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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 201122 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 201122
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 4:22am PDT Fri Apr 20 2018 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
422 AM PDT FRI APR 20 2018 [HEAD]

Synopsis. A warmer trend and dry weather are forecast through the upcoming weekend. A weak cutoff low [A closed upper-level low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from basic westerly current, and moves independently of that current. Cutoff lows may remain nearly stationary for days, or on occasion may move westward opposite to the prevailing flow aloft] approaches the state after midweek. 

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMER TREND AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES THE STATE AFTER
MIDWEEK. [DISC]

Discussion. As of 3:33am PDT Friday… satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the district except for some low clouds over the ocean starting to touch the coast along the San Francisco Peninsula as well as near Monterey and north of Point Sur [Big Sur CA]. Temperatures are generally warmer than they were 24 hours ago with readings in the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Highs today are expected to warm into the 60s and 70s. 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:33 AM PDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE OCEAN STARTING TO TOUCH THE COAST ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO
PENINSULA AS WELL AS NEAR MONTEREY AND NORTH OF POINT SUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S. [DISC]

High pressure aloft is forecast to build in over the state during the weekend resulting in warmer temperatures with highs across inland areas reaching the mid 80s by Saturday. A weak upper trough is forecast to brush across Northern California on Sunday for slight cooling, mainly across the North Bay Area. Slight cooling to extend across the remainder of the district by Monday. 

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE STATE DURING
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS REACHING THE MID 80S BY SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY
FOR SLIGHT COOLING, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AREA. SLIGHT
COOLING TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISTRICT BY MONDAY. [DISC]

Medium range models continue to indicate a cutoff low [A closed upper-level low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from basic westerly current, and moves independently of that current. Cutoff lows may remain nearly stationary for days, or on occasion may move westward opposite to the prevailing flow aloft] forming off the California coast around the middle of next week. The solutions vary regarding the position of cutoff low [A closed upper-level low which has become completely displaced (cut off) from basic westerly current, and moves independently of that current. Cutoff lows may remain nearly stationary for days, or on occasion may move westward opposite to the prevailing flow aloft] as well as when it tracks inland. Most likely impacts will be in increasing marine layer and onshore flow, thus cooler temperatures. The possibility of showers as the trough tracks inland exists, but confidence is low. 

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CUTOFF LOW FORMING
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE POSITION OF CUTOFF LOW AS WELL AS
WHEN IT TRACKS INLAND. MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL BE IN INCREASING
MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW, THUS COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH TRACKS INLAND EXISTS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. [DISC]

Aviation. As of 4:22am PDT Friday for 12Z [5am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Infrared satellite shows an area of low clouds extending along the coast from Half Moon Bay south toward the Monterey Peninsula. Most terminals can expect VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions to prevail through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period, though expect some MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings to return at KMRY [Monterey CA] and perhaps KSNS [Salinas CA] at times through mid-morning. Onshore winds are expected again this afternoon around 10–20 kt [12–23 mph]. Overall medium confidence. 

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:22 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR 12Z TAFS. INFRARED
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST
FROM HALF MOON BAY SOUTH TOWARD THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. MOST
TERMINALS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN AT KMRY AND
PERHAPS KSNS AT TIMES THROUGH MID-MORNING. ONSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. [AVIA]

Vicinity of KSFO [San Francisco CA]VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions are expected to prevail through the day. Light winds in the morning will increase in the afternoon and evening to around 20 kt [23 mph] (and possibly higher). Winds are forecast to diminish after sunset. 

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO AROUND 20 KT (AND POSSIBLY HIGHER). WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to KSFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… an area of low clouds is presently approaching the Monterey Bay shoreline. This will result in a period of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings at KMRY [Monterey CA] and possibly KSNS [Salinas CA] this morning. Onshore winds will reach 10–15 kt [12–17 mph] in the afternoon. Models hint at another opportunity for low clouds after sunset, but confidence remains low at this time. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS PRESENTLY
APPROACHING THE MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KMRY AND POSSIBLY KSNS THIS MORNING.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT
AT ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. [AVI2]

Marine. As of 2:42am PDT Friday… breezy northwest winds will continue over the coastal waters as high pressure remains over the eastern Pacific. These winds will generate steep wind waves and fresh swell, resulting in hazardous seas into the weekend. 

.MARINE...AS OF 2:42 AM PDT FRIDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP WIND WAVES AND
FRESH SWELL, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND. [AVIA]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • Today: Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] Small Craft AdvisoryPigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles] 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM [WARN]

Public Forecast: Sims; Aviation: Rowe; Marine: Rowe 

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: ROWE
MARINE: ROWE [CRED]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay Airport

20 Apr 7:20am PDT

Today Sunny, with a high near 60°. Light WNW wind becoming NW 13 to 18 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.
Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 46°. NW wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 62°. NNW wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46°. WNW wind 11 to 16 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 61°. NNW wind 7 to 14 mph.
Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 47°.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Today
Sunny, with a high near 60. Light west northwest wind becoming northwest 13 to 18 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Northwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 62. North northwest wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46. West northwest wind 11 to 16 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 61. North northwest wind 7 to 14 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: