Area Forecast Discussion FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 261052 AFDILM ∨ FXUS62 KILM 261052 AFDILM [HEAD] National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 6:52am EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 652 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024 [HEAD] Synopsis. High pressure will build in from the north through Saturday with dry weather expected. A warming trend will develop early next week as the high shifts to off the southeast US coast. ∨ .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. [DISC] Update. Updated temperatures this morning as a significant gradient exists behind a surge of low clouds and cool air advection. Expect clouds to hang around through late morning (possibly into the early afternoon). Additional changes were minor. ∨ .UPDATE... UPDATED TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT EXISTS BEHIND A SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH LATE MORNING (POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON). ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MINOR. [DISC] Near term (through tonight)… quiet weather continues through tonight with high pressure off of the New England coast. Onshore flow will continue today and should keep coastal areas cool with help from low clouds this morning. High Sun angles and thin low clouds should break inland by late morning for a mostly sunny afternoon. Coastal areas may take longer to see sunshine, but partly cloudy skies should dominate the afternoon. Mostly clear tonight with overnight lows in the low and mid 50s. Easterly winds maintain 5–10 mph. ∨ .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOL WITH HELP FROM LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. HIGH SUN ANGLES AND THIN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK INLAND BY LATE MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREAS MAY TAKE LONGER TO SEE SUNSHINE, BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S. EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH. [DISC] Short term (Saturday through Sunday night)… high pressure off of the mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday will shift southward to off of the southeast coast by Sunday night. At the same time, mid to upper ridge will build up the East Coast. Will see a mix of some low clouds and higher clouds mainly associated with moisture convergence in low level onshore flow and weak coastal trough plus minor perturbation in the flow aloft riding over the ridge Saturday night into Sunday morning. May even see some spotty showers, but not including any PCP chances for now. By late Sunday, the high shifts a bit further off the coast with a southerly return flow developing. Temps in the mid 70s on Saturday will push 80 on Sunday. ∨ .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP THE EAST COAST. WILL SEE A MIX OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND HIGHER CLOUDS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGH PLUS MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW ALOFT RIDING OVER THE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. MAY EVEN SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS, BUT NOT INCLUDING ANY PCP CHANCES FOR NOW. BY LATE SUNDAY, THE HIGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER OFF THE COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ON SAT WILL PUSH 80 ON SUN. [DISC] Long term (Monday through Thursday)… as surface high shifts farther off the southeast coast winds will become more S to SW Monday into midweek as ridge aloft remains in place up the East Coast. Will see plenty of sunshine on Monday and Tuesday with temps continuing to warm into midweek as greater westerly component to the flow develops. Expect temps above 80 and into the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday. A shortwave will move through Tuesday night with mainly some clouds before ridge builds back in again Wednesday and Thursday with further height rises and then another shortwave approaches late Thursday. May see enough moisture combining with local effects to produce a few showers midweek, but better chance will come late Thursday into Friday ahead of a cold front. ∨ .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE S TO SW MON INTO MIDWEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE UP THE EAST COAST. WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MON AND TUES WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM INTO MIDWEEK AS GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT TEMPS ABOVE 80 AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED AND THURS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUES NIGHT WITH MAINLY SOME CLOUDS BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AGAIN WED AND THURS WITH FURTHER HEIGHT RISES AND THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE THURS. MAY SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHWRS MIDWEEK, BUT BETTER CHC WILL COME LATE THURS INTO FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. [DISC] Aviation (12Z [8am EDT] Friday through Tuesday)… MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] in warmer air to the south and IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] in cooler air to the north. Low clouds and ceilings will continue for much of this morning. Typical with NE flow, low clouds are slow to dissipate and that is expected today. Sun angles and deeper mixing should scour the low clouds by late morning inland and early afternoon along the coast, becoming VFR [Visual Flight Rules] at all terminals. Maturing boundary layer to produce afternoon cumulus; areas near the coast could see brief MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings as LCLs [Lifting Condensation Levels] hover around 3 kft AGL [Above Ground Level]. Onshore winds today veer gradually throughout the day at 10–15 knots [12–17 mph]. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] tonight as E winds continue, but weaken. ∨ .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR IN WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND IFR IN COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING. TYPICAL WITH NE FLOW, LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND THAT IS EXPECTED TODAY. SUN ANGLES AND DEEPER MIXING SHOULD SCOUR THE LOW CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. MATURING BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CUMULUS; AREAS NEAR THE COAST COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AS LCLS HOVER AROUND 3K FT AGL. ONSHORE WINDS TODAY VEER GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT 10-15 KNOTS. VFR TONIGHT AS E WINDS CONTINUE, BUT WEAKEN. [AVIA] Extended outlook. Predominately VFR [Visual Flight Rules] expected through early next week outside of a chance of morning fog this weekend. ∨ EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE OF MORNING FOG THIS WEEKEND. [DISC] Marine. Through Friday night… a NE surge is currently pushing through the nearshore waters. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are being observed at nearshore buoys and coastal reporting stations. Gusts around 20 are expected this morning and gusts up to 25 knots [29 mph] are possible through the evening. Remaining below Small Craft Advisory thresholds even as seas increase to 4–5 feet. Some improvement is expected late tonight as the gradient begins to relax, remaining choppy however. ∨ .MARINE... THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A NE SURGE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT NEARSHORE BUOYS AND COASTAL REPORTING STATIONS. GUSTS AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS EVEN AS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-5 FEET. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX, REMAINING CHOPPY HOWEVER. [AVIA] Saturday through Tuesday… onshore flow will continue through much of the weekend with winds veering from more of a NE flow to the E and then SE by Sunday, running in the 10–15 kt [12–17 mph] range but diminishing into Sunday. The afternoon sea breeze should keep winds higher each afternoon into late day closer to the coast. Seas will start out 3–4 ft but will diminish to 2–4 ft by Sunday, dropping below 3 ft by Monday as winds shift around to more of a SW to W flow with a greater offshore component to the flow. A longer period easterly swell will mix in. No headlines are expected through the period. ∨ SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING FROM MORE OF A NE FLOW TO THE E AND THEN SE BY SUN, RUNNING IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BUT DIMINISHING INTO SUN. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP WINDS HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON INTO LATE DAY CLOSER TO THE COAST. SEAS WILL START OUT 3 TO 4 FT BUT WILL DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN, DROPPING BELOW 3 FT BY MON AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO MORE OF A SW TO W FLOW WITH A GREATER OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL MIX IN. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. [AVI2] ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. [WARN] Synopsis: ILM; Update: 21; Near Term: 21; Short Term: RGZ; Long Term: RGZ; Aviation: 21; Marine: RGZ/21 ∨ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...21 MARINE...RGZ/21 [CRED] |
Point Forecast Wilmington NC 26 Apr 7:53am EDT Today Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 71°. East wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 56°. East wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73°. East wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 57°. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 76°. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58°. Monday Sunny, with a high near 81°. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 61°. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 83°. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 64°. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 84°. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 64°. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 83°. Today Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 71. East wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 56. East wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. East wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Monday Sunny, with a high near 81. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 61. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 83. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 83. |
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