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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 240951 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 240951
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 2:51am PDT Fri Mar 24 2017 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
251 AM PDT FRI MAR 24 2017 [HEAD]

Rain and gusty southerly winds return today.  

...RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TODAY... [DISC]

Synopsis. Rain and wind will spread southward today across the forecast area as a cold front moves across the region. A break in the rain is expected Saturday with showers anticipated to return Sunday afternoon and night as a low pressure system moves through. 

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND WIND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A BREAK IN
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 2:51am PDT Friday… the approaching system is taking its time reaching us, but KMUX [Santa Clara/88D CA] radar is starting to fill in with stronger reflectivities off the coast. So far, only a couple hundredths of an inch have been picked up by rain gauges in the North Bay. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:51 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE APPROACHING SYSTEM IS
TAKING ITS TIME REACHING US, BUT KMUX RADAR IS STARTING TO FILL IN
WITH STRONGER REFLECTIVITIES OFF THE COAST. SO FAR, ONLY A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN PICKED UP BY RAIN GAUGES IN THE
NORTH BAY. [DISC]

Latest model runs indicate a slightly slower solution with the main rain band intensifying over the North Bay after sunrise, then spreading south through the remainder of the Bay Area during the morning. The HRRR keeps the Monterey Peninsula rain-free until early afternoon. Satellite-estimated precipitable water values still exceed 180–200% of normal offshore, with over 1.5" of PW [precipitable water] in the moisture plume aimed currently aimed at the Northern California coast. Thus, once this system moves through, episodes of locally heavy rain are possible, especially over coastal hills. Rainfall totals through Saturday morning are forecast to range from 1–3" in the North Bay and coastal hills and from 0.25–0.75" in the lower elevations. Rain to turn to showers this afternoon and end overnight. 

LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
MAIN RAIN BAND INTENSIFYING OVER THE NORTH BAY AFTER SUNRISE, THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THE HRRR KEEPS THE MONTEREY PENINSULA RAIN-FREE UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE-ESTIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL EXCEED 180-200% OF NORMAL OFFSHORE, WITH OVER 1.5" OF PW IN
THE MOISTURE PLUME AIMED CURRENTLY AIMED AT THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THUS, ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, EPISODES
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL HILLS.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 1-3" IN THE NORTH BAY AND COASTAL HILLS AND FROM 0.25-0.75"
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RAIN TO TURN TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND END OVERNIGHT. [DISC]

In addition to rain, southerly winds are expected to ramp up in advance of and with the front. Winds will be strongest over the higher terrain from Santa Cruz County northward, as well as some coastal areas. A Wind Advisory will be issued for these areas for much of today. Downed limbs, trees and power lines seem likely. 

IN ADDITION TO RAIN, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP IN
ADVANCE OF AND WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY NORTHWARD, AS WELL AS SOME
COASTAL AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR
MUCH OF TODAY. DOWNED LIMBS, TREES AND POWER LINES SEEM LIKELY. [DISC]

Precipitation will turn showery by Friday night and end in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. Saturday looks dry but seasonably cool. 

PRECIP WILL TURN SHOWERY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND END IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF SATURDAY.  SATURDAY LOOKS DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL. [DISC]

Another system will bring rain chances back to the area late Sunday. This system does not look to be as wet, but an additional 0.25–0.50" with local amounts 0.75 inches possible. This rain is expected to be east of the area by midday Monday. Beyond that the remainder of next week now looks dry. 

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS WET, BUT AN ADDITIONAL
0.25-0.50" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS 0.75 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
BEYOND THAT THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK NOW LOOKS DRY. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 10:40pm PDT Thursday… for 06Z [11pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions are expected to persist the next several hours across the Bay Area through about 10 to 14Z [7am PDT] before showers associated with an approaching front push onshore. Rain is expected to reach the San Francisco Bay Area terminals by Thursday morning with a steady rain mid/late morning that will continue into the afternoon and evening hours. Expect ceilings to become MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] as the rain reaches the terminals. Medium confidence on timing of the rain. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE BAY AREA THROUGH ABOUT 10 TO 14Z BEFORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT PUSH ONSHORE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA TERMINALS BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
STEADY RAIN MID/LATE MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BECOME MVFR AS THE RAIN
REACHES THE TERMINALS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE RAIN. [AVIA]

Winds are becoming southerly tonight and can expect breezy conditions by mid morning at many locations. Gusts are likely to exceed 20–25 kt [23–29 mph] by 18Z [11am PDT]. High confidence on wind direction, medium confidence on the timing and gust magnitude. 

WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND CAN EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
BY MID MORNING AT MANY LOCATIONS. GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20
TO 25 KT BY 18Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION, MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND GUST MAGNITUDE. [AVI2]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through about 9 to 10Z [3am PDT], and then transitioning to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings and with rain by Friday morning. Southerly winds will increase by morning with gusts exceeding 20 kt [23 mph] by 18Z [11am PDT] and continuing into the afternoon and evening. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 9 TO 10Z, AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO MVFR CEILINGS AND WITH RAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
KT BY 18Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… same as KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… VFR [Visual Flight Rules] overnight with generally light winds. Rain showers are expected to begin impacting after 18Z [11am PDT] with MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings and increasing southerly winds. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING AFTER 18Z WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 2:21am PDT Friday… occasional gale force gusts are possible through the day as a storm system impacts the region with strong southerly winds and rain. Seas will be rough with the frontal passage, but should begin to decrease by this evening. Expect northwest winds to return by Saturday morning before briefly becoming southerly on Sunday as another weak system moves over the waters. 

.MARINE...AS OF 2:21 AM PDT FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN. SEAS WILL BE ROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
BRIEFLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Today: Wind Advisory…North Bay mountains from 6am this morning to 3pm PDT this afternoon Wind Advisory…San Francisco Peninsula coast-East Bay hills and the Diablo Range-Santa Cruz Mountains from 10am this morning to 7pm PDT this evening Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] until 9am Small Craft AdvisoryPt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] until 3pm Small Craft Advisory…Monterey Bay from 9am Small Craft Advisory…SF Bay 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS FROM 6 AM THIS
MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
WIND ADVISORY...SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-EAST BAY
HILLS AND THE DIABLO RANGE-SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FROM
10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM
SCA...MRY BAY FROM 9 AM
SCA...SF BAY [WARN]

Public Forecast: Sims; Aviation: Rowe; Marine: BAM 

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: ROWE
MARINE: BAM [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay CA

24 Mar 2:55am PDT

Overnight A 50% chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 49°. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Rain. High near 61°. Breezy, with a south wind 20 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Friday Night Rain before midnight, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Low around 48°. WSW wind 5 to 9 mph becoming NW in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°. WNW wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47°. WNW wind 6 to 13 mph.
Sunday A 50% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59°. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Sunday Night Showers. Low around 48°. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 61°. Breezy.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 46°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49°.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 65°.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 48°. Breezy.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 62°.
Overnight
A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 49. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday
Rain. High near 61. Breezy, with a south wind 20 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Friday Night
Rain before midnight, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Low around 48. West southwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming northwest in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. West northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. West northwest wind 6 to 13 mph.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Showers. Low around 48. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 61. Breezy.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 65.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Breezy.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 62.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: