Area Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KHNX [Hanford/San Joaq CA] 231043 AFDHNX ∨
FXUS66 KHNX 231043 AFDHNX [HEAD]
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 3:43am PDT Thu May 23 2013 ∨
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 343 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013 [HEAD]
Synopsis. Low pressure area is over the Pacific Northwest is bringing a cool onshore flow to central California. Temperatures will remain near normal through the early next week. ∨
.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BRINGING A COOL ONSHORE FLOW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. [DISC]
Discussion. Deep upper low pressure center over the Pacific Northwest is expected to remain nearly stationary through early next week as a series of weak impulses move through the mean NW flow over the region. Omega [term used to describe vertical motion in the atmosphere] blocking pattern over the northern tier of the US is keeping the pattern stationary through Tuesday. Strong onshore flow over the region will keep temps in check to near normal through Tuesday and we have in a chance of showers across the Sierra on Tuesday afternoon and evening as another significant trough moves through the region. We are pretty much going with climo [climatology/climatological] POPs [Probability of Precipitation] for the Sierra on Tuesday. ∨
.DISCUSSION... DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US IS KEEPING THE PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND WE HAVE IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA ON TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WE ARE PRETTY MUCH GOING WITH CLIMO POPS FOR THE SIERRA ON TUESDAY. [DISC]
GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] is much more aggressive with the trough on Tuesday and is bringing in a closed low center across the region with significantly more precipitation to the Sierra. We are not buying into this solution at this time and are leaning towards the ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] due to run to run consistency and is more in line with the ensemble mean. The ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] is bringing a trough through the region and is not as aggressive as the GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.]. ∨
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND IS BRINGING IN A CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP TO THE SIERRA. WE ARE NOT BUYING INTO THIS SOLN ATTM AND ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF DUE TO RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF IS BRINGING A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS. [DISC]
H5 [height of the 500 mb level (nominally 18,000 ft)] heights remain low through the forecast period and expect temps to remain near normal or just below normal through the forecast period. Breezy conditions are expected to continue through tonight as onshore flow continues and will be especially windy through and just below the Kern County mountain passes near Mojave. Channeling through the Pacheco Pass will also be a concern… but are expected to remain just below advisory levels of gusts to 35 mph. ∨
H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY WINDY THROUGH AND JUST BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES NEAR MOJAVE. CHANNELING THROUGH THE PACHECO PASS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN..BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADV LEVELS OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH. [DISC]
Aviation. Wind gusts of 35 knots [40 mph] or greater can be expected through and below the mountain passes of Kern County through 04Z [9pm PDT] Friday. Otherwise… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions will prevail across the central California interior. ∨
.AVIATION... WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH 04Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. [AVIA]
Air quality issues… none. ∨
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... NONE. [DISC]
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. ∨
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH. [DISC]
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. [LINK]
Climate. Records site date hi_max:year lo_max:year hi_min:year lo_min:year ∨
.CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR [AVIA]
KFAT 05–23 103:1967 65:1916 71:2000 44:1960 KFAT 05–24 103:1943 64:1916 68:2001 41:1953 KFAT 05–25 102:1890 59:1906 68:1890 42:1980 ∨
KFAT 05-23 103:1967 65:1916 71:2000 44:1960 KFAT 05-24 103:1943 64:1916 68:2001 41:1953 KFAT 05-25 102:1890 59:1906 68:1890 42:1980 [POPS]
KBFL 05–23 107:1904 67:2010 73:2000 44:1903 KBFL 05–24 107:1982 68:1980 76:1982 41:1916 KBFL 05–25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893 ∨
KBFL 05-23 107:1904 67:2010 73:2000 44:1903 KBFL 05-24 107:1982 68:1980 76:1982 41:1916 KBFL 05-25 106:1982 58:2008 77:1982 39:1893 [POPS]
HNX [Hanford/San Joaq CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ095-098-099. [WARN]
Public: JDB; AVN/FW: Durfee; Synopsis: JDB ∨
PUBLIC...JDB AVN/FW...DURFEE SYNOPSIS...JDB [CRED]
10:57am PDT May 23 2013
This Afternoon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 50°. WSW wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Tonight. Mostly clear, with a low around 36°. WSW wind 5 to 10 mph becoming NE in the evening.
Friday. Sunny, with a high near 56°. ENE wind 5 to 10 mph becoming WSW in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Friday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 38°. WSW wind around 5 mph becoming ENE in the evening.
Saturday. Sunny, with a high near 55°. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming WSW 10 to 15 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 40°. WSW wind 5 to 10 mph becoming ENE in the evening.
Sunday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 54°. Light and variable wind becoming SW 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 39°. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming ENE in the evening.
Memorial Day. Sunny, with a high near 57°. NNE wind around 5 mph becoming west in the morning.
Monday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 43°. WNW wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday. A 20% chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 57°. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming WSW in the morning.
Tuesday Night. A 30% chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45°. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Wednesday. A 20% chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 55°. North wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west in the morning.