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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 251605 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 251605
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 9:05am PDT Wed May 25 2016 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
905 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Showers and isolated thunderstorms again today, mainly over the higher elevations. Dry and warmer by the weekend. 

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRY AND WARMER BY THE WEEKEND. [DISC]

Discussion. Clear to partly cloudy skies across interior Northern California early this morning. Current temperatures are mainly in the 30s and 40s in the mountains with 50s elsewhere. 

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. [DISC]

The large upper trough that has kept the cool and unsettled weather pattern going across the region over the past several days remains overhead Northern California, but most of the energy has consolidated into a closed low that is now just off the Southern California coast near vandenberg. This low will move east into the lower Colorado River Valley today before lifting out into the central plains by the end of the week, gradually replaced over Northern California by ridging from the eastern Pacific. 

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS KEPT THE COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN GOING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REMAINS OVERHEAD NORCAL, BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS CONSOLIDATED
INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT IS NOW JUST OFF THE SOCAL COAST NEAR
VANDENBERG. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, GRADUALLY REPLACED OVER NORCAL BY RIDGING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. [DISC]

With the lack of a larger scale trigger, deep convection today as a result of orographic lifting will be mostly confined to the mountains. There is some potential that showers and thunderstorms that initiate over the Coast Range this afternoon may propagate into western portions of the valley (mostly to the west and northwest of Sacramento) late in the day. 

WITH THE LACK OF A LARGER SCALE TRIGGER, DEEP CONVECTION TODAY
AS A RESULT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFTING WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT INITIATE OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROPAGATE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY (MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF SACRAMENTO) LATE IN THE DAY. [DISC]

The trend will be for less mountain convection each day heading into the holiday weekend with temperatures returning to around average late-may readings. 

THE TREND WILL BE FOR LESS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EACH DAY HEADING
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND
AVERAGE LATE-MAY READINGS. [DISC]

Extended discussion (Sunday through Wednesday) 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) [DISC]

Mid range models in general agreement in placing upper trough axis east of the state by Sunday so have taken shower threat out of all areas for second half of weekend. Daytime highs should remain a little above normal Sunday under mainly fair skies. Models remain in good agreement through the early part of next week in sliding upper ridge over the West Coast for continued fair and dry conditions. Daytime highs will continue to creep up reaching to as high as about 10° above normal for late May by Tuesday. Long range models hinting at a ridge break down starting around mid week but at this time… have left forecast area under mainly fair and dry conditions as it appears that Northern California will remain generally under the influence of the upper ridge. 

MID RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN PLACING UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY SO HAVE TAKEN SHOWER THREAT
OUT OF ALL AREAS FOR SECOND HALF OF WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY UNDER MAINLY FAIR SKIES.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK IN SLIDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FOR CONTINUED FAIR
AND DRY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UP
REACHING TO AS HIGH AS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY
BY TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT A RIDGE BREAK DOWN
STARTING AROUND MID WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT FORECAST
AREA UNDER MAINLY FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS AS IT APPEARS THAT
NORCAL WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. [DISC]

Aviation.  

.AVIATION... [AVIA]

Mainly VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions in the valley with local stratus and MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings vicinity of KSAC [Sacramento CA] eroding by 19Z [12pm PDT]. Coastal valley low clouds eroding more slowly. Areas MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] to local IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions likely over the mountains after 20Z [1pm PDT] in scattered showers and thunderstorms… more numerous over Sierra Nevada with less coverage over the coastal range. 

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY WITH LOCAL STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS
VCNTY OF KSAC ERODING BY 19Z. COASTAL VALLEY LOW CLOUDS ERODING
MORE SLOWLY. AREAS MVFR TO LCL IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 20Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MORE
NUMEROUS OVER SIERNEV WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL RANGE. [AVI2]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • None. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

25 May 9:02am PDT

Today Isolated showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57°. West wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44°. Calm wind becoming ENE around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63°. SE wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°. ENE wind around 5 mph.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69°. ENE wind around 7 mph becoming WSW in the morning.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 48°.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 70°.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 68°.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°.
Memorial Day Sunny, with a high near 70°.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 53°.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 72°.
Today
Isolated showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. West wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. East northeast wind around 5 mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. East northeast wind around 7 mph becoming west southwest in the morning.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 70.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 68.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 52.
Memorial Day
Sunny, with a high near 70.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 72.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: