeast wind around 5 mph. M.L.King Day Sunny, with a high near 64. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 64. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
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