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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 251152 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 251152
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 4:52am PDT Sat Apr 25 2015 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
452 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015 [HEAD]

Synopsis. A fast-moving cold front will spread light to moderate rain across the area this morning. Precipitation is expected to end by this afternoon. High pressure will produce warm and dry conditions on Sunday and Monday. A cooling trend will develop by the middle of next week as a dry upper trough develops over Northern California. 

.SYNOPSIS...A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL
DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRY UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 3:03am PDT Saturday… a fast moving cold front is currently moving across the area. Currently the main area of precipitation is occurring from the San Francisco Peninsula up through the East Bay counties. It appears that rain has ended across Sonoma and Napa Counties and light rain has just started in Watsonville. So far rainfall totals in the North Bay have ranged from around a tenth of an inch to over 3/4 of an inch and around a third of an inch so far in downtown San Francisco. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:03 AM PDT SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO
PENINSULA UP THROUGH THE EAST BAY COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT RAIN
HAS ENDED ACROSS SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES...AND LIGHT RAIN HAS
JUST STARTED IN WATSONVILLE. SO FAR RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE NORTH
BAY HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OVER 3/4 OF AN
INCH...AND AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH SO FAR IN DOWNTOWN SAN
FRANCISCO. [DISC]

Rainfall will continue to push south into the southern third of the district by daybreak… then taper off as the system moves south and east out of the CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] by late morning or early afternoon. Breezy conditions will persist through the afternoon… especially near the coast… where sustained northwest winds of 10–20 mph with locally stronger gusts… will be likely. 

RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE DISTRICT BY DAYBREAK...THEN TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST...WHERE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS...WILL BE LIKELY. [DISC]

High pressure is then forecast to rebuild over the eastern Pacific for warming conditions Sunday and Monday across the area. Monday is expected to be the warmest day of the week with highs expected to range from the 60s to 80s. An upper level trough is then forecast to move onshore for cooler weather on Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Conditions will remain dry. 

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FOR WARMING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE 60S TO 80S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE FOR COOLER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 4:52am PDT Saturday… KMUX [Santa Clara/88D CA] Doppler radar is showing the trailing edge of the cold front moving into the South Bay Area… bringing an end to rain in the San Francisco and Oakland area. Showers will continue in San Jose for a few more hours with rain in the Monterey and Salinas area expected to persist into the late morning hours. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front persisting into the afternoon hours. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:52 AM PDT SATURDAY...KMUX DOPPLER RADAR IS
SHOWING THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTH
BAY AREA...BRINGING AN END TO RAIN IN THE SAN FRANCISCO AND
OAKLAND AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN SAN JOSE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS WITH RAIN IN THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS AREA EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions with an occasional shower are expected to improve to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] around 1500Z [8am PDT]. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] broken 025 anticipated by 1800Z [11am PDT] and VFR [Visual Flight Rules] by 2000Z [1pm PDT]. Gusty westerly winds 20 kt [23 mph] gusting to 30 kt [35 mph] are anticipated to persist all day today into the evening hours. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CONDITIONS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 1500Z. MVFR BKN025 ANTICIPATED
BY 1800Z AND VFR BY 2000Z. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 20 KT GUSTING TO
30 KT ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST ALL DAY TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. [AVI2]

Confidence is moderate. 

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay Area terminals… light rain with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions are expected to prevail today with occasional IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] conditions possible between 1200 and 1600Z [5–9am PDT] this morning. Showers are expected to end by 1700Z [10am PDT]. Winds are expected to be gusty throughout the day today reaching 10–15 kt [12–17 mph] with gusts to 20 kt [23 mph] possible. 

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 1200 AND 1600Z THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BY 1700Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
REACHING 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. [AVI2]

Confidence is moderate. 

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 01:54am PDT Saturday… a cold front is passing over the coastal waters this morning bringing light rain showers along for the ride. The front will exit the area this afternoon with northwesterly winds increasing behind the front. Moderate northerly winds are forecast to prevail through midweek as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific and the surface pressure gradient strengthens. The strengthening winds will result in deteriorating sea conditions. 

.MARINE...AS OF 01:54 AM PDT SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS PASSING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG FOR THE RIDE. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN
DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Today: Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] from 5pm Small Craft AdvisoryPt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] from 5pm Small Craft AdvisoryPt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 7pm Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] from 7pm Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 5pm Small Craft AdvisoryPt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] from 2pm Small Craft Advisory…SF Bay north of the Bay Bridge from 2pm Small Craft Advisory…SF Bay south of the Bay Bridge from 2pm 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 7 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM
SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Sims; Aviation/Marine: Larry 

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY [CRED]
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Montara CA

3:44am PDT Apr 25 2015

Today Showers likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55°. West wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46°. NW wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58°. NW wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47°. NW wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°. WNW wind 8 to 10 mph.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46°.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 58°.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47°. Breezy.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 58°.
Today
Showers likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. West wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Northwest wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Northwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Northwest wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. West northwest wind 8 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 58.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Breezy.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 58.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: