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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 282012 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 282012
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 12:12pm PST Tue Jan 28 2025 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1212 PM PST TUE JAN 28 2025 [HEAD]

New synopsis, short term, long term.  

...NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... [DISC]

Synopsis. Issued at 12:11pm PST Tuesday Jan 28 2025 

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM PST TUE JAN 28 2025 [DISC]

High pressure will dominate the region leading to chilly mornings and mild days through Thursday. Coastal fog and stratus will attempt to return tonight and may penetrate into some valleys. A pattern change is looking likely, which may bring rain to the mainly the North Bay this weekend. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION LEADING TO CHILLY MORNINGS
AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY.  COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL
ATTEMPT TO RETURN TONIGHT AND MAY PENETRATE INTO SOME VALLEYS. A
PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING LIKELY, WHICH MAY BRING RAIN TO THE MAINLY
THE NORTH BAY THIS WEEKEND. [DISC]

Short term. (this evening through Wednesday) issued at 12:11pm PST Tuesday Jan 28 2025 

.SHORT TERM...
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM PST TUE JAN 28 2025 [DISC]

Not much has changed to the ongoing forecast this afternoon. Temperatures today are expected to top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s with mainly clear sky conditions. However, low clouds are forecast to return to coastal areas and into the adjacent valleys overnight. This will help limit overnight cooling, however we have high confidence the interior will remain cold. Thus, a Freeze Warning has been posted from 1am to 9am Wednesday for interior Central Coast (including the southern Salinas Valley) and southern East Bay hills/mountains. A Frost Advisory is in place for the same time as the Freeze Warning for interior North Bay, northern Salinas Valley, and Santa Clara Valley (excluding the city of San Jose). 

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS AND INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING, HOWEVER WE HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN COLD. THUS, A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR INTERIOR
CENTRAL COAST (INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY) AND SOUTHERN
EAST BAY HILLS/MOUNTAINS. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE SAME
TIME AS THE FREEZE WARNING FOR INTERIOR NORTH BAY, NORTHERN SALINAS
VALLEY, AND SANTA CLARA VALLEY (EXCLUDING THE CITY OF SAN JOSE). [DISC]

Wednesday will be a bit tricky with respect to forecast maximum temperatures as areas that do have low clouds develop will be slower to warm. That said, the current forecast has high temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s in coastal areas and upper 50s to near 60° across the interior. 

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AS AREAS THAT DO HAVE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP WILL BE SLOWER
TO WARM. THAT SAID, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S IN COASTAL AREAS AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. [DISC]

Long term. (Wednesday night through next Monday) issued at 12:11pm PST Tuesday Jan 28 2025 

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM PST TUE JAN 28 2025 [DISC]

An Omega [term used to describe vertical motion in the atmosphere] blocking pattern should persist through at least Thursday with a trough developing over the Pacific Northwest beginning to flatten the ridge by Friday. This is when the pattern shift will begin to bring rain chances to the region. However, the latest forecast (similar to previous runs) is putting the main focus over the North Bay with respect to rainfall from Friday through the weekend. The latest ensemble guidance has more zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] over the Bay Area and Central Coast, while upper level troughing is observed over the Pacific Northwest. Thus, the deeper moisture tap will be across the North Bay and points northward. 

AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL
BEGIN TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
FORECAST (SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS) IS PUTTING THE MAIN FOCUS OVER
THE NORTH BAY WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST, WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUS, THE DEEPER MOISTURE TAP WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND POINTS NORTHWARD. [DISC]

The zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] will be kicked southward as a mid/upper level low drops southward just off of the Pacific Northwest coast by Monday and Tuesday, this will bright more widespread rain the areas south of the Golden Gate and across the Central Coast. There remains a great deal of uncertainty beyond Monday, so expect the forecast to change in the coming days and as we get closer to the weekend. 

THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE KICKED SOUTHWARD AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTHWARD JUST OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, THIS WILL BRIGHT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THE AREAS SOUTH
OF THE GOLDEN GATE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE REMAINS A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MONDAY, SO EXPECT THE FORECAST TO
CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. [DISC]

Aviation. (18Z [10am PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 10:56am PST Tuesday Jan 28 2025 

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM PST TUE JAN 28 2025 [AVIA]

Cloud cover and fog continues to erode leading to widespread VFR [Visual Flight Rules] and light to moderate winds this afternoon lasting into the evening. Lower ceilings move onto the coast line in the early evening and become widespread into the late night as winds become light and variable. Visibilities reduce as mist and fog form into the late night and early Wednesday. Cloud cover and fog begins to erode late Wednesday morning but ceilings could linger in favored spots into the afternoon. 

CLOUD COVER AND FOG CONTINUES TO ERODE LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING.
LOWER CIGS MOVE ONTO THE COAST LINE IN THE EARLY EVENING AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD INTO THE LATE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
VISIBILITIES REDUCE AS MIST AND FOG FORM INTO THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER AND FOG BEGINS TO ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT CIGS COULD LINGER IN FAVORED SPOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lasts into the night with light to moderate west winds. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings fill around the SF Bay into the late night, with moments of IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings into Wednesday morning. Ceilings begin to scatter into Wednesday afternoon as moderate west winds build. 

VICINITY OF SFO...VFR LASTS INTO THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WEST WINDS. MVFR CIGS FILL AROUND THE SF BAY INTO THE LATE NIGHT,
WITH MOMENTS OF IFR CIGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CIGS BEGIN TO
SCATTER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODERATE WEST WINDS BUILD. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] lasts into the evening. Moderate northwest winds build this afternoon. As winds reduce into the evening, MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings build along the coast and move inland, filling over in the early evening and SNS [Salinas CA] after nightfall. Ceilings fall to IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] levels around the Monterey Bay overnight and into Wednesday morning, with some reduced visibilities. Ceilings begin to lift into the late morning, and scatter at SNS [Salinas CA], but MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings will linger at MRY [Monterey CA]

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR LASTS INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BUILD THIS AFTERNOON. AS WINDS REDUCE INTO THE
EVENING, MVFR CIGS BUILD ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND, FILLING
OVER IN THE EARLY EVENING AND SNS AFTER NIGHTFALL. CIGS FALL TO IFR
LEVELS AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES. CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE LATE
MORNING, AND SCATTER AT SNS, BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT MRY. [AVI2]

Marine. (today through Sunday) issued at 8:40am PST Tuesday Jan 28 2025 

.MARINE...
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 AM PST TUE JAN 28 2025 [AVIA]

Expect light to moderate winds and light seas through Friday. Unsettled weather returns Friday into next week as an upper level low brings gusty conditions to the northern waters and widespread rain over the waters. 

EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LIGHT SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW BRINGS GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN OVER THE WATERS. [AVI2]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • California: Frost Advisory from 1am to 9am PST Wednesday for CAZ504–506–513–528. 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ504-506-
513-528. [WARN]
  • Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for CAZ504–506–508–510–512>518–528>530. 
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR CAZ504-506-508-510-512>518-528>530. [WRN2]
  • Freeze Warning from 1am to 9am PST Wednesday for CAZ514–516>518. 
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ514-
516>518. [WRN2]
  • Pacific Ocean: none. 
PZ...NONE. [WRN2]
  • Short term…rgass long term…rgass aviation…murdock marine…murdock 
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK [WRN2]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay CA

28 Jan 02:15pm PST

This Afternoon Mostly sunny, with a high near 55°. West wind around 6 mph.
Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42°. Light west wind.
Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 53°. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42°. Calm wind.
Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 55°. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43°.
Friday A 50% chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58°.
Friday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 49°.
Saturday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61°.
Saturday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°.
Sunday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61°.
Sunday Night A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Monday A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 60°.
This Afternoon
Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. West wind around 6 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Light west wind.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Calm wind.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 55. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58.
Friday Night
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 49.
Saturday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.
Saturday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Sunday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.
Sunday Night
A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 48.
Monday
A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 60.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: