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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 251722 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 251722
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:22am PDT Fri Jul 25 2014 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1022 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014 [HEAD]

Synopsis. High pressure and sunny skies will result in warm to hot weather today across the Bay Area. Some subtle cooling is possible on Saturday… mainly near the coast as a stronger sea breeze develops but warm to hot weather will continue inland. No big changes through early next week as high pressure continues with dry weather over the Bay Area and continued seasonably warm temperatures away from the coast. 

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN WARM TO
HOT WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SOME SUBTLE COOLING IS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS BUT WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INLAND. NO
BIG CHANGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE BAY AREA AND CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 9:15am PDT Friday… mostly clear skies are being reported across forecast area this morning. Temperatures are expected to rise rapidly today under these clear skies. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to reach 22°C over the Bay Area today with generally light surface winds. This will result in afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s in the North Bay… 80s to 90s in the Bay Area… 90s to 105 in the East Bay and upper 70s to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s overnight. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE RAPIDLY TODAY UNDER THESE CLEAR SKIES. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 22 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE BAY
AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE NORTH
BAY...80S TO 90S IN THE BAY AREA...90S TO 105 IN THE EAST BAY AND
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. [DISC]

850 mb temperatures remain warm through the weekend reaching 25°C Sunday. However… onshore surface winds do increase Saturday and Sunday which will help to cool temperatures by 5–10° on Saturday and Sunday. 

850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING 25
DEGREES CELSIUS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS DO
INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES
BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. [DISC]

The 0000Z [5pm PDT] ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] and 0600Z [11pm PDT] GFS40 [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] have initialized well with the current synoptic pattern and remain in good agreement through the forecast period. Both models are showing a broad ridge of high pressure centered over northeast New Mexico today with 500 mb heights reaching 588 dm [decameters] over the SF Bay Area. This ridge remains centered over New Mexico through the weekend. The ridge center slides south west Sunday advecting monsoon moisture into the forecast area. This monsoon moisture will result in high clouds which will stick around through Tuesday. At this point the atmosphere appears to be to stable for any elevated convection threat. 

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 0600Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS REACHING 588DM OVER THE SF BAY AREA. THIS RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE CENTER
SLIDES SOUTH WEST SUNDAY ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE TO STABLE FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION
THREAT. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:21am PDT Friday… northerly gradient continues to be moderate at around 4 mb from SFO [San Francisco CA] to ACV [Arcata/Eureka CA]. Shallow stratus that formed along the coast affecting the Monterey Bay terminals earlier this morning has retreated to over the water. The northwesterly component of the wind will likely push more clouds into either of the terminals overnight. Otherwise VFR [Visual Flight Rules] today. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:21 AM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE AT AROUND 4 MB FROM SFO TO ACV. SHALLOW
STRATUS THAT FORMED ALONG THE COAST AFFECTING THE MRY BAY
TERMINALS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS RETREATED TO OVER THE WATER. THE
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL LIKELY PUSH MORE CLOUDS
INTO EITHER OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. West winds in the afternoon. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay Area terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] today… low clouds forming and spreading over terminals during the evening. Patchy fog possibly Saturday morning. 

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY...LOW CLOUDS FORMING AND
SPREADING OVER TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY
SATURDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

Climate. Record high temperatures for Friday July 25th along with the most recent date it occurred. * signifies there are additional years the record was set. 

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY JULY 25TH ALONG
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED. * SIGNIFIES THERE ARE
ADDITIONAL YEARS THE RECORD WAS SET. [AVIA]
SF Bay Area
.location................temp/year
Kentfield...............103/1975
San Rafael.............. 98/1975
Napa....................101/1975
San Francisco........... 82/1973
SFO Airport............. 91/1973
Oakland (downtown)...... 97/1973
Oakland Airport......... 92/1973
Livermore...............111/1980
Moffett Field........... 90/2006
San Jose................ 99/1975
Gilroy..................109/2006 
SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION................TEMP/YEAR
KENTFIELD...............103/1975
SAN RAFAEL.............. 98/1975
NAPA....................101/1975
SAN FRANCISCO........... 82/1973
SFO AIRPORT............. 91/1973
OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)...... 97/1973
OAKLAND AIRPORT......... 92/1973
LIVERMORE...............111/1980
MOFFETT FIELD........... 90/2006
SAN JOSE................ 99/1975
GILROY..................109/2006 [POPS]
Monterey Bay Area
.location................temp/year
Monterey................ 83/2006
Santa Cruz.............. 97/1973
Salinas................. 85/1975
Salinas Airport......... 87/1973
King City...............104/1973 
MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION................TEMP/YEAR
MONTEREY................ 83/2006
SANTA CRUZ.............. 97/1973
SALINAS................. 85/1975
SALINAS AIRPORT......... 87/1973
KING CITY...............104/1973 [POPS]

Marine. As of 10:17am PDT Friday… winds over the coastal waters will decrease today as the surface pressure gradient weakens. Light winds and seas will continue through the weekend except moderate northwest over the northern outer waters. 

.MARINE...AS OF 10:17 AM PDT FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL DECREASE TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
EXCEPT MODERATE NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Today: Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Larry; Aviation/Marine: Sims 

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS [CRED]
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Montara CA

4:26am PDT Jul 25 2014

Today. Sunny, with a high near 78°. NW wind around 7 mph.

Tonight. Clear, with a low around 58°. NW wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight.


Saturday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 68°. SSW wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Saturday Night. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°. SW wind 8 to 10 mph.


Sunday. Partly sunny, with a high near 67°. SW wind around 8 mph.

Sunday Night. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°.


Monday. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67°.

Monday Night. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°.


Tuesday. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67°.

Tuesday Night. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°.


Wednesday. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 66°.

Wednesday Night. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55°.


Thursday. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 64°.

  • Today Sunny, with a high near 78. Northwest wind around 7 mph.
  • Tonight Clear, with a low around 58. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight.
  • Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. South southwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
  • Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph.
  • Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind around 8 mph.
  • Sunday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
  • Monday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67.
  • Monday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
  • Tuesday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67.
  • Tuesday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
  • Wednesday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 66.
  • Wednesday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
  • Thursday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.

  • This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: