Area Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 181545 AFDMTR ∨
FXUS66 KMTR 181545 AFDMTR [HEAD]
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 8:45am PDT Fri Apr 18 2014 ∨
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 845 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014 [HEAD]
Synopsis. Dry conditions and near seasonal daytime temperatures will persist through the weekend. Overnight and early morning low clouds and patchy fog will also be possible during the next several days. An upper level low pressure system will then approach the region late Monday and Tuesday bringing a chance of showers as well as cooler temperatures through Wednesday. ∨
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. [DISC]
Discussion. As of 8:45am PDT Friday… satellite imagery is showing a lot less cloudiness across the district this morning as compared to 24 hours ago. Currently with a very shallow marine layer… stratus clouds are hugging the coastline and extending only locally inland over the Monterey Bay Area and along the San Mateo coast. Expect a warmer day today across much of the area but especially across the southern third of the district mainly due to the additional sunshine expected today. Highs today should be in the 60s and 70s… but there could be some lower 80s in portions of San Benito County and across the interior sections of southern Monterey County. The weekend is expected to be similar as high pressure builds in over the west. Night and morning coastal stratus can be expected this weekend along with mild temperatures. ∨
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LOT LESS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY WITH A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...STRATUS CLOUDS ARE HUGGING THE COASTLINE AND EXTENDING ONLY LOCALLY INLAND OVER THE MONTEREY BAY AREA AND ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST. EXPECT A WARMER DAY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE DISTRICT MAINLY DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND 70S...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER 80S IN PORTIONS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. [DISC]
Forecast models continue to advertise an upper level trough forecast to approach the West Coast late Monday. This system is is slated to move through the region Monday night through Tuesday evening bringing chances for rain showers across most areas late Monday through Tuesday. The greatest chances for rain will be across the North Bay where the best upper level support and moisture will be… but precipitation could reach as far south as portions of southern Monterey County. ∨
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WILL BE...BUT PRECIPITATION COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY. [DISC]
As this system moves eastward on Wednesday… rain chances will diminish and temperatures warm slightly through the latter part of the work week. The medium range forecast models are hinting at the possibility of a stronger and wetter Pacific storm system impacting the region next weekend. ∨
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. [DISC]
Aviation. As of 4:45am PDT Friday… patchy stratus this morning mostly confined to the immediate coast plus a patch in the East Bay. Marine layer is ill-defined around 1000 ft which should keep coverage limited despite onshore gradient. Ceilings to dissipate by mid morning except at the coast. Moderate onshore winds again today. ∨
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...PATCHY STRATUS THIS MORNING MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST PLUS A PATCH IN THE EAST BAY. MARINE LAYER IS ILL-DEFINED AROUND 1000 FT WHICH SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED DESPITE ONSHORE GRADIENT. CIGS TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING EXCEPT AT THE COAST. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN TODAY. [AVIA]
Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] except possible stratus between 13 and 16Z [6–9am PDT]. West winds all day… increasing to around 20 kt [23 mph] with gusts to 30 kt [35 mph] again today. ∨
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE STRATUS BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z. WEST WINDS ALL DAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AGAIN TODAY. [AVI2]
KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]
Monterey Bay Area terminals… limited clearing at MRY [Monterey CA] as onshore flow maintains stratus. Patchy ceilings at SNS [Salinas CA] to break out mid morning… medium confidence. ∨
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIMITED CLEARING AT MRY AS ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINS STRATUS. PATCHY CIGS AT SNS TO BREAK OUT MID MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. [AVI2]
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM [WARN]
Public Forecast: Sims; Aviation: AC ∨
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS AVIATION: AC [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.sanfranciscobayarea.gov www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]
2:09am PDT Apr 18 2014
Today. Partly sunny, with a high near 58°. WNW wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tonight. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°. West wind 10 to 13 mph.
Saturday. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 60°. WNW wind around 11 mph.
Saturday Night. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 48°. NW wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Sunday. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 63°. WNW wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°.
Monday. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 60°.
Monday Night. A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Tuesday. A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55°.
Tuesday Night. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Wednesday. Partly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Wednesday Night. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°.
Thursday. Partly sunny, with a high near 59°.