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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 252021 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 252021
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1:21pm PDT Tue Apr 25 2017 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
121 PM PDT TUE APR 25 2017 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Seasonably cool temperatures will persist into Wednesday as a weak system passes inland to the north. This will result in a slight chance of light precipitation, mainly from the Santa Cruz Mountains northward into Wednesday. A warming and drying trend will then get underway beginning Thursday and likely continuing into the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. Breezy northerly winds are also possible from Thursday into Friday, especially in the hills. 

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES INLAND TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY FROM THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL THEN GET UNDERWAY BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE HILLS. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 01:20pm PDT Tuesday… deep moisture aloft continues to advect inland across the region this afternoon and has resulted in widespread mid/high level cloudiness. All of this is in advance of a weak mid/upper level trough that will push inland into the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Wednesday. This system may bring some very light precipitation to the northern portion of our region, mainly from the Santa Cruz Mountains northward early Wednesday morning. Cannot rule out some lingering showers into the early afternoon from the East Bay hills down into the Santa Lucia Mountains, yet chances for widespread measurable rainfall remain minimal as this system lacks needed mid/upper level support as it pushes inland to our north. With this passing system, temperatures will be seasonably cool and temperatures will range from the lower 06s coast to middle 60s inland through Wednesday. Some of the warmer, interior locations of the Central Coast may warm into the lower 70s. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:20 PM PDT TUESDAY...DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INLAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ALL OF THIS
IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH
INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION, MAINLY FROM THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST BAY HILLS
DOWN INTO THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS, YET CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAIN MINIMAL AS THIS SYSTEM LACKS NEEDED
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT PUSHES INLAND TO OUR NORTH. WITH
THIS PASSING SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 06S COAST TO MIDDLE 60S
INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE WARMER, INTERIOR LOCATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL COAST MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. [DISC]

A warming trend will then get underway by Thursday as dry conditions return along with mostly sunny skies. As a stronger mid/upper level low drops southward out of Canada into the Rockies and high pressure develops offshore late in the week, temperatures will warm into the 70s inland. In addition, breezy to locally gusty winds will develop due to the tightening pressure gradient from Thursday into Friday. Further warming of the air mass aloft will result in lower 80s during the afternoon hours this weekend while onshore winds near the coast keep temperatures in the 60s to 70s. 

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN GET UNDERWAY BY THURSDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
70S INLAND. IN ADDITION, BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LOWER 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEKEND WHILE ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE
COAST KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO 70S. [DISC]

Temperatures moderate slightly by early next week as the mid/upper level ridge weakens as a system pushes inland into the Pacific Northwest. With that said, the main storm track will remain well north of the region and dry weather conditions are likely into the beginning of May. 

TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WITH THAT SAID, THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF MAY. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:19am PDT Tuesday… mid and high level clouds continue to stream in from the north ahead of the next system. Expecting VFR [Visual Flight Rules] today with breezy conditions. Ceilings will gradually lower overnight with light rain possible at KSTS [Santa Rosa CA] early Wednesday, but will only do VCSH [Rain Showers in the Vicinity] for KOAK [Oakland CA] and KSFO [San Francisco CA]

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:19 AM PDT TUESDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
EXPECTING VFR TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH -RA POSS AT KSTS EARLY WED, BUT WILL ONLY DO
VCSH FOR KOAK AND KSFO. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… little change from previous forecast. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through today. MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings develop tonight/early Wednesday. A passing shower possible early Wednesday. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VFR
THROUGH TODAY. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
PASSING SHOWER POSS EARLY WEDNESDAY. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Afternoon sea breeze. Lower ceilings return tonight with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] category. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. LOWER CIGS
RETURN TONIGHT WITH MVFR CATEGORY. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 10:17am PDT Tuesday… moderate to locally strong northerly winds will prevail as high pressure remains anchored off the coast. The strongest winds will likely occur Monterey Bay southward along the immediate coast. Winds and seas will increase over all coastal waters on Wednesday as high pressure strengthens. 

.MARINE...AS OF 10:17 AM PDT TUESDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF
THE COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONTEREY BAY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Rgass; Aviation: MM; Marine: MM 

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM [CRED]
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Point Forecast

Montara CA

25 Apr 2:55pm PDT

Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°. WNW wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Wednesday A 20% chance of showers before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63°. West wind 6 to 8 mph becoming south in the morning.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°. NNW wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62°. NNW wind 16 to 21 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 48°. NW wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 63°.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49°.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 65°.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51°.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 64°.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50°.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 64°.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51°. Breezy.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 65°.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. West northwest wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Wednesday
A 20 percent chance of showers before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. West wind 6 to 8 mph becoming south in the morning.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. North northwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. North northwest wind 16 to 21 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Northwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 63.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 65.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 64.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 64.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Breezy.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 65.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: