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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 181253 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 181253
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 5:53am PDT Tue May 18 2021 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
553 AM PDT TUE MAY 18 2021 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Another day of warm inland temperatures while locally breezy conditions develop again this afternoon. A system approaching from the northwest on Wednesday will bring gusty northwest winds from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, along with well below normal temperatures. Gradual warming is forecast from Friday through the weekend. 

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER DAY OF WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES WHILE LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL WARMING IS FORECAST
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 04:12am PDT Tuesday… good early morning from your midnight shift crew. A look at the satellite imagery overnight reveals a significant difference compared to the last several night shifts… drier air. For the past several days, our region has been plagued by the "may gray" marine stratus with low clouds extending across much of our CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map], but there is considerably less coverage tonight. Seeing a patch of stratus along the SF Peninsula coastline with a small patch over the Oakland area in East Bay and a touch of stratus in Marin County that just popped up near and east of Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA]. Farther south, there's a decent solid strip of stratus going around the Monterey Bay from Santa Cruz to Watsonville to Monterey then around the Monterey Peninsula to Carmel-by-the-Sea. Another elongated patch of stratus is filling parts of the Salinas Valley from Salinas to King City and even reaching Paso Robles. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 04:12 AM PDT TUESDAY...GOOD EARLY MORNING
FROM YOUR MIDNIGHT SHIFT CREW. A LOOK AT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVERNIGHT REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL NIGHT SHIFTS...DRIER AIR. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, OUR
REGION HAS BEEN PLAGUED BY THE "MAY GRAY" MARINE STRATUS WITH LOW
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLY
LESS COVERAGE TONIGHT. SEEING A PATCH OF STRATUS ALONG THE SF
PENINSULA COASTLINE WITH A SMALL PATCH OVER THE OAKLAND AREA IN
EAST BAY AND A TOUCH OF STRATUS IN MARIN COUNTY THAT JUST POPPED
UP NEAR AND EAST OF PT REYES. FARTHER SOUTH, THERE`S A DECENT
SOLID STRIP OF STRATUS GOING AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY FROM SANTA
CRUZ TO WATSONVILLE TO MONTEREY THEN AROUND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA
TO CARMEL-BY-THE-SEA. ANOTHER ELONGATED PATCH OF STRATUS IS
FILLING PARTS OF THE SALINAS VALLEY FROM SALINAS TO KING CITY AND
EVEN REACHING PASO ROBLES. [DISC]

The notable decrease in the "may gray" situation is due to drier air that has moved into our region thanks to an upper level ridge. With less cloud coverage this morning, areas under clear skies will be able to warm up a few degrees compared to yesterday. Daytime highs will peak in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s for our inland locations which will be near to a couple of degrees above normal. The rest of our forecast area with more coastal or bay influence will peak in the mid 60s to mid 70s making those highs near to slightly below normal. 

THE NOTABLE DECREASE IN THE "MAY GRAY" SITUATION IS DUE TO DRIER
AIR THAT HAS MOVED INTO OUR REGION THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING, AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WILL BE ABLE TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR
OUR INLAND LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MORE COASTAL
OR BAY INFLUENCE WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S MAKING THOSE
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. [DISC]

The big weather impact today and lingering into Thursday will be the winds. Many folks on social media have commented on the breezy conditions lately and that will develop again this afternoon. Strongest winds will be along the coast as robust NW winds impact those areas and then funnel through gaps in coastal terrain. We could see localized gusts up around 40 mph in our terrain. If you're heading to the beach, the strong NW onshore marine flow will make it windy so grab that windbreaker. Ocean winds just offshore could have gusts of 35–45 mph and winds over the SF Bay and Monterey Bay waters will also gust around 40 mph. 

THE BIG WEATHER IMPACT TODAY AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
THE WINDS. MANY FOLKS ON SOCIAL MEDIA HAVE COMMENTED ON THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS LATELY AND THAT WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS ROBUST NW WINDS IMPACT
THOSE AREAS AND THEN FUNNEL THROUGH GAPS IN COASTAL TERRAIN. WE
COULD SEE LOCALIZED GUSTS UP AROUND 40 MPH IN OUR TERRAIN. IF
YOU`RE HEADING TO THE BEACH, THE STRONG NW ONSHORE MARINE FLOW
WILL MAKE IT WINDY SO GRAB THAT WINDBREAKER. OCEAN WINDS JUST
OFFSHORE COULD HAVE GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH AND WINDS OVER THE SF BAY
AND MONTEREY BAY WATERS WILL ALSO GUST AROUND 40 MPH. [DISC]

Wednesday won't let up on the wind, in fact, things will get more blustery, especially along the coastal areas including the SF Metro and in the hills of our forecast area. A large upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest will be nudging southward into Northern California, tightening up the pressure gradient to create windier conditions. Gusts could range in the 40–50 mph range Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night which looks to be the peak of the event. But it'll still be windy on Thursday, too, just not as strong as on Wednesday. In addition to the winds, a cooler airmass will arrive Wednesday through Thursday putting our daytime highs on a cooler trend again with below normal temperatures as that upper level trough impacts the region. 

WEDNESDAY WON`T LET UP ON THE WIND, IN FACT, THINGS WILL GET MORE
BLUSTERY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING THE SF
METRO AND IN THE HILLS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE PACNW WILL BE NUDGING SOUTHWARD INTO NORCAL,
TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CREATE WINDIER CONDITIONS.
GUSTS COULD RANGE IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. BUT
IT`LL STILL BE WINDY ON THURSDAY, TOO, JUST NOT AS STRONG AS ON
WED. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PUTTING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS ON A COOLER
TREND AGAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THAT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. [DISC]

By Friday, temperatures gently warm through Monday of next week as the upper level low gradually drifts eastward and a high pressure ridge axis sits right along the California coast. 

BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES GENTLY WARM THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS SITS RIGHT ALONG THE CA COAST. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 5:30am PDT Monday… for the 12Z [5am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]. Drier air has kept stratus away from most terminals. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings will be found over KOAK [Oakland CA] as well as KSNS [Salinas CA]/KMRY [Monterey CA] through 15–17Z [8–10am PDT] this morning. Skies will improve to few-scattered at 015–020 after 18Z [11am PDT]. Gusty northwest winds most of Tuesday, lasting into Tuesday night. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:30 AM PDT MONDAY...FOR THE 12Z TAFS. VFR WITH
MVFR. DRIER AIR HAS KEPT STRATUS AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER KOAK AS WELL AS KSNS/KMRY THROUGH
15-17Z THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL IMPROVE TO FEW-SCT AT 015-020
AFTER 18Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY, LASTING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with skies few-scattered at 009–015 lasting through 18Z [11am PDT] with scattered 015 hanging around for most of Tuesday. West winds become mild early Tuesday morning but become gusty again in the late morning. Wind will continue to be gusty for the remainder of the period, expect near AWW [Airport Weather Warning] criteria towards the end of the period. Expect the VFR [Visual Flight Rules] to continue into Tuesday afternoon. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH SKIES FEW-SCT AT 009-015 LASTING
THROUGH 18Z WITH SCT015 HANGING AROUND FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. WEST
WINDS BECOME MILD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT BECOME GUSTY AGAIN IN
THE LATE MORNING. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD, EXPECT NEAR AWW CRITERIA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT THE VFR TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]. Winds stay westerly and mild overnight and into Tuesday morning. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] returns by Tuesday morning as cloud cover thins. Westerly winds look to strengthen into that afternoon with around 20 kt [23 mph] gusts possible. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR. WINDS STAY WESTERLY AND MILD
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR RETURNS BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS CLOUD COVER THINS. WESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO STRENGTHEN INTO THAT
AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 05:32am PDT Tuesday… northwest winds will strengthen today with moderate gusts over the outer waters. Locally stronger winds will be possible near Point Reyes [San Francisco CA] and south of Point Sur [Big Sur CA] by Tuesday as stronger coastal jets set up. These winds will generate steep fresh swell resulting in hazardous seas conditions, particularly for smaller vessels. Winds area wide will continue to strengthen early Wednesday morning, producing gale force gusts in most of the northern and central waters Wednesday afternoon and night. Winds will remain breezy for the remainder of the week. Mixed seas will continue with a moderate northwest swell and a longer period southerly swell. 

.MARINE...AS OF 05:32 AM PDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH MODERATE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR POINT  REYES AND
SOUTH OF POINT SUR BY TUESDAY AS STRONGER COASTAL JETS SET UP.
THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELL RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR SMALLER VESSELS. WINDS
AREA WIDE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
PRODUCING GALE FORCE GUSTS IN MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL AND A LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Today: Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] until 9am GLWPt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 9am Small Craft Advisory…Monterey Bay from 9am Small Craft Advisory…SF Bay from 9am 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 AM
GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 9 AM
SCA...SF BAY FROM 9 AM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Bingaman; Aviation: Dhuyvetter; Marine: Dhuyvetter 

PUBLIC FORECAST: BINGAMAN
AVIATION: DHUYVETTER
MARINE: DHUYVETTER [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay Airport

18 May 07:15am PDT

Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 56°. Breezy, with a NW wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 46°. Breezy, with a NW wind 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 54°. Windy, with a NW wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44°. Windy, with a NW wind 23 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 54°. Windy, with a NNW wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45°. Windy.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 55°.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 46°.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57°.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57°.
Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. Breezy, with a northwest wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Breezy, with a northwest wind 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 54. Windy, with a northwest wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Windy, with a northwest wind 23 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 54. Windy, with a north northwest wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Windy.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 55.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: