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FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 051712 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 051712
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 10:12am PDT Sun Jul 5 2015 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1012 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Cooler the next few days along with daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly over the mountains. Thunderstorm coverage may increase over the mountains… SAC [Sacramento CA] Valley and surrounding foothills on Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper low over the eastern Pacific moves towards the California coast. 

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SAC VALLEY AND SURROUNDING
FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES TOWARDS THE CA COAST. [DISC]

Discussion. (today through Wednesday) morning thunderstorm activity over Shasta County is dissipating and shifting north. Low pressure area remains off the coast and will be our greatest concern this week. 

.DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SHASTA COUNTY IS DISSIPATING
AND SHIFTING NORTH. LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND
WILL BE OUR GREATEST CONCERN THIS WEEK. [DISC]

The other shorter term concern is with strong winds in the Delta. Marine layer along the coast has increased to around 2500 feet this morning. Issued a Wind Advisory for the Delta since the winds are expected to stay strong all day. This will bring in cooler air to the interior and high temperatures for Sacramento might stay in the 80s today with the current thinking we will have a high of about 88. I will put out an adjusted temperature forecast in a bit for the interior. Slight chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue over the mountains near the crest. 

THE OTHER SHORTER TERM CONCERN IS WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE DELTA.
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 2500 FEET
THIS MORNING. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELTA SINCE THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY STRONG ALL DAY. THIS WILL BRING IN
COOLER AIR TO THE INTERIOR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SACRAMENTO
MIGHT STAY IN THE 80S TODAY WITH THE CURRENT THINKING WE WILL HAVE
A HIGH OF ABOUT 88. I WILL PUT OUT AN ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IN A BIT FOR THE INTERIOR. SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR
THE CREST. [DISC]

Very moist monsoonal moisture continues to move northward over the area this week. Cooler temperatures are expected through at least mid week with decent Delta breezes continuing along with chances for higher elevation mountain thunderstorms. Models continue to hint at an increase in activity over the northern mountains Monday night through Wednesday night along with continued chances of thunderstorm for the Sierra Nevada. As the low moves closer to the coast the low will draw moisture into the Sacramento Valley. And chances develop over the central and northern Sacramento Valley… mainly for places north of I-80. I have increased the areal coverage for chances through mid week as a result. We will continue to adjust coverage area as the low moves toward the area. I have left mention of POPs [Probability of Precipitation] out of far southern areas for now but we may need to adjust forecast based on the trajectory of the low. 

VERY MOIST MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH DECENT DELTA BREEZES CONTINUING ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA. AS THE
LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. AND CHANCES DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...MAINLY FOR PLACES NORTH OF I-80. I
HAVE INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS
A RESULT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST COVERAGE AREA AS THE LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. I HAVE LEFT MENTION OF POPS OUT OF FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR NOW BUT WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST BASED ON
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW. [DISC]

Extended discussion (Thursday through Sunday) 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) [DISC]

Medium-range models continue to struggle with the timing of the upper low as it approaches California with the GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] slightly faster moving it onshore Thursday while the EC [European Center for Meteorology (or East Central)] is about 24 hours slower with the timing. Regardless of timing, mountain thunderstorms are expected daily. Temperatures will moderate to slightly below average before warming over the weekend as the trough shifts east. 

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW AS IT APPROACHES CALIFORNIA WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOVING IT ONSHORE THURSDAY WHILE THE EC IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE TIMING. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DAILY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. [DISC]

Aviation.  

.AVIATION... [AVIA]

Mainly VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions the next 24 hours, except local MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] vicinity MTN [Baltimore/Martin MD] thunderstorms 22Z [3pm PDT]-04Z [9pm PDT]. Southerly winds 10–15 kt [12–17 mph] in the SAC [Sacramento CA] Valley (northwesterly in the SJ Valley) after 18Z [11am PDT], with SW wind gusts 25–35 kt [29–40 mph] continuing near the Delta. 

MAINLY VFR CONDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR/IFR VCNTY
MTN THUNDERSTORMS 22Z-04Z. SLY WINDS 10-15 KT IN THE SAC VLY
(NWLY IN THE SJ VLY) AFT 18Z, WITH SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT CONTG
NEAR THE DELTA. [AVI2]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Wind Advisory until 11pm PDT this evening for Carquinez Strait and Delta. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CARQUINEZ STRAIT
AND DELTA. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

This Afternoon Mostly sunny, with a high near 86°. WSW wind around 9 mph.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 63°. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 83°. Light and variable wind becoming WSW 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 62°. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 81°. Calm wind becoming WSW 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78°.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 59°.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 77°.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 59°.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78°.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 59°.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 81°.
This Afternoon
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. West southwest wind around 9 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

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