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FXUS66 KHNX [Hanford/San Joaq CA] 272155 AFDHNX 

FXUS66 KHNX 272155
AFDHNX [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 2:55pm PDT Fri Mar 27 2015 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
255 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015 [HEAD]

Synopsis. High pressure will persist over the region providing dry weather and keeping temperatures well above normal. A weak Pacific disturbance will move in over the weekend and bring slight cooling and breezy conditions along with a threat of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Crest. Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal through the weekend and into next week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING SLIGHT
COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. Little change in the forecast is expected over the central Cal interior as the upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the West Coast. While the axis of the ridge is currently over the Great Basin/inter-MTN [Baltimore/Martin MD] west… short range forecasts do have it slowly shifting east as a trough pushes onshore later tonight. Currently… Fort Ord profiler [instrument designed to measure horizontal winds directly above its location, and thus measure the vertical wind profile. Profilers operate on the same principles as Doppler radar.] is showing a shallow marine layer… but it is trending toward becoming deeper. Associated cold front forecast to push into the Bay Area tonight and advance toward the central Cal interior by Saturday morning. Therefore… will see an increase in wind speed overnight… mainly on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley… ahead of the cooler marine air. 

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CAL
INTERIOR AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/INTER-MTN WEST...SHORT RANGE PROGS DO HAVE IT SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST AS A TROF PUSHES ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...
FORT ORD PROFILER IS SHOWING A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...BUT IT IS
TRENDING TOWARD BECOMING DEEPER. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH INTO THE BAY AREA TONIGHT AND ADVANCE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CAL
INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE COOLER MARINE AIR. [DISC]

Temperatures… which have been reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s … will see a drop behind the cold front as marine air filters into the valley. Will expect as much as a ten degree-F drop in valley temp/s by Saturday afternoon as the cold front moves to the east. During the push of marine air into the valley overnight … will see surface winds blow in the range of 10–20 mph… with gusts reaching 30 mph and mainly on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley along the interstate-5 corridor. The cold front will remain dry during most of its passage… but may produce showers as the front interacts with the mountains. Therefore… due to sufficient instability and limited moisture… will keep convection to minimal chances on Saturday and Sunday. May even see a very light shower near the grapevine from clouds that bank up around the south end of the valley in a post-frontal environment. 

TEMPERATURES...WHICH HAVE BEEN REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
...WILL SEE A DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS MARINE AIR FILTERS
INTO THE VALLEY. WILL EXPECT AS MUCH AS A TEN DEGREE-F DROP IN
VALLEY TEMP/S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO
THE EAST. DURING THE PUSH OF MARINE AIR INTO THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT
...WILL SEE SURFACE WINDS BLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 MPH...
WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH...AND MAINLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ALONG THE INTERSTATE-5 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN DRY DURING MOST OF ITS PASSAGE...BUT MAY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL KEEP
CONVECTION TO MINIMAL CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAY EVEN SEE
A VERY LIGHT SHOWER NEAR THE GRAPEVINE FROM CLOUDS THAT BANK UP
AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. [DISC]

While the ridge will rebound on Monday… the ridge pattern will be have weaken. Therefore… warming temperatures will only reach into the 80s before attempts to push across the west before the middle of the week. A series of troughs are forecast to through the area during the latter park of the forecast period. Confidence in the series of trough is growing as max temperatures are now expected to reach the upper 70s toward next Thursday/Friday… still above normal. At this point… will keep the district dry after this weekends convection over the mountains. 

WHILE THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE
HAVE WEAKEN. THEREFORE...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE 80S BEFORE ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF TROFS ARE PROGGED TO THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PARK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SERIES OF TROF IS GROWING AS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S TOWARD NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE DISTRICT DRY AFTER THIS
WEEKENDS CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. [DISC]

Aviation. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions can be expected throughout the central California interior during the next 24 hours. 

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. [AVIA]

Air quality issues… none. 

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE. [DISC]

Certainty. 

.CERTAINTY... [DISC]

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. 

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM. [DISC]
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. [LINK]

Climate. Records site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year 

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR [AVIA]
KFAT 03–27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03–28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972
KFAT 03–29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891 
KFAT 03-27       87:1986     52:1924     56:1930     31:1972
KFAT 03-28       85:1986     53:1982     57:1957     33:1972
KFAT 03-29       87:1969     47:1982     59:1986     32:1891 [POPS]
KBFL 03–27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03–28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
KBFL 03–29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907 
KBFL 03-27       90:1986     50:1991     57:1978     32:1908
KBFL 03-28       88:1893     53:1998     58:1957     24:1907
KBFL 03-29       94:2004     55:1998     58:1978     23:1907 [POPS]

HNX [Hanford/San Joaq CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • None. 
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. [WARN]

Public: Molina; AVN/FW: Durfee; Synopsis: WP 

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP [CRED]
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD [LINK]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

7:55pm PDT Mar 27 2015

Tonight Clear, with a low around 45°. Calm wind becoming SE around 5 mph after midnight.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62°. SE wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44°. West wind around 5 mph becoming ESE after midnight.
Sunday A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°. East wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45°. West wind around 10 mph becoming ENE after midnight.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 64°. ENE wind 5 to 10 mph becoming WSW in the afternoon.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 41°. WSW wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 57°. ESE wind around 5 mph becoming SW in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38°. West wind around 5 mph becoming ENE after midnight.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 54°. East wind around 5 mph becoming WSW in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 37°. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 55°. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 40°. WNW wind 5 to 15 mph becoming ENE after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 55°. ENE wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 45. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. West wind around 5 mph becoming east southeast after midnight.
Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. East wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. West wind around 10 mph becoming east northeast after midnight.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 64. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 41. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 57. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 38. West wind around 5 mph becoming east northeast after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 54. East wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 37. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 55. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 40. West northwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming east northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 55. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: