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FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 070014 AFDMTR ∨

FXUS66 KMTR 070014
AFDMTR [HEAD]

National Weather Service San Francisco California 5:14pm PDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ∨

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
514 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [HEAD]

New update, aviation. ∨

...NEW UPDATE, AVIATION... [DISC]

Synopsis. Issued at 12:14pm PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [DISC]

Light rain this evening, hazardous beach conditions through Monday, and warm and dry conditions the rest of the week. ∨

LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING, HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY, AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK. [DISC]

Update. Issued at 4:38pm PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 438 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [DISC]

The weak cold front is currently located in far Northern California with steady prefrontal rain north of Eureka area. As this boundary slides south, the tail end will bring overcast skies to the Bay Area and light prefrontal precipitation mainly to the North Bay and less so to the peninsula overnight into Monday morning. The forecast confidence is fairly high that the bulk of the rain will be done by sunrise, and won't reach much further south than San Jose. This front is pretty weak, and the cold air behind it will not be enough to trigger much instability. In fact the 850–700 lapse rate [The rate of change of an atmospheric variable, usually temperature, with height. A steep lapse rate implies a rapid decrease in temperature with height (a sign of instability) and a steepening lapse rate implies that destabilization is occurring.] is will be a pathetic 2°C/km and the 500 mb temperature will actually remain higher than normal (-14°C vs –17°C). With these stats, we'll be lucky to even get fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon. In other words, there is no threat of thunderstorms tomorrow. The temperature will be a couple degrees cooler than today however, mainly due to the increased cloud cover. ∨

THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH STEADY PREFRONTAL RAIN NORTH OF EUREKA AREA. AS
THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH, THE TAIL END WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES
TO THE BAY AREA AND LIGHT PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE
NORTH BAY AND LESS SO TO THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE, AND WONT REACH MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN SAN JOSE. THIS FRONT IS PRETTY WEAK, AND THE COLD AIR
BEHIND IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MUCH INSTABILITY. IN FACT
THE 850-700 LAPSE RATE IS WILL BE A PATHETIC 2 C/KM AND THE 500
MB TEMPERATURE WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL (-14C VS
-17C). WITH THESE STATS, WE`LL BE LUCKY TO EVEN GET FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE IS NO
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY HOWEVER, MAINLY DUE TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. [DISC]

Short term. (this evening through Monday) issued at 12:14pm PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨

.SHORT TERM...
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [DISC]

KMUX [Santa Clara/88D CA] has been switched over to precipitation mode as rain begins to drift into our northernmost marine zone as the responsible weak cold front continues to slowly trek towards the West Coast. As a result, expect an increase in high cloud cover throughout the day. Sensible weather will likely feel cooler than yesterday due to an increase in wind and the clouds preventing the sun from feeling as intense. Light rain can be expected in the North Bay this evening and overnight with totals up to a quarter of an inch. Sites south of the Golden Gate Bridge may be able to collect a few hundredths with the help of orographic lift. Of greatest importance over the next 36 hours is the beach hazards statement in effect for all Pacific coast beaches. ∨

KMUX HAS BEEN SWITCHED OVER TO PRECIPITATION MODE AS RAIN BEGINS TO
DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST MARINE ZONE AS THE RESPONSIBLE WEAK COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL LIKELY FEEL COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
WIND AND THE CLOUDS PREVENTING THE SUN FROM FEELING AS INTENSE.
LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH TOTALS UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SITES SOUTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO COLLECT A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THE
HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. OF GREATEST IMPORTANCE OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS IS THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR ALL PACIFIC
COAST BEACHES. [DISC]

Long term. (Monday night through next Saturday) issued at 12:14pm PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [DISC]

Monday will have the (relatively) coldest conditions of the week as cold air funnels in behind the cold front, but the warming trend will quickly resume Tuesday as heights rise and surface high pressure builds across the west. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week thanks to the longwave ridge axis that will be centered over our region. Thursday will begin the gradual cooling trend with a dry, weak cold front slated to sweep across the region on Friday. For context, we have had warmer days this year and no records are expected to be broken, that's not the most important thing though. Heatrisk is. Minor heatrisk will be present every day with Wednesday through Friday showing the most widespread impacts for coastal and interior areas of the Bay Area and Central Coast. ∨

MONDAY WILL HAVE THE (RELATIVELY) COLDEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEK AS
COLD AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT THE WARMING TREND
WILL QUICKLY RESUME TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK THANKS TO THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL BE
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN THE GRADUAL COOLING
TREND WITH A DRY, WEAK COLD FRONT SLATED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR CONTEXT, WE HAVE HAD WARMER DAYS THIS YEAR
AND NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN, THAT`S NOT THE MOST
IMPORTANT THING THOUGH. HEATRISK IS. MINOR HEATRISK WILL BE
PRESENT EVERY DAY WITH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOWING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FOR COASTAL AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE BAY AREA
AND CENTRAL COAST. [DISC]

NWS [National Weather Service] minor heatrisk: ∨

NWS MINOR HEATRISK: [DISC]

- heat of this type is tolerated by most; however there is a minor risk for extremely heat-sensitive groups to experience negative heat-related health effects. ∨

- HEAT OF THIS TYPE IS TOLERATED BY MOST; HOWEVER THERE IS A MINOR RISK
FOR EXTREMELY HEAT-SENSITIVE GROUPS TO EXPERIENCE NEGATIVE
HEAT- RELATED HEALTH EFFECTS. [DISC]

- the risk is primarily for those who are extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. ∨

- THE RISK IS PRIMARILY FOR THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR
ADEQUATE HYDRATION. [DISC]

- very common heat. ∨

- VERY COMMON HEAT. [DISC]

- for those at risk, actions that can be taken: increase hydration, reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade when the sun is strongest, and open windows at night and use fans to bring cooler air inside buildings. ∨

- FOR THOSE AT RISK, ACTIONS THAT CAN BE TAKEN: INCREASE
HYDRATION, REDUCE TIME SPENT OUTDOORS OR STAY IN THE SHADE WHEN
THE SUN IS STRONGEST, AND OPEN WINDOWS AT NIGHT AND USE FANS TO
BRING COOLER AIR INSIDE BUILDINGS. [DISC]

Aviation. (00Z [5pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 4:38pm PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 438 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [AVIA]

Widespread VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions will persist this afternoon, but high clouds signal a change in the pattern. A weak cold front is currently moving through far Northern California and will slide across the Bay Area overnight into Monday morning. This front will bring widespread MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]-IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings to the Bay Area and Central Coast, as well as some light rain to the North Bay and possibly SF Peninsula early Monday morning. Winds will also shift to southerly as the front approaches, before switching back to NW after frontal passage. ∨

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HIGH
CLOUDS SIGNAL A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE BAY AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS TO THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AND POSSIBLY SF
PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO NW AFTER FROPA. [AVI2]

Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… while there is a small chance of light rain reaching the terminal early Monday morning, I decided to omit it from the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] in order to focus on the timing of the ceiling drop and wind shift. There is a 75% chance of ceilings dropping below 3,000 feet and remaining there for several hours. On the other hand, there is only a 25% chance of them dropping below 1,000 feet. Conditions will improve through the morning hours as the winds return to a NW direction and the ceiling gradually lifts and breaks up. ∨

VICINITY OF SFO...WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
REACHING THE TERMINAL EARLY MONDAY MORNING, I DECIDED TO OMIT IT
FROM THE TAF IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING OF THE CEILING DROP
AND WIND SHIFT. THERE IS A 75% CHANCE OF CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW
3,000 FEET AND REMAINING THERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THERE IS ONLY A 25% CHANCE OF THEM DROPPING BELOW 1,000
FEET. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
WINDS RETURN TO A NW DIRECTION AND THE CEILING GRADUALLY LIFTS
AND BREAKS UP. [AVI2]

SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2]

Monterey Bay terminals… high confidence ceilings at MRY [Monterey CA] and SNS [Salinas CA] will will drop to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] overnight, with a moderate confidence MRY [Monterey CA] will drop to IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]. There is virtually no chance for any rain to make it this far south and the ceilings will lift through the late morning. ∨

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...HIGH CONFIDENCE CEILINGS AT MRY AND SNS
WILL WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT, WITH A MODERATE CONFIDENCE MRY
WILL DROP TO IFR. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN TO
MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH AND THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. [AVI2]

Marine. (today through Friday) issued at 8:40am PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨

.MARINE...
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 AM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [AVIA]

A weak cold front will slowly move eastward across the coastal waters later today and tonight, bringing light rain to the northern waters. A WNW moderate to rough swell will reach the coastal waters today and persist through Monday before gradually abating through the week. ∨

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTHERN WATERS. A WNW MODERATE TO ROUGH SWELL WILL REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
ABATING THROUGH THE WEEK. [AVI2]

Beaches… issued at 4:18am PDT Sun April 5 2025 ∨

.BEACHES...
ISSUED AT 418 AM PDT SUN APR 5 2025 [DISC]

A beach hazard statement remains in effect for the entire coastline. A long period swell is forecast to reach the coast this morning. Forerunners of 18–20 second arrive close to sunrise. Swell periods are forecast to diminish through the day to Monday, but swell heights will gradually increase. Therefore, initially sneaker waves will be the main threat before switching to larger shore break and rip currents. Beachgoers should be mindful Sunday and Monday given potential hazards. Beachgoers should stay off of jetties and rocks, keep pets on a leash, wear a life Jacket, and never turn your back on the ocean! ∨

A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
COASTLINE. A LONG PERIOD SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST
THIS MORNING. FORERUNNERS OF 18-20 SEC ARRIVE CLOSE TO SUNRISE.
SWELL PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO MONDAY,
BUT SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THEREFORE, INITIALLY
SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BEFORE SWITCHING TO LARGER
SHORE BREAK AND RIP CURRENTS. BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE MINDFUL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY GIVEN POTENTIAL HAZARDS. BEACHGOERS SHOULD STAY OFF OF
JETTIES AND ROCKS, KEEP PETS ON A LEASH, WEAR A LIFE JACKET, AND
NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! [DISC]

MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories

California: beach hazards statement through Monday evening for CAZ006–505–509–529–530. ∨

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530. [WARN]

Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory from 9pm this evening to 9am PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM. [WRN2]

Small Craft Advisory until 9pm PDT Monday for Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]. ∨

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM. [WRN2]

Short term…sarment long term…sarment aviation…flynn marine…dialh ∨

SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...DIALH [WRN2]

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X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]

Weather NWS glossary About NWS point forecasts Hourly Weather Graph Long-range forecast Radar Satellite Max Temps Graphical Forecast	Area Forecast Discussion FXUS66 KMTR [Monterey CA] 070014 AFDMTR ∨ FXUS66 KMTR 070014 AFDMTR [HEAD] National Weather Service San Francisco California 5:14pm PDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ∨ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 514 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [HEAD] New update, aviation. ∨ ...NEW UPDATE, AVIATION... [DISC] Synopsis. Issued at 12:14pm PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨ .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1214 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [DISC] Light rain this evening, hazardous beach conditions through Monday, and warm and dry conditions the rest of the week. ∨ LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING, HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY, AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK. [DISC] Update. Issued at 4:38pm PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨ .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 438 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [DISC] The weak cold front is currently located in far Northern California with steady prefrontal rain north of Eureka area. As this boundary slides south, the tail end will bring overcast skies to the Bay Area and light prefrontal precipitation mainly to the North Bay and less so to the peninsula overnight into Monday morning. The forecast confidence is fairly high that the bulk of the rain will be done by sunrise, and won't reach much further south than San Jose. This front is pretty weak, and the cold air behind it will not be enough to trigger much instability. In fact the 850–700 lapse rate [The rate of change of an atmospheric variable, usually temperature, with height. A steep lapse rate implies a rapid decrease in temperature with height (a sign of instability) and a steepening lapse rate implies that destabilization is occurring.] is will be a pathetic 2°C/km and the 500 mb temperature will actually remain higher than normal (-14°C vs –17°C). With these stats, we'll be lucky to even get fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon. In other words, there is no threat of thunderstorms tomorrow. The temperature will be a couple degrees cooler than today however, mainly due to the increased cloud cover. ∨ THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH STEADY PREFRONTAL RAIN NORTH OF EUREKA AREA. AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH, THE TAIL END WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES TO THE BAY AREA AND LIGHT PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE NORTH BAY AND LESS SO TO THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE, AND WONT REACH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN SAN JOSE. THIS FRONT IS PRETTY WEAK, AND THE COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MUCH INSTABILITY. IN FACT THE 850-700 LAPSE RATE IS WILL BE A PATHETIC 2 C/KM AND THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL (-14C VS -17C). WITH THESE STATS, WE`LL BE LUCKY TO EVEN GET FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE IS NO THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY HOWEVER, MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. [DISC] Short term. (this evening through Monday) issued at 12:14pm PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨ .SHORT TERM... (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 1214 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [DISC] KMUX [Santa Clara/88D CA] has been switched over to precipitation mode as rain begins to drift into our northernmost marine zone as the responsible weak cold front continues to slowly trek towards the West Coast. As a result, expect an increase in high cloud cover throughout the day. Sensible weather will likely feel cooler than yesterday due to an increase in wind and the clouds preventing the sun from feeling as intense. Light rain can be expected in the North Bay this evening and overnight with totals up to a quarter of an inch. Sites south of the Golden Gate Bridge may be able to collect a few hundredths with the help of orographic lift. Of greatest importance over the next 36 hours is the beach hazards statement in effect for all Pacific coast beaches. ∨ KMUX HAS BEEN SWITCHED OVER TO PRECIPITATION MODE AS RAIN BEGINS TO DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST MARINE ZONE AS THE RESPONSIBLE WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY FEEL COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN WIND AND THE CLOUDS PREVENTING THE SUN FROM FEELING AS INTENSE. LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH BAY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH TOTALS UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SITES SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO COLLECT A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. OF GREATEST IMPORTANCE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES. [DISC] Long term. (Monday night through next Saturday) issued at 12:14pm PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨ .LONG TERM... (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 1214 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [DISC] Monday will have the (relatively) coldest conditions of the week as cold air funnels in behind the cold front, but the warming trend will quickly resume Tuesday as heights rise and surface high pressure builds across the west. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week thanks to the longwave ridge axis that will be centered over our region. Thursday will begin the gradual cooling trend with a dry, weak cold front slated to sweep across the region on Friday. For context, we have had warmer days this year and no records are expected to be broken, that's not the most important thing though. Heatrisk is. Minor heatrisk will be present every day with Wednesday through Friday showing the most widespread impacts for coastal and interior areas of the Bay Area and Central Coast. ∨ MONDAY WILL HAVE THE (RELATIVELY) COLDEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEK AS COLD AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT THE WARMING TREND WILL QUICKLY RESUME TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THANKS TO THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR REGION. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN THE GRADUAL COOLING TREND WITH A DRY, WEAK COLD FRONT SLATED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR CONTEXT, WE HAVE HAD WARMER DAYS THIS YEAR AND NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN, THAT`S NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING THOUGH. HEATRISK IS. MINOR HEATRISK WILL BE PRESENT EVERY DAY WITH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOWING THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FOR COASTAL AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. [DISC] NWS [National Weather Service] minor heatrisk: ∨ NWS MINOR HEATRISK: [DISC] - heat of this type is tolerated by most; however there is a minor risk for extremely heat-sensitive groups to experience negative heat-related health effects. ∨ - HEAT OF THIS TYPE IS TOLERATED BY MOST; HOWEVER THERE IS A MINOR RISK FOR EXTREMELY HEAT-SENSITIVE GROUPS TO EXPERIENCE NEGATIVE HEAT- RELATED HEALTH EFFECTS. [DISC] - the risk is primarily for those who are extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. ∨ - THE RISK IS PRIMARILY FOR THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. [DISC] - very common heat. ∨ - VERY COMMON HEAT. [DISC] - for those at risk, actions that can be taken: increase hydration, reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade when the sun is strongest, and open windows at night and use fans to bring cooler air inside buildings. ∨ - FOR THOSE AT RISK, ACTIONS THAT CAN BE TAKEN: INCREASE HYDRATION, REDUCE TIME SPENT OUTDOORS OR STAY IN THE SHADE WHEN THE SUN IS STRONGEST, AND OPEN WINDOWS AT NIGHT AND USE FANS TO BRING COOLER AIR INSIDE BUILDINGS. [DISC] Aviation. (00Z [5pm PDT] TAFs [Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts]) issued at 4:38pm PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨ .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 438 PM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [AVIA] Widespread VFR [Visual Flight Rules] conditions will persist this afternoon, but high clouds signal a change in the pattern. A weak cold front is currently moving through far Northern California and will slide across the Bay Area overnight into Monday morning. This front will bring widespread MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules]-IFR [Instrument Flight Rules] ceilings to the Bay Area and Central Coast, as well as some light rain to the North Bay and possibly SF Peninsula early Monday morning. Winds will also shift to southerly as the front approaches, before switching back to NW after frontal passage. ∨ WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HIGH CLOUDS SIGNAL A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE BAY AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS TO THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST, AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY AND POSSIBLY SF PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO NW AFTER FROPA. [AVI2] Vicinity of SFO [San Francisco CA]… while there is a small chance of light rain reaching the terminal early Monday morning, I decided to omit it from the TAF [Terminal Aerodrome Forecast] in order to focus on the timing of the ceiling drop and wind shift. There is a 75% chance of ceilings dropping below 3,000 feet and remaining there for several hours. On the other hand, there is only a 25% chance of them dropping below 1,000 feet. Conditions will improve through the morning hours as the winds return to a NW direction and the ceiling gradually lifts and breaks up. ∨ VICINITY OF SFO...WHILE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE TERMINAL EARLY MONDAY MORNING, I DECIDED TO OMIT IT FROM THE TAF IN ORDER TO FOCUS ON THE TIMING OF THE CEILING DROP AND WIND SHIFT. THERE IS A 75% CHANCE OF CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 3,000 FEET AND REMAINING THERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS ONLY A 25% CHANCE OF THEM DROPPING BELOW 1,000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE WINDS RETURN TO A NW DIRECTION AND THE CEILING GRADUALLY LIFTS AND BREAKS UP. [AVI2] SFO [San Francisco CA] bridge approach… similar to SFO [San Francisco CA]. ∨ SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO. [AVI2] Monterey Bay terminals… high confidence ceilings at MRY [Monterey CA] and SNS [Salinas CA] will will drop to MVFR [Marginal Visual Flight Rules] overnight, with a moderate confidence MRY [Monterey CA] will drop to IFR [Instrument Flight Rules]. There is virtually no chance for any rain to make it this far south and the ceilings will lift through the late morning. ∨ MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...HIGH CONFIDENCE CEILINGS AT MRY AND SNS WILL WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT, WITH A MODERATE CONFIDENCE MRY WILL DROP TO IFR. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH AND THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. [AVI2] Marine. (today through Friday) issued at 8:40am PDT Sun April 6 2025 ∨ .MARINE... (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 840 AM PDT SUN APR 6 2025 [AVIA] A weak cold front will slowly move eastward across the coastal waters later today and tonight, bringing light rain to the northern waters. A WNW moderate to rough swell will reach the coastal waters today and persist through Monday before gradually abating through the week. ∨ A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN WATERS. A WNW MODERATE TO ROUGH SWELL WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY ABATING THROUGH THE WEEK. [AVI2] Beaches… issued at 4:18am PDT Sun April 5 2025 ∨ .BEACHES... ISSUED AT 418 AM PDT SUN APR 5 2025 [DISC] A beach hazard statement remains in effect for the entire coastline. A long period swell is forecast to reach the coast this morning. Forerunners of 18–20 second arrive close to sunrise. Swell periods are forecast to diminish through the day to Monday, but swell heights will gradually increase. Therefore, initially sneaker waves will be the main threat before switching to larger shore break and rip currents. Beachgoers should be mindful Sunday and Monday given potential hazards. Beachgoers should stay off of jetties and rocks, keep pets on a leash, wear a life Jacket, and never turn your back on the ocean! ∨ A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE. A LONG PERIOD SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST THIS MORNING. FORERUNNERS OF 18-20 SEC ARRIVE CLOSE TO SUNRISE. SWELL PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO MONDAY, BUT SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THEREFORE, INITIALLY SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BEFORE SWITCHING TO LARGER SHORE BREAK AND RIP CURRENTS. BEACHGOERS SHOULD BE MINDFUL SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN POTENTIAL HAZARDS. BEACHGOERS SHOULD STAY OFF OF JETTIES AND ROCKS, KEEP PETS ON A LEASH, WEAR A LIFE JACKET, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! [DISC] MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories California: beach hazards statement through Monday evening for CAZ006–505–509–529–530. ∨ .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. [WARN] Pacific Ocean: Small Craft Advisory from 9pm this evening to 9am PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt [Pescadero CA] to Pt Pinos [Monterey CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]-Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 0–10 nm [11 miles]. ∨ PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0- 10 NM. [WRN2] Small Craft Advisory until 9pm PDT Monday for Pt Arena [Mendocino CA] to Pt Reyes [San Francisco CA] 10–60 nm [69 miles]. ∨ SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM. [WRN2] Short term…sarment long term…sarment aviation…flynn marine…dialh ∨ SHORT TERM...SARMENT LONG TERM....SARMENT AVIATION...FLYNN MARINE...DIALH [WRN2] VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO [LINK] Follow us on Facebook, x, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ∨ FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA X.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA [DISC]	Point Forecast Montara CA 06 Apr 05:15pm PDT Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51°. WSW wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south in the evening. Monday A 20% chance of rain before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59°. South wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°. WNW wind 5 to 7 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59°. WNW wind 6 to 11 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50°. NW wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 64°. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52°. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 62°. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52°. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 60°. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50°. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 58°. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49°. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 60°. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. West southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south in the evening. Monday A 20 percent chance of rain before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. South wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. West northwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. West northwest wind 6 to 11 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Northwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 64. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 58. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 60.
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