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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 110528 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 110528
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 9:28pm PST Wed Feb 10 2016 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
928 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Dry pleasant weather will continue through the rest of the week. Large westerly swell will begin to impact the coast Thursday raising the risk of sneaker waves at area beaches. 

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 9:10pm PST Wednesday… area temperatures were above normal again today. Some cooling on the immediate coast was evident by late morning as light sea-breezes commenced. Two daily record highs were tied today; Oakland Airport's 68 was previously set in 2006 and King City's 77 was previously set in 2008. A gradual cooling and dry weather will continue this week as the unseasonably strong high pressure ridge temporarily weakens and coastal low clouds and fog become more prevalent along the immediate coast… already seeing some indication of weak marine layer inversions on the area profilers. Forecast models agree 500 mb height ridging over the west… Albeit weakening through late week… will remain above February normal followed by strengthening Sun–Monday to 580–584 decameters range per recent GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] & ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] output. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 PM PST WEDNESDAY...AREA TEMPERATURES
WERE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. SOME COOLING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WAS EVIDENT BY LATE MORNING AS LIGHT SEA-BREEZES COMMENCED. TWO
DAILY RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED TODAY; OAKLAND AIRPORT`S 68 WAS
PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2006 AND KING CITY`S 77 WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN
2008. A GRADUAL COOLING AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENS
AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BECOME MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...ALREADY SEEING SOME INDICATION OF WEAK MARINE
LAYER INVERSIONS ON THE AREA PROFILERS. FORECAST MODELS AGREE 500
MB HEIGHT RIDGING OVER THE WEST...ALBEIT WEAKENING THROUGH LATE
WEEK...WILL REMAIN ABOVE FEB NORMAL FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING SUN-
MON TO 580-584 DECAMETERS RANGE PER RECENT GFS & ECMWF OUTPUT. [DISC]

Seeing consistency in the model solutions that the West Coast longwave ridge will flatten some next week. The next best chance for rain per recent model forecasts… a cold frontal system sweeping through the area later Wednesday. 

SEEING CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE WEST COAST LONGWAVE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER
RECENT MODEL FORECASTS...A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. [DISC]

Previous discussion… as of 3:00pm PST Wednesday. The current visible satellite image is showing plenty of high clouds pushing into the forecast area this afternoon as a storm system continues to slowly move towards the Pacific Northwest. The sea breeze has become established and we can now expect generally light westerly winds this afternoon into the evening hours. 

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. [DISC]

The 1200Z [4am PST] ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] and 1800Z [10am PST] GFS40 [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] have initialized well with the current synoptic weather pattern and remain in good agreement through at least the beginning of next week and have come into better agreement for a storm system expected to arrive by the middle of next week. Not many changes were made to the forecast package. However… we did add low clouds to the coastal waters for tonight into Thursday morning and once again for Thursday night into Friday morning. 

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 9:28pm PST Wednesday… high clouds will continue to stream across the region tonight. Hazy conditions expected Thursday morning between 15Z [7am PST]-18Z [10am PST]. Light winds. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:28 PM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. LIGHT WINDS. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules]

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay Area terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 9:00pm PST Wednesday… light seas and winds this evening. Increasing northwest winds will prevail through the weekend except over the northern outer waters where southwest winds will prevail tomorrow. A large long period northwest swell will begin to move into the area on Thursday and persist into the weekend. 

.MARINE...AS OF 9:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Tonight: none. 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE. [WARN]

Public Forecast: Canepa/Larry; Aviation/Marine: CW 

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea 

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Montara CA

10 Feb 11:55pm PST

Overnight Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. NE wind around 7 mph.
Thursday Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 69°. Light and variable wind.
Thursday Night Patchy fog after 10pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph after midnight.
Friday Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 69°. NNW wind 6 to 8 mph.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°. NW wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66°.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51°.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74°.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 53°.
Washington's Birthday Sunny, with a high near 79°.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 75°.
Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°.
Wednesday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 68°.
Overnight
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northeast wind around 7 mph.
Thursday
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Light and variable wind.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after 10pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph after midnight.
Friday
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 69. North northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Northwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Washington's Birthday
Sunny, with a high near 79.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Wednesday
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 68.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: