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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 281605 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 281605
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 9:05am PDT Tue Jun 28 2016 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
905 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Hot and mainly dry weather this week. A few late day thunderstorms possible mid-week over the mountains. 

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MID-WEEK OVER THE MOUNTAINS. [DISC]

Discussion. Not counting on the Delta breeze to bring any cooling today and have updated a few of the Max temps for today to be about as warm or a degree or two warmer than Monday. The 24 hour temp trend this morning showed some cooling northern SAC [Sacramento CA] Valley and this could be the reflection of the upper trough nearing 130°W [550 mi west of Mather] and capping 5H heights over the far northern zones. However… for the rest of the CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map]… the lack of a Delta breeze and the strength of the 4-corners high remain the dominating factors with the 24 hour trend this morning showing a degree or two of warming. With the very shallow marine layer even the SW wind will not have sufficient "freon" to bring cooling today. Similar to Monday… light NW winds at 925 mbs are expected through the afternoon which also suggests a persistent weather regime. The addition of a degree or two of warming puts DTS [Destin FL] in the chance of tying the record Max for the date… which we have highlighted in the latest SM post. The other record sites are expected to fall short. The table below offers additional information on Max temps for the rest of the month. 

.DISCUSSION...
NOT COUNTING ON THE DELTA BREEZE TO BRING ANY COOLING TODAY AND HAVE
UPDATED A FEW OF THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY TO BE ABOUT AS WARM OR A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MON. THE 24 HR TEMP TREND THIS MORNING
SHOWED SOME COOLING NRN SAC VLY AND THIS COULD BE THE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROF NEARING 130W AND CAPPING 5H HEIGHTS OVER THE FAR NRN
ZONES. HOWEVER...FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...THE LACK OF A DELTA
BREEZE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH REMAIN THE DOMINATING
FACTORS WITH THE 24 HR TREND THIS MORNING SHOWING A DEGREE OR TWO OF
WARMING. WITH THE VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER EVEN THE SW WIND WILL
NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT "FREON" TO BRING COOLING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
MON...LIGHT NW WINDS AT 925 MBS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT WX REGIME. THE ADDITION OF A DEGREE
OR TWO OF WARMING PUTS DTS IN THE CHANCE OF TYING THE RECORD MAX FOR
THE DATE...WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE LATEST SM POST. THE OTHER
RECORD SITES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT. THE TABLE BELOW OFFERS
ADDITIONAL INFO ON MAX TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH. [DISC]
    June 28th       June 29th       June 30th 
    JUNE 28TH       JUNE 29TH       JUNE 30TH [POPS]

RDD [Redding CA] 108 (2013) 108 (2013) 113 (2015) 111 (1918) RBL [Red Bluff CA] 112 (1977) 114 (1950) 113 (2015) DTS [Destin FL] 108 (2009) 107 (2013) 112 (1934) SAC [Sacramento CA] 108 (2009) 107 (2013) 109 (1950) myv 111 (2009) SCK [Stockton CA] 110 (2009) 106 (2013) 110 (1972) moderate 111 (2009) 109 (2009) 108 (1950) 

RDD  108 (2013)     108 (2013)      113 (2015)
111 (1918)
RBL  112 (1977)     114 (1950)      113 (2015)
DTS  108 (2009)     107 (2013)      112 (1934)
SAC  108 (2009)     107 (2013)      109 (1950)
MYV  111 (2009)
SCK  110 (2009)     106 (2013)      110 (1972)
MOD  111 (2009)     109 (2009)      108 (1950) [DISC]

The short-wave along the southeastern California/southern Nevada border is another feature to be monitored as it works its way northward today and Wednesday… bringing some monsoonal moisture with it and the chance of thunderstorms… mainly S of Tahoe. Most of the activity should be E of the Sierra Crest. Late Wednesday and Thursday the aforementioned upper trough is expected to weaken the ridge over Northern California initiating some minor cooling and continuing a small chance of thunder over a portion of the mountains… although moisture is lacking. (JHM [Lahaina/West Maui HI]) 

THE SHORT-WAVE ALONG THE SERN CA/SRN NV BORDER IS ANOTHER FEATURE TO
BE MONITORED AS IT WORKS ITS WAY NWD TODAY AND WED...BRINGING SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH IT AND THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS...MAINLY S OF
TAHOE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF THE SIERRA CREST. LATE
WED AND THU THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE OVER NORCAL INITIATING SOME MINOR COOLING AND CONTINUING A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER A PORTION OF THE MTNS...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LACKING.   JHM [DISC]

Extended discussion (Saturday through Tuesday). A broad upper level trough will remain situated along the West Coast this upcoming weekend and into early next week. Dry weather is expected through this time period, with seasonal temperatures (low 90s across the valley) and stronger onshore flow through the Delta. (Dang) 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
(LOW 90S ACROSS THE VALLEY) AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
DELTA. DANG [DISC]

Aviation. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions expected for the terminals during the next 24 hour period. Light wind shifts are expected for the Sacramento area and in the northern valley overnight. 

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. LIGHT WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SACRAMENTO AREA AND
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. [AVIA]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • None. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

28 Jun 1:02pm PDT

This Afternoon Mostly sunny, with a high near 93°. West wind around 9 mph.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 69°. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 92°. ESE wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west in the morning.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 67°. West wind around 8 mph becoming ENE in the evening.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 91°. ENE wind 6 to 8 mph becoming WSW in the morning.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 66°.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 88°.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 63°.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 84°.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 61°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 83°.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 61°.
Independence Day Sunny, with a high near 83°.
This Afternoon
Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. West wind around 9 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. East southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west in the morning.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 67. West wind around 8 mph becoming east northeast in the evening.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 91. East northeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west southwest in the morning.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 88.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 83.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
Independence Day
Sunny, with a high near 83.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: