Area Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KHNX [Hanford/San Joaq CA] 261325 AFDHNX ∨
FXUS66 KHNX 261325 AFDHNX [HEAD]
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 5:25am PST Mon Jan 26 2015 ∨
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 525 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015 [HEAD]
Update. Dense Fog Advisory until 18Z [10am PST] today for the central and southern San Joaquin Valley. ∨
.UPDATE... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z TODAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. [DISC]
Synopsis. The ridge of high pressure will drift from Northern California to the Four Corners [intersection of UT, CO, NM & AZ] region today. This shift will allow a storm system off the coast of northern Baja to introduce showers into much of the central California interior later today through Tuesday. Dry weather will return by Wednesday. Another storm will bring a renewed chance of showers to mainly the mountains and desert later in the week. ∨
.SYNOPSIS... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA TO INTRODUCE SHOWERS INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT LATER IN THE WEEK. [DISC]
Discussion. Dense fog has become more widespread. At 1223Z [4:23am PST] (0423 PST)… the California Highway patrol reported 200–500-foot visibilities on I-5 as far south as Highway 58 (near buttonwillow). At 13Z [5am PST] (0500 PST)… the AWOS/s at Los Banos… visalia and castle airpark and the ASOS [Automated Surface Observing System] at merced were reporting visibilities of less than a quarter mile and the ASOS [Automated Surface Observing System]/s at Fresno and Hanford were at one quarter mile. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the central and southern San Joaquin Valley through 18Z [10am PST] (1000 PST) this morning as there should be some mixing by that time ahead of the approaching storm. ∨
.DISCUSSION... DENSE FOG HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT 1223Z /0423 PST/...THE CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED 200-500-FOOT VISIBILITIES ON INTERSTATE 5 AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 58 /NEAR BUTTONWILLOW/. AT 13Z /0500 PST/...THE AWOS/S AT LOS BANOS...VISALIA AND CASTLE AIRPARK...AND THE ASOS AT MERCED WERE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE...AND THE ASOS/S AT FRESNO AND HANFORD WERE AT ONE QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z /1000 PST/ THIS MORNING AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME MIXING BY THAT TIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM. [DISC]
Previous discussion. (issued 3:05am PST Monday Jan 26 2015) ∨
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015/ [DISC]
Discussion. Only patchy dense fog in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley this morning… mainly in the merced/atwater area and along the Highway 198 corridor from visalia west through Hanford. At 10Z [2am PST] (0200 PST)… temperatures in the coldest spots were already near freezing and black ice on rural bridges and overpasses is a concern. Have used social media to get the word out. ∨
DISCUSSION... ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MERCED/ATWATER AREA AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 198 CORRIDOR FROM VISALIA WEST THROUGH HANFORD. AT 10Z /0200 PST/...TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDEST SPOTS WERE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING AND BLACK ICE ON RURAL BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IS A CONCERN. HAVE USED SOCIAL MEDIA TO GET THE WORD OUT. [DISC]
Satellite loops show an upper-level low west of Baja California this morning… spinning high clouds northward across Southern California into the central part of the state. This low is tapping into a subtropical moisture fetch and precipitation is expected to push northward into the Kern County mountain and desert areas this afternoon (possibly as early as midday for the Edwards/Rosamond) boron area/… then spread northward tonight. ∨
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...SPINNING HIGH CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS LOW IS TAPPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH...AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON /POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY FOR THE EDWARDS/ROSAMOND/ BORON AREA/...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT. [DISC]
Due to the subtropical nature of the moisture plume… snow levels will start out high… around 8000 feet this afternoon… then slowly lower to around 7000 feet by Tuesday evening before bottoming out around 6500 feet Wednesday morning. Forecasted storm total QPF [Quantitative Precipitation Forecast] is around a tenth of an inch for the San Joaquin Valley floor… up to a third of an inch in the foothills and around a half inch in the southern Sierra Nevada except locally higher in the Tulare County Mountains. The heaviest rainfall is forecast for tonight… then the precipitation ends from the west during the day Tuesday as the storm moves into the Great Basin. ∨
DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT HIGH...AROUND 8000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 6500 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECASTED STORM TOTAL QPF IS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR...UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...THEN THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. [DISC]
At this time… only expect isolated total snowfall amounts in excess of six inches near the southern Sierra Nevada Crest. Snowfall is not forecast to reach Winter Weather Advisory criteria… but local higher accumulations are possible if strong convective snow showers develop… so people heading into the high country will need to remain alert for changes in conditions. ∨
AT THIS TIME...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF SIX INCHES NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST. SNOWFALL IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT LOCAL HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF STRONG CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP...SO PEOPLE HEADING INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. [DISC]
Another upper-level trough is forecast to reach central California Thursday and remain over the region Friday before dropping south into Baja California Saturday. This will allow an upper-level ridge to nose into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California… in a pattern highly reminiscent of this past weekend. ∨
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...IN A PATTERN HIGHLY REMINISCENT OF THIS PAST WEEKEND. [DISC]
Aviation. Widespread IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] visibilities and ceilings in fog and stratus across most of the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent terrain… with areas of LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules]/VLIFR [Very Low Instrument Flight Rules] until 20Z [12pm PST] Monday. Elsewhere… rain and high elevation snow will create MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] with local MTN [Baltimore/Martin MD] obscuring IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions after 15Z [7am PST] Monday. ∨
.AVIATION... WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN...WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR UNTIL 20Z MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL CREATE MVFR WITH LOCAL MTN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z MONDAY. [AVIA]
Air quality issues… on Monday January 26 2015… fireplace/Wood stove burning status is: no burning unless registered in Fresno… Kern… Kings… madera… merced and tulare counties. Further information is available at valleyair.org ∨
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON MONDAY JANUARY 26 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG [DISC]
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. ∨
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM. [DISC]
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. [LINK]
Climate. Records site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year ∨
.CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR [AVIA]
KFAT 01–26 70:1940 41:1957 52:1940 24:1898 KFAT 01–27 70:1934 39:1963 52:2012 25:1949 KFAT 01–28 78:1986 41:1963 50:2003 23:1975 ∨
KFAT 01-26 70:1940 41:1957 52:1940 24:1898 KFAT 01-27 70:1934 39:1963 52:2012 25:1949 KFAT 01-28 78:1986 41:1963 50:2003 23:1975 [POPS]
KBFL 01–26 78:1942 45:1902 56:1966 25:1904 KBFL 01–27 75:1928 37:1963 51:2012 24:1904 KBFL 01–28 77:1988 47:1957 52:1981 27:1957 ∨
KBFL 01-26 78:1942 45:1902 56:1966 25:1904 KBFL 01-27 75:1928 37:1963 51:2012 24:1904 KBFL 01-28 77:1988 47:1957 52:1981 27:1957 [POPS]
HNX [Hanford/San Joaq CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/. [WARN]
Public: Sanger; AVN/FW: Sanger; Synopsis: Molina; Prev Discussion: Sanger ∨
PUBLIC...SANGER AVN/FW...SANGER SYNOPSIS...MOLINA PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER [CRED]
11:55am PST Jan 26 2015
This Afternoon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58°. West wind around 5 mph.
Tonight. A slight chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42°. Calm wind becoming SSW around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday. Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42°. Calm wind becoming WSW around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday Night. A 20% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37°. West wind around 5 mph becoming SE in the evening.
Wednesday. Partly sunny, with a high near 49°. East wind around 5 mph becoming WSW in the morning.
Wednesday Night. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42°. Light north wind becoming ENE 5 to 10 mph in the evening.
Thursday. Partly sunny, with a high near 48°. ENE wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the morning.
Thursday Night. A 20% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39°. WNW wind 5 to 10 mph becoming ENE in the evening.
Friday. A 20% chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 50°. ENE wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night. A 20% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41°. Breezy, with an ENE wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Saturday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55°. Breezy, with an ENE wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Saturday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 38°. Breezy, with an ENE wind 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55°. ENE wind 10 to 15 mph.