Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 191146 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 191146 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco California 4:46am PDT Tue Mar 19 2024 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 446 AM PDT TUE MAR 19 2024 [HEAD] New aviation. ∨ ...NEW AVIATION... [DISC] Synopsis. Issued at 3:01am PDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024 ∨ .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 301 AM PDT TUE MAR 19 2024 [DISC] Despite the increase in coastal stratus, rain will stay out of the forecast through Thursday. By Friday, a cold front will bring periods of light to moderate rain and cooler temperatures through the weekend. ∨ DESPITE THE INCREASE IN COASTAL STRATUS, RAIN WILL STAY OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. [DISC] Short term. (today and tonight) issued at 3:01am PDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024 ∨ .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 AM PDT TUE MAR 19 2024 [DISC] The current low-cloud enhanced IR [Infra-Red] satellite image looks a lot like early summer with a stratus-filled marine layer intruding into coastal areas and neighboring valleys. The cloud base is a few hundred feet lower than yesterday, and the Fort Ord profiler [instrument designed to measure horizontal winds directly above its location, and thus measure the vertical wind profile. Profilers operate on the same principles as Doppler radar.] is measuring the marine layer depth at around 1,000 ft. This makes patchy fog possible later this morning, and there is some indication of mist beginning to form on regional traffic cameras. The HRRR has a great handle on the current stratus coverage, and suggests the low clouds will break by mid-day, allowing another sunny and warm afternoon. ∨ THE CURRENT LOW-CLOUD ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGE LOOKS A LOT LIKE EARLY SUMMER WITH A STRATUS-FILLED MARINE LAYER INTRUDING INTO COASTAL AREAS AND NEIGHBORING VALLEYS. THE CLOUD BASE IS A FEW HUNDRED FEET LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, AND THE FT. ORD PROFILER IS MEASURING THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT AROUND 1,000 FT. THIS MAKES PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING, AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF MIST BEGINNING TO FORM ON REGIONAL TRAFFIC CAMERAS. THE HRRR HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT STRATUS COVERAGE, AND SUGGESTS THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK BY MID-DAY, ALLOWING ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON. [DISC] Long term. (Wednesday through Monday) issued at 3:01am PDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024 ∨ .LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM PDT TUE MAR 19 2024 [DISC] Wednesday and Thursday will be similar to Tuesday. Marine layer stratus and patchy fog in the morning will give way to clear afternoons and warmer than average temperatures. The pattern will change on Friday as a cold front approaches from the eastern Pacific. Moderate southerly winds will shift to westerly in the afternoon. Light to moderate rain is also expected on Friday, although a few stronger showers are possible as the surface front moves through. Unsettled weather will persist Saturday, although precipitation will be more hit-or-miss showers compared to Friday. Lingering light showers will likely persist into Sunday. In addition to the rain and wind, the temperature will be noticeably colder this weekend. Expect coastal areas to stay in the 50s, while some inland valleys break into the low 60s. As an example of this cool-down, Pinnacles national park recorded a high temperature of 79°F Monday. The forecast high for Sunday is only 59°F. ∨ WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR AFTERNOONS AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND WIND, THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT COASTAL AREAS TO STAY IN THE 50S, WHILE SOME INLAND VALLEYS BREAK INTO THE LOW 60S. AS AN EXAMPLE OF THIS COOL-DOWN, PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 79F MONDAY. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR SUNDAY IS ONLY 59F. [DISC] Aviation. (12Z [5am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 4:46am PDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024 ∨ .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 446 AM PDT TUE MAR 19 2024 [AVIA] IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] to LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] conditions across the board. Primarily stratus throughout the Bay Area and Central Coast with patches of fog mixed in. Fog is starting to develop at STS [Santa Rosa CA] with visibility rapidly dropping over the last hour. Increased chances for temporary fog development at SNS [Salinas CA] to continue through the early morning hours with temporary dips in visibility and ceiling height possible. Elsewhere, visibilities are expected to stay above 6 sm but temporary drops in visibility may be possible. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions will return by mid to late morning between 17–19Z [10am–12pm PDT]. Winds are light and primarily out of the NW tonight with stronger W to SW winds expected to return during the day. Guidance is hinting that stratus is likely to return after 06Z [11pm PDT] tomorrow with some potential for fog development in the North Bay. ∨ IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD. PRIMARILY STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG MIXED IN. FOG IS STARTING TO DEVELOP AT STS WITH VISIBILITY RAPIDLY DROPPING OVER THE LAST HOUR. INCREASED CHANCES FOR TEMPORARY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SNS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPORARY DIPS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING HEIGHT POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 6SM BUT TEMPORARY DROPS IN VISIBILITY MAY BE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING BETWEEN 17-19Z. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NW TONIGHT WITH STRONGER W TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT STRATUS IS LIKELY TO RETURN AFTER 06Z TOMORROW WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH BAY. [AVI2] Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions. Conditions will start to improve by 20Z [1pm PDT] with guidance suggesting conditions may start improving as early as 18Z [11am PDT]. Light SW winds overnight will strengthen to moderate W to NW winds during the day and continue overnight. Moderate confidence that stratus will return to SFO [San Francisco CA] by 10Z [3am PDT] tomorrow with guidance hinting decreases in ceiling heights are likely. ∨ VICINITY OF SFO...IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY 20Z WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CONDITIONS MAY START IMPROVING AS EARLY AS 18Z. LIGHT SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE W TO NW WINDS DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL RETURN TO SFO BY 10Z TOMORROW WITH GUIDANCE HINTING DECREASES IN CEILING HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] to LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] conditions to continue through the remainder of the night. Patchy fog has been moving in and out of SNS [Salinas CA] overnight. Some potential remains through 14–16Z [7–9am PDT] for temporary drops in visibility and ceiling heights at SNS [Salinas CA] as patchy fog moves over the airport. At MRY [Monterey CA], fog development is not expected but temporary decreases in visibility may be possible between 13–16Z [6–9am PDT]. Light, variable winds overnight with winds strengthening and turning westerly to northwesterly during the day. Tomorrow night, winds will become light and variable again with stratus likely to return between 04–06Z [9–11pm PDT]. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN MOVING IN AND OUT OF SNS OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS THROUGH 14-16Z FOR TEMPORARY DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING HEIGHTS AT SNS AS PATCHY FOG MOVES OVER THE AIRPORT. AT MRY, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED BUT TEMPORARY DECREASES IN VISIBILITY MAY BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 13-16Z. LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND TURNING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. TOMORROW NIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO RETURN BETWEEN 04-06Z. [AVI2] Marine. (today through Sunday) issued at 3:01am PDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024 ∨ .MARINE... (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM PDT TUE MAR 19 2024 [AVIA] High pressure to continue through mid week with an incoming low pressure system moving into the area on Thursday. Gentle NW winds and dry conditions will linger through Wednesday before winds strengthen and become more southerly late Wednesday into Thursday. Rain chances will increase over the waters late Thursday with elevated precipitation chances continuing into the weekend. A moderate period northwesterly swell continues to diminish with a new, longer period northwesterly swell train arriving Thursday. ∨ HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. GENTLE NW WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH A NEW, LONGER PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVING THURSDAY. [AVI2] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WARN]
SHORT TERM...FLYNN LONG TERM....FLYNN AVIATION...KENNEDY MARINE...KENNEDY [WRN2] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC] |
Point Forecast Half Moon Bay Airport 19 Mar 04:55am PDT Today Partly sunny, with a high near 58°. NW wind 6 to 9 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46°. NW wind 6 to 8 mph. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 59°. WNW wind 5 to 9 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°. WNW wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light west after midnight. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62°. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°. Friday A 40% chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 61°. Friday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. Saturday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 58°. Saturday Night A chance of rain, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48°. Sunday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 57°. Sunday Night A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°. Monday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 57°. Today Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 59. West northwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. West northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light west after midnight. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Friday A 40 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 61. Friday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Saturday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Saturday Night A chance of rain, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Sunday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Sunday Night A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Monday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 57. |
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