Area Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 281605 AFDSTO ∨
FXUS66 KSTO 281605 AFDSTO [HEAD]
National Weather Service Sacramento California 9:05am PDT Tue Jun 28 2016 ∨
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 905 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016 [HEAD]
Synopsis. Hot and mainly dry weather this week. A few late day thunderstorms possible mid-week over the mountains. ∨
.SYNOPSIS... HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID-WEEK OVER THE MOUNTAINS. [DISC]
Discussion. Not counting on the Delta breeze to bring any cooling today and have updated a few of the Max temps for today to be about as warm or a degree or two warmer than Monday. The 24 hour temp trend this morning showed some cooling northern SAC [Sacramento CA] Valley and this could be the reflection of the upper trough nearing 130°W [550 mi west of Mather] and capping 5H heights over the far northern zones. However… for the rest of the CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map]… the lack of a Delta breeze and the strength of the 4-corners high remain the dominating factors with the 24 hour trend this morning showing a degree or two of warming. With the very shallow marine layer even the SW wind will not have sufficient "freon" to bring cooling today. Similar to Monday… light NW winds at 925 mbs are expected through the afternoon which also suggests a persistent weather regime. The addition of a degree or two of warming puts DTS [Destin FL] in the chance of tying the record Max for the date… which we have highlighted in the latest SM post. The other record sites are expected to fall short. The table below offers additional information on Max temps for the rest of the month. ∨
.DISCUSSION... NOT COUNTING ON THE DELTA BREEZE TO BRING ANY COOLING TODAY AND HAVE UPDATED A FEW OF THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY TO BE ABOUT AS WARM OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MON. THE 24 HR TEMP TREND THIS MORNING SHOWED SOME COOLING NRN SAC VLY AND THIS COULD BE THE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROF NEARING 130W AND CAPPING 5H HEIGHTS OVER THE FAR NRN ZONES. HOWEVER...FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...THE LACK OF A DELTA BREEZE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH REMAIN THE DOMINATING FACTORS WITH THE 24 HR TREND THIS MORNING SHOWING A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING. WITH THE VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER EVEN THE SW WIND WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT "FREON" TO BRING COOLING TODAY. SIMILAR TO MON...LIGHT NW WINDS AT 925 MBS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT WX REGIME. THE ADDITION OF A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING PUTS DTS IN THE CHANCE OF TYING THE RECORD MAX FOR THE DATE...WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE LATEST SM POST. THE OTHER RECORD SITES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT. THE TABLE BELOW OFFERS ADDITIONAL INFO ON MAX TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH. [DISC]
June 28th June 29th June 30th ∨
JUNE 28TH JUNE 29TH JUNE 30TH [POPS]
RDD [Redding CA] 108 (2013) 108 (2013) 113 (2015) 111 (1918) RBL [Red Bluff CA] 112 (1977) 114 (1950) 113 (2015) DTS [Destin FL] 108 (2009) 107 (2013) 112 (1934) SAC [Sacramento CA] 108 (2009) 107 (2013) 109 (1950) myv 111 (2009) SCK [Stockton CA] 110 (2009) 106 (2013) 110 (1972) moderate 111 (2009) 109 (2009) 108 (1950) ∨
RDD 108 (2013) 108 (2013) 113 (2015) 111 (1918) RBL 112 (1977) 114 (1950) 113 (2015) DTS 108 (2009) 107 (2013) 112 (1934) SAC 108 (2009) 107 (2013) 109 (1950) MYV 111 (2009) SCK 110 (2009) 106 (2013) 110 (1972) MOD 111 (2009) 109 (2009) 108 (1950) [DISC]
The short-wave along the southeastern California/southern Nevada border is another feature to be monitored as it works its way northward today and Wednesday… bringing some monsoonal moisture with it and the chance of thunderstorms… mainly S of Tahoe. Most of the activity should be E of the Sierra Crest. Late Wednesday and Thursday the aforementioned upper trough is expected to weaken the ridge over Northern California initiating some minor cooling and continuing a small chance of thunder over a portion of the mountains… although moisture is lacking. (JHM [Lahaina/West Maui HI]) ∨
THE SHORT-WAVE ALONG THE SERN CA/SRN NV BORDER IS ANOTHER FEATURE TO BE MONITORED AS IT WORKS ITS WAY NWD TODAY AND WED...BRINGING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH IT AND THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS...MAINLY S OF TAHOE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF THE SIERRA CREST. LATE WED AND THU THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER NORCAL INITIATING SOME MINOR COOLING AND CONTINUING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER A PORTION OF THE MTNS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LACKING. JHM [DISC]
Extended discussion (Saturday through Tuesday). A broad upper level trough will remain situated along the West Coast this upcoming weekend and into early next week. Dry weather is expected through this time period, with seasonal temperatures (low 90s across the valley) and stronger onshore flow through the Delta. (Dang) ∨
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S ACROSS THE VALLEY) AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DELTA. DANG [DISC]
Aviation. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions expected for the terminals during the next 24 hour period. Light wind shifts are expected for the Sacramento area and in the northern valley overnight. ∨
.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. LIGHT WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SACRAMENTO AREA AND IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. [AVIA]
STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. [WARN]
28 Jun 1:02pm PDT
This Afternoon Mostly sunny, with a high near 93°. West wind around 9 mph.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 69°. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 92°. ESE wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west in the morning.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 67°. West wind around 8 mph becoming ENE in the evening.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 91°. ENE wind 6 to 8 mph becoming WSW in the morning.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 66°.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 88°.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 63°.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 84°.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 61°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 83°.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 61°.
Independence Day Sunny, with a high near 83°.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. West wind around 9 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. East southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west in the morning.
Mostly clear, with a low around 67. West wind around 8 mph becoming east northeast in the evening.
Sunny, with a high near 91. East northeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west southwest in the morning.
Mostly clear, with a low around 66.
Sunny, with a high near 88.
Mostly clear, with a low around 63.
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
Sunny, with a high near 83.
Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
Sunny, with a high near 83.