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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 300601 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 300601
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:01pm PST Thu Jan 29 2015 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1001 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015 [HEAD]

Synopsis. Dry conditions are expected to continue through next week with chances of rain only over far Northern California. Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal for the next seven days. 

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN ONLY OVER FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 9:00pm PST Thursday… stagnant pattern continues over the area with ridging to the north and an upper level trough to the south. Light winds aloft will allow a shallow inversion layer to form near the surface overnight. As a result areas of low clouds and fog may form again. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST THURSDAY...STAGNANT PATTERN
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW
INVERSION LAYER TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM AGAIN. [DISC]

The upper level trough will develop into a closed low over Southern California on Friday. Moisture drawn up from this system will spread into the southwestern US the low will be too far south and east of the district to produce any wraparound showers into our CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map]. Instead an upper level ridge will build off the California coast behind the low. Northerly winds will increase aloft which will bring wind gusts up to 25–30 mph in the North and East Bay hills Friday night through Saturday night. These winds should be enough to mix out the fog and haze for this weekend leaving clear skies. 

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE DRAWN UP FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISTRICT TO PRODUCE ANY WRAPAROUND SHOWERS
INTO OUR CWA. INSTEAD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND THE LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALOFT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH IN THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE
WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE FOG AND HAZE FOR THIS
WEEKEND LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. [DISC]

The upper ridge will move over the area Saturday and Sunday then flatten out on Monday as a weak storm moves into the Pacific Northwest. Latest ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] and GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] keep all rain north of the CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] so all chances of rain have been removed from the forecast. Another ridge builds off the coast Tuesday through Thursday for continued dry weather. There is no clear indication on when the next rain will come. 

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN
FLATTEN OUT ON MONDAY AS A WEAK STORM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS KEEP ALL RAIN NORTH OF THE CWA SO
ALL CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER. THERE IS NO CLEAR INDICATION ON WHEN THE NEXT RAIN
WILL COME. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:01pm PST Thursday… for 06Z [10pm PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Skies remain clear over the terminals for now but some stratus is developing along the coast near Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] and along the San Mateo coast. TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts] will show some possible low ceilings towards sunrise but expect any low clouds and fog that do develop to mix out by 18Z [10am PST] and be patchy in nature. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:01 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE TERMINALS FOR NOW BUT SOME STRATUS IS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR PT REYES AND ALONG THE SAN MATEO
COAST. TAFS WILL SHOW SOME POSSIBLE LOW CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT
EXPECT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DO DEVELOP TO MIX OUT BY 18Z
AND BE PATCHY IN NATURE. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through midnight… some concern for another round of low ceilings to develop by sunrise. Low confidence. If ceilings do form expect them to mix out by 18Z [10am PST] and be patchy in coverage. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SOME CONCERN FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE. LOW CONFIDENCE. IF CIGS
DO FORM EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY 18Z AND BE PATCHY IN COVERAGE. [AVI2]

KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] overnight with possible ceilings impacting approach between 14–17Z [6–9am PST] Friday. 

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE CIGS IMPACTING
APPROACH BETWEEN 14-17Z FRIDAY. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay Area terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] this evening with possible low ceilings around sunrise Friday… but mixing out quickly by 17Z [9am PST]

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE LOW
CIGS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...BUT MIXING OUT QUICKLY BY 17Z. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 10:01pm PST Thursday… northerly winds will increase overnight through Friday before gradually easing by Saturday afternoon. The increasing NW winds will produce choppy seas with a fresh well Friday into Saturday morning. Building high pressure the second half of the weekend into early next week will bring lighter wind and seas to the waters. 

.MARINE...AS OF 10:01 PM PST THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
SEAS WITH A FRESH WELL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING LIGHTER WIND AND SEAS TO THE WATERS. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Tonight: Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM [WARN]

Public Forecast: W PI; Aviation/Marine: RWW 

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW [CRED]
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Point Forecast

Montara CA

2:29am PST Jan 30 2015

Overnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°. NW wind around 9 mph.


Friday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°. NW wind 7 to 9 mph.

Friday Night. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 50°. NNE wind 9 to 14 mph.


Saturday. Sunny, with a high near 63°. North wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Saturday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 49°. NW wind 5 to 7 mph.


Sunday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°.

Sunday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°.


Monday. Partly sunny, with a high near 62°.

Monday Night. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°.


Tuesday. Partly sunny, with a high near 62°.

Tuesday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51°.


Wednesday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63°.

Wednesday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52°.


Thursday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63°.

  • Overnight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Northwest wind around 9 mph.
  • Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
  • Friday Night Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 50. North northeast wind 9 to 14 mph.
  • Saturday Sunny, with a high near 63. North wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
  • Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph.
  • Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.
  • Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
  • Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 62.
  • Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.
  • Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 62.
  • Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.
  • Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.
  • Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
  • Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

  • This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: