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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KSTO [Sacramento/WFO CA] 172240 AFDSTO 

FXUS66 KSTO 172240
AFDSTO [HEAD]

National Weather Service Sacramento California 3:40pm PDT Thu Aug 17 2017 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
340 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2017 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Temperatures near to slightly above normal with a threat of afternoon/evening mountain thunderstorms. 

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A THREAT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. [DISC]

Discussion (today through Saturday). At 3pm, temperatures across interior Northern California Valley were generally in the 90s except for upper 80s closer to the Delta region and a little over 100 around Redding. High pressure is building over the eastern Pacific and is causing a warming trend for our for Northern California. Expect a little more warming this afternoon as daytime highs should peak between 94–104 in the valley… mid 70s to low 90s across higher terrain… 80s in the Delta. 

.DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AT 3 PM, TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL VALLEY WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 90S EXCEPT FOR UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE DELTA REGION AND
A LITTLE OVER 100 AROUND REDDING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND IS CAUSING A WARMING TREND FOR OUR FOR
NORCAL. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 94 TO 104 IN THE VALLEY...MID 70S TO LOW
90S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...80S IN THE DELTA. [DISC]

As forecast, we're seeing a few cells of convection over the Sierra near and just north of yosemite on radar this afternoon. These thunderstorms are popping up as small cells and trend forecast to weaken soon after developing. However, they can still produce small hail, lightning, and locally gusty winds. 

AS FORECAST, WE`RE SEEING A FEW CELLS OF CONVECTION OVER THE
SIERRA NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF YOSEMITE ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP AS SMALL CELLS AND TEND TO
WEAKEN SOON AFTER DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THEY CAN STILL PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. [DISC]

Warming trend peaks tomorrow as much of our forecast area nudges up the thermometer by a degree or two. The hot spot will again be the Redding area reaching around 106°. The chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms over mountains is expected again tomorrow and through the rest of the short-term forecast period. However, daytime highs will gradually trend cooler over the weekend. (JBB) 

WARMING TREND PEAKS TOMORROW AS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA NUDGES
UP THE THERMOMETER BY A DEGREE OR TWO. THE HOT SPOT WILL AGAIN BE
THE REDDING AREA REACHING AROUND 106 DEGREES. THE CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED AGAIN
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER OVER THE
WEEKEND.  JBB [DISC]

Extended discussion (Monday through Thursday) an upper level low will be setting up off the coast of Southern California to start the extended period on Saturday. This will push moisture north into Northern California and bring a chance for mountain thunderstorms during the afternoon and for both Sunday and Monday. There could be enough moisture to see some clouds in the valley, but widespread cloud cover is not expected. Tuesday moisture will decrease and should limit the thunderstorm chances, but still could see some activity mainly over the coastal range of tahama and Shasta Counties. On Wednesday the upper level low pushes east as a trough moves south out of the Gulf of Alaska. This will bring unstable conditions for the end of the period but mountain thunderstorm chances look limited. Overall temperatures will be seasonal throughout the period to maybe a few degrees below normal on Tuesday. 

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SETTING UP OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH MOISTURE NORTH INTO NORCAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE VALLEY,
BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED. TUESDAY MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AND SHOULD LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT STILL
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE OF TAHAMA
AND SHASTA COUNTIES. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST
AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK LIMITED. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TO MAYBE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ON TUESDAY. [DISC]

Aviation. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions the next 24 hours at the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] sites. Winds under 10 knots [12 mph] except in the Delta where gusts to 30 knots [35 mph] will be possible. Afternoon thunderstorms and Cb [cumulonimbus; towering cumulus] possible over the Sierra this afternoon and through the early evening. 

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE DELTA WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND CB POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. [AVIA]

STO [Sacramento/WFO CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • None. 
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. [WARN]

Point Forecast

Auburn CA

17 Aug 11:15pm PDT

Tonight Clear, with a low around 66°. SE wind around 6 mph.
Friday Sunny and hot, with a high near 96°. Light and variable wind becoming SW 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 67°. SW wind around 6 mph becoming ESE after midnight.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 95°. SE wind around 5 mph becoming WSW in the morning.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 65°. SW wind around 8 mph becoming SE in the evening.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 93°.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 66°.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 89°.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 63°.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 88°.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 62°.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 89°.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 61°.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 89°.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 66. Southeast wind around 6 mph.
Friday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming east southeast after midnight.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 95. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the morning.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Southwest wind around 8 mph becoming southeast in the evening.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 93.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 88.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 62.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 89.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 89.

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