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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 240131 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 240131
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 5:31pm PST Thu Feb 23 2017 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
531 PM PST THU FEB 23 2017 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Drier and cooler conditions are forecast through Friday with chilly overnight temperatures. Unsettled weather conditions return by the weekend with another storm system approaching the coast. A longer stretch of dry weather returns starting the middle of next week. 

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE COAST. A LONGER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER RETURNS
STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 3:00pm PST Thursday… KMUX [Santa Clara/88D CA] radar still picking up just a few echos over southern portions of our CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] at this hour. Those should diminish especially as the sun sets. Otherwise, just partly to mostly sunny conditions with cool temperatures. Most spots have only gotten into the mower to mid 50s which is 2–5° less than Wednesday. Dew point values are also lower (many spots in the 20s) so cool overnight temperatures are forecast — mostly 30s. There will be a few upper 20s in sheltered locations. Friday will be a near repeat of today with temperatures again forecast to be in the 50s with 30s at night. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...KMUX RADAR STILL
PICKING UP JUST A FEW ECHOS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AT
THIS HOUR. THOSE SHOULD DIMINISH ESPECIALLY AS THE SUN SETS.
OTHERWISE, JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. MOST SPOTS HAVE ONLY GOTTEN INTO THE MOWER TO MID
50S WHICH IS 2 TO 5 DEGREES LESS THAN WEDNESDAY. DEW POINT VALUES
ARE ALSO LOWER (MANY SPOTS IN THE 20S) SO COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST -- MOSTLY 30S. THERE WILL BE A FEW UPPER
20S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S WITH 30S AT
NIGHT. [DISC]

On Saturday a system (currently moving through BC) will move toward our region and bring showers to the North Bay to start and then across the rest of our region later in the day. What remains the main question for the forecast is whether or not the moisture remain fairly limited or if higher IVT [GFS Integrated Water Vapor Transport ]/PW [precipitable water] values will become entrained in the flow and bring more widespread precipitation to our region. Current operational runs of the ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model], NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] and GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] all are toward the drier solutions (less than 1/2" for the entire weekend) while the Canadian has values more than twice as great. Digging further into the data shows that now the high end of the GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] ensembles has cut the potential peak IVT [GFS Integrated Water Vapor Transport ] values in half compared to yesterday while the 18Z [10am PST] NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] is trending a bit dryer by keeping the low more to the west. Therefore, will continue to go with the lower values and discount the GEM [Global Environmental Multiscale model] (Canadian). 

ON SATURDAY A SYSTEM (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH BC) WILL MOVE
TOWARD OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH BAY TO START AND
THEN ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATER IN THE DAY. WHAT REMAINS
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE FORECAST IS WHETHER OR NOT THE MOISTURE
REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED OR IF HIGHER IVT/PW VALUES WILL BECOME
ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
OUR REGION. CURRENT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF, NAM AND GFS ALL
ARE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS (LESS THAN 1/2" FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND) WHILE THE CANADIAN HAS VALUES MORE THAN TWICE AS GREAT.
DIGGING FURTHER INTO THE DATA SHOWS THAT NOW THE HIGH END OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLES HAS CUT THE POTENTIAL PEAK IVT VALUES IN HALF
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHILE THE 18Z NAM IS TRENDING A BIT DRYER BY
KEEPING THE LOW MORE TO THE WEST. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH THE LOWER VALUES AND DISCOUNT THE GEM (CANADIAN). [DISC]

Regardless of the amount, the flow will be coming out of the north with snow levels going to around 3,000 feet (locally 2,500) by the late Saturday into Sunday. Higher elevation spots should pick up 1–2" in many cases with locally higher amounts possible. 

REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNT, THE FLOW WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE NORTH
WITH SNOW LEVELS GOING TO AROUND 3,000 FEET (LOCALLY 2,500) BY THE
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS SHOULD PICK UP
1-2" IN MANY CASES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. [DISC]

Unstable flow will remain in place for the remainder of Sunday and Monday with a few showers likely. Any additional rainfall amounts should be less than 1/4" for either day. 

UNSTABLE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4" FOR EITHER DAY. [DISC]

All signs point to a return to dry weather starting the middle of next week as a ridge of high pressure builds into our state. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through the end of next week. 

ALL SIGNS POINT TO A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER STARTING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 5:20pm PST Thursday… cool northwest flow over the area producing a few cumulus clouds. Clear VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions are expected tonight as the airmass stabilizes in the lower levels. There should be enough wind tonight to prevent low clouds/fog from developing in the valleys. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 PM PST THURSDAY...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA PRODUCING A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS. CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TONIGHT TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS/FOG FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules]

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. West winds gusting to 20 kt [23 mph] decreasing after 03Z [7pm PST]

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT DECREASING
AFTER 03Z. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 02:19pm PST Thursday… building high pressure will result in moderate northerly flow along the Central Coast through tonight. Locally gusty winds will produce hazardous conditions. Winds and seas will become variable over the weekend a storm system moves southward along the coast. 

.MARINE...AS OF 02:19 PM PST THURSDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Tonight: Flood Watch…Salinas Valley near the Salinas River Small Craft Advisory…Monterey Bay until 9pm Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] until 9pm Small Craft AdvisoryPt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] until 9pm Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] until 9pm Small Craft AdvisoryPt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] until 9pm Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] until 9pm Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] until 3am 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...FLOOD WATCH...SALINAS VALLEY NEAR THE SALINAS RIVER
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Bell; Aviation: W PI; Marine: MM 

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: MM [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Montara CA

23 Feb 6:55pm PST

Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 41°. Breezy, with a NW wind 15 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57°. NW wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Friday Night A 10% chance of showers after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 43°. WNW wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Saturday Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56°. SW wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night Showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 43°. South wind 7 to 13 mph becoming ENE in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 58°. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Night A 30% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45°.
Monday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Monday Night A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47°.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 61°.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 41. Breezy, with a northwest wind 15 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Northwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Friday Night
A 10 percent chance of showers after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. West northwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Saturday
Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. Southwest wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
Showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 43. South wind 7 to 13 mph becoming east northeast in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Monday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
Monday Night
A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 61.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: