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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 230356 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 230356
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 8:56pm PDT Mon May 22 2017 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
856 PM PDT MON MAY 22 2017 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Northern California's first triple digit heat of the season will continue for portions of the Central Valley again on Tuesday. Cooling trend begins Wednesday with near to slightly below normal temperatures by Friday. Isolated late day showers or thunderstorms possible over portions of the mountains Tuesday, Wednesday and again Friday. 

.SYNOPSIS...
NORCAL`S FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OF THE SEASON WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY AGAIN ON TUESDAY. COOLING TREND
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. [DISC]

Discussion. Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer this evening over the interior but have trended slightly cooler in the Bay Area. Winds through the Delta are light and are expected to remain light tonight and for most of the day on Tuesday. Temperatures should remain near today's high's on Tuesday for most areas with only minimal cooling in the Sacramento region. Winds will start to increase in the Delta late in the day but will probably not have that much impact on Tuesday's daytime high temperatures inland outside of the Delta. Stronger winds through the Delta with better cooling for the Sacramento region will occur Tuesday evening. Further inland it will still be slow to cool off again at night. 

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS EVENING OVER
THE INTERIOR BUT HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE BAY AREA.
WINDS THROUGH THE DELTA ARE LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TODAYS HIGH`S ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH
ONLY MINIMAL COOLING IN THE SACRAMENTO REGION. WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE IN THE DELTA LATE IN THE DAY BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE
THAT MUCH IMPACT ON TUESDAY`S DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND
OUTSIDE OF THE DELTA. STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE DELTA WITH
BETTER COOLING FOR THE SACRAMENTO REGION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
EVENING. FURTHER INLAND IT WILL STILL BE SLOW TO COOL OFF AGAIN AT
NIGHT. [DISC]

Previous discussion (today through Thursday) high amplitude upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific extends inland resulting in well above normal temperatures over interior Northern California. Afternoon temps running upwards of 5° higher than 24 hours ago. Marine layer has dropped below 1000 ft and the Delta breeze is non existent at this time. High temperatures expected above the century mark in the northern Sacramento Valley and possibly at select spots in the northern San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. 

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EPAC EXTENDS INLAND RESULTING
IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER INTERIOR NORCAL. AFTERNOON
TEMPS RUNNING UPWARDS OF 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
MARINE LAYER HAS DROPPED BELOW 1000 FT AND THE DELTA BREEZE IS NON
EXISTENT ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK
IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND POSSIBLY AT SELECT SPOTS IN
THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. [DISC]

Upper ridging gets suppressed slightly over Northern California Tuesday as northern portions of it progress into the Great Basin, ahead of short wave system tracking towards the Pacific Northwest. Little change expected in Max temps Tuesday with possible exception of slightly more Delta breeze influence into the southern Sacramento Valley. High temperatures Tuesday continue above the century mark in the northern and central Sacramento Valley. Mid to upper 90s expected for the southern SAC [Sacramento CA]/northern San Joaquin portions of the Central Valley. Slight increase in available moisture and instability Tuesday over the Sierra Nevada, south of us-50, may result in isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms. 

UPPER RIDGING GETS SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY OVER NORCAL TUESDAY AS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IT PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE PACNW. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
MORE DELTA BREEZE INFLUENCE INTO THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY CONTINUE ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY. MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED
FOR THE SOUTHERN SAC/NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TUESDAY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA, SOUTH OF US-50, MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. [DISC]

Marine layer deepens Tuesday night as upper low approaches and onshore flow increases. Models showing strong flow through the Delta developing overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Weak cold front forecast to drop from the Pacific Northwest across northern portions of California on Wednesday as short wave system digs into the Great Basin and expands westward. This will begin a cooling trend Wednesday that continues through the remainder of the week. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms possible over the Shasta and coastal mountains Wednesday afternoon into evening. 

MARINE LAYER DEEPENS TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. MODELS SHOWING STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE
DELTA DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO DROP FROM THE PACNW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CA ON WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
EXPANDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SHASTA AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. [AVIA]

Cooling continues Thursday with more stable AMS [(Arctic) Air Mass]. 80s expected throughout the Central Valley with 70s in the Delta and foothills, and mainly 50s to 60s in the mountains. 

COOLING CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH MORE STABLE AMS. 80S EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH 70S IN THE DELTA AND
FOOTHILLS, AND MAINLY 50S TO 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. [AVI2]

PCH 

PCH [CRED]

Extended discussion (Friday through Monday) 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) [DISC]

A ridge of high pressure will be building back into Northern California for the holiday weekend and that is going to bring quiet weather with warming temperatures. We will see highs on Friday in the low to mid 80's but will be warming to near 100 for some by Sunday. A Delta influence Friday and Saturday will keep southern areas a bit cooler but it will start to weaken Sunday and Monday. Some weak instability will build into the higher elevations Saturday through Monday during the afternoon and evening and that will lead to just an isolated thunderstorms-storm chance. A short wave trough approaches from the west later Monday and that will bring the chance for some clouds but we look to stay dry. 

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO NORCAL FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THAT IS GOING TO BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES. WE WILL SEE HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 80`S BUT WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR 100 FOR SOME BY SUNDAY. A
DELTA INFLUENCE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL KEEP SOUTHERN AREAS A BIT
COOLER BUT IT WILL START TO WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THAT WILL LEAD TO
JUST AN ISOLATED T-STORM CHANCE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATER MONDAY AND THAT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME
CLOUDS BUT WE LOOK TO STAY DRY. [DISC]

-CJM 

-CJM [CRED]

Aviation.  

.AVIATION... [AVIA]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions the next 24 hours at valley TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites. Winds will be variable under 10 knots [12 mph]

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT VALLEY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS. [AVI2]

-CJM 

-CJM [CRED]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • None. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

22 May 9:55pm PDT

Overnight Clear, with a low around 61°. SE wind 3 to 5 mph.
Tuesday Sunny and hot, with a high near 98°. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 56°. WSW wind 6 to 9 mph becoming SSE after midnight.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 88°. SW wind 10 to 13 mph.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°. South wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 84°.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 79°.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 84°.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 53°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 88°.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 56°.
Memorial Day Sunny, with a high near 90°.
Overnight
Clear, with a low around 61. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 56. West southwest wind 6 to 9 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. South wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 79.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 88.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Memorial Day
Sunny, with a high near 90.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: