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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 260522 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 260522
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 10:22pm PDT Thu Apr 25 2024 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1022 PM PDT THU APR 25 2024 [HEAD]

New aviation, marine.  

...NEW AVIATION, MARINE... [DISC]

Synopsis. Issued at 2:00pm PDT Thursday April 25 2024 

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 PM PDT THU APR 25 2024 [DISC]

Cool temperatures will continue today. A cold front will bring a chance for light rain beginning tonight, with strong winds Friday night. Increasing sunshine will kick off a warming trend Sat–Tuesday. 

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TONIGHT, WITH STRONG WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND
SAT-TUE. [DISC]

Update. Issued at 8:08pm PDT Thursday April 25 2024 

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM PDT THU APR 25 2024 [DISC]

Radar depicting a few scattered showers moving through the Bay Area and Central Coast this evening. Mostly very light and short-lived as seen thus far. Beyond the current precipitation moving through, really don't expect too much in the way of additional rainfall overnight outside of a stray light shower or two, in additional to areas of coastal and mountain drizzle as we head into Friday morning. Overall amounts this evening will be just a smattering of one to a few hundredths here and there. 

RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE BAY
AREA AND CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. MOSTLY VERY LIGHT AND SHORT-
LIVED AS SEEN THUS FAR. BEYOND THE CURRENT PRECIP MOVING THROUGH,
REALLY DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO, IN ADDITIONAL TO
AREAS OF COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN DRIZZLE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING WILL BE JUST A SMATTERING OF
ONE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE. [DISC]

Short term. (this evening through Friday) issued at 1:56pm PDT Thursday April 25 2024 

.SHORT TERM...
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM PDT THU APR 25 2024 [DISC]

Cloudy conditions continue, with breezy to gusty northwest wind this afternoon and evening as the upper level pattern continues to shift behind the low pressure center's passage. An additional trough passes through the area overnight, bringing widespread drizzle chances with light rain possible on higher elevations and along the coast. 

CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER`S PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE CHANCES WITH
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE COAST. [DISC]

Precipitation chances pause Friday afternoon, but cloud cover will still be persistent. Friday's pressure gradient change will make for even breezier conditions that afternoon specifically for higher peaks and along the Big Sur coast. The trough looks to be slow to exit Saturday morning with additional drizzle chances expected along with another round of light rain chances on higher elevations and along the coast. 

PRECIP CHANCES PAUSE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE
PERSISTENT. FRIDAY`S PRESSURE GRADIENT CHANGE WILL MAKE FOR EVEN
BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAT AFTERNOON SPECIFICALLY FOR HIGHER PEAKS AND
ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO EXIT
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE CHANCES EXPECTED ALONG WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG
THE COAST. [DISC]

Long term. (Friday night through next Wednesday) issued at 1:56pm PDT Thursday April 25 2024 

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM PDT THU APR 25 2024 [DISC]

The new upper level pattern keeps mostly northwest onshore flow into the weekend. While the immediate coast will continue to struggle with cloud cover, most areas slightly more inland and well into the interior will see quicker clearing times. This will place most areas back into the 60s and 70s into the next work week, while the coast will stick to around 60° highs. By the late week, some of those more interior locations look to break into the low 80s. 

THE NEW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN  KEEPS MOSTLY NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW INTO
THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH CLOUD COVER, MOST AREAS SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND AND WELL INTO THE
INTERIOR WILL SEE QUICKER CLEARING TIMES. THIS WILL PLACE MOST AREAS
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WHILE THE COAST
WILL STICK TO AROUND 60 DEGREE HIGHS. BY THE LATE WEEK, SOME OF
THOSE MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS LOOK TO BREAK INTO THE LOW 80S. [DISC]

Longer term models are in better agreement that the next rain maker may just stay well to the north of the Bay Area and Central Coast as the ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] model families have adjusted the next trough to arrive over Seattle rather than the Bay Area. 

LONGER TERM MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT RAIN MAKER
MAY JUST STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST AS
THE ECMWF MODEL FAMILIES HAVE ADJUSTED THE NEXT TROUGH TO ARRIVE
OVER SEATTLE RATHER THAN THE BAY AREA. [DISC]

Aviation. (06Z [11pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 10:22pm PDT Thursday April 25 2024 

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM PDT THU APR 25 2024 [AVIA]

Generally MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] to mid-level ceilings as a front passes through the region. STS [Santa Rosa CA] has cleared out behind the cloud shield, but satellite imagery is showing expanding stratus to the north, resulting in low confidence for clear skies through the night. Mid-level to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings and scattered light drizzle expected to continue through at least the next few hours. Updated model output showing earlier clearing times Friday morning, but confidence in clearing time remains low. Breezy westerly winds continue overnight with strong gusts building through Friday in the post-frontal environment. 

GENERALLY MVFR TO MID-LEVEL CEILINGS AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. STS HAS CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE CLOUD SHIELD, BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING EXPANDING STRATUS TO THE NORTH,
RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MID-LEVEL TO MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED -DZ EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING
EARLIER CLEARING TIMES FRIDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING
TIME REMAINS LOW. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
STRONG GUSTS BUILDING THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings continue through at least 12Z [5am PDT] with breezy west winds. Low confidence in clearing time Friday morning, but VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions expected by the afternoon. Breezy west-northwest winds continue overnight and build through Friday. Gusts up to 30–35 knots [35–40 mph] on Friday afternoon, monitoring possible gusts above 35 knots [40 mph] but at this time, probabilities are low (10–20%). 

VICINITY OF SFO... MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WITH
BREEZY WEST WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING TIME FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30-35
KNOTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MONITORING POSSIBLE GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS
BUT AT THIS TIME, PROBABILITIES ARE LOW (10-20%). [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… generally MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] conditions with light drizzle possible overnight, clearing late Friday morning. Breezy west winds building through Friday, gusting up to 20–25 knots [23–29 mph] in the afternoon. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -DZ
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, CLEARING LATE FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY WEST WINDS
BUILDING THROUGH FRIDAY, GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

Marine. (tonight through next Wednesday) issued at 10:22pm PDT Thursday April 25 2024 

.MARINE...
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM PDT THU APR 25 2024 [AVIA]

Breezy northwest winds through Friday morning, most notably south of Point Sur [Big Sur CA]. Winds strengthen to become strong and gusty into Friday afternoon with gale-force gusts likely near the Big Sur coast. These strong and gusty northwesterly winds last through the weekend and into at least the early portion of next week, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft vessels. Moderate period northwest swell will continue to move through the waters this weekend, with a new longer period northwest swell train entering the waters Sunday. Light, long period southerly swell continues through end of forecast period. 

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, MOST NOTABLY SOUTH
OF POINT SUR. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GALE-FORCE GUSTS LIKELY NEAR THE BIG SUR
COAST. THESE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT VESSELS. MODERATE
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
THIS WEEKEND, WITH A NEW LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL TRAIN
ENTERING THE WATERS SUNDAY. LIGHT, LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
CONTINUES THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD. [AVI2]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • California: none.
  • Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory from 9am Friday to 3am PDT Saturday for Monterey Bay-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES
0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM. [WARN]
  • Small Craft Advisory until 3am PDT Friday for Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]
  • Small Craft Advisory from 3pm Friday to 3am PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60
NM. [WRN2]
  • Update: behringer short term…murdock long term…murdock aviation…dialh marine…behringer 
UPDATE...BEHRINGER
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...BEHRINGER [WRN2]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Montara CA

25 Apr 11:35pm PDT

Overnight A 20% chance of rain. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 55°. NW wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 58°. Breezy, with a WNW wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°. Breezy, with a NW wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 58°. NW wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52°. NW wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50°. Breezy.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 59°. Breezy.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50°. Breezy.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 61°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51°.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°.
Overnight
A 20 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 55. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday
Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 58. Northwest wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northwest wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Breezy.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 59. Breezy.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Breezy.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 61.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: