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FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 191122 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 191122
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 4:22am PDT Thu Oct 19 2017 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
422 AM PDT THU OCT 19 2017 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Increasing clouds and cooler temperatures today. Rain chances along with high mountain snow and gusty winds this evening and Friday. This will be followed by a warming trend early next week with above normal temperatures through the week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. Pacific frontal system now moving into the Pacific Northwest will be moving into northwest California this afternoon. Increasing cloud cover and increased onshore flow along with airmass cooling will bring 10° or more of cooling today. By this afternoon the coastal range will see a chance of light rain. Southwest flow aloft and orographics will bring a slight threat of showers over the northern Sierra and southern Cascades. Main frontal band moves through during the nighttime hours tonight will bring a good chance of rain to most of the CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] with snow at the higher elevations. Expected rainfall amounts in the valley range fairly light at about 1/10th to 3/10ths of an inch. Orographics over the Sierra could squeeze out over an inch of precipitation. Tightest surface pressure gradient will be this evening. Could see winds at Wind Advisory criteria especially over the Sierra Cascade Range but the stronger winds will likely be relatively short lived. Front shifts east of the CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] by Friday morning with shower threat ending most locations. Upper troughing will continue to feed cool air into the region so highs on Friday will range from 10–15° below normal. Upper ridging begins to build over the eastern Pacific Friday afternoon with continued ridging on Saturday. Disturbances slipping over this ridge will bring a threat of showers to the northern zones through Saturday. Clearer skies and warming airmass will bring daytime highs up to close to normal for this time of year by Sunday afternoon. This warming trend will continue going in to next week. 

.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH AIRMASS COOLING
WILL BRING 10 DEGREES OR MORE OF COOLING TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON
THE COASTAL RANGE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND OROGRAPHICS WILL BRING A SLIGHT THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND SOUTHERN CASCADES. MAIN FRONTAL BAND MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS TONIGHT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE CWA WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEY RANGE FAIRLY
LIGHT AT ABOUT 1/10TH TO 3/10THS OF AN INCH. OROGRAPHICS OVER THE
SIERRA COULD SQUEEZE OUT OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. TIGHTEST
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THIS EVENING. COULD SEE WINDS AT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA CASCADE RANGE
BUT THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWER THREAT
ENDING MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO FEED COOL
AIR INTO THE REGION SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED RIDGING ON
SATURDAY. DISTURBANCES SLIPPING OVER THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEARER
SKIES AND WARMING AIRMASS WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS UP TO CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE GOING IN TO NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Extended discussion (Monday through Thursday) 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) [DISC]

Upper level ridge persists next week maintaining a dry and warm pattern for our CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map]. Daytime highs will range 6–14° above normal during the extended forecast period. Valley highs will stay in the low to mid 80s while mountain highs range 60s and 70s. (JBB) 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING A DRY AND WARM
PATTERN FOR OUR CWA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE 6-14 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. VALLEY HIGHS WILL STAY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHILE MOUNTAIN HIGHS RANGE 60S AND 70S. JBB [DISC]

Aviation.  

.AVIATION... [AVIA]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions with light winds… local haze/smoke MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] visibility is possible in the Delta and surrounding terminals this morning. Valley and ridge winds will increase this afternoon, especially over the ridgetops and North Sacramento Valley. Gusts at TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites could range between 15–25 kts [17–29 mph] in the afternoon/evening hours, then decrease after 06Z [11pm PDT]. Precipitation will move into interior Northern California around 00Z [5pm PDT] and impact TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites through Friday morning with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings possible at times. (JBB) 

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOCAL HZ/FU MVFR VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
VALLEY AND RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE RIDGETOPS AND NORTH SACRAMENTO VALLEY. GUSTS AT TAF SITES
COULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, THEN
DECREASE AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR NORCAL
AROUND 00Z AND IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. JBB [AVI2]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

19 Oct 3:55am PDT

Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 68°. SSE wind 7 to 9 mph.
Tonight Rain, mainly after 11pm. Low around 47°. SSW wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65°. SW wind 6 to 8 mph.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 41°. WNW wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 71°. Calm wind becoming NW around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 76°.
Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 47°.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 82°.
Monday Night Clear, with a low around 50°.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 84°.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50°.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 83°.
Today
Increasing clouds, with a high near 68. South southeast wind 7 to 9 mph.
Tonight
Rain, mainly after 11pm. Low around 47. South southwest wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. West northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 45.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 47.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 82.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 50.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 83.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: