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FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 250649 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 250649
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 10:48pm PST Sat Feb 24 2018 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1048 PM PST SAT FEB 24 2018 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Below normal temperatures will continue. Additional systems next week will bring more widespread precipitation. The first system with very low snow levels will move into the region Sunday night and Monday. 

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST SYSTEM WITH
VERY LOW SNOW LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. [DISC]

Discussion. Update: clearing occurring over most of the CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] as the weather system moves across the Great Basin. The exception is low cloudiness stubbornly persisting over the higher elevations of the Sierra and may not mix-out/erode overnite. 

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE: CLEARING OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE CWA AS THE WX SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE EXCEPTION IS LOW CLOUDINESS
STUBBORNLY PERSISTING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND
MAY NOT MIX-OUT/ERODE OVERNITE. [DISC]

Short wave energy off the BC coast will be diving southward on Sunday on a more westerly track (off the West Coast) than the system last Thursday. Looks as if this system will have a little more moisture to work with than Thursday's system and its more westerly track will result in a better chance of precipitation in the valley. Similar snowfall amounts to the Thursday system are expected over the Sierra with this next system. (JHM [Lahaina/West Maui HI]) 

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE B.C. COAST WILL BE DIVING SWD ON SUN ON A
MORE WLY TRACK (OFF THE W COAST) THAN THE SYSTEM LAST THU. LOOKS AS
IF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN
THU`S SYSTEM AND ITS MORE WLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIP IN THE VALLEY. SIMILAR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE THU
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.  JHM [DISC]

Previous discussion. A weak system is moving into the Great Basin this afternoon and may produce some light showers along the western slopes into the evening hours before drying out. Another cold night is in store for the interior although temperatures should be a little bit warmer than this morning's lows. 

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DRYING OUT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE
INTERIOR ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER THAN
THIS MORNINGS LOWS. [DISC]

The next system is looking like it will bring widespread precipitation to Northern California Sunday night and Monday. This system will be dropping down from the north and will have a lot of cold air associated with it. As the system moves south late Sunday night and Monday morning the models are indicating some enhancement over the motherlode. Have issued a Winter Storm Watch for now due to the amount of snowfall and timing of the event likely having significant impacts on travel Monday morning over the motherlode and western slopes. 2–5 inches of snow is expected above 2000 feet for the motherlode with lessor amounts possible down to around 1500 feet. 

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL HAVE A LOT
OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MOTHERLODE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR NOW DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL AND TIMING OF THE EVENT
LIKELY HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TRAVEL MONDAY MORNING OVER
THE MOTHERLODE AND WESTERN SLOPES. 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR THE MOTHERLODE WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FEET. [DISC]

Further north have issued an advisory since the amounts are expected to be much lighter but snow levels will drop to 1500 feet… possibly around 1000 feet over Shasta County with some snow likely accumulating along I-5 north of Shasta Lake. 

FURTHER NORTH HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY SINCE THE AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 1500
FEET...POSSIBLY AROUND 1000 FEET OVER SHASTA COUNTY WITH SOME SNOW
LIKELY ACCUMULATING ALONG I-5 NORTH OF SHASTA LAKE. [DISC]

The system will taper from north to south during the day on Monday and Monday evening for the southern forecast areas. Some convective showers with brief heavy precipitation and small hail may occur behind the front mainly Monday afternoon. 

THE SYSTEM WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS. SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SMALL HAIL
MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. [DISC]

Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected to develop behind the front on Monday and persist into Tuesday for the valley. The strongest winds look like they will be over the north and west end of the valley. Northerly winds will continue on Tuesday but wind speeds are not expected to be as strong. Tuesday will be a day in between systems with warmer daytime highs. 

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR THE VALLEY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE OVER THE NORTH AND WEST END
OF THE VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. TUESDAY WILL BE A DAY
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS. [DISC]

Extended discussion (Wednesday through Saturday) 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) [DISC]

The wet pattern continues through the extended period as another winter storm is slated to impact the area. Current model runs bring the storm in a little earlier than previous forecasts. Rain and snow showers now forecast to impact the higher elevations and northern counties Wednesday afternoon before spreading to the valley overnight Wednesday. Heavy precipitation is expected Thursday throughout the area with another wave of precipitation moving in Friday into Saturday. Currently, this storm system is forecast to bring substantial precipitation accumulations to the area. Liquid precipitation amounts of 0.5–1.5 inches in the valley and 1.5–4 inches in the foothills and mountains are expected. Forecast snow amounts are on the order to 2–3 feet at pass level with significant snowfall possible down to 3000 feet. Strong winds are forecast with this system, especially over the mountains, which could bring additional impacts to the mountain passes. Details are still changing with this weather system this far out, so stay tuned to future updates on this storm. (Hec) 

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WINTER STORM IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE AREA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS
BRING THE STORM IN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS NOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING TO THE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CURRENTLY, THIS STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
AREA. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE
VALLEY AND 1.5 TO 4 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE
EXPECTED. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ON THE ORDER TO 2 TO 3 FEET AT
PASS LEVEL WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE DOWN TO 3000 FEET.
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. DETAILS ARE STILL CHANGING WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM THIS
FAR OUT, SO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE UPDATES ON THIS STORM. HEC [DISC]

Aviation.  

.AVIATION... [AVIA]

VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions next 24 hours except local MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions over the mountains due to scattered snow showers through 6Z [10pm PST] Sunday. Winds less than 12 kts [14 mph] at TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites except for gusts up to 20 kts [23 mph] from KRBL [Red Bluff CA] northward through 0Z [4pm PST] Sunday. 

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 6Z SUNDAY.
WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS AT TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
FROM KRBL NORTHWARD THROUGH 0Z SUNDAY. [AVI2]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Winter Weather Advisory from 9pm Sunday to 2pm PST Monday for Burney Basin ( eastern Shasta County-northeast foothills/Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake area ) northern Shasta County-western Plumas County/Lassen Park. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM PST MONDAY FOR
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHEAST
FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA
COUNTY-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK. [WARN]
  • Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for motherlode-west slope northern Sierra Nevada. 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MOTHERLODE-WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. [WRN2]

Point Forecast

Mather CA

24 Feb 9:00pm PST

Tonight Patchy frost after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 31°. ESE wind around 6 mph becoming NNW after midnight.
Sunday Patchy frost before 10am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 59°. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night Rain, mainly after 4am. Low around 40°. SSE wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Monday Rain before 10am, then showers likely, mainly between 10am and 4pm. High near 52°. SSE wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Monday Night A 30% chance of showers before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 35°. North wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 59°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 36°.
Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 56°.
Wednesday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40°.
Thursday Showers. Cloudy, with a high near 53°.
Thursday Night Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40°.
Friday Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54°.
Friday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37°.
Saturday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 56°.
Tonight
Patchy frost after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 31. East southeast wind around 6 mph becoming north northwest after midnight.
Sunday
Patchy frost before 10am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 59. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Rain, mainly after 4am. Low around 40. South southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Monday
Rain before 10am, then showers likely, mainly between 10am and 4pm. High near 52. South southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Monday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 59.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 56.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Thursday
Showers. Cloudy, with a high near 53.
Thursday Night
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40.
Friday
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.
Friday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Saturday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 56.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: