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FXUS66 KLOX [Los Angeles/Oxna CA] 052139 AFDLOX ∨

FXUS66 KLOX 052139
AFDLOX [HEAD]

Updated
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 2:39pm PDT Sun May 5 2024 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
239 PM PDT SUN MAY 5 2024 [HEAD]

Synopsis. 05/1:14pm. ∨

.SYNOPSIS...05/114 PM. [DISC]

A cold storm system has shifted east today, leaving cooler temperatures and gusty west to northwest winds. A warming trend will begin Monday and continue through Wednesday, then little change into next weekend. Gusty northerly winds are expected at times, especially in the mountains and in southern Santa Barbara County. ∨

A COLD STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST TODAY, LEAVING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LITTLE
CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. [DISC]

Short term (today–Wednesday)… 05/1:41pm. ∨

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...05/141 PM. [DISC]

The storm has passed but it has left behind some cool and blustery winds across the area, especially near the coast as well as the mountains and Antelope Valley. Winds are expected to settle down in most areas overnight, however, gusty northerly flow will continue across the area through mid week and chances are high that Wind Advisories will be needed most of if not all days, at least for the late afternoon and overnight hours across in southern Santa Barbara County and possibly in the I-5 corridor as well. ∨

THE STORM HAS PASSED BUT IT HAS LEFT BEHIND SOME COOL AND BLUSTERY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN
IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AND CHANCES ARE HIGH
THAT WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED MOST OF IF NOT ALL DAYS, AT
LEAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS IN
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND POSSIBLY IN THE I5 CORRIDOR AS
WELL. [DISC]

Temperatures will turn warmer Monday (especially inland) as heights rise and offshore flow creates some downslope warming. This will also either eliminate or at least minimize any marine layer return. High temps should creep back into the lower 80s across the warmer valleys Monday, and likely mid 80s Tuesday/Wednesday as a high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific nudges closer to the coastline. Not quite as warm at the coast which, despite the light offshore flow, will still get a decent sea breeze each afternoon. And with ocean temps still mostly in the high 50s, that sea breeze will cut into the temperatures quite a bit near the coast. ∨

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER MONDAY (ESPECIALLY INLAND) AS
HEIGHTS RISE AND OFFSHORE FLOW CREATES SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
THIS WILL ALSO EITHER ELIMINATE OR AT LEAST MINIMIZE ANY MARINE
LAYER RETURN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CREEP BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE WARMER VALLEYS MONDAY, AND LIKELY MID 80S TUE/WED AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NUDGES CLOSER TO
THE COASTLINE. NOT QUITE AS WARM AT THE COAST WHICH, DESPITE THE
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW, WILL STILL GET A DECENT SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON. AND WITH OCEAN TEMPS STILL MOSTLY IN THE HIGH 50S, THAT
SEA BREEZE WILL CUT INTO THE TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT NEAR THE
COAST. [DISC]

Long term (Thursday–Sunday)… 05/2:00pm. ∨

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...05/200 PM. [DISC]

Still a fair amount of uncertainty for the end of the week into next weekend, though the only impacts would potentially be cooler temperatures than currently forecast and likely a faster return of the marine layer. Deterministic models are favoring a low pressure system dropping into the northern Rockies Wednesday and then retrograding back to the Great Basin Thursday–Saturday. However, model clusters are mixed but with more solutions favoring a continued warmer pattern with ridging along the West Coast. There should at least be a light onshore trend for the latter half of the week that should nudge temperatures slowly downward. If some of these deeper trough solutions pan out temperatures would be several degrees cooler than expected. But no rain is is expected this week or for the foreseeable future. ∨

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH THE ONLY IMPACTS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND LIKELY A FASTER RETURN OF
THE MARINE LAYER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FAVORING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THEN
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE GREAT BASIN THU-SAT. HOWEVER, MODEL
CLUSTERS ARE MIXED BUT WITH MORE SOLUTIONS FAVORING A CONTINUED
WARMER PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE A LIGHT ONSHORE TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
THAT SHOULD NUDGE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWNWARD. IF SOME OF THESE
DEEPER TROUGH SOLUTIONS PAN OUT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. BUT NO RAIN IS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
OR FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. [DISC]

Aviation. 05/1924Z [12:24pm PDT]. ∨

.AVIATION...05/1924Z. [AVIA]

At 1835Z [11:35am PDT] at KLAX [Los Angeles CA], there was no marine layer nor inversion. There was a moist layer up to 5800 ft. ∨

AT 1835Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION. THERE
WAS A MOIST LAYER UP TO 5800 FT. [AVI2]

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Timing of wind changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and +/- 5 kt [6 mph] gusts. There is a 20% chance of IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]-VLIFR [Very Low Instrument Flight Rules] conditions for KPRB [Paso Robles CA], KSMX [Santa Maria CA], and KSBP [San Luis Obispo CA] 08Z [1am PDT]-17Z [10am PDT], and 20–30% chance of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings at KSMO [Santa Monica CA], KLAX [Los Angeles CA], KLGB [Long Beach CA], KBUR [Burbank CA], and KVNY [Van Nuys CA] 10Z [3am PDT]-16Z [9am PDT]. Gusty W to NW winds will affect much of the region through this evening with areas of low-level wind shear, turbulence and moderate up and down drafts. ∨

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. TIMING OF WIND CHANGES COULD
BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS, AND +/- 5 KT GUSTS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
OF IFR- VLIFR CONDS FOR KPRB, KSMX, AND KSBP 08Z-17Z, AND 20-30%
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KSMO, KLAX, KLGB, KBUR, AND KVNY 10Z-16Z.
GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THRU THIS
EVENING WITH AREAS OF LLWS, TURBULENCE AND MDT UDDF. [AVI2]

KLAX [Los Angeles CA]… moderate confidence in TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast]. There is a 20–30% chance of broken 018–025 ceilings 10Z [3am PDT]-16Z [9am PDT] Monday. There is a 20% chance of northerly cross winds to 12–18 kt [14–21 mph] from 02Z [7pm PDT]-07Z [12am PDT], and a 20% chance of an E wind component of 7–8 kt [8–9 mph] 10Z [3am PDT]-17Z [10am PDT] Monday. ∨

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
BKN018-025 CIGS 10Z-16Z MON. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF NORTHERLY
CROSS WINDS TO 12-18 KT FROM 02Z-07Z, AND A 20% CHANCE OF AN E
WIND COMPONENT OF 7-8 KT 10Z-17Z MON. [AVI2]

KBUR [Burbank CA]… moderate confidence in TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast]. There is a 20–30% chance of broken 018–025 ceilings 10Z [3am PDT]-16Z [9am PDT] Monday. There is a 30% chance of NW wind gusts to 25 kt [29 mph] from 16Z [9am PDT]-02Z [7pm PDT] Monday. ∨

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
BKN018-025 CIGS 10Z-16Z MON. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM 16Z-02Z MON. [AVI2]

Marine. 05/9:16am. ∨

.MARINE...05/916 AM. [AVIA]

In the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. In the southern two zones (PZZ673/676), there is a 70–80% chance of winds increasing to gale force levels this afternoon and continuing through late tonight. Elsewhere and otherwise, Small Craft Advisory (Small Craft Advisory) level winds (and seas at times) are expected through Wednesday night, with a 40% chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions (mainly seas) continuing Thursday. There is a 20% chance of gale force wind gusts across the waters south of Point Sal [Santa Maria CA] on Monday afternoon into Monday night, and a 50% chance for all outer waters Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday morning. ∨

IN THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
IN THE SOUTHERN TWO ZONES (PZZ673/676), THERE IS A 70-80% CHANCE
OF WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THRU LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS (AND SEAS AT TIMES) ARE EXPECTED THRU
WED NIGHT, WITH A 40% CHANCE OF SCA CONDS (MAINLY SEAS) CONTINUING
THU. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL ON MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT, AND A
50% CHANCE FOR ALL OUTER WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THU NIGHT THRU SAT
MORNING. [AVI2]

For the inner waters N of Pt Sal [Santa Maria CA], moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Through Wednesday night, winds are expected to reach Small Craft Advisory levels during the afternoon/evening hours. Seas may remain at or above Small Craft Advisory levels Monday night through Wednesday morning, even when the winds decrease. Then, conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday morning. ∨

FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THRU WED NIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA
LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS. SEAS MAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING, EVEN WHEN THE WINDS
DECREASE. THEN, CONDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THU NIGHT
THRU SAT MORNING. [AVI2]

In the inner waters S of Pt Conception [Santa Barbara CA], moderate confidence in the forecast. Expect Small Craft Advisory level winds to increase to gales this afternoon into tonight across the SBA [Santa Barbara CA] Channel (50–60% chance), from anacapa island to Malibu (40–50% chance), and across the western portion of the southern inner waters (50–60% chance). Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through late tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely (70% chance) across the western SBA [Santa Barbara CA] Channel during the late afternoon through late night hours Monday and Tuesday, with a 30–40% chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions during these times in the eastern portion of the SBA [Santa Barbara CA] Channel and western portions of the southern inner waters. ∨

IN THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT SCA LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL (50-60% CHANCE),
FROM ANACAPA ISLAND TO MALIBU (40-50% CHANCE), AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS (50-60% CHANCE).
ELSEWHERE, SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU LATE TONIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE
LIKELY (70% CHANCE) ACROSS THE WESTERN SBA CHANNEL DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON THRU LATE NIGHT HOURS MON AND TUE, WITH A 30-40%
CHANCE OF SCA CONDS DURING THESE TIMES IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE SBA CHANNEL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. [AVI2]

LOX [Los Angeles/Oxnard CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories

California: Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9pm PDT this evening for zones 87–340–341–346>348–354–355–362–366–381–383. (see LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3am PDT Monday for zones 349>353–376>378. (see LAXNPWLOX). PZ…Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9pm PDT this evening for Zone 645. (see LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3pm PDT this afternoon for zones 650–655–673–676. (see LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3am PDT Monday for zones 650–655–673–676. (see LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Monday for Zone 670. (see LAXMWWLOX). ∨

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 87-340-341-346>348-354-355-362-366-381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 349>353-376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 650-655-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
650-655-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX). [WARN]

Public: MW; Aviation: Lund/DB; Marine: DB/Lund; Synopsis: MW ∨

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...LUND/DB
MARINE...DB/LUND
SYNOPSIS...MW [CRED]

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES [LINK]

EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX [LINK]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KLOX [Los Angeles/Oxna CA] 052139 AFDLOX ∨ FXUS66 KLOX 052139 AFDLOX [HEAD] Updated National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 2:39pm PDT Sun May 5 2024 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 239 PM PDT SUN MAY 5 2024 [HEAD] Synopsis. 05/1:14pm. ∨ .SYNOPSIS...05/114 PM. [DISC] A cold storm system has shifted east today, leaving cooler temperatures and gusty west to northwest winds. A warming trend will begin Monday and continue through Wednesday, then little change into next weekend. Gusty northerly winds are expected at times, especially in the mountains and in southern Santa Barbara County. ∨ A COLD STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST TODAY, LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN LITTLE CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. [DISC] Short term (today–Wednesday)… 05/1:41pm. ∨ .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...05/141 PM. [DISC] The storm has passed but it has left behind some cool and blustery winds across the area, especially near the coast as well as the mountains and Antelope Valley. Winds are expected to settle down in most areas overnight, however, gusty northerly flow will continue across the area through mid week and chances are high that Wind Advisories will be needed most of if not all days, at least for the late afternoon and overnight hours across in southern Santa Barbara County and possibly in the I-5 corridor as well. ∨ THE STORM HAS PASSED BUT IT HAS LEFT BEHIND SOME COOL AND BLUSTERY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AND CHANCES ARE HIGH THAT WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED MOST OF IF NOT ALL DAYS, AT LEAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS IN SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND POSSIBLY IN THE I5 CORRIDOR AS WELL. [DISC] Temperatures will turn warmer Monday (especially inland) as heights rise and offshore flow creates some downslope warming. This will also either eliminate or at least minimize any marine layer return. High temps should creep back into the lower 80s across the warmer valleys Monday, and likely mid 80s Tuesday/Wednesday as a high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific nudges closer to the coastline. Not quite as warm at the coast which, despite the light offshore flow, will still get a decent sea breeze each afternoon. And with ocean temps still mostly in the high 50s, that sea breeze will cut into the temperatures quite a bit near the coast. ∨ TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER MONDAY (ESPECIALLY INLAND) AS HEIGHTS RISE AND OFFSHORE FLOW CREATES SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. THIS WILL ALSO EITHER ELIMINATE OR AT LEAST MINIMIZE ANY MARINE LAYER RETURN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD CREEP BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WARMER VALLEYS MONDAY, AND LIKELY MID 80S TUE/WED AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NUDGES CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. NOT QUITE AS WARM AT THE COAST WHICH, DESPITE THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW, WILL STILL GET A DECENT SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. AND WITH OCEAN TEMPS STILL MOSTLY IN THE HIGH 50S, THAT SEA BREEZE WILL CUT INTO THE TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT NEAR THE COAST. [DISC] Long term (Thursday–Sunday)… 05/2:00pm. ∨ .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...05/200 PM. [DISC] Still a fair amount of uncertainty for the end of the week into next weekend, though the only impacts would potentially be cooler temperatures than currently forecast and likely a faster return of the marine layer. Deterministic models are favoring a low pressure system dropping into the northern Rockies Wednesday and then retrograding back to the Great Basin Thursday–Saturday. However, model clusters are mixed but with more solutions favoring a continued warmer pattern with ridging along the West Coast. There should at least be a light onshore trend for the latter half of the week that should nudge temperatures slowly downward. If some of these deeper trough solutions pan out temperatures would be several degrees cooler than expected. But no rain is is expected this week or for the foreseeable future. ∨ STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH THE ONLY IMPACTS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND LIKELY A FASTER RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FAVORING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THEN RETROGRADING BACK TO THE GREAT BASIN THU-SAT. HOWEVER, MODEL CLUSTERS ARE MIXED BUT WITH MORE SOLUTIONS FAVORING A CONTINUED WARMER PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A LIGHT ONSHORE TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THAT SHOULD NUDGE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWNWARD. IF SOME OF THESE DEEPER TROUGH SOLUTIONS PAN OUT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. BUT NO RAIN IS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK OR FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. [DISC] Aviation. 05/1924Z [12:24pm PDT]. ∨ .AVIATION...05/1924Z. [AVIA] At 1835Z [11:35am PDT] at KLAX [Los Angeles CA], there was no marine layer nor inversion. There was a moist layer up to 5800 ft. ∨ AT 1835Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER NOR INVERSION. THERE WAS A MOIST LAYER UP TO 5800 FT. [AVI2] Moderate to high confidence in TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]. Timing of wind changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and +/- 5 kt [6 mph] gusts. There is a 20% chance of IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]-VLIFR [Very Low Instrument Flight Rules] conditions for KPRB [Paso Robles CA], KSMX [Santa Maria CA], and KSBP [San Luis Obispo CA] 08Z [1am PDT]-17Z [10am PDT], and 20–30% chance of MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] ceilings at KSMO [Santa Monica CA], KLAX [Los Angeles CA], KLGB [Long Beach CA], KBUR [Burbank CA], and KVNY [Van Nuys CA] 10Z [3am PDT]-16Z [9am PDT]. Gusty W to NW winds will affect much of the region through this evening with areas of low-level wind shear, turbulence and moderate up and down drafts. ∨ MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. TIMING OF WIND CHANGES COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS, AND +/- 5 KT GUSTS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF IFR- VLIFR CONDS FOR KPRB, KSMX, AND KSBP 08Z-17Z, AND 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KSMO, KLAX, KLGB, KBUR, AND KVNY 10Z-16Z. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THRU THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF LLWS, TURBULENCE AND MDT UDDF. [AVI2] KLAX [Los Angeles CA]… moderate confidence in TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast]. There is a 20–30% chance of broken 018–025 ceilings 10Z [3am PDT]-16Z [9am PDT] Monday. There is a 20% chance of northerly cross winds to 12–18 kt [14–21 mph] from 02Z [7pm PDT]-07Z [12am PDT], and a 20% chance of an E wind component of 7–8 kt [8–9 mph] 10Z [3am PDT]-17Z [10am PDT] Monday. ∨ KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF BKN018-025 CIGS 10Z-16Z MON. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF NORTHERLY CROSS WINDS TO 12-18 KT FROM 02Z-07Z, AND A 20% CHANCE OF AN E WIND COMPONENT OF 7-8 KT 10Z-17Z MON. [AVI2] KBUR [Burbank CA]… moderate confidence in TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast]. There is a 20–30% chance of broken 018–025 ceilings 10Z [3am PDT]-16Z [9am PDT] Monday. There is a 30% chance of NW wind gusts to 25 kt [29 mph] from 16Z [9am PDT]-02Z [7pm PDT] Monday. ∨ KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF BKN018-025 CIGS 10Z-16Z MON. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM 16Z-02Z MON. [AVI2] Marine. 05/9:16am. ∨ .MARINE...05/916 AM. [AVIA] In the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. In the southern two zones (PZZ673/676), there is a 70–80% chance of winds increasing to gale force levels this afternoon and continuing through late tonight. Elsewhere and otherwise, Small Craft Advisory (Small Craft Advisory) level winds (and seas at times) are expected through Wednesday night, with a 40% chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions (mainly seas) continuing Thursday. There is a 20% chance of gale force wind gusts across the waters south of Point Sal [Santa Maria CA] on Monday afternoon into Monday night, and a 50% chance for all outer waters Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday morning. ∨ IN THE OUTER WATERS, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. IN THE SOUTHERN TWO ZONES (PZZ673/676), THERE IS A 70-80% CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THRU LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS (AND SEAS AT TIMES) ARE EXPECTED THRU WED NIGHT, WITH A 40% CHANCE OF SCA CONDS (MAINLY SEAS) CONTINUING THU. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SAL ON MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT, AND A 50% CHANCE FOR ALL OUTER WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THU NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING. [AVI2] For the inner waters N of Pt Sal [Santa Maria CA], moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Through Wednesday night, winds are expected to reach Small Craft Advisory levels during the afternoon/evening hours. Seas may remain at or above Small Craft Advisory levels Monday night through Wednesday morning, even when the winds decrease. Then, conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday morning. ∨ FOR THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THRU WED NIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS. SEAS MAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING, EVEN WHEN THE WINDS DECREASE. THEN, CONDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THU NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING. [AVI2] In the inner waters S of Pt Conception [Santa Barbara CA], moderate confidence in the forecast. Expect Small Craft Advisory level winds to increase to gales this afternoon into tonight across the SBA [Santa Barbara CA] Channel (50–60% chance), from anacapa island to Malibu (40–50% chance), and across the western portion of the southern inner waters (50–60% chance). Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through late tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely (70% chance) across the western SBA [Santa Barbara CA] Channel during the late afternoon through late night hours Monday and Tuesday, with a 30–40% chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions during these times in the eastern portion of the SBA [Santa Barbara CA] Channel and western portions of the southern inner waters. ∨ IN THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT SCA LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SBA CHANNEL (50-60% CHANCE), FROM ANACAPA ISLAND TO MALIBU (40-50% CHANCE), AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS (50-60% CHANCE). ELSEWHERE, SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU LATE TONIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY (70% CHANCE) ACROSS THE WESTERN SBA CHANNEL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THRU LATE NIGHT HOURS MON AND TUE, WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF SCA CONDS DURING THESE TIMES IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SBA CHANNEL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. [AVI2] LOX [Los Angeles/Oxnard CA] Watches/Warnings/Advisories California: Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9pm PDT this evening for zones 87–340–341–346>348–354–355–362–366–381–383. (see LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3am PDT Monday for zones 349>353–376>378. (see LAXNPWLOX). PZ…Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9pm PDT this evening for Zone 645. (see LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3pm PDT this afternoon for zones 650–655–673–676. (see LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3am PDT Monday for zones 650–655–673–676. (see LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3am PDT Monday for Zone 670. (see LAXMWWLOX). ∨ .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 87-340-341-346>348-354-355-362-366-381-383. (SEE LAXNPWLOX). WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES 349>353-376>378. (SEE LAXNPWLOX). PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 650-655-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX). GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONES 650-655-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 670. (SEE LAXMWWLOX). [WARN] Public: MW; Aviation: Lund/DB; Marine: DB/Lund; Synopsis: MW ∨ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...LUND/DB MARINE...DB/LUND SYNOPSIS...MW [CRED] WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES [LINK] EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT: HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/GHWO?WFO=LOX [LINK]	Point Forecast Los Angeles CA 05 May 04:47pm PDT Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 49°. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming east 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 72°. Light and variable wind becoming SW 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52°. SW wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 75°. Light and variable wind becoming SW 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55°. SW wind 5 to 15 mph becoming east after midnight. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 77°. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 56°. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 77°. Thursday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°. Friday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 77°. Friday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56°. Saturday Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 76°. Saturday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 57°. Sunday Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 74°. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 49. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming east 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 72. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming east after midnight. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 77. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 77. Thursday Night Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Friday Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Friday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Saturday Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Saturday Night Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Sunday Patchy fog. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 74.
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