Area Forecast Discussion FXUS62 KILM [Wilmington NC] 231105 AFDILM ∨ FXUS62 KILM 231105 AFDILM [HEAD] National Weather Service Wilmington North Carolina 6:05am EST Sat Nov 23 2024 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 605 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024 [HEAD] Synopsis. Dry conditions with unseasonably chilly temperatures will continue through tonight. High pressure will then move off the coast bringing warmer temperatures early next week. A passing cold front and a storm system are likely to bring cooler temperatures and some rain mid week. ∨ .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PASSING COLD FRONT AND A STORM SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN MID WEEK. [DISC] Near term (through tonight)… after a chilly start to the day, temps rebound a bit this afternoon with highs around 60°F, which is still a bit below normal. Our area remains between a strong low pressure system exiting the northeast and surface high pressure to the southwest. While the high begins to expand into the Carolinas this afternoon, lingering tightened pressure gradient will produce gusts of 20–25 mph today, particularly across southeast North Carolina. Excellent radiational cooling tonight, courtesy of expanded high pressure from the southwest, will dominate over a modifying air mass to bring one more night of lows in the 30s. Good chance for patchy to areas of frost tonight away from the coast, with some traditional cold spots potentially dropping to 32°F or lower. ∨ .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, TEMPS REBOUND A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F, WHICH IS STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL. OUR AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NORTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE HIGH BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON, LINGERING TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 20-25MPH TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, COURTESY OF EXPANDED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WILL DOMINATE OVER A MODIFYING AIR MASS TO BRING ONE MORE NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE 30S. GOOD CHANCE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH SOME TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO 32F OR LOWER. [DISC] Short term (Sunday through Monday night)… highlights: *mostly dry with near to above normal temperatures ∨ .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGHLIGHTS: *MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES [DISC] Confidence: *moderate to high ∨ CONFIDENCE: *MODERATE TO HIGH [DISC] Details: ∨ DETAILS: [CRED] Expect dry conditions to continue with moderating temperatures as high pressure shifts offshore, although there could be a few showers inland late Monday night. Temperatures should be near normal Sunday and above normal Monday. ∨ EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. [DISC] Long term (Tuesday through Friday)… highlights: *above normal temps Tuesday, generally near to above normal temps Tuesday night through Thursday night, then likely below normal temps Friday *a cold front and storm system will bring some showers mid to late week ∨ .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS: *ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE, GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT, THEN LIKELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI *A COLD FRONT AND STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS MID TO LATE WEEK [DISC] Confidence: *moderate Tuesday through Wednesday night *low to moderate Thursday through Friday ∨ CONFIDENCE: *MODERATE TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT *LOW TO MODERATE THU THROUGH FRI [DISC] Details: ∨ DETAILS: [CRED] A mainly dry cold front should push through Tuesday bringing cooler and drier air to the area through Wednesday night. The forecast then becomes a bit more uncertain as the cooler high pressure system tries to hang on as a warm front advances into the region ahead of a storm system approaching from the west. The main low should exit offshore to the north pushing a cold front through SE North Carolina and NE SC Thursday night/early Friday. Moisture and forcing appear more abundant with this system and thus rain amounts should be pretty decent (~0.5–1"), although due to some timing uncertainty we kept rain chances capped at 40% for now. If current timing holds though, rain will be ending early Friday with colder air moving in during the day. Thus, highs Friday could actually occur earlier in the day. ∨ A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO HANG ON AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW SHOULD EXIT OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SE NC AND NE SC THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEAR MORE ABUNDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY DECENT (~0.5-1"), ALTHOUGH DUE TO SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY WE KEPT RAIN CHANCES CAPPED AT 40% FOR NOW. IF CURRENT TIMING HOLDS THOUGH, RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY FRI WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE DAY. THUS, HIGHS FRI COULD ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY. [DISC] Aviation (11Z [6am EST] Saturday through Wednesday)… VFR [Visual Flight Rules]. Gusty northwest winds during the day today, with gusts to 15–20 kts [17–23 mph], potentially to 25 kts [29 mph] across southeast North Carolina where the pressure gradient remains tighter. Clear skies, outside of a few mid clouds across southeast North Carolina this afternoon. Calm winds tonight but expected to be too dry for fog. ∨ .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS, POTENTIALLY TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTER. CLEAR SKIES, OUTSIDE OF A FEW MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC THIS AFTERNOON. CALM WINDS TONIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY FOR FOG. [AVIA] Extended outlook. Expect VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through at least early Tuesday as high pressure maintains control, with a low risk of restrictions later Tuesday as a cold front approaches. ∨ EXTENDED OUTLOOK... EXPECT VFR THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL, WITH A LOW RISK OF RESTRICTIONS LATER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. [DISC] Marine. Through tonight… gusty offshore winds will linger through late morning, sustained around 20 kts [23 mph] and gusts up to 30 kts [35 mph], and therefore the Small Craft Advisory has been extended until 16Z [11am EST]. Winds will be decreasing throughout the day and into tonight as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Winds around 15 kts [17 mph] this afternoon, with gusts to 20 kts [23 mph], lower to 10 kts [12 mph] or less tonight. Similarly, seas will be improving quickly through the day as the offshore wind wave weakens, with 2–5 ft seas around sunrise lowering to 1–2 ft by tonight. ∨ .MARINE... THROUGH TONIGHT...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING, SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS, AND THEREFORE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 16Z. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS, LOWER TO 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. SIMILARLY, SEAS WILL BE IMPROVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE OFFSHORE WIND WAVE WEAKENS, WITH 2-5 FT SEAS AROUND SUNRISE LOWERING TO 1-2 FT BY TONIGHT. [AVIA] Sunday through Wednesday… high pressure offshore will lead to southerly winds, elevated at times, into Tuesday before a cold front passes through later in the day and Tuesday night. High pressure will then return from the north bringing a little surge in northerly winds into early Wednesday. However, no Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated. ∨ SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS, ELEVATED AT TIMES, INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY AND TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING A LITTLE SURGE IN NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY WED. HOWEVER, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. [AVI2] ILM [Wilmington NC] Watches/Warnings/Advisories
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. [WARN] Synopsis: ILM; Near Term: VAO; Short Term: RJB; Long Term: RJB; Aviation: VAO; Marine: RJB/VAO ∨ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...VAO MARINE...RJB/VAO [CRED] |
Point Forecast Wilmington NC 23 Nov 6:53am EST Today Sunny, with a high near 61°. NW wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 40°. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 66°. Calm wind becoming SW 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 46°. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 71°. Light west wind becoming SW 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55°. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73°. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44°. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64°. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°. Thanksgiving Day A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 68°. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 62°. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Today Sunny, with a high near 61. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 40. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 46. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 71. Light west wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Thanksgiving Day A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
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