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FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 242032 AFDSTO ∨

FXUS66 KSTO 242032
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 1:32pm PDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
132 PM PDT WED APR 24 2024 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Cool and unsettled weather this week. A chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains today. Precipitation chances increase Thursday afternoon and Friday as a weather system moves through, best chances in the foothills and mountains. ∨

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK. A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, BEST CHANCES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. [DISC]

Discussion. Afternoon goes satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies across interior Northern California. Near to slightly below average temperatures are forecast this afternoon. Northern California remains in between systems as upstream short-wave energy approaches from the Gulf of Alaska and the closed low moves into Southern California later today. Another round of isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly over the northern mountains and the northern Sierra south of Highway 50. The NBM indicates a 10–20% chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ∨

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORCAL REMAINS IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SOCAL LATER TODAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE NBM INDICATES A 10-20%
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. [DISC]

Ensembles show the next wave sliding southward later Thursday into Friday, bringing the potential for light showers. Best shower chances will be over the foothills and mountains. Little to no impacts are expected with this system. WPC [Weather Prediction Center] guidance indicates less than 0.10" in the valley, and generally around 0.10–0.50" over the foothills and mountains. A few inches of snowfall accumulation will be possible over the higher elevations (snow levels above 6–7 kft) in the Sierra, but travel impacts will likely be minimal. The NBM projects a 15–30% probability of thunderstorm development Friday afternoon and evening. Lightning, brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop. ∨

ENSEMBLES SHOW THE NEXT WAVE SLIDING SOUTHWARD LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES
LESS THAN 0.10" IN THE VALLEY, AND GENERALLY AROUND 0.10-0.50"
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 6-7K FT) IN THE SIERRA, BUT TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL. THE NBM PROJECTS A 15-30% PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING,
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. [DISC]

Dry conditions return Saturday as riding from the eastern Pacific builds into the region. Forecast highs will be in the low to 70s across the valley, 60s to low 70s over the foothills, and upper 40s to low 60s over the mountains. ∨

DRY CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AS RIDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO 70S
ACROSS THE VALLEY, 60S TO LOW 70S OVER THE FOOTHILLS, AND UPPER
40S TO LOW 60S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. [DISC]

Extended discussion (Sunday through Wednesday). Dry weather Sunday as weak short wave ridging moves through interior Northern California. Cluster analysis is in decent agreement on general weak ridging/zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] remaining across Northern California into next week. By mid next week, ensembles diverge and variation of solutions spreads, so confidence beyond Monday is somewhat low. Potential scenarios being displayed in the clusters includes continued zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] with ridging centered across the southwest and troughing to our north across the Pacific Northwest, and then variability on how deep the northern trough could dig and associated timing difference with it. Stay tuned as details become more clear for the forecast next week. ∨

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH
INTERIOR NORCAL. CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW REMAINING ACROSS NORCAL INTO NEXT
WEEK. BY MID NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES DIVERGE AND VARIATION OF
SOLUTIONS SPREADS, SO CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS SOMEWHAT LOW.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS BEING DISPLAYED IN THE CLUSTERS INCLUDES
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW WITH RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE PACNW, AND THEN VARIABILITY
ON HOW DEEP THE NORTHERN TROUGH COULD DIG AND ASSOCIATED TIMING
DIFFERENCE WITH IT. STAY TUNED AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR FOR
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

//Peters ∨

//PETERS [CRED]

Aviation. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions over next 24 hours except for MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions in isolated showers or thunderstorms over the mountains through 03Z [8pm PDT]-06Z [11pm PDT] Thursday. A weather system will bring showers to interior Northern California Thursday afternoon-Friday, with areas of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions after 18Z [11am PDT] Thursday. Surface wind mainly below 12 kts [14 mph] except vicinity of Delta with southwesterly winds up to 18 kts [21 mph] after 00Z [5pm PDT] Thursday. Increasing southwesterly winds after 18Z [11am PDT] Thursday, mainly over the mountains and vicinity of Delta. ∨

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
03Z-06Z THURSDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO INTERIOR
NORCAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY, WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WIND MAINLY BELOW 12 KTS
EXCEPT VICINITY OF DELTA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 18 KTS
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VICINITY OF DELTA. [AVIA]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None. ∨

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. [WARN]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 242032 AFDSTO ∨ FXUS66 KSTO 242032 AFDSTO [HEAD] National Weather Service Sacramento California 1:32pm PDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 132 PM PDT WED APR 24 2024 [HEAD] Synopsis. Cool and unsettled weather this week. A chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains today. Precipitation chances increase Thursday afternoon and Friday as a weather system moves through, best chances in the foothills and mountains. ∨ .SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK. A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, BEST CHANCES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. [DISC] Discussion. Afternoon goes satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies across interior Northern California. Near to slightly below average temperatures are forecast this afternoon. Northern California remains in between systems as upstream short-wave energy approaches from the Gulf of Alaska and the closed low moves into Southern California later today. Another round of isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly over the northern mountains and the northern Sierra south of Highway 50. The NBM indicates a 10–20% chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ∨ .DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORCAL REMAINS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SOCAL LATER TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE NBM INDICATES A 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. [DISC] Ensembles show the next wave sliding southward later Thursday into Friday, bringing the potential for light showers. Best shower chances will be over the foothills and mountains. Little to no impacts are expected with this system. WPC [Weather Prediction Center] guidance indicates less than 0.10" in the valley, and generally around 0.10–0.50" over the foothills and mountains. A few inches of snowfall accumulation will be possible over the higher elevations (snow levels above 6–7 kft) in the Sierra, but travel impacts will likely be minimal. The NBM projects a 15–30% probability of thunderstorm development Friday afternoon and evening. Lightning, brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop. ∨ ENSEMBLES SHOW THE NEXT WAVE SLIDING SOUTHWARD LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS THAN 0.10" IN THE VALLEY, AND GENERALLY AROUND 0.10-0.50" OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6-7K FT) IN THE SIERRA, BUT TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. THE NBM PROJECTS A 15-30% PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. [DISC] Dry conditions return Saturday as riding from the eastern Pacific builds into the region. Forecast highs will be in the low to 70s across the valley, 60s to low 70s over the foothills, and upper 40s to low 60s over the mountains. ∨ DRY CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AS RIDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO 70S ACROSS THE VALLEY, 60S TO LOW 70S OVER THE FOOTHILLS, AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. [DISC] Extended discussion (Sunday through Wednesday). Dry weather Sunday as weak short wave ridging moves through interior Northern California. Cluster analysis is in decent agreement on general weak ridging/zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] remaining across Northern California into next week. By mid next week, ensembles diverge and variation of solutions spreads, so confidence beyond Monday is somewhat low. Potential scenarios being displayed in the clusters includes continued zonal flow [Large-scale atmospheric flow in which the east-west component is dominant] with ridging centered across the southwest and troughing to our north across the Pacific Northwest, and then variability on how deep the northern trough could dig and associated timing difference with it. Stay tuned as details become more clear for the forecast next week. ∨ .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH INTERIOR NORCAL. CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON GENERAL WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW REMAINING ACROSS NORCAL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MID NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES DIVERGE AND VARIATION OF SOLUTIONS SPREADS, SO CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS SOMEWHAT LOW. POTENTIAL SCENARIOS BEING DISPLAYED IN THE CLUSTERS INCLUDES CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW WITH RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE PACNW, AND THEN VARIABILITY ON HOW DEEP THE NORTHERN TROUGH COULD DIG AND ASSOCIATED TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH IT. STAY TUNED AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR FOR THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. [DISC] //Peters ∨ //PETERS [CRED] Aviation. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions over next 24 hours except for MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions in isolated showers or thunderstorms over the mountains through 03Z [8pm PDT]-06Z [11pm PDT] Thursday. A weather system will bring showers to interior Northern California Thursday afternoon-Friday, with areas of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions after 18Z [11am PDT] Thursday. Surface wind mainly below 12 kts [14 mph] except vicinity of Delta with southwesterly winds up to 18 kts [21 mph] after 00Z [5pm PDT] Thursday. Increasing southwesterly winds after 18Z [11am PDT] Thursday, mainly over the mountains and vicinity of Delta. ∨ .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS OVER NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03Z-06Z THURSDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO INTERIOR NORCAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY, WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WIND MAINLY BELOW 12 KTS EXCEPT VICINITY OF DELTA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 18 KTS AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VICINITY OF DELTA. [AVIA] STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories None. ∨ .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. [WARN]	Point Forecast Mather CA 25 Apr 12:15am PDT Overnight Mostly clear, with a low around 49°. SE wind around 6 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 70°. SSW wind 6 to 11 mph. Thursday Night A 20% chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°. South wind 7 to 11 mph. Friday A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 69°. SSE wind 6 to 8 mph becoming SW in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47°. WNW wind 5 to 9 mph becoming SE in the evening. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 74°. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 48°. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 77°. Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 48°. Monday Sunny, with a high near 78°. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 50°. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 80°. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50°. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 77°. Overnight Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. South southwest wind 6 to 11 mph. Thursday Night A 20 percent chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind 7 to 11 mph. Friday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47. West northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southeast in the evening. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 74. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 77. Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 48. Monday Sunny, with a high near 78. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 50. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 80. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 77.
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