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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 060543 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 060543
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:43pm PDT Thu May 5 2016 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016 [HEAD]

Synopsis. An upper level low off of the central California coast will shift inland over Southern California on Friday and result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Friday evening. Scattered showers will likely linger into Saturday with dry weather expected to return to most areas by Sunday. Dry weather is then forecast through the middle of next week along with a gradual warming trend. 

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 9:10pm PDT Thursday… scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occurred across portions of our forecast area today. This convective precipitation was triggered by an upper low that is currently centered about 100 miles southwest of Monterey. The most significant rainfall to occur from today's shower activity was at Pinnacles national park where 0.33" was recorded. In other locations where rain fell today… amounts were mostly less than a tenth of an inch. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 PM PDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS TRIGGERED BY AN
UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MONTEREY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO OCCUR FROM TODAY`S
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS AT PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK WHERE 0.33" WAS
RECORDED. IN OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY...AMOUNTS WERE
MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. [DISC]

A line of intense showers and thunderstorms developed just to the east of Santa Clara and San Benito Counties late this afternoon. But this convective activity either weakened considerably or dissipated as it moved to the northwest towards the Santa Clara and Hollister Valleys this evening. Now that the sun has set all activity has diminished and expect only isolated showers overnight. 

A LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
EAST OF SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EITHER WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OR
DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SANTA CLARA
AND HOLLISTER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET ALL
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. [DISC]

The cutoff low [A closed upper-level low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from basic westerly current, and moves independently of that current. Cutoff lows may remain nearly stationary for days, or on occasion may move westward opposite to the prevailing flow aloft] is forecast to move gradually to the southeast overnight and then turn to the east and inland over Southern California on Friday morning. Meanwhile… a shortwave trough rotating around the low is forecast to move across our area on Friday morning and early Friday afternoon. The models all show an organized area of precipitation with this shortwave… tracking from northeast to southwest across our area tomorrow. However… precisely where that precipitation will be focused is difficult to say given differing model solutions. The 00Z [5pm PDT] NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] forecasts this area of precipitation to track across the central SF Bay Area from mid morning to early afternoon. The 00Z [5pm PDT] GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] and latest HRRR model both indicate this precipitation will be focused across eastern Alameda and Santa Clara Counties and south into San Benito County. Given model differences… believe it's best not to try to pinpoint areas of highest precipitation potential and instead continue to distribute chance POPs [Probability of Precipitation] across our forecast area rather uniformly. Thunderstorms are a possibility once again tomorrow. However… because the shortwave trough will have rotated out of our area prior to the best surface heating in the afternoon… thunderstorm potential will be somewhat diminished. 

THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN TO THE EAST AND INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN CA ON FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIP WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...TRACKING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...PRECISELY WHERE THAT PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY GIVEN DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z NAM FORECASTS
THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL SF BAY AREA FROM
MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL
BOTH INDICATE THIS PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN ALAMEDA
AND SANTA CLARA COUNTIES AND SOUTH INTO SAN BENITO COUNTY. GIVEN
MODEL DIFFERENCES...BELIEVE IT`S BEST NOT TO TRY TO PINPOINT
AREAS OF HIGHEST PRECIP POTENTIAL AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO
DISTRIBUTE CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA RATHER UNIFORMLY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE ROTATED OUT OF
OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE BEST SURFACE HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED. [DISC]

The upper low is forecast to lift to the northeast and into the southern Great Basin by Saturday. The models agree that moisture will continue to wrap around the low and across our area on Saturday and that instability will remain sufficient for scattered showers to continue. However… thunderstorm chances will have faded considerably by then. 

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HAVE
FADED CONSIDERABLY BY THEN. [DISC]

A few showers may linger into Sunday morning… but for the most part Sunday looks to be a dry day with temperatures near average. 

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. [DISC]

Dry weather will then continue through the middle part of next week as an upper ridge builds near the West Coast. This ridge will also mean a gradual warming trend for much of next week. Longer range models hint at the possibility of another cutoff low [A closed upper-level low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from basic westerly current, and moves independently of that current. Cutoff lows may remain nearly stationary for days, or on occasion may move westward opposite to the prevailing flow aloft] impacting our area by the following weekend (May 14 and 15). 

DRY WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL
ALSO MEAN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER
RANGE MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
IMPACTING OUR AREA BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND (MAY 14 AND 15). [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:30pm PDT Thursday… upper level low west of the Central Coast moving towards Southern California. Isolated showers are confined to the hills this evening while patchy low clouds are along the coast. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] expected to spread over the Monterey Bay Area this evening and into the SF Bay Area later tonight. An upper level disturbance rotating around the low will bring a chance of showers to the area Friday morning. These showers will be coming from the northeast. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings expected most of the day Friday. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm Friday afternoon. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
THE CENTRAL COAST MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE HILLS THIS EVENING WHILE PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COAST. MVFR EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE MRY
BAY AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE SFO BAY AREA LATER TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BE COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings after 12Z [5am PDT] continuing through the rest of the day. Scattered showers after 16Z [9am PDT]. Mainly light southwest winds. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 16Z. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar as KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings after 08Z [1am PDT]. A few showers possible after 17Z [10am PDT]

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 10:30pm PDT Thursday… low pressure developing over Nevada will moderate northerly winds to the outer waters north of Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] and light south winds elsewhere through Friday. An upper level low off the central California coast will move into Southern California on Friday. This will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight and Friday. 

.MARINE...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER NEVADA WILL MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF PT REYES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Today: Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Dykema; Aviation: W PI; Marine: DRP 

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: DRP [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Montara CA

06 May 1:35am PDT

Overnight A 20% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. SSW wind around 8 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday A 50% chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 58°. South wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday Night A 30% chance of showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday A 40% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60°. West wind 3 to 6 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday Night A 20% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light SSW in the evening. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday A 20% chance of showers before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 62°.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49°.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 63°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49°.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65°.
Overnight
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. South southwest wind around 8 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 58. South wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. West wind 3 to 6 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south southwest in the evening. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 62.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 63.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: