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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 011646 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 011646
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 9:46am PDT Wed Jul 1 2015 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
946 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Hot weather expected once again today… especially across inland portions of the forecast area. Cooler temperatures are anticipated Thursday through Sunday. Upper level moisture will also make its way toward our area today and tomorrow which could lead to a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the mountains. 

.SYNOPSIS...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 09:45am PDT Wednesday… high pressure over the desert southwest states is dominating the regional weather pattern today. Mid to high level moisture and energy rotating around this feature are advecting into central California this morning and will continue to do so through the day. This will lead to increasing cloudiness from south to north through the day and the possibility of some isolated showers and thunderstorms over southern Monterey and San Benito Counties. Forecast models are struggling to pinpoint the exect location of these potential showers and it is possible some may push further northward later this afternoon and into the evening. This afternoon's forecast package will focus on the when and where of potential convection over the next few days. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES IS DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. FORECAST MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE EXECT LOCATION OF THESE POTENTIAL
SHOWERS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME MAY PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE WHEN AND WHERE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. [DISC]

Temperatures today are expected to be similar to yesterday's readings… with some areas a few degrees warmer and other locations marginally cooler. The upper high shifts downstream into the weekend resulting in a gradual cooling trend. The marine layer will begin to push inland Thursday night and gradually deepen into the weekend leading to additional cooling for coastal areas. 

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
READINGS... WITH SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND OTHER LOCATIONS
MARGINALLY COOLER. THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL COOLING FOR COASTAL AREAS. [DISC]

Previous discussion… as of 3:15am PDT Wednesday. Another warm day is forecast across our area as a ridge of high pressure remains in control. 24 hour change shows many locations a few degrees ahead of yesterday along with generally clear skies. Synoptically only minor changes are forecast with a ridge of high pressure (around 595 dm [decameters] at 500 mb) is forecast to remain centered over northern Nevada while 850 mb temps will stay in the 25–26°C range. Temps will likely be similar to values from Tuesday with highs in the 60s and 70s at the coast with many inland spots in the upper 80s to around 100. Far inland locations will see readings back in the 100–108° range. 

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SYNOPTICALLY ONLY
MINOR CHANGES ARE FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND
595 DM AT 500 MB) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 26C RANGE. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO VALUES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MANY INLAND SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 100. FAR INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS BACK IN THE
100 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. [DISC]

The position of the high will allow for moist air and a potential easterly wave to advect in from the south with PW [precipitable water] values of 1–1.2 inches increasing to around 1.3 inches later today and then to over 1.5 inches by Thursday. Similar to last night at this time there remains disagreement with the potential for convection. 0Z [5pm PDT] NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] showed the potential for convection over the southern quarter of the CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] later today while the 06Z [11pm PDT] keeps it to the east of our area. GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] and ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] also keep it to the east. Will keep a mention for showers and thunder going for southern sections to handle model disagreement. 

THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR AND A POTENTIAL
EASTERLY WAVE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH PW VALUES OF 1 TO
1.2 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. 0Z
NAM SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER
OF THE CWA LATER TODAY WHILE THE 06Z KEEPS IT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ALSO KEEP IT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER GOING FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO HANDLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT. [DISC]

Temps will cool on Thursday as clouds increase and 850 mb readings drop 2–3°C. NAM [North American Meso (formerly Eta) model] continues to show instability increasing which when combined with higher PW [precipitable water] values should lead to a better chance for us to see convection especially for higher elevation spots. Best chance remains for southern and eastern sections. Worth noting that similar to today some of the models keep any showers out of our area for Thursday. 

TEMPS WILL COOL ON THURSDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND 850 MB READINGS
DROP 2 TO 3C. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHER PW VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE
FOR US TO SEE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE REMAINS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WORTH
NOTING THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP ANY SHOWERS
OUT OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY. [DISC]

For the remainder of the week temps will cool closer to normal levels as the ridge weakens while the marine layer deepens. In some far inland locations this will lead to temps dropping 20° from values for today. Coastal areas will remain in the 60s and 70s. 

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. IN
SOME FAR INLAND LOCATIONS THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING 20
DEGREES FROM VALUES FOR TODAY. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S. [DISC]

Longer range outlook through next week shows typical dry weather for our entire area. 

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOWS TYPICAL DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 04:30am PDT Wednesday… compressed marine layer and shallow in nature will likely impact coastal terminal and locally inland into KSNS [Salinas CA]. Burn off will be early in the 16–17Z [9–10am PDT] range. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] this afternoon. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY... COMPRESSED MARINE
LAYER AND SHALLOW IN NATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT COASTAL TERMINAL
AND LOCALLY INLAND INTO KSNS. BURN OFF WILL BE EARLY IN THE 16-17Z
RANGE. VFR THIS AFTERNOON. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules] and moderate winds 

VICINITY OF KSFO... VFR AND MODERATE WINDS [AVI2]

KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay Area terminals… LIFR [Low Instrument Flight Rules] conditions impacting KMRY [Monterey CA] and nudging toward KSNS [Salinas CA]. Ceilings/fog through 17Z [10am PDT]. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] this afternoon. 

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING KMRY AND
NUDGING TOWARD KSNS. CIGS/FOG THROUGH 17Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

Climate. Record highs for July 1 for selected locations. 

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 1 FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS. [AVIA]

SF Bay Area… July 1 Kentfield… 103/1996 San Rafael… 99/1991 Napa… 103/1972 San Francisco… 92/1991 SFO [San Francisco CA] Airport… 99/1985 Oakland downtown… 92/1984 Oakland Airport… 90/1985 Richmond… 97/1985 Livermore… 110/1950 Mountain View… 97/1985 San Jose… 102/1985 Gilroy… 108/1972 

.SF BAY AREA................JULY 1
KENTFIELD.................103/1996
SAN RAFAEL.................99/1991
NAPA......................103/1972
SAN FRANCISCO..............92/1991
SFO AIRPORT................99/1985
OAKLAND DOWNTOWN...........92/1984
OAKLAND AIRPORT............90/1985
RICHMOND...................97/1985
LIVERMORE.................110/1950
MOUNTAIN VIEW..............97/1985
SAN JOSE..................102/1985
GILROY....................108/1972 [DISC]
Monterey Bay Area............July 1
Monterey...................96/1985
Santa Cruz.................99/1970
Salinas....................85/1996
Salinas Airport............88/1991
King City.................105/1985 
MONTEREY BAY AREA............JULY 1
MONTEREY...................96/1985
SANTA CRUZ.................99/1970
SALINAS....................85/1996
SALINAS AIRPORT............88/1991
KING CITY.................105/1985 [POPS]

Marine. As of 09:26am PDT Wednesday… light winds and small seas will continue along Central Coast as high pressure remains off the California coast. A weak disturbance will pass by on Thursday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region. 

.MARINE...AS OF 09:26 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...HEAT ADVISORY...NORTH BAY AREA...EAST BAY AREA... AND
THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY.
SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON [WARN]

Public Forecast: DRP; Aviation: MM; Marine: MM; Climate: Bell 

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: BELL [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Montara CA

Today Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 65°. SSW wind 5 to 9 mph.
Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55°. South wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light.
Thursday A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65°. South wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light WSW in the afternoon.
Thursday Night A 20% chance of showers after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°. SW wind 6 to 8 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 65°. SW wind around 8 mph.
Friday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°.
Independence Day Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 65°.
Saturday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55°.
Sunday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 64°.
Sunday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55°.
Monday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 64°.
Monday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 54°.
Tuesday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 64°.
Today
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 65. South southwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. South wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light.
Thursday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. South wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light west southwest in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Southwest wind around 8 mph.
Friday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Independence Day
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 65.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Sunday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 64.
Sunday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Monday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 64.
Monday Night
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Tuesday
Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: