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FXUS66 KHNX [Hanford/San Joaq CA] 261325 AFDHNX 

FXUS66 KHNX 261325
AFDHNX [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 5:25am PST Mon Jan 26 2015 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
525 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015 [HEAD]

Update. Dense Fog Advisory until 18Z [10am PST] today for the central and southern San Joaquin Valley. 

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z TODAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. [DISC]

Synopsis. The ridge of high pressure will drift from Northern California to the Four Corners [intersection of UT, CO, NM & AZ] region today. This shift will allow a storm system off the coast of northern Baja to introduce showers into much of the central California interior later today through Tuesday. Dry weather will return by Wednesday. Another storm will bring a renewed chance of showers to mainly the mountains and desert later in the week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. THIS SHIFT WILL ALLOW A STORM
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA TO INTRODUCE SHOWERS INTO
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR LATER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL
BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT LATER IN THE WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. Dense fog has become more widespread. At 1223Z [4:23am PST] (0423 PST)… the California Highway patrol reported 200–500-foot visibilities on I-5 as far south as Highway 58 (near buttonwillow). At 13Z [5am PST] (0500 PST)… the AWOS/s at Los Banos… visalia and castle airpark and the ASOS [Automated Surface Observing System] at merced were reporting visibilities of less than a quarter mile and the ASOS [Automated Surface Observing System]/s at Fresno and Hanford were at one quarter mile. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the central and southern San Joaquin Valley through 18Z [10am PST] (1000 PST) this morning as there should be some mixing by that time ahead of the approaching storm. 

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AT 1223Z /0423 PST/...THE
CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED 200-500-FOOT VISIBILITIES ON
INTERSTATE 5 AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 58 /NEAR BUTTONWILLOW/. AT
13Z /0500 PST/...THE AWOS/S AT LOS BANOS...VISALIA AND CASTLE
AIRPARK...AND THE ASOS AT MERCED WERE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF
LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE...AND THE ASOS/S AT FRESNO AND HANFORD
WERE AT ONE QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z /1000 PST/
THIS MORNING AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME MIXING BY THAT TIME AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM. [DISC]

Previous discussion. (issued 3:05am PST Monday Jan 26 2015) 

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015/ [DISC]

Discussion. Only patchy dense fog in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley this morning… mainly in the merced/atwater area and along the Highway 198 corridor from visalia west through Hanford. At 10Z [2am PST] (0200 PST)… temperatures in the coldest spots were already near freezing and black ice on rural bridges and overpasses is a concern. Have used social media to get the word out. 

DISCUSSION...
ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MERCED/ATWATER AREA AND ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 198 CORRIDOR FROM VISALIA WEST THROUGH HANFORD. AT 10Z /0200
PST/...TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDEST SPOTS WERE ALREADY NEAR FREEZING
AND BLACK ICE ON RURAL BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IS A CONCERN. HAVE
USED SOCIAL MEDIA TO GET THE WORD OUT. [DISC]

Satellite loops show an upper-level low west of Baja California this morning… spinning high clouds northward across Southern California into the central part of the state. This low is tapping into a subtropical moisture fetch and precipitation is expected to push northward into the Kern County mountain and desert areas this afternoon (possibly as early as midday for the Edwards/Rosamond) boron area/… then spread northward tonight. 

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING...SPINNING HIGH CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS LOW IS TAPPING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH...AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON /POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY FOR THE EDWARDS/ROSAMOND/
BORON AREA/...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT. [DISC]

Due to the subtropical nature of the moisture plume… snow levels will start out high… around 8000 feet this afternoon… then slowly lower to around 7000 feet by Tuesday evening before bottoming out around 6500 feet Wednesday morning. Forecasted storm total QPF [Quantitative Precipitation Forecast] is around a tenth of an inch for the San Joaquin Valley floor… up to a third of an inch in the foothills and around a half inch in the southern Sierra Nevada except locally higher in the Tulare County Mountains. The heaviest rainfall is forecast for tonight… then the precipitation ends from the west during the day Tuesday as the storm moves into the Great Basin. 

DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...SNOW LEVELS
WILL START OUT HIGH...AROUND 8000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 6500 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECASTED STORM TOTAL QPF IS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR...UP TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE TULARE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...THEN THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE STORM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. [DISC]

At this time… only expect isolated total snowfall amounts in excess of six inches near the southern Sierra Nevada Crest. Snowfall is not forecast to reach Winter Weather Advisory criteria… but local higher accumulations are possible if strong convective snow showers develop… so people heading into the high country will need to remain alert for changes in conditions. 

AT THIS TIME...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF SIX INCHES NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST. SNOWFALL IS NOT
FORECAST TO REACH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT LOCAL
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF STRONG CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP...SO PEOPLE HEADING INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL NEED TO
REMAIN ALERT FOR CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. [DISC]

Another upper-level trough is forecast to reach central California Thursday and remain over the region Friday before dropping south into Baja California Saturday. This will allow an upper-level ridge to nose into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California… in a pattern highly reminiscent of this past weekend. 

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO NOSE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...IN A
PATTERN HIGHLY REMINISCENT OF THIS PAST WEEKEND. [DISC]

Aviation. Widespread IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] visibilities and ceilings in fog and stratus across most of the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent terrain… with areas of LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules]/VLIFR [Very Low Instrument Flight Rules] until 20Z [12pm PST] Monday. Elsewhere… rain and high elevation snow will create MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] with local MTN [Baltimore/Martin MD] obscuring IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions after 15Z [7am PST] Monday. 

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT TERRAIN...WITH AREAS OF
LIFR/VLIFR UNTIL 20Z MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW WILL CREATE MVFR WITH LOCAL MTN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
15Z MONDAY. [AVIA]

Air quality issues… on Monday January 26 2015… fireplace/Wood stove burning status is: no burning unless registered in Fresno… Kern… Kings… madera… merced and tulare counties. Further information is available at valleyair.org 

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JANUARY 26 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG [DISC]

Certainty. 

.CERTAINTY... [DISC]

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. 

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM. [DISC]
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. [LINK]

Climate. Records site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year 

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR [AVIA]
KFAT 01–26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01–27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949
KFAT 01–28       78:1986     41:1963     50:2003     23:1975 
KFAT 01-26       70:1940     41:1957     52:1940     24:1898
KFAT 01-27       70:1934     39:1963     52:2012     25:1949
KFAT 01-28       78:1986     41:1963     50:2003     23:1975 [POPS]
KBFL 01–26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01–27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
KBFL 01–28       77:1988     47:1957     52:1981     27:1957 
KBFL 01-26       78:1942     45:1902     56:1966     25:1904
KBFL 01-27       75:1928     37:1963     51:2012     24:1904
KBFL 01-28       77:1988     47:1957     52:1981     27:1957 [POPS]

HNX [Hanford/San Joaq CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Dense Fog Advisory until 10am PST this morning for the central and southern San Joaquin Valley (CAZ089>092). 
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/. [WARN]

Public: Sanger; AVN/FW: Sanger; Synopsis: Molina; Prev Discussion: Sanger 

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER [CRED]
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD [LINK]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

11:55am PST Jan 26 2015

This Afternoon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58°. West wind around 5 mph.

Tonight. A slight chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42°. Calm wind becoming SSW around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.


Tuesday. Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42°. Calm wind becoming WSW around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tuesday Night. A 20% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37°. West wind around 5 mph becoming SE in the evening.


Wednesday. Partly sunny, with a high near 49°. East wind around 5 mph becoming WSW in the morning.

Wednesday Night. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42°. Light north wind becoming ENE 5 to 10 mph in the evening.


Thursday. Partly sunny, with a high near 48°. ENE wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the morning.

Thursday Night. A 20% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39°. WNW wind 5 to 10 mph becoming ENE in the evening.


Friday. A 20% chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 50°. ENE wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night. A 20% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41°. Breezy, with an ENE wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.


Saturday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55°. Breezy, with an ENE wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Saturday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 38°. Breezy, with an ENE wind 10 to 20 mph.


Sunday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55°. ENE wind 10 to 15 mph.

  • This Afternoon Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. West wind around 5 mph.
  • Tonight A slight chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
  • Tuesday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
  • Tuesday Night A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. West wind around 5 mph becoming southeast in the evening.
  • Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 49. East wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the morning.
  • Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Light north wind becoming east northeast 5 to 10 mph in the evening.
  • Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 48. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the morning.
  • Thursday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east northeast in the evening.
  • Friday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
  • Friday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
  • Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
  • Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 10 to 20 mph.
  • Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

  • This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: