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FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 030534 AFDILM ∨

FXUS62 KILM 030534
AFDILM [HEAD]

National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 1:32am EDT Wed Apr 3 2025 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
132 AM EDT WED APR 3 2025 [HEAD]

Synopsis. A warm front will lift north tonight with unseasonable warmth arriving Thursday through Sunday. The next meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday accompanying a cold front. Much cooler and drier air will follow on Tuesday into midweek. ∨

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH
ARRIVING THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK. [DISC]

Update. Exceptionally high dewpoints for early April are streaming onshore across the eastern Carolinas. The SPC [Storm Prediction Center] sounding climatology webpage shows upper 60s dewpoints are among the highest values on record for this time of year in Charleston and mid 60s are only a degree or two below daily maxes at Morehead City. Isolated convective showers across eastern South Carolina developing from surface-based instability should fade over over the next couple of hours, however extensive low level moisture should keep plenty of low clouds around through the night, especially inland. ∨

.UPDATE...
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE STREAMING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY WEBPAGE SHOWS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE AMONG THE
HIGHEST VALUES ON RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN CHARLESTON
AND MID 60S ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW DAILY MAXES AT
MOREHEAD CITY. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA DEVELOPING FROM SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD FADE
OVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, HOWEVER EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INLAND. [DISC]

No changes have been made to forecast lows, 65–68°, almost 20° above normal and near the warmest observed for April 3 at our four main climate sites. ∨

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS, 65 TO 68 DEGREES,
ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR THE WARMEST OBSERVED
FOR APRIL 3 AT OUR FOUR MAIN CLIMATE SITES. [DISC]

Near term (through Thursday)… high pressure centered over New England will shift eastward through tonight, supporting continued southeasterly flow. As a stalled front lifts back northward tonight, expect winds to continue veering and end up at southerly before daybreak. As this occurs, mid-level height rises will begin in earnest as an anomalously strong upper high builds over the Atlantic Ocean just north of the Bahamas. This will translate into early-summer-like warmth, with plenty of stratus overhead resulting in overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. After starting out humid and mostly cloudy, sunshine will help to break the UP the clouds by midday and boost daytime highs on Thursday into the mid-upper 80s inland and low 80s nearer to the coast. ∨

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT, SUPPORTING CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. AS A STALLED FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT, EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE VEERING AND
END UP AT SOUTHERLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO EARLY-SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH, WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS
OVERHEAD RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. AFTER
STARTING OUT HUMID AND MOSTLY CLOUDY, SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO BREAK
THE UP THE CLOUDS BY MIDDAY AND BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW 80S NEARER TO THE COAST. [DISC]

Short term (Thursday night through Sunday)… deep ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather over the eastern Carolinas Thursday night through the weekend. Deep southerly flow around the center of the ridge over the waters to our east will provide a continuous flow of warm and moist air for several days. This will produce dewpoints into the 60s. Anomalously high H5 [height of the 500 mb level (nominally 18,000 ft)] heights and 850 temps will lead to temps well into the 80s inland. Potential for our first 90° day in spots inland, especially in the Pee Dee region. The cooler ocean waters will keep temps along the beaches and closer to the coast several degrees lower, especially with a decent sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s in a warm and more humid airmass. ∨

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WATERS TO
OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH H5 HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND. POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
IN SPOTS INLAND, ESPECIALLY IN THE PEE DEE REGION. THE COOLER
OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE BEACHES AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER, ESPECIALLY WITH A DECENT SEA
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S IN A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. [DISC]

May see some morning fog. Soundings showing some indication of shallow moisture stuck under subsidence inversion, mainly early morning, but the deep dry column above should mix down and provide plenty of sunshine through much of the day. Intermittent sea fog may affect coastal locales as very warm and moist air flows over the cool shelf waters. ∨

MAY SEE SOME MORNING FOG. SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME INDICATION OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE STUCK UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, MAINLY EARLY
MORNING, BUT THE DEEP DRY COLUMN ABOVE SHOULD MIX DOWN AND PROVIDE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INTERMITTENT SEA
FOG MAY AFFECT COASTAL LOCALES AS VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS
OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS. [DISC]

Long term (Sunday night through Wednesday)… a deep mid to upper trough will push a cold front into the Carolinas on Sunday. Moisture will increase through the column in a deep S-SW flow bringing PCP water values from an inch or less previous days up to 1.8 inches into the I-95 corridor by Sunday evening. As moisture through the column increases into Sunday eve, do see some increasing CAPE [Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. Related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.] inland, but it remains elevated. Overall, should see increasing clouds and chance of showers and ISO [Kinston/Stalling NC] thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late Sunday into Monday. ∨

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN IN A
DEEP S-SW FLOW BRINGING PCP WATER VALUES FROM AN INCH OR LESS
PREVIOUS DAYS UP TO 1.8 INCHES INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY SUN
EVENING. AS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASES INTO SUN EVE,
DO SEE SOME INCREASING CAPE INLAND, BUT IT REMAINS ELEVATED.
OVERALL, SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF SHWRS AND ISO
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO MONDAY. [DISC]

Temps should only reach into the 70s on Monday due to clouds and PCP and by Monday night into Tuesday, much cooler air will move in behind front. Overnight lows Monday night will be down below 50 most places and highs on Tuesday only in the 60s. Overall, cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind the cold front into midweek with PCP water values dropping down to a half inch by Tuesday morning and dropping further into Wednesday. Temps on Wednesday may only reach the lower 60s and may even see potential for frost Wednesday night as temps drop below 40 most places inland. ∨

TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S ON MON DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCP AND BY MON NIGHT INTO TUES, MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE DOWN BELOW 50
MOST PLACES AND HIGHS ON TUES ONLY IN THE 60S. OVERALL, COOLER
AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO
MIDWEEK WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO A HALF INCH BY
TUES MORNING AND DROPPING FURTHER INTO WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S AND MAY EVEN SEE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES INLAND. [DISC]

Aviation (06Z [2am EDT] Thursday through Monday)… veering low level winds will maintain tropical humidity across the eastern Carolinas into today. Ceilings in the vicinity of 1 kft are likely to persist for several hours inland. Along the coast such ceilings are likely to be of shorter duration. Overall, expect gradually improving conditions toward daybreak as winds become more southerly with VFR [Visual Flight Rules] anticipated all terminals by about mid-morning. ∨

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO TODAY. CIGS INVOF 1 KFT ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL HOURS INLAND.  ALONG THE COAST SUCH CIGS ARE LIKELY TO
BE OF SHORTER DURATION.  OVERALL, EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH VFR
ANTICIPATED ALL TERMINALS BY ABOUT MID-MORNING. [AVIA]

Extended outlook. Primarily VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the period. Early morning visibility/ceiling restrictions are possible each morning from Thursday morning onward as abnormally high dew points move in. A cold front approaching from the west will likely bring additional restrictions from late Sunday through Monday. ∨

EXTENDED OUTLOOK... PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING FROM
THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD AS ABNORMALLY HIGH DEW POINTS MOVE IN. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY BRING
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. [DISC]

Marine. Through Thursday… high pressure well north of the waters will maintain southeasterly winds into tonight. As a stalled front lifts back northward overnight, expect winds to veer to southerly by the end of the night and remain southerly through Thursday. Seas in the 2–4 ft range this afternoon and evening increase to 3–5 ft tonight before subsiding slightly on Thursday. Waves will be dominated by continued southeasterly swells with a period around 8 second and accentuated by wind waves out of the south. ∨

.MARINE...
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO TONIGHT. AS A STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY THE
END OF THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCREASE TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT
BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY. WAVES WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD AROUND 8 SEC AND
ACCENTUATED BY WIND WAVES OUT OF THE SOUTH. [AVIA]

Thursday night through Monday… high pressure off shore will maintain a persistent S-SW flow through the weekend and up until a cold front moves through on Monday night. The winds will become gusty in decent sea breeze each afternoon near shore but will increase across the area up to 15–20 kts [17–23 mph] with higher gusts Saturday night into Sunday as gradient tightens as cold front approaches the Carolinas. Expect gusty SW winds to veer to the W behind front heading into Tuesday morning. ∨

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND UP
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MON NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY IN DECENT SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE BUT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS TO VEER TO THE W
BEHIND FRONT HEADING INTO TUES MORNING. [AVI2]

Seas will remain in the 3–4 ft range over most waters through Saturday but will build heading into Sunday in increasing southerly push. Small Craft Advisory conditions will become more likely beginning late Sunday and should last into Monday night. ∨

SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE OVER MOST WATERS THROUGH
SAT BUT WILL BUILD HEADING INTO SUN IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
PUSH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE SUN AND SHOULD LAST INTO MON NIGHT. [AVI2]

ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

North Carolina: none.
South Carolina: none.
Marine: none. ∨

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE. [WARN]

Synopsis: ILM; Update: TRA; Near Term: ABW/31; Short Term: RGZ; Long Term: RGZ; Aviation: 31; Marine: RGZ/ABW ∨

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...ABW/31
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...31
MARINE...RGZ/ABW [CRED]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 030534 AFDILM ∨ FXUS62 KILM 030534 AFDILM [HEAD] National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 1:32am EDT Wed Apr 3 2025 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 132 AM EDT WED APR 3 2025 [HEAD] Synopsis. A warm front will lift north tonight with unseasonable warmth arriving Thursday through Sunday. The next meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday accompanying a cold front. Much cooler and drier air will follow on Tuesday into midweek. ∨ .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH ARRIVING THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK. [DISC] Update. Exceptionally high dewpoints for early April are streaming onshore across the eastern Carolinas. The SPC [Storm Prediction Center] sounding climatology webpage shows upper 60s dewpoints are among the highest values on record for this time of year in Charleston and mid 60s are only a degree or two below daily maxes at Morehead City. Isolated convective showers across eastern South Carolina developing from surface-based instability should fade over over the next couple of hours, however extensive low level moisture should keep plenty of low clouds around through the night, especially inland. ∨ .UPDATE... EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE STREAMING ONSHORE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY WEBPAGE SHOWS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE AMONG THE HIGHEST VALUES ON RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN CHARLESTON AND MID 60S ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW DAILY MAXES AT MOREHEAD CITY. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA DEVELOPING FROM SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD FADE OVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, HOWEVER EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INLAND. [DISC] No changes have been made to forecast lows, 65–68°, almost 20° above normal and near the warmest observed for April 3 at our four main climate sites. ∨ NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS, 65 TO 68 DEGREES, ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR THE WARMEST OBSERVED FOR APRIL 3 AT OUR FOUR MAIN CLIMATE SITES. [DISC] Near term (through Thursday)… high pressure centered over New England will shift eastward through tonight, supporting continued southeasterly flow. As a stalled front lifts back northward tonight, expect winds to continue veering and end up at southerly before daybreak. As this occurs, mid-level height rises will begin in earnest as an anomalously strong upper high builds over the Atlantic Ocean just north of the Bahamas. This will translate into early-summer-like warmth, with plenty of stratus overhead resulting in overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. After starting out humid and mostly cloudy, sunshine will help to break the UP the clouds by midday and boost daytime highs on Thursday into the mid-upper 80s inland and low 80s nearer to the coast. ∨ .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, SUPPORTING CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. AS A STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT, EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE VEERING AND END UP AT SOUTHERLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS THIS OCCURS, MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO EARLY-SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH, WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS OVERHEAD RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. AFTER STARTING OUT HUMID AND MOSTLY CLOUDY, SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO BREAK THE UP THE CLOUDS BY MIDDAY AND BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW 80S NEARER TO THE COAST. [DISC] Short term (Thursday night through Sunday)… deep ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather over the eastern Carolinas Thursday night through the weekend. Deep southerly flow around the center of the ridge over the waters to our east will provide a continuous flow of warm and moist air for several days. This will produce dewpoints into the 60s. Anomalously high H5 [height of the 500 mb level (nominally 18,000 ft)] heights and 850 temps will lead to temps well into the 80s inland. Potential for our first 90° day in spots inland, especially in the Pee Dee region. The cooler ocean waters will keep temps along the beaches and closer to the coast several degrees lower, especially with a decent sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s in a warm and more humid airmass. ∨ .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WATERS TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PRODUCE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH H5 HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND. POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY IN SPOTS INLAND, ESPECIALLY IN THE PEE DEE REGION. THE COOLER OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE BEACHES AND CLOSER TO THE COAST SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER, ESPECIALLY WITH A DECENT SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S IN A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. [DISC] May see some morning fog. Soundings showing some indication of shallow moisture stuck under subsidence inversion, mainly early morning, but the deep dry column above should mix down and provide plenty of sunshine through much of the day. Intermittent sea fog may affect coastal locales as very warm and moist air flows over the cool shelf waters. ∨ MAY SEE SOME MORNING FOG. SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME INDICATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE STUCK UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, MAINLY EARLY MORNING, BUT THE DEEP DRY COLUMN ABOVE SHOULD MIX DOWN AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INTERMITTENT SEA FOG MAY AFFECT COASTAL LOCALES AS VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COOL SHELF WATERS. [DISC] Long term (Sunday night through Wednesday)… a deep mid to upper trough will push a cold front into the Carolinas on Sunday. Moisture will increase through the column in a deep S-SW flow bringing PCP water values from an inch or less previous days up to 1.8 inches into the I-95 corridor by Sunday evening. As moisture through the column increases into Sunday eve, do see some increasing CAPE [Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. Related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.] inland, but it remains elevated. Overall, should see increasing clouds and chance of showers and ISO [Kinston/Stalling NC] thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late Sunday into Monday. ∨ .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN IN A DEEP S-SW FLOW BRINGING PCP WATER VALUES FROM AN INCH OR LESS PREVIOUS DAYS UP TO 1.8 INCHES INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY SUN EVENING. AS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASES INTO SUN EVE, DO SEE SOME INCREASING CAPE INLAND, BUT IT REMAINS ELEVATED. OVERALL, SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF SHWRS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO MONDAY. [DISC] Temps should only reach into the 70s on Monday due to clouds and PCP and by Monday night into Tuesday, much cooler air will move in behind front. Overnight lows Monday night will be down below 50 most places and highs on Tuesday only in the 60s. Overall, cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind the cold front into midweek with PCP water values dropping down to a half inch by Tuesday morning and dropping further into Wednesday. Temps on Wednesday may only reach the lower 60s and may even see potential for frost Wednesday night as temps drop below 40 most places inland. ∨ TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE 70S ON MON DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCP AND BY MON NIGHT INTO TUES, MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE DOWN BELOW 50 MOST PLACES AND HIGHS ON TUES ONLY IN THE 60S. OVERALL, COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO MIDWEEK WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO A HALF INCH BY TUES MORNING AND DROPPING FURTHER INTO WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S AND MAY EVEN SEE POTENTIAL FOR FROST WED NIGHT AS TEMPS DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES INLAND. [DISC] Aviation (06Z [2am EDT] Thursday through Monday)… veering low level winds will maintain tropical humidity across the eastern Carolinas into today. Ceilings in the vicinity of 1 kft are likely to persist for several hours inland. Along the coast such ceilings are likely to be of shorter duration. Overall, expect gradually improving conditions toward daybreak as winds become more southerly with VFR [Visual Flight Rules] anticipated all terminals by about mid-morning. ∨ .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO TODAY. CIGS INVOF 1 KFT ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS INLAND. ALONG THE COAST SUCH CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE OF SHORTER DURATION. OVERALL, EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH VFR ANTICIPATED ALL TERMINALS BY ABOUT MID-MORNING. [AVIA] Extended outlook. Primarily VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the period. Early morning visibility/ceiling restrictions are possible each morning from Thursday morning onward as abnormally high dew points move in. A cold front approaching from the west will likely bring additional restrictions from late Sunday through Monday. ∨ EXTENDED OUTLOOK... PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING FROM THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD AS ABNORMALLY HIGH DEW POINTS MOVE IN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. [DISC] Marine. Through Thursday… high pressure well north of the waters will maintain southeasterly winds into tonight. As a stalled front lifts back northward overnight, expect winds to veer to southerly by the end of the night and remain southerly through Thursday. Seas in the 2–4 ft range this afternoon and evening increase to 3–5 ft tonight before subsiding slightly on Thursday. Waves will be dominated by continued southeasterly swells with a period around 8 second and accentuated by wind waves out of the south. ∨ .MARINE... THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO TONIGHT. AS A STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCREASE TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY. WAVES WILL BE DOMINATED BY CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WITH A PERIOD AROUND 8 SEC AND ACCENTUATED BY WIND WAVES OUT OF THE SOUTH. [AVIA] Thursday night through Monday… high pressure off shore will maintain a persistent S-SW flow through the weekend and up until a cold front moves through on Monday night. The winds will become gusty in decent sea breeze each afternoon near shore but will increase across the area up to 15–20 kts [17–23 mph] with higher gusts Saturday night into Sunday as gradient tightens as cold front approaches the Carolinas. Expect gusty SW winds to veer to the W behind front heading into Tuesday morning. ∨ THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND UP UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MON NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN DECENT SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS TO VEER TO THE W BEHIND FRONT HEADING INTO TUES MORNING. [AVI2] Seas will remain in the 3–4 ft range over most waters through Saturday but will build heading into Sunday in increasing southerly push. Small Craft Advisory conditions will become more likely beginning late Sunday and should last into Monday night. ∨ SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE OVER MOST WATERS THROUGH SAT BUT WILL BUILD HEADING INTO SUN IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE SUN AND SHOULD LAST INTO MON NIGHT. [AVI2] ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories North Carolina: none. South Carolina: none. Marine: none. ∨ .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. [WARN] Synopsis: ILM; Update: TRA; Near Term: ABW/31; Short Term: RGZ; Long Term: RGZ; Aviation: 31; Marine: RGZ/ABW ∨ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...ABW/31 SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...31 MARINE...RGZ/ABW [CRED]	Point Forecast Wilmington NC 3 Apr 1:53am EDT Overnight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67°. South wind around 8 mph. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 81°. South wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 66°. South wind around 7 mph. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82°. SW wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 64°. SW wind 5 to 7 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82°. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 66°. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82°. Sunday Night A chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66°. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Showers likely, mainly after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77°. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67°. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 40°. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 62°. Overnight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 8 mph. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind around 7 mph. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Sunday Night A chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Showers likely, mainly after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 40. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 62.
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