Area Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 060620 AFDMTR ∨
FXUS66 KMTR 060620 AFDMTR [HEAD]
National Weather Service San Francisco California 11:20pm PDT Mon Jun 5 2023 ∨
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 1120 PM PDT MON JUN 5 2023 [HEAD]
New aviation. ∨
...NEW AVIATION... [DISC]
Synopsis. Issued at 2:18pm PDT Monday June 5 2023 ∨
.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 218 PM PDT MON JUN 5 2023 [DISC]
An upper level weather system off of Southern California will continue to result in isolated to scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through at least Tuesday morning. While a few may linger into Wednesday, drier conditions are expected for the latter part of the week with temperatures remain below seasonal averages. ∨
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE A FEW MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. [DISC]
Update. Issued at 8:45pm PDT Monday June 5 2023 ∨
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 845 PM PDT MON JUN 5 2023 [DISC]
The first batch of storms have passed but chances will continue into the night with another line of convection moving through the SAC [Sacramento CA] Valley into the Bay Area and Central Coast. Chances look to be more miss than hit, but individual cells can still produce locally hazardous weather. ∨
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS HAVE PASSED BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE SAC VALLEY INTO THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. CHANCES LOOK TO BE MORE MISS THAN HIT, BUT INDIVIDUAL CELLS CAN STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER. [DISC]
Short term. (this evening through Tuesday) issued at 2:18pm PDT Monday June 5 2023 ∨
.SHORT TERM... (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 218 PM PDT MON JUN 5 2023 [DISC]
The center of a mid/upper level system is currently positioned off of the Southern California coast near the channel islands. With this position, deep moisture is advecting counter-clockwise around the center of the low reaching as far north as the Central Coast and Monterey Bay. As such, isolated to scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed largely off of the Big Sur coastline and across the Monterey Bay. Meanwhile, most inland areas remain dry as of this writing. The mid/upper level system is forecast to linger and shift slightly northward toward the Central Coast throughout the remainder of the day. This will result in the potential for additional rain showers and isolated thunderstorms into the afternoon and evening. ∨
THE CENTER OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. WITH THIS POSITION, DEEP MOISTURE IS ADVECTING COUNTER- CLOCKWISE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL COAST AND MONTEREY BAY. AS SUCH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LARGELY OFF OF THE BIG SUR COASTLINE AND ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY. MEANWHILE, MOST INLAND AREAS REMAIN DRY AS OF THIS WRITING. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LINGER AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. [DISC]
As the low shifts northward, both moisture and instability will increase and spread over the San Francisco Bay Area late tonight into early Tuesday. While the greatest potential for convection remains over the Central Coast with a 20–40% probability, the San Francisco Bay Area will see chances increase to 15–30% overnight. Overall, it is during the overnight in which the entire region will see the greatest potential for convection given the proximity to the aforementioned mid/upper level low and associated instability. ∨
AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD, BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL COAST WITH A 20-40% PROBABILITY, THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WILL SEE CHANCES INCREASE TO 15-30% OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, IT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN WHICH THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY. [DISC]
Precipitation with this system is forecast to be generally less than 0.10" across the San Francisco Bay Area with 0.10–0.20" for areas around the Central Coast. However, given the spotty nature of any convection that does develop, some areas may remain dry throughout this weather "event". On the flip side, any convective showers or thunderstorms that move over any given area will be capable of producing greater amounts in the range of 0.25–0.50", especially if training over any given area. ∨
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10" ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH 0.10-0.20" FOR AREAS AROUND THE CENTRAL COAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP, SOME AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THIS WEATHER "EVENT". ON THE FLIP SIDE, ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER ANY GIVEN AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 0.25-0.50", ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OVER ANY GIVEN AREA. [DISC]
Thunderstorm safety: please remember to take shelter if you hear thunder or see lightning as you will be withing striking distance. It's likely that small hail could accompany these thunderstorms along with gusty winds and brief heavier downpours. All these factors add up to dangerous road conditions, so slow down and give extra space between vehicles. ∨
THUNDERSTORM SAFETY: PLEASE REMEMBER TO TAKE SHELTER IF YOU HEAR THUNDER OR SEE LIGHTNING AS YOU WILL BE WITHING STRIKING DISTANCE. IT`S LIKELY THAT SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. ALL THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS, SO SLOW DOWN AND GIVE EXTRA SPACE BETWEEN VEHICLES. [DISC]
Long term. (Wednesday through Sunday) issued at 2:55am PDT Monday June 5 2023 ∨
.LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM PDT MON JUN 5 2023 [DISC]
The upper level low will linger over Southern California as it moves inland for the second half of the week and eventually weakens as it opens up into a broader trough pattern by Thursday/Friday. Cooler than normal temperatures will persist in the extended forecast ranging anywhere from 5–15° below normal. ∨
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER SOCAL AS IT MOVES INLAND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AS IT OPENS UP INTO A BROADER TROUGH PATTERN BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. [DISC]
Extended models (ensemble and deterministic GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] & ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model]) are indicating that another closed upper low could move over California this weekend which may bring additional light rain, but will have to monitor forecast trends to see if this comes to fruition. ∨
EXTENDED MODELS (ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GFS & ECMWF) ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW COULD MOVE OVER CA THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. [DISC]
Aviation. (06Z [11pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 11:19pm PDT Monday June 5 2023 ∨
.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1119 PM PDT MON JUN 5 2023 [AVIA]
A mix of VFR [Visual Flight Rules] and MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions prevail throughout the region, with North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals experiencing the MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings. As the night progress, expect stratus to return causing widespread MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] into early tomorrow morning where conditions improve to VFR [Visual Flight Rules] for most terminals except Monterey Bay, where MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings prevail through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Chances of rain is possible still through the night for some terminals especially within Monterey Bay. Thunderstorm chances are less likely but is still possible. Westerly to southwesterly winds will remain breezy and gusty for most terminals through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Winds are expected to gust up to 16–20 knots [18–23 mph] for some terminals. ∨
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH NORTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS EXPERIENCING THE MVFR CIGS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESS, EXPECT STRATUS TO RETURN CAUSING WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT MONTEREY BAY, WHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CHANCES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE STILL THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR SOME TERMINALS ESPECIALLY WITHIN MONTEREY BAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 16-20 KNOTS FOR SOME TERMINALS. [AVI2]
Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] but will transition to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] after midnight tonight. High confidence that VFR [Visual Flight Rules] returns near 18Z [11am PDT]. Moderate winds become breezy and gusty through tomorrow afternoon. Showers is possible tonight into the morning. ∨
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR BUT WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR RETURNS NEAR 18Z. MODERATE WINDS BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING. [AVI2]
SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]
Monterey Bay terminals… MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions but stratus is expected to lower to IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] levels throughout the night. Conditions will improve tomorrow morning to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]. Winds will become light and variable but will increase to gusty winds by tomorrow afternoon. Expect gusty winds up to 17 knots [20 mph]. ∨
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WILL INCREASE TO GUSTY WINDS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS. [AVI2]
Marine. (tonight through next Saturday) issued at 8:37pm PDT Monday June 5 2023 ∨
.MARINE... (TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 837 PM PDT MON JUN 5 2023 [AVIA]
Gusty winds continue through Wednesday, with the most intense gusts each afternoon and evening creating hazardous conditions for small craft from the Golden Gate to Half Moon Bay and from Santa Cruz Harbor to Point Sur [Big Sur CA]. Chances for thunderstorms lasts through Tuesday morning, especially in the southern waters, with associated gusty and erratic winds, lightning, and small hail possible near storm cells. Winds shift to the northwest on Friday and build through the weekend. ∨
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE MOST INTENSE GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FROM THE GOLDEN GATE TO HALF MOON BAY AND FROM SANTA CRUZ HARBOR TO POINT SUR. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LASTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE NEAR STORM CELLS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. [AVI2]
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ530-535-565. [WARN]
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ545- 560. [WRN2]
SHORT TERM...RGASS LONG TERM....JBB AVIATION...SO MARINE...MURDOCK [WRN2]
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Half Moon Bay CA
06 Jun 01:35am PDT
Overnight A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3am. Some of the storms could produce small hail. Cloudy, with a low around 52°. SSW wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am, then a chance of showers between 9am and noon. Some of the storms could produce small hail. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63°. South wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. SSW wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Wednesday Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 63°. SSW wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. SSW wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°.
Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62°.
Friday Night Cloudy, with a low around 52°.
Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60°.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°.
Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61°.
Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°.
Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63°.
A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3am. Some of the storms could produce small hail. Cloudy, with a low around 52. South southwest wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am, then a chance of showers between 9am and noon. Some of the storms could produce small hail. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. South wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. South southwest wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 63. South southwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. South southwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.
Cloudy, with a low around 52.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63.
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