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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 300049 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 300049
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 5:49pm PDT Mon Aug 29 2016 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
549 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 [HEAD]

Synopsis. An upper level system and associated cold front will push through the region overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning and result in breezy winds, slightly cooler temperatures and the slight possibility of dry thunderstorms over the North Bay. A broad troughing pattern over the West Coast will result dry weather conditions along with temperatures below seasonal averages through the remainder of the week. 

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY. A BROAD
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 02:18pm PDT Monday… while the marine layer remains between 1500 and 1800 feet in depth this afternoon, low clouds mixed out across the region and gave way to mostly sunny conditions region-wide. However, mid/high level clouds continue to move overhead in advance of an approaching mid/upper level disturbance and associated frontal boundary. This system is forecast to sweep through the region overnight into early Tuesday morning and bring a slight chance of elevated/high based convection over the North Bay. While the threat for dry thunderstorms remains low, cannot rule out the possibility with increased instability and modest mid/upper level moisture advection interacting with the short-wave disturbance forecast to push inland over Northern California. The latest forecast models have trended northward with the greatest threat, but worth keeping in the forecast at this time. In addition, northwest winds will increase ahead of and just behind the frontal passage with wind gusts in the 30–40 mph range along the coastal ranges, especially over the Central Coast from late tonight into Tuesday morning. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:18 PM PDT MONDAY...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 FEET IN DEPTH THIS AFTERNOON, LOW
CLOUDS MIXED OUT ACROSS THE REGION AND GAVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED/HIGH BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH BAY. WHILE THE THREAT FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO
PUSH INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE GREATEST THREAT, BUT WORTH KEEPING
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL COAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. [DISC]

In wake of the frontal passage, the airmass will become more stable by Tuesday afternoon with the threat for convection diminishing and wind speeds relaxing late in the day. Temperatures will generally be a few to several degrees cooler compared this afternoon as well. Do expect some disruptions to the depth of the marine layer, however should see enough boundary layer moisture to allow for low clouds to return to the coast tonight and spread locally inland through Tuesday morning. 

IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE STABLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION DIMINISHING AND
WIND SPEEDS RELAXING LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER COMPARED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. DO
EXPECT SOME DISRUPTIONS TO THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER, HOWEVER
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS TO
RETURN TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND SPREAD LOCALLY INLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. [DISC]

A longwave trough is then forecast to remain stretched along much of the West Coast through late week. This will keep temperatures below seasonal averages, especially inland, with rounds of overnight/morning low clouds that will give way to mostly sunny conditions each afternoon. In addition, should see continued dry weather conditions outside of the potential for coastal drizzle late in the week. 

A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN STRETCHED ALONG MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES, ESPECIALLY INLAND, WITH ROUNDS OF
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, SHOULD SEE CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL DRIZZLE LATE
IN THE WEEK. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 5:49pm PDT Monday… drier air and increasing vertical mixing near the marine inversion rapidly eroded the stratus and fog since late morning, textbook example for our area of a warm-cool seasonal transition taking place in the nearest term. In general, looks like decent chances for VFR [Visual Flight Rules] to hold area-wide this evening as mixing becomes increasingly focused and continues based on recent model output's handling of a deep layered trough and cold air advection pattern banking up against the sub-tropical ridge presently over California. Today's NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] run nearly in-line with present SFO [San Francisco CA]-SMX [Santa Maria CA] 3 mb gradient, which is forecast to hold this strong if not become a little stronger between 4 and 5 mb tonight into Tuesday. Bottom line, areas gusty winds on coast with decent chances VFR [Visual Flight Rules] persisting this evening, then low to very low confidence in stratus and fog redevelopment late tonight and Tuesday morning. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:49 PM PDT MONDAY...DRIER AIR AND INCREASING
VERTICAL MIXING NEAR THE MARINE INVERSION RAPIDLY ERODED THE
STRATUS AND FOG SINCE LATE MORNING, TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE FOR OUR AREA
OF A WARM-COOL SEASONAL TRANSITION TAKING PLACE IN THE NEAREST
TERM. IN GENERAL, LOOKS LIKE DECENT CHANCES FOR VFR TO HOLD AREA-
WIDE THIS EVENING AS MIXING BECOMES INCREASINGLY FOCUSED AND
CONTINUES BASED ON RECENT MODEL OUTPUT`S HANDLING OF A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BANKING UP AGAINST
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE PRESENTLY OVER CA. TODAY`S NAM RUN NEARLY
IN-LINE WITH PRESENT SFO-SMX 3 MB GRADIENT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
HOLD THIS STRONG IF NOT BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER BETWEEN 4 AND 5
MB TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BOTTOM LINE, AREAS GUSTY WINDS ON COAST
WITH DECENT CHANCES VFR PERSISTING THIS EVENING, THEN LOW TO VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… westerly winds with gusts to the 20 knot [23 mph] range this evening, fairly high confidence VFR [Visual Flight Rules] persists this evening. Westerly winds may subside later this evening and overnight, but potential is there for it to be a slow process. As long as mixing prevails and high cloud cover with sub-tropical jet persist, surface winds will probably stay a bit gusty. Low confidence temporary MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceiling 12Z [5am PDT]-16Z [9am PDT] Tuesday. Pretty decent chances VFR [Visual Flight Rules] returns during the day Tuesday. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO THE 20 KNOT RANGE
THIS EVENING, FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR PERSISTS THIS EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR IT TO BE A SLOW PROCESS. AS LONG AS MIXING
PREVAILS AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH SUB-TROPICAL JET PERSIST, SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY A BIT GUSTY. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPO MVFR
CIG 12Z-16Z TUESDAY. PRETTY DECENT CHANCES VFR RETURNS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… similar to the Bay Area, VFR [Visual Flight Rules] stands a pretty good chance of persisting this evening. Low confidence MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings 05Z [10pm PDT]-09Z [2am PDT] followed by MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings into Tuesday morning. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] returning late Tuesday morning, clearing could be quick process and thus possibly earlier than usual. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SIMILAR TO THE BAY AREA, VFR STANDS A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF PERSISTING THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR
CIGS 05Z-09Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR RETURNING
LATE TUESDAY MORNING, CLEARING COULD BE QUICK PROCESS AND THUS POSSIBLY
EARLIER THAN USUAL. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 02:18pm PDT Monday… high pressure off the coast of central California will cause a tightening of the pressure gradient over the coastal waters this afternoon through midweek. As a result, northerly winds and steep short period waves will build on top of a small southerly swell. Expect near gale to gale conditions in the Lee of prominent point such as Point Sur [Big Sur CA]. Conditions are forecast to remain strong into the weekend, though an approaching upper trough may disrupt this pattern. 

.MARINE...AS OF 02:18 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AS A RESULT, NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL
BUILD ON TOP OF A SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELL. EXPECT NEAR GALE TO GALE
CONDITIONS IN THE LEE OF PROMINENT POINT SUCH AS POINT SUR.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY DISRUPT THIS PATTERN. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 9 PM
SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Rgass; Aviation: Canepa; Marine: BFG 

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: BFG [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Montara CA

29 Aug 7:35pm PDT

Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58°. NW wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Tuesday Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 65°. NW wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tuesday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 57°. NW wind around 11 mph.
Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64°. West wind 8 to 13 mph.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°. WNW wind around 13 mph.
Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63°.
Thursday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°.
Friday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 64°.
Friday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°.
Saturday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 64°.
Saturday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°.
Sunday Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 63°.
Sunday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°.
Labor Day Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 65°.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 65. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tuesday Night
Increasing clouds, with a low around 57. Northwest wind around 11 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. West wind 8 to 13 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. West northwest wind around 13 mph.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Friday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Friday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Saturday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Sunday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 63.
Sunday Night
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Labor Day
Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 65.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: