Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 201924 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 201924 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco California 12:24pm PDT Mon May 20 2024 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2024 [HEAD] New synopsis, short term, long term. ∨ ...NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... [DISC] Synopsis. Issued at 12:24pm PDT Monday May 20 2024 ∨ .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2024 [DISC] Typical summer-like pattern to persist throughout the first half of the week. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages by the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region. ∨ TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. [DISC] Short term. (this evening through Tuesday) issued at 12:24pm PDT Monday May 20 2024 ∨ .SHORT TERM... (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2024 [DISC] Weak offshore flow aloft is resulting in dry weather conditions this afternoon with minimum relative humidity values between 15–35% for inland areas and those higher up in elevation. Meanwhile, the coast continues to experience onshore flow with higher humidity. Humidity increases overnight in all but the highest elevations with lows generally in the mid-to-upper 40's to low-to-mid 50's. ∨ WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15-35% FOR INLAND AREAS AND THOSE HIGHER UP IN ELEVATION. MEANWHILE, THE COAST CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. HUMIDITY INCREASES OVERNIGHT IN ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 40`S TO LOW-TO-MID 50`S. [DISC] RH [Relative Humidity] values will be even lower tomorrow as offshore flow aloft persists and will drive drier conditions even closer to the coast. As such, tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with mid 80's across the interior and 60's to lower 70's near the coast. People who are incredibly sensitive to heat should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink plenty of water. ∨ RH VALUES WILL BE EVEN LOWER TOMORROW AS OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AND WILL DRIVE DRIER CONDITIONS EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS SUCH, TOMORROW WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MID 80`S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 60`S TO LOWER 70`S NEAR THE COAST. PEOPLE WHO ARE INCREDIBLY SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS WHILE OUTDOORS AND REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. [DISC] Long term. (Tuesday night through next Sunday) issued at 12:24pm PDT Monday May 20 2024 ∨ .LONG TERM... (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 1224 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2024 [DISC] By late week, temperatures cool to near seasonal averages across the interior but coastal locations will still be slightly cooler due to onshore flow. By this upcoming weekend, temperatures region-wide drop below average as a mid/upper level trough more directly impacts the region. This systems looks fairly dry with ensemble guidance indicating very low chances of accumulating precipitation with it Friday into Saturday morning. If any precipitation does fall it will be light and not very impactful. Guidance from the climate prediction center indicates slightly below average temperatures and slightly above average precipitation through the end of the month. ∨ BY LATE WEEK, TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE DROP BELOW AVERAGE AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEMS LOOKS FAIRLY DRY WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING VERY LOW CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WITH IT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES FALL IT WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT VERY IMPACTFUL. GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. [DISC] Aviation. (18Z [11am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 10:35am PDT Monday May 20 2024 ∨ .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1035 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2024 [AVIA] MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] stratus is clearing across the Central Coast Valleys and will completely mix out later this morning. Breezy and gusty onshore winds will develop in the afternoon, with the gusts generally up to 20 knots [23 mph] at the terminals. Generally VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions for the interior through the night, with moderate confidence (40–60% probability) of patchy MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] stratus developing early Tuesday morning around Monterey Bay and a lower confidence (10–20% probability) of further development elsewhere on the coast south of the Golden Gate. ∨ MVFR STRATUS IS CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST VALLEYS AND WILL COMPLETELY MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE GUSTS GENERALLY UP TO 20 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40-60% PROBABILITY) OF PATCHY MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND A LOWER CONFIDENCE (10-20% PROBABILITY) OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ON THE COAST SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. [AVI2] Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Breezy and gusty west-northwest winds with gusts up to 25–28 knots [29–32 mph] developing later this afternoon, diminishing in the evening and resuming Tuesday afternoon. Probability of gusts above 35 knots [40 mph] is near zero. ∨ VICINITY OF SFO... VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY AND GUSTY WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-28 KNOTS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING AND RESUMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS IS NEAR ZERO. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] stratus will clear out later this morning. Breezy northwest winds will develop in the afternoon and diminish in the evening. Model output shows a moderate confidence (40–60% probability) of some patchy MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] stratus around the region early Tuesday morning, with the period of highest probability from 10–16Z [3–9am PDT]. Probabilities for stratus are higher in the area north of MRY [Monterey CA] and south of WVI [Watsonville CA]. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... MVFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40-60% PROBABILITY) OF SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS AROUND THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY FROM 10-16Z. PROBABILITIES FOR STRATUS ARE HIGHER IN THE AREA NORTH OF MRY AND SOUTH OF WVI. [AVI2] Marine. (today through Saturday) issued at 9:07am PDT Monday May 20 2024 ∨ .MARINE... (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 907 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2024 [AVIA] Strong and gusty northwest winds persist over the coastal waters through Thursday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves during the week. Winds look to ease later in the week. ∨ STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AND STEEPER WIND WAVES DURING THE WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO EASE LATER IN THE WEEK. [AVI2] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM. [WARN]
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM. [WRN2]
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM. [WRN2]
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM. [WRN2]
SHORT TERM...RGASS LONG TERM....RGASS AVIATION...DIALH MARINE...DIALH [WRN2] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC] |
Point Forecast Half Moon Bay Airport 20 May 01:55pm PDT This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 60°. WNW wind around 11 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 48°. WNW wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 63°. NW wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°. WNW wind 5 to 13 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°. NW wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49°. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58°. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57°. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 57°. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 58°. This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 60. West northwest wind around 11 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 48. West northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 63. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. West northwest wind 5 to 13 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Northwest wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 58. |
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