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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 280538 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 280538
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:38pm PDT Mon Jun 27 2016 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1038 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2016 [HEAD]

Synopsis. High pressure over the region will result in continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek. Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near seasonal temperatures are likely for the forth of July holiday weekend. 

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED VERY WARM AND DRY INLAND CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SOME COOLING IS ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AND MORE SO INTO THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE FORTH OF JULY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 9:00pm PDT Monday… upper level high is centered over the Utah-Arizona border. This brought very warm and dry conditions over inland areas today with the warmest temperatures in the Monterey and San Benito County interior where highs included 106 at Ft Hunter Liggett… 107 at Arroyo Seco and 113 near Lake San Antonio. Meanwhile, a very shallow marine layer has kept temperatures at the coast near seasonal averages. Strong N-S gradient will keep low clouds and fog confined to the coastal areas overnight. Similar conditions are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s near the coast, upper 70s to lower 80s around the San Francisco Bay and into the 90s for the warmest inland valleys. Far interior portions of the region as well as the hills will likely see values between 95 and 105 during peak heating on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The southern interior could see temperatures near 110. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE UTAH-ARIZONA BORDER. THIS BROUGHT VERY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER INLAND AREAS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY INTERIOR WHERE
HIGHS INCLUDED 106 AT FT HUNTER LIGGETT...107 AT ARROYO SECO AND
113 NEAR LAKE SAN ANTONIO. MEANWHILE, A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. STRONG
N-S GRADIENT WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
AREAS OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AROUND THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND
INTO THE 90S FOR THE WARMEST INLAND VALLEYS. FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION AS WELL AS THE HILLS WILL LIKELY SEE VALUES BETWEEN
95 AND 105 DURING PEAK HEATING ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 110. [DISC]

The ridge is then forecast to weaken late in the week as a weak mid/upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and flattens the high. This will allow temperatures to cool aloft and for the marine influence to spread inland. Thus, surface temperatures will cool slightly on Thursday and more so on Friday when 90° temperatures will be confined to the far interior portions of the region. Also expecting increased coverage of low clouds and patchy fog during the overnight and early morning hours as the marine layer deepens and conditions cool aloft. 

THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
FLATTENS THE HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL ALOFT AND
FOR THE MARINE INFLUENCE TO SPREAD INLAND. THUS, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND MORE SO ON FRIDAY
WHEN 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ALSO EXPECTING INCREASED COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND CONDITIONS COOL ALOFT. [DISC]

By the Fourth of July holiday weekend, the upper high over the southwest will not be as strong so temperatures will generally be near seasonal averages and ongoing dry weather conditions are likely. 

BY THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL NOT BE AS STRONG SO TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND ONGOING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:38pm PDT Monday… mainly clear skies prevail across area terminals this evening with a few patches of stratus developing along the coast and down into the Salinas Valley. Tonight will likely be a repeat of last night with low clouds confined mainly to the coast with ceilings moving in over Monterey Bay Area terminals after 12Z [5am PDT] Tuesday morning and scattering out early. Elsewhere VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions will prevail. Confidence is moderate to high. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:38 PM PDT MONDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH A FEW PATCHES OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND DOWN INTO THE SALINAS
VALLEY. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WITH LOW
CLOUDS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COAST WITH CIGS MOVING IN OVER
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING AND
SCATTERING OUT EARLY. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Moderate west winds to around 20 kt [23 mph] persist this evening over KSFO [San Francisco CA]. Winds will ease overnight. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MODERATE WEST WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT
PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER KSFO. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through late tonight. Low ceilings forecast to return around 10Z [3am PDT] tonight. Light winds. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CIGS
FORECAST TO RETURN AROUND 10Z TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 8:58pm PDT Monday… gusty northwest winds will continue over the waters tonight with a tight surface pressure gradient in place. The gusty northerly winds will produce squared seas while a longer period southerly swell moves through as well. The strong winds are forecast to last at least through the end of the week. 

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PDT MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE SQUARED
SEAS WHILE A LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL MOVES THROUGH AS WELL.
THE STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 2 AM [WARN]

Public Forecast: W PI; Aviation: CW; Marine: Canepa/CW 

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CANEPA/CW [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Montara CA

27 Jun 10:35pm PDT

Tonight Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 52°. NW wind 6 to 8 mph.
Tuesday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 63°. North wind around 8 mph.
Tuesday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°. NW wind 3 to 7 mph.
Wednesday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 63°. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°. West wind 10 to 14 mph.
Thursday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Thursday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Friday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Friday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Saturday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Saturday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Sunday Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°.
Independence Day Partly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 52. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Tuesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. North wind around 8 mph.
Tuesday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph.
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 63. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind 10 to 14 mph.
Thursday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 63.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Friday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Friday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Saturday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Sunday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Independence Day
Partly sunny, with a high near 63.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: