Wilmington NC Weather Forecast Discussion

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 292311 AFDILM ∨

FXUS62 KILM 292311
AFDILM [HEAD]

National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 7:10pm EDT Thu Jul 29 2010 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
710 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front… which will cross the area late tonight. High pressure will build from the north beginning on Friday… bringing seasonable temperatures and slightly lower humidity for the weekend. The front will wash out just south of the area… allowing Bermuda high pressure to build back into the Carolinas early next week. ∨

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Near term (through tonight)… as of 7pm Thursday… convection across the southeast North Carolina area will be highlighted with the higher POPs [Probability of Precipitation] due to its initiation earlier and it being sustained by the slow inland progression of the sea breeze aided and pushed by outflow boundaries. Convection over coastal ILM [Wilmington NC] SC CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] a bit slower to commence but will increase POPs [Probability of Precipitation] to 30–40 as the afternoon and evening progress. Farther inland… the central Carolinas surface trough will shortly begin to fire convection… with storm motions taking them southeastward. At the moment… have 30–40% POPs [Probability of Precipitation] but may bump to 50% POPs [Probability of Precipitation] being that collisions will occur across the ILM [Wilmington NC] CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] with convection propagating westward along outflows and the sea breeze. Will make determination at press time. Convective activity to last well into the evening… with majority of the activity dissipating by midnight. With the approach of the cold front during the pre-dawn hours of Friday… have backed off with POPs [Probability of Precipitation] and corresponding areal coverage due to the worked over atmosphere. Although have kept isolated or 20% POPs [Probability of Precipitation] in the forecast… especially closer to the coast where the best convective parameters will be available. Overall… anticipate convection to be heavy rain producers with PWs [precipitable water] around 2.25 inches and continued rather slow movements… southeast around 10 kt [12 mph]… although no longer erratic movements like previous days. ∨

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NC AREA WILL
BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH THE HIGHER POPS DUE TO ITS INITIATION EARLIER
AND IT BEING SUSTAINED BY THE SLOW INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE AIDED AND PUSHED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION OVER
COASTAL ILM SC CWA A BIT SLOWER TO COMMENCE BUT WILL INCREASE POPS
TO 30-40 AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESS. FARTHER INLAND...THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS SFC TROF WILL SHORTLY BEGIN TO FIRE CONVECTION...
WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE MOMENT... HAVE
30-40 POPS BUT MAY BUMP TO 50 POPS BEING THAT COLLISIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ILM CWA WITH CONVECTION PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG
OUTFLOWS AND THE SEA BREEZE. WILL MAKE DETERMINATION AT PRESS TIME.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAJORITY OF
THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF FRI...HAVE BACKED OFF WITH POPS AND
CORRESPONDING AREAL COVERAGE DUE TO THE WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE.
ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT ISOLATED OR 20 POPS IN THE FCST...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE
AVAILABLE. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO BE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH PWS AROUND 2.25 INCHES AND CONTINUED RATHER SLOW
MOVEMENTS...SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH NO LONGER ERRATIC
MOVEMENTS LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS. [DISC]

Have bumped tonight's lows by a degree or 3 from current forecast mins due to the delay of the cold front passage and lack of any drier air from making it into the forecast area until after sunrise Friday. ∨

HAVE BUMPED TONIGHTS LOWS BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM CURRENT FORECAST
MINS DUE TO THE DELAY OF THE CFP AND LACK OF ANY DRIER AIR FROM
MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FRI. [DISC]

Short term (Friday through Saturday night)… as of 3pm Thursday… expect the cold front to be near the Carolina coast early Friday morning. High pressure behind the front is weak enough that any change in air mass will be subtle and gradual. Enough mid-level dry air to keep POPs [Probability of Precipitation] below any mention-worthy thresholds through Friday night. MOS [Model Output Statistics] guidance showing a similar discrepancy to the last several days… with GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] MOS [Model Output Statistics] running several degrees warmer than NAM [North Amercian Meso (formerly Eta) model] MOS [Model Output Statistics]… too warm based on recent verification. Have gone with the slightly cooler NAM [North Amercian Meso (formerly Eta) model] MOS [Model Output Statistics]… which gives us lower/mid-90s again. However with dewpoints a few degrees lower… do not expect to reach Heat Advisory thresholds except in the far southern zones and even that is marginal. ∨

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BE SUBTLE
AND GRADUAL. ENOUGH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO KEEP POPS BELOW ANY
MENTION-WORTHY THRESHOLDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING
A SIMILAR DISCREPANCY TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH GFS MOS
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NAM MOS...TOO WARM BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION. HAVE GONE WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM
MOS...WHICH GIVES US LOWER/MID-90S AGAIN. HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS A
FEW DEGREES LOWER...DO NOT EXPECT TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND EVEN THAT IS
MARGINAL. [DISC]

By Saturday the flow turns more southeasterly up through about 800 mb… with mid-level moisture recovering by Saturday night. Low levels still have just enough dry air to limit POPs [Probability of Precipitation] to slight chance at most… rather than biting on the high chance showing up in both NAM [North Amercian Meso (formerly Eta) model] and GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] MOS [Model Output Statistics]. Temps near seasonal normals Saturday and Saturday night and if the NAM [North Amercian Meso (formerly Eta) model] works out we may even get a tolerable day with dewpoints mixing down into the 60s across the North Carolina zones. ∨

BY SATURDAY THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY UP THROUGH ABOUT
800MB...WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERING BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVELS STILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AT MOST...RATHER THAN BITING ON THE HIGH CHANCE SHOWING UP
IN BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS SAT AND SAT
NIGHT...AND IF THE NAM WORKS OUT WE MAY EVEN GET A TOLERABLE DAY
WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NC ZONES. [DISC]

Long term (Sunday through Thursday)… as of 3pm Thursday… the long term forecast will be characterized by generally lower POPs [Probability of Precipitation] and temperatures hovering just above climatology for what will be early August. A cold front will be on the move Sunday with the highest POPs [Probability of Precipitation] inland. Monday and Tuesday will feature dry conditions as surface high pressure dominates. Summertime pattern will develop once again late in the period Wednesday and Thursday as Bermuda high pressure asserts control with the development of a Piedmont trough. Thursday will feature the highest POPs [Probability of Precipitation] overall for the period. ∨

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY GENERALLY LOWER POPS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING JUST ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR WHAT WILL BE EARLY AUGUST. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON
THE MOVE SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INLAND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS CONTROL WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVERALL FOR THE PERIOD. [DISC]

Aviation (18Z [2pm EDT] Thursday through Tuesday)… as of 18UTC [2pm EDT]… current radar and visible satellite images indicate the best cumulus/shower/isolated thunderstorm development is occurring across coastal southeast North Carolina… near ILM [Wilmington NC]. The sea breeze boundary is noted right along the coast near ILM [Wilmington NC] and just inland of cre/myr terminals. The boundary should continue to move slowly inland… with its forward progression being slowed by an increase in the NW flow in the low to mid levels by this evening. Expect showers/isolated thunderstorms mainly near ILM [Wilmington NC] in the short term and will include a temporary group for thunderstorms/MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] visibilities at ILM [Wilmington NC] until 19Z [3pm EDT]. With less coverage expected will indicate VCSH [Rain Showers in the Vicinity]/Cb [cumulonimbus; towering cumulus] in the myr/cre TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Even though the sea breeze boundary will make some headway inland this afternoon… there will be at least a VCSH [Rain Showers in the Vicinity]/Cb [cumulonimbus; towering cumulus] potential at all coastal terminals since the steering flow should advect any development along the boundary back towards the coast. With little large scale forcing inland… will just indicate Cb [cumulonimbus; towering cumulus] in flow/LBT [Lumberton NC] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts] for this afternoon in association with the Piedmont trough to cover thunderstorm potential there. ∨

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18 UTC...CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THE BEST CUMULUS/SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...NEAR ILM. THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS NOTED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST NEAR ILM AND JUST
INLAND OF CRE/MYR TERMINALS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY INLAND...WITH ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION BEING SLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN THE NW FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR ILM IN THE SHORT
TERM...AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS/MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT ILM UNTIL 19Z. WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED WILL
INDICATE VCSH/CB IN THE MYR/CRE TAFS. EVEN THOUGH THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME HEADWAY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A VCSH/CB POTENTIAL AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS SINCE THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ADVECT ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST. WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING INLAND...WILL
JUST INDICATE CB IN FLO/LBT TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH TO COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. [AVIA]

A more organized area of thunderstorms should develop ahead of a cold front northwest of the terminals and move southeast across the terminals by late this evening. Exact timing is difficult to pin down at this time. Also there is a possibility this activity may dissipate to just showers by the time it reaches the coastal terminals as the activity encounters a more stable marine air mass and worked over atmosphere the previous convection. At this time will indicate temporary thunderstorms/MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions 01–03Z [9–11pm EDT] at LBT [Lumberton NC]… VCTS [Thunderstorms in the Vicinity] at flow by 02Z [10pm EDT] and light showers/Cb [cumulonimbus; towering cumulus] at the coastal terminals by 03–04Z [11pm–12am EDT]. After the area of precipitation moves through expect winds to shift to the northwest with VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions at all terminals. ∨

A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BY LATE THIS EVENING. EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN ATTM. ALSO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS ACTIVITY MAY DISSIPATE
TO JUST SHOWERS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE
ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS AND WORKED OVER
ATMOSPHERE THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION. ATTM WILL INDICATE TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS/MVFR CONDITIONS 01-03Z AT LBT...VCTS AT FLO BY
02Z...AND LIGHT SHOWERS/CB AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 03-04Z. AFTER
THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. [AVI2]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] expected after sunrise with northeast winds becoming southeast at myr/cre by mid-morning. With decent lift indicated by models may have some showers develop by mid morning at the coastal terminals with onshore flow but lack of instability may retard development. ∨

VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
AT MYR/CRE BY MID-MORNING. WITH DECENT LIFT INDICATED BY MODELS MAY
HAVE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUT LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY RETARD DEVELOPMENT. [AVI2]

Extended outlook. Widely scattered thunderstorms possible through the period. ∨

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. [DISC]

Marine. Near term (through tonight)… as of 3pm Thursday… weak ridge extension from the Bermuda high will continue into tonight prior to the cold frontal passage after daybreak Friday. The central Carolinas surface trough of low pressure will push closer to the coast this evening resulting in a brief tightening of the surface PG. This will produce SW or WSW winds in the 10–15 knot [12–17 mph] range for much of the evening and night. The 1–2 foot 9–10 second ground swell will mix with the SW wind driven chop and produce 2 to occasional 3 foot seas. ∨

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGE EXTENSION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS EVENING RESULTING IN A BRIEF
TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG. THIS WILL PRODUCE SW OR WSW WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THE 1 TO 2
FOOT 9 TO 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL MIX WITH THE SW WIND DRIVEN
CHOP...AND PRODUCE 2 TO OCCASIONAL 3 FOOT SEAS. [AVIA]

Short term (Friday through Saturday night)… as of 3pm Thursday… look for shifting winds on Friday morning as frontal passage brings the wind around from west early on to north/northeast later in the day. Seabreeze processes will play havoc with the winds near shore… bringing them quickly around to SE on Friday afternoon. Winds will be light enough that seas will be limited to 2–3 ft in a slightly chaotic mix of SE ground swell… residual SW wind chop and the local easterly wind chop. ∨

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LOOK FOR SHIFTING WINDS ON FRIDAY MORNING AS
FROPA BRINGS THE WIND AROUND FROM WEST EARLY ON TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
LATER IN THE DAY. SEABREEZE PROCESSES WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH THE
WINDS NEAR SHORE...BRINGING THEM QUICKLY AROUND TO SE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT SEAS WILL BE LIMITED TO
2-3 FT IN A SLIGHTLY CHAOTIC MIX OF SE GROUND SWELL...RESIDUAL SW
WIND CHOP...AND THE LOCAL EASTERLY WIND CHOP. [AVI2]

By Saturday the high slips offshore and its SE flow will be augmented by the seabreeze. Look for 10–15 kt [12–17 mph] winds and seas still a modest 2–3 ft. ∨

BY SATURDAY THE HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE AND ITS SE FLOW WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY THE SEABREEZE. LOOK FOR 10-15 KT WINDS...AND SEAS
STILL A MODEST 2-3 FT. [AVI2]

Long term (Sunday through Tuesday)… as of 3pm Thursday… east to southeast winds Sunday followed by a northeasterly flow Monday as a cold front passes through. Speeds will remain on the benign side with a range of 10–15 knots [12–17 mph]. Southeast flow develops late Tuesday as Bermuda high pressure reasserts control. The Wavewatch continues to be basically void of any swell so benign wind driven seas of 2–3 feet should prevail. ∨

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE BENIGN SIDE WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
REASSERTS CONTROL. THE WAVEWATCH CONTINUES TO BE BASICALLY VOID OF
ANY SWELL SO BENIGN WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 2-3 FEET SHOULD PREVAIL. [AVI2]

ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

South Carolina: none.
North Carolina: none.
Marine: none. ∨

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE. [WARN]

Near Term: DCH/RJD; Short Term: RAS; Long Term: SHK; Aviation: DCH/MRR ∨

NEAR TERM...DCH/RJD
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR [CRED]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 292311 AFDILM ∨ FXUS62 KILM 292311 AFDILM [HEAD] National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 7:10pm EDT Thu Jul 29 2010 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 710 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010 [HEAD] Synopsis. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front… which will cross the area late tonight. High pressure will build from the north beginning on Friday… bringing seasonable temperatures and slightly lower humidity for the weekend. The front will wash out just south of the area… allowing Bermuda high pressure to build back into the Carolinas early next week. ∨ .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. [DISC] Near term (through tonight)… as of 7pm Thursday… convection across the southeast North Carolina area will be highlighted with the higher POPs [Probability of Precipitation] due to its initiation earlier and it being sustained by the slow inland progression of the sea breeze aided and pushed by outflow boundaries. Convection over coastal ILM [Wilmington NC] SC CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] a bit slower to commence but will increase POPs [Probability of Precipitation] to 30–40 as the afternoon and evening progress. Farther inland… the central Carolinas surface trough will shortly begin to fire convection… with storm motions taking them southeastward. At the moment… have 30–40% POPs [Probability of Precipitation] but may bump to 50% POPs [Probability of Precipitation] being that collisions will occur across the ILM [Wilmington NC] CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] with convection propagating westward along outflows and the sea breeze. Will make determination at press time. Convective activity to last well into the evening… with majority of the activity dissipating by midnight. With the approach of the cold front during the pre-dawn hours of Friday… have backed off with POPs [Probability of Precipitation] and corresponding areal coverage due to the worked over atmosphere. Although have kept isolated or 20% POPs [Probability of Precipitation] in the forecast… especially closer to the coast where the best convective parameters will be available. Overall… anticipate convection to be heavy rain producers with PWs [precipitable water] around 2.25 inches and continued rather slow movements… southeast around 10 kt [12 mph]… although no longer erratic movements like previous days. ∨ .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NC AREA WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH THE HIGHER POPS DUE TO ITS INITIATION EARLIER AND IT BEING SUSTAINED BY THE SLOW INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE AIDED AND PUSHED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION OVER COASTAL ILM SC CWA A BIT SLOWER TO COMMENCE BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO 30-40 AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESS. FARTHER INLAND...THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SFC TROF WILL SHORTLY BEGIN TO FIRE CONVECTION... WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE MOMENT... HAVE 30-40 POPS BUT MAY BUMP TO 50 POPS BEING THAT COLLISIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ILM CWA WITH CONVECTION PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG OUTFLOWS AND THE SEA BREEZE. WILL MAKE DETERMINATION AT PRESS TIME. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS OF FRI...HAVE BACKED OFF WITH POPS AND CORRESPONDING AREAL COVERAGE DUE TO THE WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT ISOLATED OR 20 POPS IN THE FCST...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE AVAILABLE. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH PWS AROUND 2.25 INCHES AND CONTINUED RATHER SLOW MOVEMENTS...SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KT...ALTHOUGH NO LONGER ERRATIC MOVEMENTS LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS. [DISC] Have bumped tonight's lows by a degree or 3 from current forecast mins due to the delay of the cold front passage and lack of any drier air from making it into the forecast area until after sunrise Friday. ∨ HAVE BUMPED TONIGHTS LOWS BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM CURRENT FORECAST MINS DUE TO THE DELAY OF THE CFP AND LACK OF ANY DRIER AIR FROM MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FRI. [DISC] Short term (Friday through Saturday night)… as of 3pm Thursday… expect the cold front to be near the Carolina coast early Friday morning. High pressure behind the front is weak enough that any change in air mass will be subtle and gradual. Enough mid-level dry air to keep POPs [Probability of Precipitation] below any mention-worthy thresholds through Friday night. MOS [Model Output Statistics] guidance showing a similar discrepancy to the last several days… with GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] MOS [Model Output Statistics] running several degrees warmer than NAM [North Amercian Meso (formerly Eta) model] MOS [Model Output Statistics]… too warm based on recent verification. Have gone with the slightly cooler NAM [North Amercian Meso (formerly Eta) model] MOS [Model Output Statistics]… which gives us lower/mid-90s again. However with dewpoints a few degrees lower… do not expect to reach Heat Advisory thresholds except in the far southern zones and even that is marginal. ∨ .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BE SUBTLE AND GRADUAL. ENOUGH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO KEEP POPS BELOW ANY MENTION-WORTHY THRESHOLDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIMILAR DISCREPANCY TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH GFS MOS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NAM MOS...TOO WARM BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION. HAVE GONE WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS...WHICH GIVES US LOWER/MID-90S AGAIN. HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER...DO NOT EXPECT TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND EVEN THAT IS MARGINAL. [DISC] By Saturday the flow turns more southeasterly up through about 800 mb… with mid-level moisture recovering by Saturday night. Low levels still have just enough dry air to limit POPs [Probability of Precipitation] to slight chance at most… rather than biting on the high chance showing up in both NAM [North Amercian Meso (formerly Eta) model] and GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] MOS [Model Output Statistics]. Temps near seasonal normals Saturday and Saturday night and if the NAM [North Amercian Meso (formerly Eta) model] works out we may even get a tolerable day with dewpoints mixing down into the 60s across the North Carolina zones. ∨ BY SATURDAY THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 800MB...WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERING BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVELS STILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST...RATHER THAN BITING ON THE HIGH CHANCE SHOWING UP IN BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND IF THE NAM WORKS OUT WE MAY EVEN GET A TOLERABLE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NC ZONES. [DISC] Long term (Sunday through Thursday)… as of 3pm Thursday… the long term forecast will be characterized by generally lower POPs [Probability of Precipitation] and temperatures hovering just above climatology for what will be early August. A cold front will be on the move Sunday with the highest POPs [Probability of Precipitation] inland. Monday and Tuesday will feature dry conditions as surface high pressure dominates. Summertime pattern will develop once again late in the period Wednesday and Thursday as Bermuda high pressure asserts control with the development of a Piedmont trough. Thursday will feature the highest POPs [Probability of Precipitation] overall for the period. ∨ .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY LOWER POPS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR WHAT WILL BE EARLY AUGUST. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INLAND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS CONTROL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS OVERALL FOR THE PERIOD. [DISC] Aviation (18Z [2pm EDT] Thursday through Tuesday)… as of 18UTC [2pm EDT]… current radar and visible satellite images indicate the best cumulus/shower/isolated thunderstorm development is occurring across coastal southeast North Carolina… near ILM [Wilmington NC]. The sea breeze boundary is noted right along the coast near ILM [Wilmington NC] and just inland of cre/myr terminals. The boundary should continue to move slowly inland… with its forward progression being slowed by an increase in the NW flow in the low to mid levels by this evening. Expect showers/isolated thunderstorms mainly near ILM [Wilmington NC] in the short term and will include a temporary group for thunderstorms/MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] visibilities at ILM [Wilmington NC] until 19Z [3pm EDT]. With less coverage expected will indicate VCSH [Rain Showers in the Vicinity]/Cb [cumulonimbus; towering cumulus] in the myr/cre TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Even though the sea breeze boundary will make some headway inland this afternoon… there will be at least a VCSH [Rain Showers in the Vicinity]/Cb [cumulonimbus; towering cumulus] potential at all coastal terminals since the steering flow should advect any development along the boundary back towards the coast. With little large scale forcing inland… will just indicate Cb [cumulonimbus; towering cumulus] in flow/LBT [Lumberton NC] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts] for this afternoon in association with the Piedmont trough to cover thunderstorm potential there. ∨ .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18 UTC...CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE BEST CUMULUS/SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...NEAR ILM. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS NOTED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST NEAR ILM AND JUST INLAND OF CRE/MYR TERMINALS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND...WITH ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION BEING SLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN THE NW FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR ILM IN THE SHORT TERM...AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS/MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ILM UNTIL 19Z. WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED WILL INDICATE VCSH/CB IN THE MYR/CRE TAFS. EVEN THOUGH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME HEADWAY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A VCSH/CB POTENTIAL AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS SINCE THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD ADVECT ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING INLAND...WILL JUST INDICATE CB IN FLO/LBT TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH TO COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. [AVIA] A more organized area of thunderstorms should develop ahead of a cold front northwest of the terminals and move southeast across the terminals by late this evening. Exact timing is difficult to pin down at this time. Also there is a possibility this activity may dissipate to just showers by the time it reaches the coastal terminals as the activity encounters a more stable marine air mass and worked over atmosphere the previous convection. At this time will indicate temporary thunderstorms/MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions 01–03Z [9–11pm EDT] at LBT [Lumberton NC]… VCTS [Thunderstorms in the Vicinity] at flow by 02Z [10pm EDT] and light showers/Cb [cumulonimbus; towering cumulus] at the coastal terminals by 03–04Z [11pm–12am EDT]. After the area of precipitation moves through expect winds to shift to the northwest with VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions at all terminals. ∨ A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS EVENING. EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ATTM. ALSO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS ACTIVITY MAY DISSIPATE TO JUST SHOWERS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS AND WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION. ATTM WILL INDICATE TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS/MVFR CONDITIONS 01-03Z AT LBT...VCTS AT FLO BY 02Z...AND LIGHT SHOWERS/CB AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 03-04Z. AFTER THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. [AVI2] VFR [Visual Flight Rules] expected after sunrise with northeast winds becoming southeast at myr/cre by mid-morning. With decent lift indicated by models may have some showers develop by mid morning at the coastal terminals with onshore flow but lack of instability may retard development. ∨ VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT MYR/CRE BY MID-MORNING. WITH DECENT LIFT INDICATED BY MODELS MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUT LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY RETARD DEVELOPMENT. [AVI2] Extended outlook. Widely scattered thunderstorms possible through the period. ∨ EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. [DISC] Marine. Near term (through tonight)… as of 3pm Thursday… weak ridge extension from the Bermuda high will continue into tonight prior to the cold frontal passage after daybreak Friday. The central Carolinas surface trough of low pressure will push closer to the coast this evening resulting in a brief tightening of the surface PG. This will produce SW or WSW winds in the 10–15 knot [12–17 mph] range for much of the evening and night. The 1–2 foot 9–10 second ground swell will mix with the SW wind driven chop and produce 2 to occasional 3 foot seas. ∨ .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGE EXTENSION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS EVENING RESULTING IN A BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG. THIS WILL PRODUCE SW OR WSW WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THE 1 TO 2 FOOT 9 TO 10 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL MIX WITH THE SW WIND DRIVEN CHOP...AND PRODUCE 2 TO OCCASIONAL 3 FOOT SEAS. [AVIA] Short term (Friday through Saturday night)… as of 3pm Thursday… look for shifting winds on Friday morning as frontal passage brings the wind around from west early on to north/northeast later in the day. Seabreeze processes will play havoc with the winds near shore… bringing them quickly around to SE on Friday afternoon. Winds will be light enough that seas will be limited to 2–3 ft in a slightly chaotic mix of SE ground swell… residual SW wind chop and the local easterly wind chop. ∨ SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LOOK FOR SHIFTING WINDS ON FRIDAY MORNING AS FROPA BRINGS THE WIND AROUND FROM WEST EARLY ON TO NORTH/NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. SEABREEZE PROCESSES WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH THE WINDS NEAR SHORE...BRINGING THEM QUICKLY AROUND TO SE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT SEAS WILL BE LIMITED TO 2-3 FT IN A SLIGHTLY CHAOTIC MIX OF SE GROUND SWELL...RESIDUAL SW WIND CHOP...AND THE LOCAL EASTERLY WIND CHOP. [AVI2] By Saturday the high slips offshore and its SE flow will be augmented by the seabreeze. Look for 10–15 kt [12–17 mph] winds and seas still a modest 2–3 ft. ∨ BY SATURDAY THE HIGH SLIPS OFFSHORE AND ITS SE FLOW WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE SEABREEZE. LOOK FOR 10-15 KT WINDS...AND SEAS STILL A MODEST 2-3 FT. [AVI2] Long term (Sunday through Tuesday)… as of 3pm Thursday… east to southeast winds Sunday followed by a northeasterly flow Monday as a cold front passes through. Speeds will remain on the benign side with a range of 10–15 knots [12–17 mph]. Southeast flow develops late Tuesday as Bermuda high pressure reasserts control. The Wavewatch continues to be basically void of any swell so benign wind driven seas of 2–3 feet should prevail. ∨ LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BENIGN SIDE WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS CONTROL. THE WAVEWATCH CONTINUES TO BE BASICALLY VOID OF ANY SWELL SO BENIGN WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 2-3 FEET SHOULD PREVAIL. [AVI2] ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories South Carolina: none. North Carolina: none. Marine: none. ∨ .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. [WARN] Near Term: DCH/RJD; Short Term: RAS; Long Term: SHK; Aviation: DCH/MRR ∨ NEAR TERM...DCH/RJD SHORT TERM...RAS LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH/MRR [CRED]	Point Forecast Wilmington NC 5:01pm EDT Jul 29 2010 Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 75°. SW wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93°. Heat index values as high as 101. North wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 75°. East wind around 8 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 89°. East wind between 7 and 11 mph. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75°. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Sunday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89°. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 75°. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89°. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 74°. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89°. Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 76°. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90°. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77°. Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89°. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southwest wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 101. North wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind around 8 mph. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 89. East wind between 7 and 11 mph. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Sunday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 76. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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