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FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 271148 AFDILM 

FXUS62 KILM 271148
AFDILM [HEAD]

National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 7:48am EDT Sun May 27 2018 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
748 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Bermuda high pressure will provide warm and humid weather today with isolated showers and thunderstorms becoming numerous this evening. Moisture surging northward from Alberto, will lead to periods of heavy rain late tonight and during Monday and this may result in flooding in some areas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday with perhaps less in the way of wet weather late in the week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM ALBERTO, WILL LEAD TO
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND DURING MONDAY AND THIS
MAY RESULT IN FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH PERHAPS LESS IN THE WAY OF WET WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. [DISC]

Near term (through tonight)… as of 3:00am Sunday… the Bermuda high will shift away from the area through tonight as subtropical storm Alberto moves slowly N across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The key message we want to get across this period is the heavy rain and flood threat that is expected to develop late tonight and through Monday. 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MOVES
SLOWLY N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE KEY MESSAGE WE
WANT TO GET ACROSS THIS PERIOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD
THREAT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON. [DISC]

Mainly isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as heating gets underway today. The seabreeze and Piedmont trough should help to focus the ever present moisture. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms will arrive from S to N this evening and overnight. Average rainfall amounts through Monday could easily reach if not exceed 3–5 inches with the higher amounts favored nearer to the coast. 

MAINLY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS HEATING GETS UNDERWAY TODAY. THE
SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS THE EVER
PRESENT MOISTURE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ARRIVE FROM S TO N THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH MON COULD EASILY REACH IF NOT EXCEED 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FAVORED NEARER TO THE COAST. [DISC]

Precipitable water values will climb to near or above 2.25 inches which per SPC [Storm Prediction Center] climatology is a record for late May at KCHS [Charleston SC]. The excessive rainfall outlook produced by WPC has included the entire forecast area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Model soundings show the moisture deepening through the later portion of today and becoming very deep tonight as tropical plume sets up across the eastern Carolinas. A trough emanating from Alberto is expected to develop NE of the center and up across the offshore waters of the Carolinas today and then pivot onshore tonight. Models are also showing several shortwave troughs advancing N and then NW, well ahead of the subtropical system. Modest elevated instability coupled with strong vertical velocities and increased forcing strongly suggest heavy rain will advance N and into our forecast area this evening and overnight. This becomes problematic given the antecedent conditions as soils are wet to saturated from significant rainfall over the last week to 10 days. Significant ponding is likely to develop across some low-lying and poor drainage areas after dark with the possibility for more serious flooding toward morning and on Monday. A Flash Flood Watch may be required with the afternoon forecast package. Developing widespread nocturnal convection warrants categorical POPs [Probability of Precipitation] tonight. 

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2.25
INCHES WHICH PER SPC CLIMATOLOGY IS A RECORD FOR LATE MAY AT
KCHS. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK PRODUCED BY WPC HAS
INCLUDED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE DEEPENING THROUGH
THE LATER PORTION OF TODAY AND BECOMING VERY DEEP TONIGHT AS
TROPICAL PLUME SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A TROUGH
EMANATING FROM ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NE OF THE CENTER
AND UP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
THEN PIVOT ONSHORE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING N AND THEN NW, WELL AHEAD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND INCREASED FORCING STRONGLY
SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN WILL ADVANCE N AND INTO OUR FA THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS BECOMES PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AS SOILS ARE WET TO SATURATED FROM SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK TO 10 DAYS. SIGNIFICANT PONDING
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOME LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AFTER DARK WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SERIOUS FLOODING
TOWARD MORNING AND ON MON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WARRANTS CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. [DISC]

Greater cloud cover today as compared to Sat should shave a degree or two off of the high temps, especially across South Carolina. We are forecasting mid and upper 80s, but can not rule out a couple 90° temps this afternoon. Highs near and at the beaches will be in the lower 80s due to a seabreeze circulation which will kick south winds up to 15–25 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s. 

GREATER CLOUD COVER TODAY AS COMPARED TO SAT SHOULD SHAVE A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF THE HIGH TEMPS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA. WE ARE FORECASTING MID AND UPPER 80S, BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A COUPLE 90 DEGREE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR AND AT
THE BEACHES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S DUE TO A SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION WHICH WILL KICK SOUTH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. [DISC]

Short term (Monday through Tuesday night)… as of 3:00am Sunday… a wet short term period still in the cards. At the start of this period, precipitation will be ongoing ie categorical POPs [Probability of Precipitation]. A dry punch associated with Alberto may partially push across the forecast area Monday afternoon and evening. This will help to lower the intensity of the precipitation or even temporarily reduce precipitation coverage to widely scattered. Nevertheless, the tropical moisture plume will continue to move across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday before getting shunted east of the forecast area by late Tuesday and/or Tuesday night. At this point, WPC has the forecast area in a slight risk with respect to it's excessive rainfall outlook for day 2 and day 3 12Z [8am EDT] Sun through 12Z [8am EDT] Tuesday. The forecast area will see widespread 2–3 inches this 2 -day short term period with pockets of 3–5 inches possible. If the 3–5 inch totals were more widespread then would lean toward a FFA but at this point will continue to highlight the heavy rain in the local HWO [Hazardous Weather Outlook] for the time being. Overall, as the previous forecast alluded, Monday will basically be a washout with 100% POPs [Probability of Precipitation]. POPs [Probability of Precipitation] will slowly lower to the next categories, ie likely or good chance, come Tuesday into Tuesday night. This slow reduction is due to forecast PWs [precipitable water] still hanging around 2 inches and therefore not taking much to ignite the development of both showers and thunderstorms during this block of time. As for temps, a 10° or less diurnal range of temps expected Monday, followed by an improvement to 10–15° on Tuesday. 

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WET SHORT TERM PERIOD STILL IN THE
CARDS. AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD, PCPN WILL BE ONGOING IE
CATEGORICAL POPS. A DRY PUNCH ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO MAY
PARTIALLY PUSH ACROSS THE FA MON AFTN AND EVENING. THIS WILL
HELP TO LOWER THE INTENSITY OF THE PCPN OR EVEN TEMPORARILY
REDUCE PCPN COVERAGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED. NEVERTHELESS, THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA MON
NIGHT INTO TUE BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST OF THE FA BY LATE TUE
AND/OR TUE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT, WPC HAS THE FA IN A SLIGHT
RISK WITH RESPECT TO IT`S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR DAY2
AND DAY3 12Z SUN THRU 12Z TUE. THE FA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES THIS 2 -DAY SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH POCKETS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. IF THE 3 TO 5 INCH TOTALS WERE MORE WIDESPREAD
THEN WOULD LEAN TOWARD A FFA BUT AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN IN THE LOCAL HWO FOR THE TIME BEING.
OVERALL, AS THE PREVIOUS FCST ALLUDED, MON WILL BASICALLY BE A
WASHOUT WITH 100 POPS. POPS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO THE NEXT
CATEGORIES, IE. LIKELY OR GOOD CHANCE, COME TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS SLOW REDUCTION IS DUE TO PROGGED PWS STILL HANGING AROUND 2
INCHES AND THEREFORE NOT TAKING MUCH TO IGNITE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS BLOCK OF TIME. AS
FOR TEMPS, A 10 DEGREE OR LESS DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS EXPECTED
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN IMPROVEMENT TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON TUE. [DISC]

Long term (Wednesday through Saturday)… as of 3:00pm Saturday… Alberto should begin tracking north from the Gulf Coast on Tuesday. The latest models are in fairly good agreement with keeping the center or remnant low moving north just east of the Mississippi River then northeast toward the Great Lakes and then toward the New England coast. This keeps forecast area in a deep stream of tropical moisture between the Atlantic ridge to the east and Alberto low to the distant West Tuesday through Wednesday night. The PCP water values remain well above normal, on the order of 2–2.3 inches, Tuesday through Thursday morning. Any drier air looks like it may hold off until Thursday afternoon into Friday as winds veer to a more westerly direction in the low to mid levels as Alberto low reaches up near the Great Lakes. Even with the column drying out some on Friday, a very moist atmosphere will remain into Saturday. Small diurnal ranges expected in temps with low 80s most days and low 70s at night. 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ALBERTO SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING NORTH FROM THE
GULF COAST ON TUES. THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH KEEPING THE CENTER OR REMNANT LOW MOVING NORTH JUST EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS KEEPS FORECAST AREA IN A
DEEP STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND ALBERTO LOW TO THE DISTANT WEST TUES THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 2.3 INCHES, TUES THROUGH THURS MORNING. ANY DRIER
AIR LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURS AFTN INTO FRI AS
WINDS VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
AS ALBERTO LOW REACHES UP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. EVEN WITH THE
COLUMN DRYING OUT SOME ON FRI, A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. SMALL DIURNAL RANGES EXPECTED IN TEMPS
WITH LOW 80S MOST DAYS AND LOW 70S AT NIGHT. [DISC]

Overall, expect a very warm and humid air mass in place with clouds and rain hanging on through at least Thursday with some breaks possible by Friday or Saturday. The most widespread rain should be through mid week but the timing and exact areas of heaviest rain will not be possible to say at this point, but expect periods of rain and locally heavy rain through Thursday. The rainfall should be diurnally enhanced, more widespread inland during the day and along the coast overnight. The local forecast area should not see any direct impacts from Alberto, just a continuous tropical feed of moisture for several days. 

OVERALL, EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST THURS WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD
BE THROUGH MID WEEK BUT THE TIMING AND EXACT AREAS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE TO SAY AT THIS POINT, BUT EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THURS. THE
RAINFALL SHOULD BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED, MORE WIDESPREAD INLAND
DURING THE DAY AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ALBERTO, JUST A
CONTINUOUS TROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. [DISC]

Aviation (12Z [8am EDT] Sunday through Thursday)… as of 12Z [8am EDT]… fog will lift at KLBT [Lumberton NC] BT 14Z [10am EDT]… otherwise conditions at the terminals are starting off VFR [Visual Flight Rules] this morning. Tropical airmass will remain in place with isolated to scattered showers from mid-morning through the evening hours, along with temporary MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions. Showers will become more numerous after midnight, with ceilings lowering to IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]. There is potential for a few lightning strikes this afternoon and overnight, but overall coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be isolated, so have included only showers for now. 

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG WILL LIFT AT KLBT BT 14Z...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
AT THE TERMINALS ARE STARTING OFF VFR THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, ALONG WITH TEMPORARY
MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED,
SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SHOWERS FOR NOW. [AVIA]

Extended outlook. On Monday, IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] with periods of heavy rain in showers and some thunderstorms. Tuesday–Thursday, temporary MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] in showers and thunderstorms. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ON MONDAY, IFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. TUE-THU, TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. [DISC]

Marine. Near term (through Sunday)… as of 3:00am Sunday… we have raised a Small Craft Advisory for the waters beginning tonight, first across the southern waters this evening and then expanding to include the northern waters overnight. 

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT, FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVE AND THEN EXPANDING TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. [AVIA]

S to SSE winds will prevail across the waters into this evening with S winds overnight. Wind speeds will be up to 15–20 kt [17–23 mph] beginning this afternoon. Seas will build from 3–4 ft today to 4–7 ft tonight. 

S TO SSE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THIS EVE
WITH S WINDS OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 3 TO 4 FT TODAY
TO 4 TO 7 FT TONIGHT. [AVI2]

The Bermuda high will shift away from the area through tonight as subtropical storm Alberto moves slowly N across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 

THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AS SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MOVES SLOWLY N ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. [AVI2]

Short term (Monday through Tuesday night)… as of 3:00am Sunday… Small Craft Advisory will be ongoing at the start of this period and have it continuing through midday Tuesday. The local waters will be sandwiched between Alberto well west of the forecast area and Bermuda high pressure centered well east of the forecast area. As a result of this funneling effect, have leaned toward the higher side of guidance with respect to wind speeds ie within the 15–25 kt [17–29 mph] range with higher gusts. Looking at a S wind direction initially veering slightly to the SSW-SW Monday night through Tuesday. Windspeeds will be declining during the Tuesday time-frame. Significant seas will peak during Monday with all zones seeing 6 foot, or higher for the waters off Cape Fear and romain respectively. The ongoing SE ground swell will get reinforced from upstream. At the same time, local wind waves Monday combined with the 7–9 second swell, will keep seas at Small Craft Advisory thresholds Monday through Tuesday morning. Seas will fall below Small Craft Advisory thresholds midday Tuesday with winds having already dropped by this time frame. There will be widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms reducing visibility to frequently to 1–3 nm [3 miles] and below 1 nm [1 miles] in heavy rains. 

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SCA WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD AND HAVE IT CONTINUING THRU MIDDAY TUE. THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN ALBERTO WELL WEST OF THE FA AND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE FA. AS A RESULT
OF THIS FUNNELING EFFECT, HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HIER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS IE WITHIN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE WITH HIER GUSTS. LOOKING AT A S WIND DIRECTION INITIALLY
VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE SSW-SW MON NIGHT THRU TUE. WINDSPEEDS
WILL BE DECLINING DURING THE TUE TIME- FRAME. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL PEAK DURING MONDAY WITH ALL ZONES SEEING 6 FOOT, OR HIGHER
FOR THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR AND ROMAIN RESPECTIVELY. THE
ONGOING SE GROUND SWELL WILL GET REINFORCED FROM UPSTREAM. AT
THE SAME TIME, LOCAL WIND WAVES MON COMBINED WITH THE 7 TO 9
SECOND SWELL, WILL KEEP SEAS AT SCA THRESHOLDS MON THRU TUE
MORNING. SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MIDDAY TUE WITH
WINDS HAVING ALREADY DROPPED BY THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING VSBY TO
FREQUENTLY TO 1 TO 3 NM AND BELOW 1 NM IN HEAVY RAINS. [AVI2]

Long term (Wednesday through Thursday)… as of 3:00pm Saturday… southerly winds will continue across the waters through Wednesday, mainly between 5 and 15 kts [17 mph]. The strongest winds may be early Tuesday and then again on Thursday as they veer to a more SW to W direction. The persistent southerly push will keep seas between 3 and 5 ft most of the period, with highest seas most likely to start Tuesday morning and then rising slightly again Thursday night. As winds lighten and veer Wednesday night into Thursday they should drop to the 2–4 ft range. 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH WED, MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE EARLY TUES AND THEN AGAIN ON THURS AS
THEY VEER TO A MORE SW TO W DIRECTION. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHEST SEAS MOST LIKELY TO START TUES MORNING AND THEN RISING
SLIGHTLY AGAIN THURS NIGHT. AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND VEER WED NIGHT
INTO THURS THEY SHOULD DROP TO THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE. [AVI2]

ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • South Carolina: Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for SCZ017–023–024–032–033–039–054>056–058–059.
  • North Carolina: Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for NCZ087–096–099–105>110.
  • Marine: Small Craft Advisory from 8pm this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ254–256.
  • Small Craft Advisory from 2am Monday to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250–252. 
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252. [WARN]

Near Term: RJD; Short Term: DCH; Long Term: RGZ; Aviation: CRM 

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...CRM [CRED]

Point Forecast

Wilmington NC

27 May 6:53am EDT

Today Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84°. South wind 6 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 72°. SE wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Memorial Day Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 80°. South wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Monday Night Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 74°. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 83°. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 73°. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a high near 84°. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 74°. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84°. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74°. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87°. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87°. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Today
Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. South wind 6 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 72. Southeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Memorial Day
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 80. South wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 74. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 83. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: