Area Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 011145 CCA [corrected meteorological message] AFDMTR ∨
FXUS66 KMTR 011145 CCA AFDMTR [HEAD]
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 444 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014 [HEAD]
Synopsis. The typical summer weather pattern has returned to the district with night and morning coastal low clouds and fog stretching into the valleys and clearing skies in the afternoon hours. Near normal temperatures and dry weather are expected through the forecast period. ∨
.SYNOPSIS...THE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO THE DISTRICT WITH NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STRETCHING INTO THE VALLEYS AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. [DISC]
Discussion. As of 2:56am PDT Friday… there is little change in the marine layer depth as well as the surface gradient values now as compared to yesterday at this time. The Fort Ord profiler [instrument designed to measure horizontal winds directly above its location, and thus measure the vertical wind profile. Profilers operate on the same principles as Doppler radar.] currently shows a marine layer depth of just under 1000 feet and the SFO [San Francisco CA]-SAC [Sacramento CA] gradient sits at 2.7 mb. Temperatures are also running about the same… as are dew points with readings mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s. The current satellite imagery shows high clouds currently moving over the greater San Francisco Bay Area obscuring the lower clouds below… but stratus can be seen spreading well into the Salinas Valley at this time. Temperatures are expected to be similar to or slightly warmer than those on Thursday with coastal areas seeing 60s to lower 70s and inland areas in the 80s and 90s. ∨
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:56 AM PDT FRIDAY...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AS WELL AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT VALUES NOW AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE FORT ORD PROFILER CURRENTLY SHOWS A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF JUST UNDER 1000 FEET...AND THE SFO-SAC GRADIENT SITS AT 2.7 MB. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME...AS ARE DEW POINTS WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA OBSCURING THE LOWER CLOUDS BELOW...BUT STRATUS CAN BE SEEN SPREADING WELL INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS SEEING 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND INLAND AREAS IN THE 80S AND 90S. [DISC]
Forecast models maintain an upper level ridge over the western CONUS [Continental US] through the weekend with a weak upper level trough developing along the coast by the beginning of next week. At the surface a thermal through positioned along the coast will promote warm seasonal temperatures inland and cool temperatures along the coast. A slight cooling trend is indicated beginning Sunday and maintaining into next week… but temperatures will still be around seasonal normals. ∨
FORECAST MODELS MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL THROUGH POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST WILL PROMOTE WARM SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INLAND AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS INDICATED BEGINNING SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. [DISC]
Aviation. As of 4:30am PDT Friday… stratus covers the coastline and has made some inland penetration into the North Bay valleys but has yet to enter SF Bay. Marine layer is shallow as evidenced by the low ceilings at haf and o69. GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] and LAMP [Localized Aviation MOS Program; statistical system which provides forecast guidance for sensible weather elements] guidance have backed off on stratus into SFO [San Francisco CA] while NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] brings stratus into SFO [San Francisco CA] for a couple of hours. Latest forecast has predominant VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with possible brief IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings 13Z [6am PDT]-16Z [9am PDT]. ∨
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...STRATUS COVERS THE COASTLINE AND HAS MADE SOME INLAND PENETRATION INTO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS BUT HAS YET TO ENTER SFO BAY. MARINE LAYER IS SHALLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE LOW CIGS AT HAF AND O69. GFS AND LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRATUS INTO SFO WHILE NAM BRINGS STRATUS INTO SFO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST FORECAST HAS PREDOMINANT VFR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CIGS 13Z-16Z. [AVIA]
Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… possibility of brief IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings 13Z [6am PDT]-16Z [9am PDT]. Otherwise VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. ∨
VICINITY OF KSFO...POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR CIGS 13Z-16Z. OTHERWISE VFR. [AVI2]
KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]
Monterey Bay Area terminals… typical summer stratus has settled into Monterey Bay. LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings through 17Z [10am PDT] at SNS [Salinas CA] and 18Z [11am PDT] at MRY [Monterey CA]. ∨
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...TYPICAL SUMMER STRATUS HAS SETTLED INTO MRY BAY. LIFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z AT SNS AND 18Z AT MRY. [AVI2]
Marine. As of 2:53am PDT Friday… high pressure will build off the Pacific Northwest resulting in increasing winds in the northern outer waters. Light northwest winds will continue over the rest of the northern and central waters. ∨
.MARINE...AS OF 2:53 AM PDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. [AVIA]
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON [WARN]
Public Forecast: Sims; Aviation/Marine: W PI ∨
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS AVIATION/MARINE: W PI [CRED]
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1:37am PDT Aug 1 2014
Today. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy early, then becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 70°. SW wind 5 to 7 mph.
Tonight. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 57°. West wind around 7 mph becoming SSW after midnight.
Saturday. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 68°. South wind 8 to 11 mph.
Saturday Night. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 55°. SW wind around 10 mph.
Sunday. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 65°. WSW wind around 11 mph.
Sunday Night. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55°.
Monday. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 65°.
Monday Night. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 55°.
Tuesday. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 66°.
Tuesday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56°.
Wednesday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67°.
Wednesday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56°.
Thursday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 65°.