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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 231216 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 231216
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 3:30am PDT Sat Jul 23 2016 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Dry with a gradual warming trend through the week. Triple digit heat expected in the Central Valley with high temperatures well above normal. 

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. [DISC]

Discussion. AMS [(Arctic) Air Mass] begins to warm today in wake of short wave trough pushing through the Pacific Northwest and upper high to the south expanding northward. Highs expected to climb into the triple digits today in the Central Valley, hottest around 105 in the northern Sacramento Valley. Warming also expected in the Delta region today as flow is weak and marine layer very shallow. 

.DISCUSSION...
AMS BEGINS TO WARM TODAY IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH THE PACNW AND UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH EXPANDING NORTHWARD.
HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY, HOTTEST AROUND 105 IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY. WARMING ALSO EXPECTED IN THE DELTA REGION TODAY AS FLOW IS
WEAK AND MARINE LAYER VERY SHALLOW. [DISC]

Upper troughing forecast to deepen slightly over Northern California Sunday into Monday resulting in stronger Delta breeze and some increase in depth of marine layer. As a result, slight cooling possible… mainly Monday and greatest near Delta influenced areas. Highs in the Sacramento area expected to lower into the upper 90s Monday. 

UPPER TROUGHING PROGGED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER NORCAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY RESULTING IN STRONGER DELTA BREEZE AND SOME INCREASE IN DEPTH
OF MARINE LAYER. AS A RESULT, SLIGHT COOLING POSSIBLE...MAINLY
MONDAY AND GREATEST NEAR DELTA INFLUENCED AREAS. HIGHS IN THE
SACRAMENTO AREA EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE UPPER 90S MONDAY. [DISC]

Upper ridging from the desert SW combines with the Eastern Pacific high Tuesday and expands northward over Northern California. High pressure then continues to strengthen into Thursday. This will result in more significant warming trend with highs climbing to around 110 in the northern SAC [Sacramento CA] Valley Thursday. Max temperatures expected to be upwards of 10 plus degrees above normal next week, but remaining below record values. 

UPPER RIDGING FROM THE DESERT SW COMBINES WITH THE EPAC HIGH
TUESDAY AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD OVER NORCAL. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND 110 IN
THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY THURSDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
UPWARDS OF 10 PLUS DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAINING
BELOW RECORD VALUES. [DISC]

PCH 

PCH [CRED]

Extended discussion (Wednesday through Saturday) 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) [DISC]

Upper level ridging remains over the Western US through the extended period for dry and very warm conditions through the end of next week. Daytime highs will run anywhere from 5–10° above normal for late July but still below record values. Winds generally light under the ridge. A slight cooling possible by next Saturday as upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast increasing onshore flow. At this time… monsoon moisture appears will remain south and east of CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] but some models bringing precipitation up the Sierra by next Saturday. Have kept extended dry for now. 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BUT STILL BELOW RECORD VALUES. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. A SLIGHT COOLING POSSIBLE BY NEXT
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE APPEARS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BUT SOME MODELS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION UP THE SIERRA BY NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT EXTENDED
DRY FOR NOW. [DISC]

Aviation.  

.AVIATION... [AVIA]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions all terminals next 24 hours. Mainly northerly sustained wind up to 15 knots [17 mph]

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY NORTHERLY
SUSTAINED WIND UP TO 15 KNOTS. [AVI2]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • None. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

23 Jul 7:02am PDT

Today Sunny, with a high near 90°. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Tonight Clear, with a low around 65°. Light and variable wind becoming ENE 8 to 13 mph after midnight.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 91°. ENE wind 5 to 10 mph becoming SW in the afternoon.
Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 65°. WSW wind around 9 mph becoming ENE in the evening.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 86°. ENE wind around 10 mph becoming SW in the morning.
Monday Night Clear, with a low around 67°.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 89°.
Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 65°.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 90°.
Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 67°.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 89°.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 70°.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 90°.
Today
Sunny, with a high near 90. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 65. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 8 to 13 mph after midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 91. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 65. West southwest wind around 9 mph becoming east northeast in the evening.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 86. East northeast wind around 10 mph becoming southwest in the morning.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 67.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 89.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 65.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 90.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 67.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 89.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 70.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 90.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: