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FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 211036 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 211036
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 2:36am PST Tue Nov 21 2017 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
236 AM PST TUE NOV 21 2017 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Mainly dry weather this week with rain chances limited to far Northern California. Wetter system possible early next week. 

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO FAR
NORTHERN CA. WETTER SYSTEM POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. High pressure has begun to build into California from the south, bringing clearer skies and forcing the upstream atmospheric river northward. A few light showers are still present mainly along the Northern California coast. Nighttime satellite imagery suggests extensive coverage of low stratus with some fog across the region. Northerly surface winds are keeping fog from becoming dense thus far however. 

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTH,
BRINGING CLEARER SKIES AND FORCING THE UPSTREAM ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
NORTHWARD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT MAINLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN CA COAST. NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS EXTENSIVE
COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WITH SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE KEEPING FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE THUS FAR
HOWEVER. [DISC]

Warm temperatures with mainly dry weather are expected the next couple of days under strengthening high pressure. Look for high temperatures to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across the valley, with 50s and 60s over the mountains. These forecast high temperatures are 5–10° warmer than normal for this time of year, and may be within a couple of degrees of record high temperatures. 

WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
VALLEY, WITH 50S AND 60S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, AND MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. [DISC]

With clearing skies and light winds, valley fog may develop over the next few mornings. The most likely areas will be from around Sacramento southward, and favored mountain basins. 

WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE FROM AROUND
SACRAMENTO SOUTHWARD, AND FAVORED MOUNTAIN BASINS. [DISC]

A weak weather system may make its way into Northern California on Thanksgiving, and may bring a few showers to the region. This isn't expected to significantly impact holiday travel however. 

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORCAL ON
THANKSGIVING, AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS
ISN`T EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL HOWEVER. [DISC]

Dang 

DANG [CRED]

Extended discussion (Saturday through Tuesday) 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) [DISC]

Shortwave will move through the area on Saturday into early Sunday. Majority of moisture plume will be pointed toward the Pacific Northwest so local area will just catch the tail end of precipitation. Shower chances will be mainly for I-80 northward with heaviest amounts in the mountains. Still not a big soaker by any means and snow levels will remain high. 

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. MAJORITY OF MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POINTED TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW SO LOCAL AREA WILL JUST CATCH THE TAIL END OF
PRECIPITATION. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR I-80 NORTHWARD
WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL NOT A BIG SOAKER BY
ANY MEANS AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH. [DISC]

Parent low and associated trough will then approach the area Sunday night and move through on Monday. Models are in better agreement than past several runs so confidence in forecast is increasing, though still some uncertainty with precipitation amounts. Regardless, this system should bring better chances for more widespread precipitation, again heaviest amounts in the mountains. The difference with this wave is that snow levels look to drop below pass levels on Monday as colder air moves in. This will bring accumulations down to 5000–6000 feet and possible travel delays over mountain passes. Mild temperatures expected for the weekend, cooling off a bit by Monday. 

PARENT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS SO CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS
INCREASING, THOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, AGAIN HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS WAVE IS THAT SNOW LEVELS LOOK
TO DROP BELOW PASS LEVELS ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS
WILL BRING ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO 5000-6000 FEET AND POSSIBLE
TRAVEL DELAYS OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND, COOLING OFF A BIT BY MONDAY. [DISC]

CEO 

CEO [CRED]

Aviation.  

.AVIATION... [AVIA]

Areas of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] will be possible this morning and again on Wednesday morning due to patchy fog and low ceilings. Improving to VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions during the day. Winds remain under 10 knots [12 mph]

AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS. IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. [AVI2]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • None. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

21 Nov 10:45am PST

Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 69°. Calm wind.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 49°. Light north wind.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73°. Light and variable wind.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51°. Light north wind.
Thanksgiving Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 71°. Light and variable wind.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 70°.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°.
Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 69°.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°.
Sunday A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67°.
Sunday Night A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Monday A chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Light north wind.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Light north wind.
Thanksgiving Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Light and variable wind.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 69.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Sunday
A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Monday
A chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: