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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 291805 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 291805
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 11:05am PDT Wed Jul 29 2015 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1105 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 [HEAD]

Very warm to hot inland temperatures expected through Thursday.  

...VERY WARM TO HOT INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY... [DISC]

Synopsis. Hot temperatures are expected to continue across the inland areas through Thursday… with near normal temperatures at the coast as strong high pressure builds over the area. Temperatures will cool slightly late in the week… but increasing monsoon moisture approaching from the south will promote the possibility of showers and isolated thunderstorms by the end of the week. 

.SYNOPSIS...HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
THE COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING
MONSOON MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL PROMOTE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 10:15am PDT Wednesday… a southerly surge pushed up the coast last night and associated low clouds remain present along the immediate coast and the northern Salinas Valley. This marine air and coastal low clouds will result in near normal temperatures for coastal areas today. However… the current visible satellite image is showing mostly clear skies for the remainder of the CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map]. Under these clear skies expect to see hot temperatures as a strong ridge of high pressure reside over the West Coast. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 10:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A SOUTHERLY SURGE
PUSHED UP THE COAST LAST NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
PRESENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.
THIS MARINE AIR AND COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. UNDER THESE CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TO SEE HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE
WEST COAST. [DISC]

The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high pressure along the West Coast with a dome of high pressure centered over roughly Oklahoma and a new low pressure center is developing around 35 north and 140 west. 1200Z [5am PDT] GFS40 [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] and 0000Z [5pm PDT] ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] have initialized well with these synoptic weather features and remain in good agreement through the forecast period. 

THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY OKLAHOMA AND A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
DEVELOPING AROUND 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST. 1200Z GFS40 AND 0000Z
ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES
AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. [DISC]

Both models maintain a 591 dm [decameters] ridge of high pressure over much of the West Coast today and tomorrow… promoting hot temperatures around the forecast area. By Friday the dome of high pressure currently centered over Oklahoma slides west and begins tapping into the monsoon moisture pool. The low pressure center currently positioned at 35 north and 140 west slides closer to the coast by Friday and enhances the monsoon moisture push into our forecast area. The NAM12 [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] and GFS40 [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] both move some vorticity energy through the area Friday… but at different times. This energy will provide lift and along with some instability will provide support for showers and thunderstorms around the forecast area beginning Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. Initially the shower and thunderstorm threat will begin in Monterey and San Benito County but will spread north Friday into Napa and Sonoma Counties. 

BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A 591DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...PROMOTING HOT TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDES WEST AND BEGINS TAPPING
INTO THE MONSOON MOISTURE POOL. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY
POSITIONED AT 35 NORTH AND 140 WEST SLIDES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
FRIDAY AND ENHANCES THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 BOTH MOVE SOME VORTICITY ENERGY THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTY BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH FRIDAY INTO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES. [DISC]

By the weekend the ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] and GFS40 [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] show a low pressure system pushing into British Columbia… merging with the previously mentioned Pacific low. This feature will suppress the Four Corners [intersection of UT, CO, NM & AZ] high and result in southwest flow which will bring an end to the shower and thunderstorm threat over the weekend. 

BY THE WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS40 SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PACIFIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:50am PDT Wednesday… low clouds have mostly retreated to the coast at this hour with VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions at the major terminals. The southerly surge and deepening marine layer will likely maintain cloud cover just offshore through much of the day. Expecting a late afternoon push inland… especially across the Monterey Bay Area that will persist through Thursday morning. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
RETREATED TO THE COAST AT THIS HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJOR TERMINALS. THE SOUTHERLY SURGE AND DEEPENING MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. EXPECTING A LATE AFTERNOON PUSH INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Light winds will strengthen by 21Z [2pm PDT] and persist through the afternoon hours. Confidence decreases this evening into Thursday morning with respect to low clouds returning over the terminal. Thus… will introduce scattered clouds around 12Z [5am PDT] Thursday morning. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY 21Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH RESPECT TO LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING OVER THE TERMINAL. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. [AVI2]

KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay Area terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions through early afternoon likely as low clouds have retreated to the coastline. Onshore winds increase slightly this afternoon and evening with low clouds likely to return late this evening. 

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON LIKELY AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED TO THE COASTLINE.
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS EVENING. [AVI2]

Climate. Here are record highs for Wednesday and Thursday with the last year the record was recorded. 

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE LAST YEAR THE RECORD WAS RECORDED. [AVIA]
SF Bay Area.............7/29............7/30
Kentfield.............105/1954........105/1977
San Rafael............101/1977........102/1977
Napa..................105/1954........103/1977
San Francisco..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
Oakland................98/1977.........95/1977
Oakland Airport........91/1977.........95/1977
Richmond...............82/1967.........80/1993
Livermore.............108/1954........107/1979
Mountain View..........93/1977.........97/1977
San Jose...............95/1977........102/1995
Gilroy................102/1980........106/1977 
SF BAY AREA.............7/29............7/30
KENTFIELD.............105/1954........105/1977
SAN RAFAEL............101/1977........102/1977
NAPA..................105/1954........103/1977
SAN FRANCISCO..........83/1977.........85/1986
SFO....................91/1977.........97/1977
OAKLAND................98/1977.........95/1977
OAKLAND AIRPORT........91/1977.........95/1977
RICHMOND...............82/1967.........80/1993
LIVERMORE.............108/1954........107/1979
MOUNTAIN VIEW..........93/1977.........97/1977
SAN JOSE...............95/1977........102/1995
GILROY................102/1980........106/1977 [POPS]
Monterey Bay Area.......7/29............7/30
Monterey..............86/1977.........91/1977
Santa Cruz............88/1964........102/1977
Salinas...............95/1977.........86/1995
Salinas Airport.......92/1977.........84/1977
King City............105/1977........106/1977 
MONTEREY BAY AREA.......7/29............7/30
MONTEREY..............86/1977.........91/1977
SANTA CRUZ............88/1964........102/1977
SALINAS...............95/1977.........86/1995
SALINAS AIRPORT.......92/1977.........84/1977
KING CITY............105/1977........106/1977 [POPS]

Marine. As of 08:35am PDT Wednesday… generally light to moderate southerly winds will prevail across the coastal waters for the next few days. Locally gusty winds will be possible in the San Francisco Bay during the afternoon and evening hours. A mixed swell will also continue to impact the coastal waters through late week. 

.MARINE...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A MIXED
SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK. [AVIA]

Beaches… as of 06:26am PDT Wednesday… buoys along the Central Coast and locations to the north continue to show a some what energetic southerly swell. There were several reports of rough surf and rip currents yesterday at south facing beaches near Santa Cruz and Stinson Beach. Given similar conditions today decided to issue a beach hazard for rip currents valid through this evening. Large shore break will also be possible. 

.BEACHES...AS OF 06:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...BUOYS ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AND LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME WHAT
ENERGETIC SOUTHERLY SWELL. THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROUGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS YESTERDAY AT SOUTH FACING BEACHES NEAR SANTA
CRUZ AND STINSON BEACH. GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY DECIDED TO
ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD FOR RIP CURRENTS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE SHORE BREAK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. [DISC]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON [WARN]

Public Forecast: Larry; Aviation: Rgass; Marine: MM/Rgass; Climate: Bell/Benjamin 

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RGASS
MARINE: MM/RGASS
CLIMATE: BELL/BENJAMIN [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Montara CA

This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 72°. South wind 8 to 10 mph.
Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 58°. South wind 6 to 8 mph.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 71°. South wind 6 to 8 mph.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 58°. West wind 7 to 10 mph.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 69°. SW wind around 9 mph.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 59°.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69°.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 58°.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 68°.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 58°.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69°.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 57°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 68°.
This Afternoon
Sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 8 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. South wind 6 to 8 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 71. South wind 6 to 8 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. West wind 7 to 10 mph.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Southwest wind around 9 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: