Area Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 230536 AFDMTR ∨
FXUS66 KMTR 230536 AFDMTR [HEAD]
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:36pm PDT Tue Apr 22 2014 ∨
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 1036 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014 [HEAD]
Synopsis. Dry and warmer conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. It will be cooler this weekend with a chance of showers Friday and possibly Sunday. ∨
.SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY. [DISC]
Discussion. As of 8:45pm PDT Tuesday… upper level trough that moved through the district early this morning has now pushed into the Great Basin. Temperatures were cool today with highs 5–10° cooler across the SFO [San Francisco CA] and Monterey Bay Area and 10–20° cooler in southern Monterey and San Benito Counties. Local gusty winds 30–45 mph were reported today mainly in the hills above 1500 feet. ∨
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE DISTRICT EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NOW PUSHED INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WERE COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE SFO AND MRY BAY AREA AND 10-20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. LOCAL GUSTY WINDS 30-45 MPH WERE REPORTED TODAY MAINLY IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500 FEET. [DISC]
Winds will decrease tonight as the trough moves east. A weak upper level ridge will bring warmer temperatures to the area Wednesday and Thursday. Dry northerly flow should keep low clouds to a minimum at night. An upper level trough will approach the West Coast Friday. Latest model runs indicating this system is stronger than the last system and has a better chance for rain. In terms of timing the chance for rain will be on Friday but it could start as early as late Thursday night in the North Bay. Rainfall amounts will not be very impressive with expected amounts 1/4–1/2 inch in the North Bay and 1/4 inch or less elsewhere. The system will quickly exit the area Friday night. Temperatures will continue to be cool through the weekend as another upper trough will move through on Sunday. This system will not be as deep and most of the rain will stay north of the area. ∨
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM AT NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATING THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST SYSTEM AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. IN TERMS OF TIMING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ON FRIDAY BUT IT COULD START AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH BAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH EXPECTED AMOUNTS 1/4-1/2 INCH IN THE NORTH BAY AND 1/4 INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. [DISC]
Dry weather returns next week as a high-amplitude ridge builds over the area. Temperatures will be significantly warmer with warmest areas reaching the low 90s by the middle of next week. ∨
DRY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WITH WARMEST AREAS REACHING THE LOW 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. [DISC]
Aviation. As of 10:36pm PDT Tuesday… scattered high clouds have moved in over the region this evening. Moderate and gusty onshore flow will continue to ease through the night. ∨
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:36 PM PDT TUESDAY...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. MODERATE AND GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THRU THE NIGHT. [AVIA]
Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions expected through the forecast period with mainly high clouds traversing the region. Sustained west winds around 20 kt [23 mph] with gusts to 30 kt [35 mph] expected over KSFO [San Francisco CA] through late tonight. Winds will gradually ease overnight into Wednesday. ∨
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE REGION. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED OVER KSFO THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. [AVI2]
KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]
Monterey Bay Area terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds will continue to ease overnight. ∨
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT. [AVI2]
Marine. As of 10:26pm PDT Tuesday… gusty northwest winds will continue to decrease tonight and Wednesday with the strongest winds remaining south of Point Pinos [Monterey CA]. Northwest to west winds will prevail for much of the upcoming weekend. A long period south swell will impact the region late this week and over the weekend. ∨
.MARINE...AS OF 10:26 PM PDT TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING SOUTH OF POINT PINOS. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. [AVIA]
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...MONTEREY BAY UNTIL 3 AM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM [WARN]
Public Forecast: W PI; Aviation/Marine: CW ∨
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI AVIATION/MARINE: CW [CRED]
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2:47pm PDT Apr 22 2014
Overnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46°. NW wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Wednesday. Partly sunny, with a high near 57°. WNW wind around 11 mph.
Wednesday Night. Cloudy, with a low around 48°. NW wind 8 to 11 mph.
Thursday. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57°. West wind 5 to 7 mph.
Thursday Night. A 20% chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 48°. WSW wind 6 to 10 mph.
Friday. A 40% chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 54°.
Friday Night. A 20% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45°.
Saturday. Partly sunny, with a high near 57°.
Saturday Night. A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Sunday. A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Sunday Night. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Monday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 62°.
Monday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 49°.
Tuesday. Sunny, with a high near 69°.