Area Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 300601 AFDMTR ∨
FXUS66 KMTR 300601 AFDMTR [HEAD]
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 10:01pm PST Thu Jan 29 2015 ∨
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 1001 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015 [HEAD]
Synopsis. Dry conditions are expected to continue through next week with chances of rain only over far Northern California. Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal for the next seven days. ∨
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN ONLY OVER FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. [DISC]
Discussion. As of 9:00pm PST Thursday… stagnant pattern continues over the area with ridging to the north and an upper level trough to the south. Light winds aloft will allow a shallow inversion layer to form near the surface overnight. As a result areas of low clouds and fog may form again. ∨
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 PM PST THURSDAY...STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW A SHALLOW INVERSION LAYER TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM AGAIN. [DISC]
The upper level trough will develop into a closed low over Southern California on Friday. Moisture drawn up from this system will spread into the southwestern US the low will be too far south and east of the district to produce any wraparound showers into our CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map]. Instead an upper level ridge will build off the California coast behind the low. Northerly winds will increase aloft which will bring wind gusts up to 25–30 mph in the North and East Bay hills Friday night through Saturday night. These winds should be enough to mix out the fog and haze for this weekend leaving clear skies. ∨
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE DRAWN UP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE LOW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISTRICT TO PRODUCE ANY WRAPAROUND SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA. INSTEAD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND THE LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ALOFT WHICH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE FOG AND HAZE FOR THIS WEEKEND LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. [DISC]
The upper ridge will move over the area Saturday and Sunday then flatten out on Monday as a weak storm moves into the Pacific Northwest. Latest ECMWF [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model] and GFS [Global Forecast System: global spectral model used primarily for aviation weather forecasts; provides guidance out to 384 hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC.] keep all rain north of the CWA [County Warning Area; see the LWP home page (link at bottom of page) for a CWA map] so all chances of rain have been removed from the forecast. Another ridge builds off the coast Tuesday through Thursday for continued dry weather. There is no clear indication on when the next rain will come. ∨
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN FLATTEN OUT ON MONDAY AS A WEAK STORM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS KEEP ALL RAIN NORTH OF THE CWA SO ALL CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THERE IS NO CLEAR INDICATION ON WHEN THE NEXT RAIN WILL COME. [DISC]
Aviation. As of 10:01pm PST Thursday… for 06Z [10pm PST] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Skies remain clear over the terminals for now but some stratus is developing along the coast near Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] and along the San Mateo coast. TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts] will show some possible low ceilings towards sunrise but expect any low clouds and fog that do develop to mix out by 18Z [10am PST] and be patchy in nature. ∨
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:01 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE TERMINALS FOR NOW BUT SOME STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR PT REYES AND ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST. TAFS WILL SHOW SOME POSSIBLE LOW CIGS TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT EXPECT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DO DEVELOP TO MIX OUT BY 18Z AND BE PATCHY IN NATURE. [AVIA]
Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through midnight… some concern for another round of low ceilings to develop by sunrise. Low confidence. If ceilings do form expect them to mix out by 18Z [10am PST] and be patchy in coverage. ∨
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SOME CONCERN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE. LOW CONFIDENCE. IF CIGS DO FORM EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY 18Z AND BE PATCHY IN COVERAGE. [AVI2]
KSFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] overnight with possible ceilings impacting approach between 14–17Z [6–9am PST] Friday. ∨
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE CIGS IMPACTING APPROACH BETWEEN 14-17Z FRIDAY. [AVI2]
Monterey Bay Area terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] this evening with possible low ceilings around sunrise Friday… but mixing out quickly by 17Z [9am PST]. ∨
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...BUT MIXING OUT QUICKLY BY 17Z. [AVI2]
Marine. As of 10:01pm PST Thursday… northerly winds will increase overnight through Friday before gradually easing by Saturday afternoon. The increasing NW winds will produce choppy seas with a fresh well Friday into Saturday morning. Building high pressure the second half of the weekend into early next week will bring lighter wind and seas to the waters. ∨
.MARINE...AS OF 10:01 PM PST THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS WITH A FRESH WELL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING LIGHTER WIND AND SEAS TO THE WATERS. [AVIA]
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM [WARN]
Public Forecast: W PI; Aviation/Marine: RWW ∨
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI AVIATION/MARINE: RWW [CRED]
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2:29am PST Jan 30 2015
Overnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49°. NW wind around 9 mph.
Friday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°. NW wind 7 to 9 mph.
Friday Night. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 50°. NNE wind 9 to 14 mph.
Saturday. Sunny, with a high near 63°. North wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Saturday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 49°. NW wind 5 to 7 mph.
Sunday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°.
Sunday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°.
Monday. Partly sunny, with a high near 62°.
Monday Night. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°.
Tuesday. Partly sunny, with a high near 62°.
Tuesday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51°.
Wednesday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Wednesday Night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52°.
Thursday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63°.