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FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 211226 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 211226
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 4:26am PST Sat Jan 21 2017 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PST SAT JAN 21 2017 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Showers continue today, then the next in a series of winter storms moves in tonight bringing heavier precipitation and strong winds. Expect severe mountain travel impacts. Should see extended dry period return next week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY, THEN THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS
MOVES IN TONIGHT BRINGING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS.
EXPECT SEVERE MOUNTAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS. SHOULD SEE EXTENDED DRY
PERIOD RETURN NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. Cold and unstable atmosphere will continue scattered showers across the region today. A clap of thunder or two may accompany some of the heavier showers. Snow levels will remain around 3–4 kft. Breezy southerly winds will continue. 

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-4K
FT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. [DISC]

The next storm system will move through Northern California tonight into Sunday with valley rainfall of 1–2 inches and mountain snow of 2–4 feet (locally higher amounts) and snow levels 3–4K feet. 

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORCAL TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH VALLEY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OF
2 TO 4 FEET (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) AND SNOW LEVELS 3-4K FEET. [DISC]

Another round of strong gusty winds are anticipated with this system. South to southeast winds will increase late this evening beneath 55–65 kt [63–75 mph] 925 mb jet Max [point or area of relative maximum wind speeds within a jet stream]. This will translate to 25–35 mph winds with gusts to 55 mph over the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valley (Redding to Modesto) into Sunday morning. Winds of this magnitude will continue to pose a threat for tree damage and power outages. 

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
BENEATH 55-65 KT 925 MB JET MAX. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO 25-35 MPH
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH OVER THE SACRAMENTO/NORTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY (REDDING TO MODESTO) INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR TREE DAMAGE AND
POWER OUTAGES. [DISC]

Front and deeper moisture are shunted south later Sunday for diminishing precipitation and lighter winds. Some partial clearing across the northern half of the Sacramento Valley Sunday afternoon may pose a threat for some stronger thunderstorms. Showers continue Monday. 

FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE SHUNTED SOUTH LATER SUNDAY FOR
DIMINISHING PRECIP AND LIGHTER WINDS. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS CONTINUE
MONDAY. [DISC]

Stacked surface/upper low forecast to continue filling as it drops southeastward Monday night into early Tuesday and will provide the final chance for showers for Northern California through this period of wet weather. 

STACKED SURFACE/UPPER LOW PROGGED TO CONTINUE FILLING AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE
FINAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR NORCAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER. [DISC]

Extended discussion (Wednesday through Saturday) extended period of dry weather expected across the region during the extended forecast period as models continue to show strong ridging along the West Coast. Daytime highs start out slightly below normal then climb to a little above normal by the end of the week. Cool nights with fair skies allowing overnight lows to drop to a little below normal. 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS START OUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THEN CLIMB TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. COOL NIGHTS WITH FAIR SKIES ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. [DISC]

Aviation. Mainly VFR [Visual Flight Rules] TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites today except occasional MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings with passing showers. IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings and visibility over Sierra Cascades. Deteriating conditions after about 06Z [10pm PST] tonight as next frontal system pushes in with IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]/LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings by 12Z [4am PST] Sunday. South winds 10–20 mph today increasing after 00Z [4pm PST] Sunday reaching sustained 30 knots [35 mph] gusts to 50 knots [58 mph] by 12Z [4am PST] Sunday. 

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR TAF SITES TODAY EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
WITH PASSING SHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY OVER SIERRA
CASCADES. DETERIATING CONDITIONS AFTER ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT AS NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES IN WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY INCREASING AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
REACHING SUSTAINED 30 KNOTS GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS BY 12Z SUNDAY. [AVIA]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Winter Storm Warning until 4am PST Monday for west slope northern Sierra Nevada-western Plumas County/Lassen Park. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR WEST SLOPE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK. [WARN]
  • Winter Storm Warning from 7pm this evening to 4pm PST Sunday for mountains southwestern Shasta County to northern Lake County-Shasta Lake area / northern Shasta County. 
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY. [WRN2]
  • Wind Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10am PST Sunday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-central Sacramento Valley-clear lake/southern Lake County-motherlode-mountains southwestern Shasta County to northern Lake County-northeast foothills/Sacramento Valley-northern Sacramento Valley-northern San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake area / northern Shasta County-southern Sacramento Valley. 
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR
LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-MOTHERLODE-MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN
SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHEAST
FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-NORTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. [WRN2]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

21 Jan 7:02am PST

Today Snow showers. High near 37°. SSE wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Tonight Snow, mainly after 10pm. Temperature rising to around 36 by midnight. East wind 10 to 16 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Sunday Snow showers before 10am, then rain and snow showers. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. High near 40°. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Sunday Night Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 10pm. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. Low around 32°. SW wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Monday Snow showers. High near 36°. SSE wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Monday Night A 50% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27°. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tuesday A 20% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 27°.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 40°.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 16°.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 41°.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 26°.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 44°.
Today
Snow showers. High near 37. South southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow, mainly after 10pm. Temperature rising to around 36 by midnight. East wind 10 to 16 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow showers before 10am, then rain and snow showers. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. High near 40. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 10pm. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Southwest wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Monday
Snow showers. High near 36. South southeast wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Monday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 40.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 16.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 41.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 26.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 44.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: