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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 281553 AFDMTR 

FXUS66 KMTR 281553
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 8:53am PDT Thu Mar 28 2024 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
853 AM PDT THU MAR 28 2024 [HEAD]

New update, marine.  

...NEW UPDATE, MARINE... [DISC]

Synopsis. Issued at 3:04am PDT Thursday Mar 28 2024 

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM PDT THU MAR 28 2024 [DISC]

Breezy and cool today with only a few passing showers. Southerly winds increase Friday morning ahead of the next storm that will bring rain and scattered thunderstorms to the region Friday into Saturday. Drying trend Sunday as high pressure builds and lasts through the middle of next week with a return to dry and seasonably mild weather. 

BREEZY AND COOL TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM THAT WILL
BRING RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND LASTS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER. [DISC]

Update. Issued at 8:52am PDT Thursday Mar 28 2024 

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM PDT THU MAR 28 2024 [DISC]

Rain showers are currently moving through the region south of San Francisco, impacting KSFO [San Francisco CA], and portions of the East Bay at this hour. Additional showers are moving across the Santa Cruz Mountains, into the Santa Clara Valley, soon to impact the Central Coast, while light rain is being reported as far north as KSTS [Santa Rosa CA] (Santa Rosa). However, most of the region will be dry today and tonight outside of passing showers. 

RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO, IMPACTING KSFO, AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST BAY AT THIS
HOUR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS,
INTO THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY, SOON TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL COAST, WHILE
LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS KSTS (SANTA ROSA).
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF
PASSING SHOWERS. [DISC]

Short term. (today and tonight) issued at 3:04am PDT Thursday Mar 28 2024 

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM PDT THU MAR 28 2024 [DISC]

Light to locally moderate showers will move through the region today in the wake of last night's cold front and under the influence of the trough building to the north. Expect cloudy and cool conditions between the showers through the day, with showers becoming more isolated into the the evening. Expect a brief pause in rain chances Thursday night, but the next system arrives Friday morning. 

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE TROUGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH. EXPECT CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED INTO THE THE EVENING. EXPECT A BRIEF PAUSE
IN RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY
MORNING. [DISC]

Long term. (Friday through Wednesday) issued at 3:04am PDT Thursday Mar 28 2024 

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM PDT THU MAR 28 2024 [DISC]

Another quicker-moving cold front and low pressure move into the region along the current trough pattern. While the cold front moves inland, the low looks to remain along the coast line and begin to slowly progress southward. This places light warm-sector showers in the North Bay starting early Friday with the main rain band along the cold front moving inland late Friday morning and into that afternoon. Breezy to gusty winds build ahead the front and linger into that night. Wind Advisories have been issued for the San Francisco Peninsula coast, Santa Cruz Mountains, East Bay hills, coastal Monterey Bay, the Big Sur coast and San Benito Co. 

ANOTHER QUICKER-MOVING COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG THE CURRENT TROUGH PATTERN. WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INLAND, THE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST LINE AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. THIS PLACES LIGHT WARM-SECTOR SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH BAY STARTING EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN RAIN BAND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO
THAT AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS BUILD AHEAD THE FRONT AND
LINGER INTO THAT NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST, SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS, EAST BAY
HILLS, COASTAL MONTEREY BAY, THE BIG SUR COAST AND SAN BENITO CO. [DISC]

Thunderstorm and scattered shower chances move in behind the main rain band. The spread of these post frontal rains still spread across the Bay Area and Central Coast Friday night through Saturday evening, with storm chances peaking around 25% during that time frame. Shower activity begins to dissipate into Saturday night, rain exiting Sunday as the low continues to move south. 

THUNDERSTORM AND SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN
RAIN BAND. THE SPREAD OF THESE POST FRONTAL RAINS STILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH STORM CHANCES PEAKING AROUND 25% DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, RAIN
EXITING SUNDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. [DISC]

Rainfall totals from early Friday through Sunday morning look to range from: 

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO
RANGE FROM: [DISC]

-0.5" to 1" for most areas –1" to 1.25" for coastal low lands and interior North Bay –1.25" to 2" for higher elevations along the coast - and above 2" for the highest peaks along the coast with some isolated areas on the Big Sur coast reaching above 3" 

-0.5" TO 1" FOR MOST AREAS
-1" TO 1.25" FOR COASTAL LOW LANDS AND INTERIOR NORTH BAY
-1.25" TO 2" FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE COAST
- AND ABOVE 2" FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME
ISOLATED AREAS ON THE BIG SUR COAST REACHING ABOVE 3" [DISC]

This system still offers some variability, so be sure to keep checking in. 

THIS SYSTEM STILL OFFERS SOME VARIABILITY, SO BE SURE TO KEEP
CHECKING IN. [DISC]

After Sunday, dry weather returns as a ridge pattern forms over the California coast. 

AFTER SUNDAY, DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS A RIDGE PATTERN FORMS OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. [DISC]

Aviation. (12Z [5am PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 4:29am PDT Thursday Mar 28 2024 

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 429 AM PDT THU MAR 28 2024 [AVIA]

Currently VFR [Visual Flight Rules] across the board with just a few rain showers detected across the region. Today will be a transition day between the exiting cold front and the approaching low pressure system that will yield VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions and breezy westerly winds, an infrequent rain shower may still impact a terminal through this morning. Towards the end of the 30-hour TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period, winds begin to shift to a southerly heading and become gusty ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Rain will impact the terminals just beyond the current TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. 

CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE BOARD WITH JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
DETECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS,
AN INFREQUENT RAIN SHOWER MAY STILL IMPACT A TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30-HOUR TAF PERIOD, WINDS BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY HEADING AND BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… currently VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with breezy southerly flow as a rain shower passes over the terminal. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Winds will become breezy out of the west by this afternoon. Towards the end of the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period, winds begin to shift to a southerly heading and become gusty ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Rain will impact the terminal just beyond the current TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. 

VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A RAIN
SHOWER PASSES OVER THE TERMINAL. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY HEADING
AND BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… currently VFR [Visual Flight Rules] with westerly flow at MRY [Monterey CA] and VFR [Visual Flight Rules] and calm at SNS [Salinas CA]. VFR [Visual Flight Rules] through the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] period. Winds will become breezy out of the west at both terminals by this afternoon. 

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT MRY AND
VFR AND CALM AT SNS. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST AT BOTH TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON. [AVI2]

Marine. (today through Tuesday) issued at 8:52am PDT Thursday Mar 28 2024 

.MARINE...
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 852 AM PDT THU MAR 28 2024 [AVIA]

Scattered showers continue to move over the coastal waters as yesterday's cold front exits the area and a second low pressure system approaches. Gentle to moderate westerly to northwesterly breezes will continue through the remainder of Thursday before moderate to strong southwesterly winds develop ahead of the approaching low pressure system. Gale force gusts will become more likely, particularly across the southernmost marine zones, Friday into Saturday. Light to moderate scattered showers will start early Friday before transitioning to widespread moderate rain heading into the mid morning. There is a 25% chance for scattered thunderstorms over the waters Friday morning-Saturday night. 

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA AND A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. GENTLE TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY BEFORE
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST MARINE ZONES, FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL START
EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN
HEADING INTO THE MID MORNING. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING-SATURDAY NIGHT. [AVI2]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

  • California: Wind Advisory from 11am Friday to 5am PDT Saturday for CAZ509–512–515–517–518–529–530. 
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ509-
512-515-517-518-529-530. [WARN]
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE. [WRN2]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY. [WRN2]
  • Gale Warning from 3pm to 9pm PDT Friday for Monterey Bay. 
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY. [WRN2]
  • Small Craft Advisory until 9pm PDT Friday for Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM. [WRN2]
  • Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to 9pm PDT Friday for Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] to Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM. [WRN2]
  • Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to 9am PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]
  • Gale Warning from 9am to 9pm PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]-Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] to Pt Piedras Blancas [San Simeon CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM. [WRN2]
  • Small Craft Advisory until 9am PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM. [WRN2]
  • Update: rgass short term…murdock long term…murdock aviation…sarment marine…Kennedy 
UPDATE...RGASS
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...KENNEDY [WRN2]
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK]

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Point Forecast

Half Moon Bay Airport

28 Mar 09:55am PDT

Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57°. West wind around 9 mph.
Tonight Cloudy, with a low around 46°. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south after midnight.
Friday Rain. High near 55°. Breezy, with a SSE wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Friday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 47°. Breezy, with a SSE wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Rain likely before 11am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58°. ESE wind around 11 mph becoming NE in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night A 30% chance of rain before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46°. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48°.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 62°.
Monday Night Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 47°.
Tuesday Patchy fog. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 62°.
Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60°.
Today
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. West wind around 9 mph.
Tonight
Cloudy, with a low around 46. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south after midnight.
Friday
Rain. High near 55. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 47. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday
Rain likely before 11am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. East southeast wind around 11 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A 30 percent chance of rain before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 62.
Monday Night
Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Tuesday
Patchy fog. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 62.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

This page is generated dynamically from the National Weather Service's NWS point forecast and Area Forecast Discussion, reformatted for readability. NWS glossary; about point forecasts. For more information, visit the Lobitos Weather Project home page. Comments and corrections are welcome: