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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 300501 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 300501
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:01pm PDT Fri Jul 29 2016 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1001 PM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Typical summertime conditions will continue over the next several days with low clouds/fog and cool temperatures near the coast along with warm conditions inland. A gradual cooling trend is forecast for inland areas from Saturday through Monday as an upper level trough develops across the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. Smokey conditions will continue over portions of the Monterey Bay Area northward into the South Bay. 

.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND COOL TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE COAST ALONG WITH WARM CONDITIONS INLAND. A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND IS FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SMOKEY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MONTEREY BAY AREA NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH BAY. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 9:00pm PDT Friday… there has been very little change in our weather from yesterday to today. Afternoon highs today varied by more than 40° across the San Francisco Bay Area. For instance, the high in foggy Half Moon Bay today was 60°, 42° cooler than the 102° high posted in Livermore. Across our entire forecast area the high temperature spread was even larger, ranging from a chilly 56 at Ocean Beach in San Francisco to 110 at Pinnacles national park (a 54° difference). 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...THERE HAS BEEN VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY VARIED BY MORE THAN 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA. FOR INSTANCE, THE HIGH IN FOGGY HALF MOON BAY
TODAY WAS 60 DEGREES, 42 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE 102 DEGREE HIGH
POSTED IN LIVERMORE. ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE SPREAD WAS EVEN LARGER, RANGING FROM A CHILLY 56 AT
OCEAN BEACH IN SAN FRANCISCO TO 110 AT PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK (A
54 DEGREE DIFFERENCE). [DISC]

An upper level trough is forecast to gradually develop over the Pacific Northwest and far Northern California through the weekend and into the early part of next week. This will result in modest cooling for inland areas by Sunday and Monday as the marine layer deepens slightly. In addition, southerly flow which has already developed aloft is forecast to develop near the surface by tomorrow morning, especially for areas near the coast. These southerly winds will bring about additional cooling for some coastal areas and valleys that open to the south. Look for temperatures by Sunday and Monday to be 5–10° cooler for most inland areas, and locally as much as 15° cooler. Just how much cooling occurs will depend on just how much the marine layer deepens, which is always a challenge to forecast. 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
COOLING FOR INLAND AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY. IN ADDITION, SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE BY
TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING ABOUT ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR SOME
COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS THAT OPEN TO THE SOUTH. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS, AND LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES COOLER. JUST
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS, WHICH IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST. [DISC]

Smoke from the soberanes fire is drifting the northeast this evening, across the northern Salinas Valley and southern Santa Clara Valley. Winds are forecast to continue out of the southwest through the weekend, perhaps backing a bit more to due south at times. Thus, areas to the north and northeast of the soberanes fire will probably continue to be affected by smoke through the weekend. 

SMOKE FROM THE SOBERANES FIRE IS DRIFTING THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, ACROSS THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SANTA
CLARA VALLEY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PERHAPS BACKING A BIT MORE TO DUE SOUTH AT
TIMES. THUS, AREAS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SOBERANES
FIRE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SMOKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. [DISC]

One additional item to watch over the next few days is mid level moisture and instability that will be increasing across Southern California over the weekend. The 00Z [5pm PDT] NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] brings some of this increased mid level moisture and instability as far north as Monterey County on Monday. If the NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] were to verify, there would be concern for isolated high-based convection across the southern part of our region early next week. However, the GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] keeps nearly all moisture and instability well to our south and east and even the NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] solution shows very nominal values of mid level moisture and instability. So, the potential for isolated thunderstorms across the southern part of our area next week appears to be very low and there is not sufficient confidence to add it to the forecast for now. 

ONE ADDITIONAL ITEM TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z NAM BRINGS SOME OF THIS
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS FAR NORTH AS
MONTEREY COUNTY ON MONDAY. IF THE NAM WERE TO VERIFY, THERE WOULD
BE CONCERN FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE GFS KEEPS NEARLY
ALL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND EVEN
THE NAM SOLUTION SHOWS VERY NOMINAL VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. SO, THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE VERY
LOW AND THERE IS NOT SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO ADD IT TO THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. [DISC]

Very little change is anticipated going through next week, with temperatures expected to be near normal. 

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:01pm PDT Friday… a strong mid-upper level high center will remain near KLAS [Las Vegas NV] while a weak and dry surface-mid level low center develops over the Eastern Pacific and overlaps the coastal waters tonight and Saturday. Onshore winds persist with a marine layer 1,000 feet deep. Onshore winds will combine with southerly flow over the inner coastal waters while southerly flow aloft persists area-wide in between aforementioned high and low centers this weekend. Areas of haze and smoke persist. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:01 PM PDT FRIDAY...A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN NEAR KLAS WHILE A WEAK AND DRY SURFACE-MID
LEVEL LOW CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE EPAC AND OVERLAPS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST WITH A MARINE
LAYER 1,000 FEET DEEP. ONSHORE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS AREA-WIDE IN BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOW CENTERS
THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF HAZE AND SMOKE PERSIST. [AVIA]

Subtle 925 mb level cooling is forecast into early Saturday morning followed by steadier cooling Saturday–Sunday likely causing the marine layer to remain nearly unchanged in depth tonight then deepen Saturday–Sunday. IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] and LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings and visibilities due to stratus and fog along the coastline persist with intrusions into the San Francisco Bay and northern Salinas Valley late tonight and Saturday morning, more in the way of stratus and fog moving inland is anticipated Saturday night and Sunday. 

SUBTLE 925 MB LEVEL COOLING IS FORECAST INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
FOLLOWED BY STEADIER COOLING SATURDAY-SUNDAY LIKELY CAUSING THE
MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED IN DEPTH TONIGHT THEN
DEEPEN SATURDAY-SUNDAY. IFR AND LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG ALONG THE COASTLINE PERSIST WITH INTRUSIONS INTO THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AND NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATUS AND FOG MOVING INLAND IS
ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. [AVI2]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… W-NW winds near 10 knots [12 mph] tonight, resuming to gusty west winds to 20 knots [23 mph] Saturday afternoon and evening. (VFR [Visual Flight Rules].) 

VICINITY OF KSFO...W-NW WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS TONIGHT, RESUMING TO
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]/LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] tonight, light onshore winds. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]/VFR [Visual Flight Rules] returns by late Saturday morning. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR TONIGHT, LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. MVFR/VFR
RETURNS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 9:17pm PDT Friday… northwest winds will persist over the northern outer waters while southwest to south winds develop over the remainder of the coastal waters this weekend. Onshore winds will continue into the bays strongest each afternoon and evening. A longer period southerly swell will mix with northwesterly swell through this weekend. 

.MARINE...AS OF 9:17 PM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHILE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BAYS STRONGEST EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MIX WITH
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 11 PM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Dykema; Aviation/Marine: Canepa 

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Montara CA

29 Jul 11:55pm PDT

Overnight Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°. South wind around 7 mph.
Saturday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 61°. South wind 9 to 11 mph.
Saturday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°. South wind 9 to 14 mph.
Sunday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61°. South wind 11 to 14 mph.
Sunday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°. South wind 5 to 9 mph.
Monday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Monday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Tuesday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Tuesday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Wednesday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Wednesday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Thursday Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Thursday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Friday Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Overnight
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind around 7 mph.
Saturday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. South wind 9 to 11 mph.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind 9 to 14 mph.
Sunday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61. South wind 11 to 14 mph.
Sunday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind 5 to 9 mph.
Monday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Monday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Tuesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Tuesday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Wednesday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Thursday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Friday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: