Area Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 030720 AFDMTR ∨
FXUS66 KMTR 030720 AFDMTR [HEAD]
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 11:20pm PST Fri Dec 2 2016 ∨
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 1120 PM PST FRI DEC 2 2016 [HEAD]
Synopsis. Dry weather conditions will persist through the weekend along with a slight warming trend in daytime temperatures. Meanwhile, overnight conditions will remain chilly under mostly clear skies. A region-wide cool down is forecast for the first part of next week as a dry cold front pushes through the region. Rain chances develop later next week. ∨
.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHILLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A REGION-WIDE COOL DOWN IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP LATER NEXT WEEK. [DISC]
Discussion. As of 9:05pm PST Friday… gusty northerly winds in the hills have decreased since earlier today, but blustery conditions are expected to continue locally in the hills through Saturday morning. These northerly winds are ushering a dry airmass into our region and evening dewpoints are as low as the mid 20s. This dry air will allow for efficient radiational cooling overnight and therefore chilly temps, especially in wind sheltered valleys where overnight lows will be in the 30s. ∨
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PST FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE HILLS HAVE DECREASED SINCE EARLIER TODAY, BUT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOCALLY IN THE HILLS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE USHERING A DRY AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION AND EVENING DEWPOINTS ARE AS LOW AS THE MID 20S. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE CHILLY TEMPS, ESPECIALLY IN WIND SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. [DISC]
An upper ridge centered offshore along 130°W [410 mi west of Montara] will maintain dry and mild daytime temperatures through the weekend, with mostly clear skies and highs mainly in the 60s. Nights will continue to be cool, although slight moderation in overnight lows is anticipated. ∨
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL, ALTHOUGH SLIGHT MODERATION IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS ANTICIPATED. [DISC]
A dry cold front is forecast to sweep from north to south through our area on Sunday night. There will not be sufficient moisture available with this front to produce precipitation and so its primary impact will be cooler weather starting Monday. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the lower 30s in the cooler valleys by Monday night and perhaps as low as the upper 20s by Tuesday night. ∨
A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS FRONT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AND SO ITS PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE COOLER WEATHER STARTING MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S BY TUESDAY NIGHT. [DISC]
The next chance of precipitation in our area will be during the second half of next week. The models agree that a relatively moist airmass with precipitable water values as high as 1.25 inches will accompany this system. Widespread soaking rains are possible across Northern California beginning as early as Thursday. Indications are that the bulk of the moisture later next week will be confined to Northern California, with central California likely too see much less. ∨
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.25 INCHES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LATER NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LIKELY TOO SEE MUCH LESS. [DISC]
Aviation. As of 11:19pm PST Friday… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the period. A weak and dry cold front located off Oregon will reach the Bay Area Saturday then slow in forward speed later Saturday and stall early Sunday over the north Central Coast. This front precedes the next cold front upstream over the Pacific expected to arrive Sunday night and Monday. The WRF [Weather Research and Forecasting model] model output indicates boundary layer humidity remains dry supporting VFR [Visual Flight Rules] into Saturday, but N-NE winds from the South Bay Hills/mountains to the Santa Lucia Mountains may pick up to 15–20 knots [17–23 mph] Saturday. ∨
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:19 PM PST FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT LOCATED OFF OREGON WILL REACH THE BAY AREA SATURDAY THEN SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED LATER SATURDAY AND STALL EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST. THIS FRONT PRECEDES THE NEXT COLD FRONT UPSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE WRF MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY REMAINS DRY SUPPORTING VFR INTO SATURDAY, BUT N-NE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH BAY HILLS/MTNS TO THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS MAY PICK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY. [AVIA]
Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Mainly light winds tonight and Saturday. ∨
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. [AVI2]
SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. ∨
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR. [AVI2]
Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with light offshore winds tonight and Saturday morning. Winds temporarily light onshore Saturday afternoon prior to becoming light offshore Saturday evening. ∨
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS TEMPORARILY LIGHT ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE SATURDAY EVENING. [AVI2]
Marine. As of 9:43pm PST Friday… building high pressure over the northeastern Pacific will lead to gusty northerly winds along the Central Coast into the weekend. The strongest winds will be mainly over the outer waters producing hazardous conditions. A dry cold front will slide south across the area Saturday gradually stalling over the Central Coast by early Sunday morning. Another cold front will move southeastward across the area Sunday night into Monday morning however it too will be mostly dry or dry. Additionally, a long period swell train will arrive in the coastal waters on Saturday. ∨
.MARINE...AS OF 9:43 PM PST FRIDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY GRADUALLY STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING HOWEVER IT TOO WILL BE MOSTLY DRY OR DRY. ADDITIONALLY, A LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. [AVIA]
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM [WARN]
Public Forecast: Dykema; Aviation/Marine: Canepa ∨
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA [CRED]
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03 Dec 12:55am PST
Overnight Clear, with a low around 45°. NNE wind around 9 mph.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 60°. NE wind 6 to 8 mph becoming NNW in the afternoon.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45°. NNW wind around 9 mph.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°. NNW wind around 9 mph.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47°. NNW wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 55°.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 56°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 40°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57°.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42°.
Thursday A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57°.
Thursday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46°.
Friday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60°.
Clear, with a low around 45. North northeast wind around 9 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 60. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon.
Mostly clear, with a low around 45. North northwest wind around 9 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. North northwest wind around 9 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. North northwest wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.
A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.