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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 302150 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 302150
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 2:50pm PDT Sat Apr 30 2016 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
250 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Breezy north winds continue into Sunday, though not as strong as today. Milder temperatures. Mountain shower chances return Sunday afternoon. Better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms by the middle of next week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES. MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. Breezy day across the region as last night's weather system moves into Arizona and high pressure builds along the West Coast. Skies are clear across most of interior Northern California this afternoon except for cloudiness packed up along the northern Sierra Crest from easterly flow. Temperatures are a mixed bag today with mountain areas generally cooler than 24 hours ago with readings in the 40s and 50s (continuing cold advection in the mid-levels) while the Central Valley is running about 4–8° warmer with temps in the upper 70s and lower 80s under sunshine and some compressional warming. 

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS LAST NIGHT`S WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO ARIZONA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES
ARE CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF INTERIOR NORCAL THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
CLOUDINESS PACKED UP ALONG THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST FROM EASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE A MIXED BAG TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS
GENERALLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND
50S (CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS) WHILE THE
CENTRAL VALLEY IS RUNNING ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES WARMER WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S UNDER SUNSHINE AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING. [DISC]

Northerly surface pressure gradients have begun to relax a bit, and will decrease further tonight as the gradient shifts and becomes more northeasterly by 12Z [5am PDT] Sunday. While breezes will continue overnight, most areas will see gusts drop below advisory levels by late this afternoon. Breezy northerly winds will continue into Sunday. 

NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEGUN TO RELAX A BIT,
AND WILL DECREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS AND
BECOMES MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY 12Z SUNDAY. WHILE BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. [DISC]

Eastern Pacific ridge develops into blocking high over the northern Rockies on Sunday allowing some portion of the SW low to retrograde back into Northern California from the east. This will bring a return of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms to the mountains Sunday and Monday. Valley high temperatures will be mainly in the low to mid 80s. 

EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING SOME PORTION OF THE SW LOW TO
RETROGRADE BACK INTO NORCAL FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. [DISC]

Next upstream trough forecast to approach Tuesday marking the beginning of the trend back toward cooler temps along with more unsettled weather for Northern California heading into mid-week. 

NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH TUESDAY MARKING THE
BEGINNING OF THE TREND BACK TOWARD COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NORCAL HEADING INTO MID-WEEK. [DISC]

Extended discussion (Wednesday through Saturday). A high amplitude trough of low pressure is forecast to be positioned in the eastern Pacific and move into Northern California Wednesday. The incoming storm system will bring the needed lift behind enough moisture to bring showers and thunderstorm chances for the entire forecast area. A cool down of temperatures is expected with a return to near normal high temperatures in the low to mid 70s in the valley, 50s to 60s in the foothills, and the low to mid 40s in the higher elevations. 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY)...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
POSITIONED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MOVE INTO NORCAL WEDNESDAY.
THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEEDED LIFT BEHIND ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. A COOL DOWN OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
THE VALLEY, 50S TO 60S IN THE FOOTHILLS, AND THE LOW TO MID 40S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. [DISC]

Models are in fairly good agreement as to the timing and spatial extend of the upper level low pressure, and the system should stall out over the West Coast for a few days. As a result of the lingering system, cooler temperatures and chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week. 

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING AND SPATIAL
EXTEND OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD STALL
OUT OVER THE WEST COAST FOR A FEW DAYS.  AS A RESULT OF THE
LINGERING SYSTEM, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. [DISC]

Aviation. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24 hours. The transition between low and high pressure over Northern California will bring gusty conditions in the valley through late evening for the Sacramento area and southward, while gusty conditions will continue in the north valley overnight through Sunday. 

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE TRANSITION BETWEEN LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORCAL
WILL BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR
THE SACRAMENTO AREA AND SOUTHWARD, WHILE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH VALLEY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. [AVIA]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Wind Advisory until 5pm PDT this afternoon for Carquinez Strait and Delta-central Sacramento Valley-clear lake/southern Lake County-mountains southwestern Shasta County to northern Lake County-northern Sacramento Valley-northern San Joaquin Valley-southern Sacramento Valley. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARQUINEZ STRAIT
AND DELTA-CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

30 Apr 8:02pm PDT

Tonight Clear, with a low around 46°. Breezy, with a light and variable wind becoming ENE 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.
Sunday A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°. East wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 46°. Light and variable wind becoming east 9 to 14 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66°. ESE wind 7 to 9 mph becoming west in the morning.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47°. WSW wind around 7 mph becoming ENE in the evening.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 68°.
Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°.
Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61°.
Wednesday Night A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43°.
Thursday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 54°.
Thursday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40°.
Friday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 52°.
Friday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42°.
Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 54°.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 46. Breezy, with a light and variable wind becoming east northeast 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.
Sunday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. East wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Light and variable wind becoming east 9 to 14 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. East southeast wind 7 to 9 mph becoming west in the morning.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47. West southwest wind around 7 mph becoming east northeast in the evening.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 54.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 52.
Friday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 54.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: