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FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 242219 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 242219
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 3:19pm PDT Sat Jun 24 2017 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
319 PM PDT SAT JUN 24 2017 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Cooling expected for the entire region Sunday into early next week. Isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms possible over portions of mountains through Sunday. 

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLING EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. [DISC]

Short term discussion (tonight through Tuesday)… Delta breeze cooling today in the Delta-influenced areas while the excessive heat continue for the northern and central Sacramento Valley adjacent foothills. Upper ridge from the desert SW extends northwest over the Pacific Northwest, turning mid level flow more southerly to southeasterly today. However, high resolution rapid refresh models generally keep thunderstorm activity southward of Hwy 50 in the Sierra. 

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DELTA BREEZE COOLING TODAY IN THE DELTA-INFLUENCED AREAS WHILE
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SACRAMENTO VALLEY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE DESERT
SW EXTENDS NORTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TURNING MID
LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY. HOWEVER, HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD OF HWY 50 IN THE SIERRA. [DISC]

Upper ridging shifts east into the Great Basin Sunday as the upper trough approaches the coast. This will help deepen the marine layer and strengthen onshore flow. Some synoptic cooling will also result and expect a 5–10° drop in Max temperatures from today to Sunday. Threat of isolated afternoon thunderstorms continues over the Sierra Nevada Sunday and possibly along the coastal range as some models hint at Vort Max [Vorticity Maximum, the highest value of positive vorticity (point location) within a region of positive vorticity] lifting across that area in southerly flow aloft. Cooling continues on Monday and Tuesday as weakening upper trough shifts north and east. (Jclapp) 

UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS WILL HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER AND STRENGTHEN ONSHORE FLOW. SOME SYNOPTIC COOLING WILL ALSO
RESULT AND EXPECT A 5 TO 10 DEGREE DROP IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY TO SUNDAY. THREAT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
COASTAL RANGE AS SOME MODELS HINT AT VORT MAX LIFTING ACROSS THAT
AREA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. COOLING CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST.
JCLAPP [DISC]

Extended discussion (Wednesday through Saturday) upper troughing moves through Wednesday helping to keep temperatures somewhat moderated. Dynamics look weak and not expecting any weather with this wave. Upper ridging builds over the area Thursday bringing some warming. Ridging weakens Friday and is replaced with another upper trough Saturday. Models differ with depth of this wave but current forecast leans towards weaker EC [European Center for Meteorology (or East Central)] solution which implies little impact on temperatures or weather. 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT MODERATED. DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK AND NOT
EXPECTING ANY WEATHER WITH THIS WAVE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING SOME WARMING. RIDGING WEAKENS FRIDAY
AND IS REPLACED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER
WITH DEPTH OF THIS WAVE BUT CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS WEAKER
EC SOLUTION WHICH IMPLIES LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES OR
WEATHER. [DISC]

Aviation. Southerly flow aloft as upper ridge over Northern California moves into Great Basin. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions over interior Northern California next 24 hours except isolated MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] possible in mtn showers/thunderstorms between 23Z [4pm PDT]-03Z [8pm PDT] possible isolated MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] in St vicinity of Delta between 10Z [3am PDT]-19Z [12pm PDT]. Southwesterly surface wind gusts up to 35 kts [40 mph] possible through Carquinez Strait between 00Z [5pm PDT] and 18Z [11am PDT] Sun. 

.AVIATION...
SLY FLOW ALF AS UPR RDG OVR NORCAL MOVS INTO GRT BASIN. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS IN MTN SHWRS/TSTMS
BTWN 23Z-03Z POSS ISOLD MVFR/IFR IN ST VCNTY OF DELTA BTWN 10Z-
19Z. SWLY SFC WND GSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSS THRU CARQUINEZ STRAIT
BTWN 00Z AND 18Z SUN. [AVIA]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Heat Advisory until 11pm PDT this evening for central Sacramento Valley-clear lake/southern Lake County-motherlode-mountains southwestern Shasta County to northern Lake County-northeast foothills/Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake area / northern Shasta County-western Plumas County/Lassen Park. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-MOTHERLODE-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA /
NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK. [WARN]
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. [WRN2]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

24 Jun 5:45pm PDT

Tonight Clear, with a low around 59°. SW wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 94°. SSW wind 9 to 13 mph.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58°. South wind 8 to 13 mph.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 92°. SW wind 8 to 11 mph.
Monday Night Clear, with a low around 56°. South wind 8 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 91°.
Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 56°.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 93°.
Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 59°.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 94°.
Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 59°.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 95°.
Friday Night Clear, with a low around 61°.
Saturday Sunny and hot, with a high near 96°.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 59. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 94. South southwest wind 9 to 13 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. South wind 8 to 13 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 92. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 56. South wind 8 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 91.
Tuesday Night
Clear, with a low around 56.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 93.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low around 59.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 94.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 59.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 95.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 61.
Saturday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 96.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: